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Des Sullivan
Des Sullivan

QUEBEC APPEALS COURT BREAKS HQ STRANGLEHOLD ON MUSKRAT

Muskrat Falls

The
Decision by the Quebec Court of Appeal to overturn the Quebec
Superior Court and grant CFLco the right to sell power in excess of the “Annual
Energy Base” (AEB) seems to have reduced the province’s stress level. The obligations of CFLco in relation to the AEB is integral to the issue of water management and the abilty to efficiently run the Muskrat Falls plant. 


The
Annual Energy Base was established in the original Upper Churchill
Contract and states an amount of energy used to calculate minimum monthly
payments by HQ to CFLco (and “ensure(s) a certain degree of stable revenue for
CFLCo.”. This figure is also in dispute (footnote 53 of the Decision) but the
amount is thought to be 28.97 million MWh — the figure used in three successive
Nalcor Annual Reports.

The
Appeals Court Decision, drafted by Justice Jacques Chamberland — who is described
by one lawyer as “one of the most highly regarded jurists in the Province” of
Quebec — makes CFLco’s ability to manage
the water flows on the Churchill River possible (as long as the AEB is supplied to HQ).

Quebec Court of Appeal Justice  Jacques Chamberland


A
Water Management Agreement is fundamental to efficient power production when
there are two or more hydro plants operating on the same river. HQ had
instructed its Directors not to approve the WMA.

By
most accounts, the Appeals Court has given CFLco a clear victory though it must
be viewed in the context of the quantity of excess power available after the
AEB is satisfied. The Court stated that, under the terms of the Upper Churchill
Renewal Contract, Hydro Quebec is limited to certain amounts of electricity
rather than all of the output of the Upper Churchill plant (apart from the
300 MW Recall for domestic NL purposes and the 225 MW Twinco block for IOCC).  The relevant section of the Decsion reads:

“Hydro-Québec
does not have the exclusive right to purchase, and receive, all of the energy
produced by the Upper Churchill power plant,” Justice Jacques Chamberland
wrote. His conclusion read “… I would allow CFLco’s appeal in part and declare,
first, that HQ’s right to the energy produced by the
plant is limited annually to the value of the Annual Energy Base… and,
second, that, since September 1, 2016, there is nothing preventing CFLco from
disposing of the power associated not only with the Recapture and Twinco
blocks, but also with the energy produced over and above the energy
contemplated by the concept of Annual Energy Base, provided, however, that CFLco
satisfies its commitments to HQ.”

What
had occurred at the Appeals Court to effect such a different outcome than that
decided by the Trial Court?

The
Appellant Justice stated that the trial Judge had erred in “the
characterization of the [Upper Churchill] contract” which decision, he said,
“is not without its consequences.”

Essentially,
he concluded that the Trial Judge had, in treating both the original and the
Renewal Contract “as an inseparable contractual whole created the risk of
commingling the terms and conditions applicable to one period with those
applicable to the other…”  – in other words the original 40 year contract and the current or Renewal Contract. The Appeals
Court painstakingly compared the two and while
deferring to the Trial Judges on matters of fact, differed with their
interpretation of the Renewal Contract. 

Still,
questions remain. The Upper Churchill plant was designed for an average of 34.5
TWh; however, since its commissioning the plant has produced more than 41 TWh.
Sources state that a combination of good hydraulic and plant availability (good
maintenance) are key factors in achieving this record. There are also years
when the plant has produced less than 30 TWh, a figure very close to the
current AEB.

In
this context it is important to note that the Appeals Court confirmed HQ’s “… right
to an operational flexibility similar to that it enjoyed until August 31,
2016…” when the Renewal Contract took effect. Operational flexibility gives HQ
the right to schedule its power requirements according to a predetermined plan, incorporate seasonal changes, subject to certain obligations, and otherwise to postpone deliveries of power.

One
hydro engineer questions whether during years when production allows little
slack beyond the AEB implementation if a functional WMA is still possible.

Then,
too, there exists the likelihood of a further Appeal to the Supreme Court of
Canada, this time by Hydro Quebec, which exposes the Contract to other
interpretations.

There
are other issues worthy of note, three in particular:

1. The
AEB is important in part because it defines the amount of excess power
available and the latitude CFLco possesses to deal in power sales after HQ’s
“operational flexibility” requirements are met. Footnote 53 of the Decision
states that, “At the hearing, the parties told the Court that they were in
disagreement regarding the value of the Annual Energy Base as of September 1,
2016, although they had agreed, in May 1969, to set it at 31.5 billion kilowatt
hours (31.5 TWh) at the start of the first 40-year period.” The footnote also
describes the Court’s position, even if somewhat oddly: “This is a dispute we
are not required to rule on within the scope of the case presently before us
and which we hope the parties will be able to settle amicably.” Likely, CFLco
and HQ will have a few matters to discuss even when the legal dust settles.
2. The
Decision by the Appeals Court does nothing to excuse Nalcor or the Dunderdale
Government for having sanctioned the Muskrat Falls Project based on essentially
a fundamentally “fake” Water Management Agreement which it cooked up and which,
without the Quebec Appeals Court ruling, would have remained meaningless
Nalcor
knew, as soon as the Hydro Quebec Members on the CFLco Board refused to sign
off on the WMA, that a legal challenge was a certainty. They proceeded with project
sanction anyway, when more sober management would have sought judicial clarity
on the issue. It is a matter that the Commissioner will have to consider along
with $300 million in cost overruns — about which it failed to inform at least
some in Government – and the public – also prior to sanction. Later deceits may be adjudicated, too.
3. The
institutional lie: from the time critics called for a halt to Muskrat pending judicial clarity on the WMA, VP Gilbert Bennett could be heard stating that the
legal case and the WMA were totally unrelated. Of course, Bennett was all alone. Stan Marshall offered at least a
partial correction to Gilbert’s assertion when he told NTV following the Quebec
Superior Court Decision: “Would have been better if we had won. And there are
some issues but with a minimal amount of cooperation from Hydro Quebec, which I
fully expect to have, I think we can operate MF in the way it was designed to…” If Bennett was right, why was the Commission of Inquiry so careful that any comment on Water Management was restricted to a single in camera session? Wasn’t it because Nalcor had warned the Inquiry that public analysis and comment on water management issues might impact the Court case?


And what did Premier Ball say about the Appeal
Court’s Decision? He expressed relief stating: “We now know that we, as Newfoundlanders and
Labradorians, that CFLco now will be able to manage the water way. This
decision today gives CFLco the rights to manage water on the Upper Churchill,
therefore not having a negative impact on Muskrat Falls.” 


Strangely, he didn’t even mention Gilbert Bennett!
Des Sullivan
Des Sullivan
St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada Uncle Gnarley is hosted by Des Sullivan, of St. John's. He is a businessman engaged over three decades in real estate management and development companies and in retail. He is currently a Director of Dorset Investments Limited and Donovan Holdings Limited. During his early career he served as Executive Assistant to Premier's Frank D. Moores (1975-1979) and Brian Peckford (1979-1985). He also served as a Part-Time Board Member on the Canada-Newfoundland Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). Uncle Gnarley appears on the masthead representing serious and unambiguous positions on NL politics and public policy. Uncle Gnarley is a fiscal conservative possessing distinctly liberal values and a non-partisan persusasion. Those values and opinions underlie this writer's views on NL's politics, economy and society. Uncle Gnarley publishes Monday mornings and more often when events warrant.

REMEMBERING BILL MARSHALL

Ron Penney -
Bill left public life shortly after the signing of the Atlantic Accord and became a member of the Court of Appeal until his retirement in 2003. During his time on the court he was involved in a number of successful appeals which overturned wrongful convictions, for which he was recognized by Innocence Canada. Bill had a special place in his heart for the underdog.
Read more

Churchill Falls Explainer (Coles Notes version)

Bern Coffey -
If CFLCo is required to maximize its profit, then CFLCo should sell its electricity to the highest bidder(s) on the most advantageous terms available.
Read more

END OF THE UPPER CHURCHILL POWER CONTRACT: IMPROVING OUR BARGAINING POWER

Ron Penney -
This is the most important set of negotiations we have engaged in since the Atlantic Accord and Hibernia. Despite being a small jurisdiction we proved to be smart and nimble enough to negotiate good deals on both. They have stood the test of time and have resulted in billions of dollars in royalties and created an industry which represents over a quarter of our economy. Will we prove to be smart and nimble enough to do the same with the Upper Churchill?
Read more

117 COMMENTS

  2. On July 17th, 2013 HQ filed a motion in the Quebec Superior Court to obtain a declaratory judgement of its rights to power from CF for the remainder of the initial contract and the 25 year extension. HQ also wanted a stop put to the sale of quantities of power and energy above the 300MW recapture that CFLCo had started doing in June, ie interuptable power and energy.

    We lost the case but we appealed it. Happily the Appeal Court ruled in our favor in distinguishing between HQ's rights to virtually all of the power and energy except for the 300MW and the 225MW originally contracted. The appeal court found that upon the extension HQ lost its right to all of the power above the AEB in effect at expiry of the original contract.

    This is unquestionably a win and helpful to the situation for NL but it does not give effect to the Water Management Agreement allowing the booking of water and use of the upper Churchill reservoir to serve the needs of MF to avoid spilling water at that location. This agreement was imposed by the PUB but never accepted by HQ. This agreement would be an important next step in ensuring that all the water that reaches the MF plant is turbined and not spilled, to no ones benefit.

    • "And the beat goes on, laudy-daddy-da". How is the average Jane or Joe to make any sense out of the court ruling and the conflicting comments made by everyone ensundry. Also read Ed Hollets piece this morning, and he is not even as optimistic as UG on what we gained. Interesting to note, UG predicted HQ would take it to the SCC, where as Ed predicted that Cflco would take it to an appeal. Now go figure that one. Both sides making an appeal. Beyond and above my comphrerend. But what do I know. Danny was tangled up in this for years, about time he remained silent rather than expressions of vindication of his opinion a decade ago and more. He said he read the entire ruling, rings about as hollow as when he said the stock market was up and going up, because he checked the market this morning, before he came in. Imagine that, checked the stock market. Well, as for Ball, seems he was repeating what nalcor told him. The cattleman upstream controls the cattleman downstream, with or with the law on their side says Joe blow.

  3. Yes the capacity of the MF plant remains to be seen. Will it produce designed power output or at much less.

    Will the spur hold out? Will residents have the time to escape?

    Of course Ball is wrong and Nalcor does NOT have control with the WMA. HQ has the first 525 MW, Nalcor the rest. Climate change is seeing less rain in northern climates. If rainfall drops as expected this agreement will mean nothing for NL, HQ will get all the power once again.

  5. I think Ed Hollett has a good analysis of this, and puts a figure of 25 Million benefit. So if that goes to mitigation or not, 25 of 800 million a year needed is little.
    Stan Marshall says a small amount of accommodation from HQ could allow for water coordination. Maybe yes maybe no. Should they, if a negative for their own needs?
    Here is my take: MFs is designed to supply about 550MW on average, about 500 delivered to Soldiers Pond, so just enough to offset Holyrood which has 3 old large oil fired generators.
    Mfs is also designed for 824 MW peak, but now stated to be 790 expected peak for operation. With transmission losses this allows about 710 MW peak delivered to Soldiers Pond.
    For our typical winter conditions, 500 from Labrador MFs and 700 from island hydro, and 100 from Nfld power small hydro gives 1300 MW, which is more than needed for the Avalon. If MFs is limited at times to 170, then we are short on the Avalon getting about 970 MW
    In a cold snap our peak goes to about 1800, and the Avalon say 1200. The 710 MW from Labrador with island hydro would more handle cold snap conditions on the Avalon.
    However to get 710, it was assumed we could draw down on the small MFs reservoir, say 18 inches, over 2 or 3 days, even if the CFs flow was not adequate. Now this draw down would risk land slides,if I recall,SNC stated, so the reservoir can perhaps deviate only 6 inches. This prevents production at 790MW …….UNLESS HQ says ok we will flow more water through CFs plant so MFs can operate higher. We will do this for 3 days until your cold snap passes and your peak load drops off. To to this they must make changes on other of their hydro plants.
    Now added to this is NS 170 block problem. Our cold snaps power needs hinders supply of that. So should HQ accommodate both the Avalon for Nfld , and also NS committments?
    Worse still is that, I recently understand that NS has preference for their 170 at night time, and we said YES, go for it, in the contract. This the result of our master deal maker, Ed Martin, with input from Gil.
    See everyone naturally wants to cover their ass for enough power at maximium cold weather, both Quebec, Nfld and NS. And max cold occurs at nitetime, with peaks in the early morning with heating loads ramping up.
    So, to NS we have given away the shop, we assure them power at the worst time for us,(all which produces no revenue for Nalcor) without assurance we can stay warm on the Avalon during cold snaps, unless HQ says they will inflict injury to their own interests.
    So where is our big win on this latest judgement? I don't see it.So applications now before the PUB is for more or replacement thermal generation, whether for base or peak or back up power. Complicated? You bet! Well thought out this MFs plan? Certainly not. Reliable power even ? No one know yet. Have I muddied the waters or clarified anything? My MW numbers may be off some, if others can comment?
    Winston Adams

  6. The judgement says that HQ has access to 4 382 + 682 = 5 064 MW of power during winter time (paragraph 161 and 162). That is 100% of the power but the Twinco and Recall blocks. So during winter, HQ has it all / nothing left for CFLCo. Only extras would be during summer time if any.

    Also, because the Annual Energy Base is defined as the average annual output, CFLCo can not really take anything when there are some extras because, by definition, these extras will be required to provide HQ with the AEB during years of lower hydrology.

    The judgement may helps Nalcor to run MF above the 17% mark, but does not really provide CFLCo with extra power and even less extra significant revenues.

  9. Hats off to lawyer, again, Collins today at the INquiry for focusing on the transmission line reliability. Gilbert is hedging his responses, as I suggest this line in not 1/150 year design, but as usual sneaky ways of presenting data to mislead. This line was essential to be 150 year return period, but to cut costs, they risked worse reliability, and more so just 50 year return period. This is technical and Collins alone is very good at a deep dive into this. Gilbert says we will need time for operating experience to know the effectiveness, Collins say we'll all be dead before we know!
    Nfld Hydro standards exceed the CSA standard for 1/50 retuen due to experience especially wit failures on the Avalon, and indeed CSA is not rigid but says to use experience where this implied higher design is needed in certain regions.
    The line failure rate is 1-2 % per year < I think they said. Compare that to power reliability needed of 99.97 % to get 2.8 hrs a year power loss. That DC line is to supply 70% of the Avalon load in winter and expected to be very low in reliability, this just from ice loading issues alone! Man oh man, …….A STRONG FINISH he says, we need more than a finish , we need long term reliability.
    Other technical high risk issues need to flushed out at this Inquiry. Too bad PENG2 has quit, why?
    Winston Adams

    • A return period of 50 years implies that some event (like an ice storm) that will take down the lines is expected every 50 years. It also implies, that there is a 2% chance of it happening each year.

      Given that the climate is changing rapidly, looking back 50 years isn't reliable. I don't know if climate change models were used to get this 50 year design criteria, or if it is simply looking at the past as we did with the older 100 year floor plain maps.

      If the whole idea of using 1:50 rather than 1:150 was to use weaker/cheaper towers and skip the design work for systems that will survive extreme weather, then we are doomed to some very long power outages when a major ice event destroys dozens or hundreds of towers.

    • It seems from a variety of Lower Churchill plans , case 8 etc , that 150 year event was the plan but then for MFs was changed to 50 year event to "lower the cost", and obvious lower reliability. Some compromises made seems not to give us the 150 reliability, especially since our unique experience of icing loads that take priority over CSA standard criteria.
      Some beefing up yes, but still inadequate it seems. Some Nalcor official recently said all else will be match sticks before the DC towers come down, they are so robust. If one compares wood poles to those towers at the same location, maybe so, but wood poles on most of the island would be intact while those towers on the GNP could come down, as extreme events are regional…….so the match stick comparison is silly, but went unchallenged
      I personally have some pieces of heavy galvanized steel from 230 kw towers collapsed from ice loads in the 1980s, bought from the scrap dealer in Makinsons. I recall Harve Young( transmission line design engieer) showing me the photos of heavy ice that took down towers in the 1970. From those events Nfld Hydro wisely adhered to standards for some areas exceeding the CSA……..seems this prudent approach was put aside by Nalcor, and maybe by the new group at Nfld Hydro?
      Winston

  10. David Vardy has a an important Telegram letter that discusses the back end loading. He mentions.

    "former NL Hydro CEO Vic Young wrote to Nalcor CEO Ed Martin in March of 2012 to emphasize the importance of measuring the impact of Muskrat Falls on the fiscal position of the province.

    “Given the magnitude of the numbers, it is imperative that the potential impact on the fiscal position of the Province be at the top of the decision making chain…even more important than power rates at this stage. It is the Province that needs the potential financial consequences independently assessed (independent from Nalcor) and it is this independent financial review that should be tabled and debated in the House of Assembly so that the people of the Province do not end up with a big negative fiscal surprise, as they did with Churchill Falls. Government must, therefore, be brutally frank and transparent about the potential fiscal risks and presumably Tom Marshall will start that process in his upcoming budget…just a personal view! Vic

    So — the former CEO was worried about the fiscal position of the Province and wanted to clear his conscience. I see no evidence that Ed/Danny could care less about the financial disaster as long as they got their cut.

    Also Disturbing is the Graph showing cash requirements rising from 800 million a year to 2.5 billion because of the scam financing arrangement. with a declining population (fertility is down and the baby boomers are getting old), where are these billions going to come from?

    https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor/letter-extreme-risk-for-the-province-325075/

    • When Dave refers to "back end loading" is he talking about the ratepayer getting screwed?

      Watch the world quickly evolve to renewables and battery storage because it solves the intermittent condemnation of renewables.

      "Eversource expects to help deploy over 20 MW of customer-owned and sited storage that can potentially enhance grid operations."
      https://www.elp.com/articles/2019/06/transforming-utility-customer-service-gridscale-and-btm-energy-storage.html

      While we are at it:
      Big batteries help to stabilise our power grid and provide much-needed backup power – which is vital to maintaining a reliable and affordable energy supply for Victoria."
      https://www.energy-storage.news/news/australias-largest-solar-plus-storage-project-comes-online

    • Bruno, Back end loading, in construction terminology, is just what we get when you are tempted and directed to negotiate and accept the lowest bid. Dave himself is learning the construction gaming tricks, just like the esteemed Judge Leblanc. You get what you pay for. However, NL can never recoup the Muskrat Boondoggle.

    • Batteries, it terms of power storage, is like powering a wind mill with a fart, or lighting a fart to heat your house. It can indeed add short term stability to a power grid, but for storage for significant time it is very very costly. A Bruno battery has the storage time similar to Bruno memory rack….it disappears in minutes.
      One minute he is green, the next minute he is black promoting native coal,or native gas, so Bruno can't even remember his true color.
      As to size, he references 20 MW, but does not say how many MWh, so hides the duration of the battery power. An old Nalcor trick, like we see to day at the Inquiry :18000 lbs of oil burned peak at Holyrood, which is true, but also true is that happens only a few hours per year, so misleading in media reports. So Gil says a more FULSOME assessment would be better. Gil's favourite expression MORE FULSOME……..yet the deceit and half truths we constantly get blocks the MORE FULSOME assessment. MORE FULSOME would have provided a rational low cost Isolated option that would have kept our power costs reliable and steady.
      Gil"s Sayings to remember: 1. Garbabe in, garbage out(as to QRAs), and 2. MORE FULSOME.
      When will Bruno give a Fulsome report on battery storage?
      Winston Adams

    • Me reactionary…..right wing…….me .wanting a Green candidate to vote for, wanting independent Efficiency Corporation, a MFs naysayer, applauding student student protests for climate change marches etc, against burning oil gas and especially black coal…, me right wing!…….Bruno do you know left from right, I am just left of centre.
      Your facts are mostly fables…..and the future …..no one knows with certainty, but trends are not good. GHGs still climbing, that one fact.
      Winston

  12. Surprise, surprise… Dwight now says soil removal at MF off table
    two years ago it was definitely gonna be done
    So last week's big win in Quebec court in two years will be big loss
    Lie, Lie, Lie is all they do

  13. No answer on if adequate insurance if the North Spur fails….just say Nfld Hydro generally has insurance……..details please specific to North Spur?
    Missed part of questioning on design safety……has reputable engineers certified …….AJ or other , did you hear anything on that…..or still necessary to do the jump test?
    Winston

  14. Gilbert …..what a weasel……he would not give Ed Martin his opinion as to the cost risk and schedule risk, as did Paul Harrington , according to his letter to Stan Marshall……just go along with Ed Martin, a guy with low technical ability , and Gil with high technical ability……so no duty to inform Ed Martin his best advise. Astounding…..and he still on the payroll! Engineering ethics or what …..wilful blindness?
    Winston

  15. Record temperatures expected in much of Europe the next few days, and temperatures here below normal, likely an effect of our free air conditioning from the Labrador cold current, and likely keeping capelin away. Middle Cove should have a sign saying capelin expected to roll when ocean temperature warms to 10 C or 50 F.
    I should go and check the temperature, I expect not more than 47 now. If so, then warming at 0.25 F per day, would indicate 4 x 3 = capelin would roll in 12 days time. Of course not an exact thing, and subject to sudden large temperature dips when the Labrador current swings close.
    Bruno would be interested, certainly.
    Winston Adams

    • What is going on with capelin……last spring many capelin were in the Gulf, also at PEI area in May and June. Now since mid May to present 24 location I counted, capelin hearing for Montreal almost, well into the Gulf of St Lawrence, same or more so than last year, then about mid July for Nfld, so a month late here as usual for 25 years or more.
      the site "ecapelin" shows where the capelin are spotted, and "capelin calander" reports about sightings in Nfld in particular,(much talk on that site when things pick up, many interested in Middle Cove, but even tourists visiting here) for anyone interested. So far 3 sightings in Nfld but not rolling.Whales reported of Witless Bay, a positive indicator.
      Temperatures in France expected to be record breaking at 45 C , 113 F (bath water is usually 105 F. Horse and carriage rides are banned , being unsafe for the horses, and kids school exams cancelled.
      The UN is predicting climate apartiet, where the rich travel to cooler climates to avoid the heat,while the poor suffer, meanwhile the rich cause 70% of GHGs and the poor 10%.
      Question: how many Bruno batteries needed to air condition Europe in this heat wave? What if we towed over some icebergs? Meanwhile the Digger is fretting over Bill 69.
      Winston Adams

    • Bring back the Central Heating and Power plant based on solar energy. The Americans built it to run the Base efficiently. Our own Public Works Engineers abandoned the least cost option, just like the current replacement of the the school hot water systems. Where is the Titanic headed? No Sustainable Development exists at Energy Ministry. Make the minority government listen to reason. Hope the traffic jam at Costco brings some consumers to their senses.

  16. Reliable reports say that the government here has authorised about a dozen projects, schools mostly, to tear out oil fired hydronic heat and install electric baseboard heat……that consultants are livid to this back ward approach. For decades consultants improving on building efficiency, and new schools typical with heap pump hydronic heat which is very efficient.
    This past winter we had record peak winter loads and lucky not to have blackouts, and burning lots of fuel at Holyrood for that load. Now without assurance of MFs online or reliable, this seems stupid, but intentional to build MFs load. Not waiting for the PUB to make recommendations it seems, so plough ahead. Much like spending money on MFs in advance of sanction. Who gave the go ahead for this to happen, Ball, or Letto's last directive?

    • The are trying to glean some cash from the the LCELF The argument is that they are replacing bad oil (which we produce) with clean, green power from Muskrat Falls (lots of concrete isn't good either). Lower carbon emission = money from the feds. The school board loves electric heat too because it is low maintenance and they don't pay the bills. The department of education just gives them (NLESD) a grant for whatever the power costs.

      https://www.exec.gov.nl.ca/exec/occ/low_carbon_economy_fund.html

      The real motivation I suspect is to increase electric demand for Muskrat Falls. I'd rather see air-to-water heat pumps and reuse the existing hydronics, or use biomass that was obtained within the province.

  18. The "washout" of the Trans Labrador Highway, near Muskrat, points up the ongoing problem of substandard Engineering Design with respect to our important infrastructure links. Why is it that our Profession continues this pattern failure to properly assess the sizing of a simple road culvert? The proximity of the transmission line, highway, and natural water course makes me think of an opportunity missed to develop another potential "Winston water battery" 🙂

    • It always comes down to cost. When climate change is considered, bigger culverts are needed and cost more. Climate change then gets ignored and historical data is used to justify the cheaper option. (even it it costs more in the long term). Short sighted.

  20. Well I'm shocked that only at this late stage is the deceit by Gil and freinds being touched on…the misrepresentation of 18,000 bls per day oil burned at Holyrood , when this happening only a few hours,the admission that the GE software is mow the biggest risk for reliability, that Gil say with Astrom all was assures in hand but wit GE takeover, a problem, that no assurance of getting 300 MW to Nfld over the ML, that constraints exist to get it to the Avalon, that for firm capacity going forward new capacity may have to be built(more gas turbine backup likely) , that the PUB must decide if Holyrood is to shut down, and on and on it goes…..new Nfld Hydro recent assessment on those issues, a near admission that we being delivered a lemon, or a dud,so Nalcor did their part, now NfldHydro operation problems and PUB problem. Peachy situation.
    Hogan only touched, scratched the surface of the misrepresentations since 2011…….Gil blames the reporter for the 18,000 bls per day item …….he says a more "Fulsome" look at stastics would tell a better story.
    Past time a more fulsome look at Gil and Nalcors deceit on the public, with the deception on the Isolated Options…….glanced over by this INquiry.
    Winston Adams

    • Simple decision to make; Restore the Power Utility to be run by competent management, (Fire all the invasive species from the Cable/Offshore Industry), or blow up NALCOR for evermore! John Mallam and others got out before the purge. Should not be hard to get this done, while we have a minority government now should it?

    • Even the Labrador Innu are getting cold feet at this Inquiry, as to their agreement with Nalcor, the New Dawn, covering CFs and MFs…..wanting assurance that the CFs payments is not tired to MFs performance.Gil says they are separate…….but implied the province must pay it , not Nalcor!
      Is MFs like the Titanic , heading for an iceberg type event, where the engines fail, the lights go out, and everyone on their own for survival? Does Leblanc issue his report before hitting the iceberg?
      Winston Adams

  21. It’s somewhat strange and puzzling that there is an individual who appears to have played a key role in this whole sordid Muskrat affair yet has not been called to testify at the current inquiry. We constantly see the name Brian Crawley appear in numerous emails, etc. In fact if you search that name on the inquiry website exhibit tab it results in a total of 80 exhibits dating from 2006 to 2016. It seems he left sometime after the 2015 election and the demise of the gatekeeper.
    It would also be very interesting to check the background of this individual to see where he came from before he was hired by Nalcor. In a June, 2011 Telegram article by Steve Bartlett, Nalcor’s communications manager, Dawn Dalley said that Crawley will facilitate a management committee and oversee aspects of the system as well as joint development agreements.
    She also said, “He’s a traffic cop, and on issues that come up, he’s the guy that needs to get everyone in the room and (work) it out until it’s done … like the chief of staff of the project. ”Whether or not people believe us, he actually applied on that role and was interviewed for and was the most qualified person.” She also said. “He has excellent experience and I don’t think anyone here is going to apologize for having him here, because he’s got a good background. He’s got a lot of experience that fits particularly for that role. Boy, I tell you, most folks here are going woo-hoo.”
    Now isn’t that an interesting comment? How’s that for openness and transparency.
    Albeit, it would probably be a waste of time to have him testify as we would surely get the same ole mantra we are hearing at this inquiry of "I can't recall, I don’t remember and this is what I would have done" etc., and similar to his testimony at a recent previous inquiry, such as indicated in this link https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/williams-attacks-cancer-commissioner-s-disdain-during-testimony-1.704215 .

    The unmitigated audacity of the former premier of the day in his defense and reasoning for memory loss is insulting.

    Ah we sure live in curious times don't we and how is it that this guy Crawley has slipped under everyone’s radar?

    Makes one wonder is this inquiry is just another farce and could be nothing but a continued hoodwinking of the hungry proletariat to let them think that this so called inquiry will truly get to the bottom of and answer the 5 W’s of this masterplan to make a certain clique of bourgeois, elite folks and friends rich from public monies and “set for life” without even buying a ticket.

    It’s enough to “turn a horse from his oats” as my dear ole grandfather used to say.

    • When I noted one of the exhibits today, Crawley was 3rd on the list of persons to which it was sent (I think it was a project update report of some type), and I think Ed and Gil might have been 1st and 2nd on the addressee list.

      I found it odd that he was never required to testify.

      I intended to make a comment similar to yours, but got sidetracked.

    • I see Crawley was Integration Manager. "Integration" to me is key to successful operation of the DC system components with the island AC grid, so integration with GE Grid software.Guess Crawley's Integration skill did not include this knowledge,and not at all related, nor did Gilbert Bennett, who now cites this software as the number one risk outstanding.
      I bet the original specifications for different packages never even addressed the integration issue, and so no one noticed it is even necessary until late in the game.
      Part of the problem with GE was that they were involved in their own corruption issue….recall my comment from Houston in Nov, as there was a write up in the Wall Street Journal I think, I kept it somewhere, realizing that Nalcor was now having problems with GE Grid…….which was looking serious. So, a little more to GE Grid problems then Gil said today. Gil defers to Stan Marshall to say more on this.
      Winston

  23. Lordie, Lordie, is there panic setting in? Nfld Power questioning Gil on apparent lack of reliability of the Avalon power supply if Holyrood is shut, as all the lines cross the Istmus of the Avalon, a severe icing area. And Soldiers pond DC terminal also depends on island AC power to operate. Avalon power generation is only about 200MW (I assume 123 for the gas turbine and 80 Nfld Power hydro)……and the Avalon may need 1200 in cold snaps. All in all a very nasty potential situation, well known to anyone with common sense in the power business here.
    Question: why at the 11th hour Nfld Power raises the red flag on this? Why not before MFs sanction?
    And we learn from Gil, that neither Nalcor nor Nfld Hydro has made a decision as to whether they will upgrade island transmission or add new generation to cover this situation?
    In Europe with the heat wave, headlines say "Hell is coming"
    The situation presented by NP to day, suggests all lines down on the Avalon at the Istmus, 1200 MW needed and 200 MW only on hand! Less than 10 % power available for maybe 2 weeks. Is there a cold hell as well as a hot hell? If so, we face a possible cold hell. After 14 billion spent, this is what we can face, as to power reliability!
    Gilbert just admitted to Leblanc that this project is not at a happy place, as to cost and schedule. He admitted one can connect the dots, and we wear it, he says. Should some of Nalcor wear it more than others? He never said "the buck stops here"…….likely he would point to Ed Martin, the gatekeeper. Is he not equal, or worse than Ed Martin? Gil is the technical wizzard……..but maybe just for the cable business.
    Winston Adams

  24. I am left scratching my head?

    I just finished watching the lawyer from Newfoundland Power question Gilbert Bennett.

    It was only a few brief questions regarding the reliability of transmission lines in general.

    According to Newfoundland Power the main lines into the Avalon Peninsula are susceptible to the same weather exposure ie. the narrow isthmus of the Peninsula.

    If all the lines go down, both AC and HVDC (Muskrat Falls) without Holyrood in operation there is very little generation capacity on the Avalon.

    Furthermore if the the AC lines go down the HVDC line cannot operate properly without AC power at Soldiers Pond!

    Then to add insult to injury Bennett agreed that without substantial upgrades to our existing AC lines it would lower the reliability for Muskrat Falls power.

    I don’t know about the rest of you but I feel we have just spent 13+ Billion Dollars for Muskrat Falls which we sold as the solution for our power issues for our future?

    Why have we not heard any mention of this prior to June 26th, 2019?

    Yup, I am still scratching my head!

    Without a doubt by the time this is all over I will be completely bald!

    • Anony @ 17:39:

      I wouldn't agree that we are only hearing about this now, a quote from the MHI report submitted to PUB in 2012:
      [start]
      “Nalcor cannot quantify the true risks associated with a power system and are unable to provide some of the important inputs for making sound engineering and business decisions.”
      [end]

      That same report also pointed out that the TLs were below acceptable reliability standards.

      This document has been in the public domain pre-sanction.

      PENG2

    • Of course ice loads is a very serious risk, and MHI referenced it.
      Less serious, but not to be dismissed is salt on the lines for flashovers, especially on the GNP area. Yet Nalcor said salt was not even a contaminant……..this has not even been challenged at the Inquiry, and can happen often whereas icing is less frequent.
      If lawyer Collins got more air time on more technical issues, he would expose more of the deceit.
      Winston

  25. Well, the main man in building muskrat has just finished his time on the stand at the same time Costco closes and reopens at Dannyville. And the brave fearless media is scared of roundabouts. People don't know how to use them they say, steep learning curve. I would think it might have more to do with the design, like muskrat than with the users. If they are designed, so that traffic traversing them is back up at a light, or on the highway offramp, then that is not the drivers fault, but the highway designers. So let's see what happens. Meanwhile the weasel, weaselled his way through 3 days on the stand bobbing and weaving like a real pro. Talked about a million here, 5 or 10 million there, 300 million over there, as most of us talk about loonies and toonies. But little talk about 6 B$ changing to 10 B$ almost overnight. He has been there the entire time, weaving and bobbing like a squirrel or his next of kin the weasel. Who was he trying to impress. Who was he trying to fool. The cost more than doubled. If I were a jurious, and I have been, and listening to the BS, I would simply say guilty as charged, as here we have proof positive, the dead body, and his signature and dna all over it. 15 billion gone and no reliable power. That's the verdict, lock 'EM up. Joe blow.

    • In the rest of North America, a clover leaf intersection is common, as in 4 leaf clover, not the common 3 leaf variety.

      Here, we have crazy stuff. Kenmount road inbound has to go to Kelsey Drive and make a left under an overpass that has a turning lane with space for about three cars. Meanwhile, all traffic is backed up.

      To get onto the parkway, Kenmount inbound, you have to traverse a city block (I guess an important building was in the way).

      West bound outer ring road has no exit to Torbay Road.

      TGH and the Ring Road are recent roads in the scheme of things and could be designed properly. What drives this insanity? If I was building a house and someone offered Option F, skip the front entrance to save $5000 would I approve it and tell everyone to use the back door? Not likely – I'd rent until I could afford a house.

  26. Well, can't blame it on the witness if he or she is allowed to get away with the repetition, and the weaving and bobbing.

    Unfortunately, much of the questioning as merely given Nalcor another opportunity to again, and again, and again get its same old, same old story out there.

    And we had enough of that from Ed and Gil (and our elected officials) leading up to and after sanction.

    Not a lot of probing questions — just the kind that all but asks for the witness to once again spew their manufactured mantra.

    Having said that, there has been some counsel and co-counsel that has stood out (and Collins perhaps stands out from the crowd).

  27. There is a push to replace oil with electricity and an attitude that energy efficiency doesn't matter. For example, oil furnace generates CO2 and is bad, while baseboard uses MF power and is good. Heat pumps are also good, but cost more, so why be concerned with using less electricity when MF is overflowing with abundant, possibly surplus, delicious green energy? (ignoring the concrete production, methyl mercury contamination, likely insolvency of the province and a mega disaster if the north spur fails).

    Another example: why insulate a home when all the glorious MF green power is low CO2 anyway? Just go 100% electric. After all, Co2 is the only thing that matters to government. Totally ignored is that for people the bottom line is having enough money for rent, heat, meds and feeding the family.

    Reality is that we won't have a surplus of electricity for winter heating on the Avalon with electric resistance heat. Engineers everywhere need to push back on this.

    Converting Oil to baseboard is just insane, especially if the electricity it comes from diesel turbines. Even more insane if it requires an on-site locomotive engine as a backup generator. Oil->heat pump makes might sense but not if it is oil generated electricity because with the heat pump efficiency will barely offset the generation losses. Far simpler to keep the oil boilers and upgrade the burners.

    Watch as things like the Health Sciences gets converted to electric boilers and a new electrical substation is built. Will they keep the oil as a backup?

    https://www.thetelegram.com/business/new-electrical-substation-will-serve-health-sciences-centre-199162/

  28. So Coady wanted to 'make sure' she wasn't missing something when she asked for the implications of cancelling the MF Project.

    I would submit that she missed 1., the option of re-configuring the project, 2., the option of delaying (not cancelling) all or part of the project, etc., etc.

    Why is it that not unlike the TOR that corralled the PUB into considering only 2 options, that the then new Liberal government seemed to have done the same thing?

    And why did Learmonth not pose that question to Coady?

  29. Not unlike the PUB 2-option, either/or least-cost review, the new liberal government was presented with another either/or option (proceed or cancel) —- these two options should not have been the only options on the table, but I would suggest (just as the 2-option PUB review was intentionaly designed to effectively put a gun to the PUB's head, so too was the 2-option "proceed/cancel" consideration intentionally presented so as to make the 'proceed' option APPEAR TO BE the only 'reasonable' option.

  30. Evidence that there was more than a "proceed/cancel" option on the table prior to 15 Dec. 2015 when Coady was sworn in :—-

    "The white elephant can't be ignored" (The Telegram, 05 December 2015) —- QUOTE "So, Premier-designate, let's put the dam/generation plant on hold" UNQUOTE

    Where is Coady's analyses to that realistic option?

  31. On June 21, Bruno says " Gil is squirming at last" Squirreling maybe is closer. Gil performed exceedingly well, and as AJ described. A photo in the Telegram or CBC shows self satisfied with a smirk,and occasionally on the stand had the smirk. Unflappable, would that describe him? To any question, he could go off on a round about long response, interwoven with technicalities, to confound the counsel and causing the response OKKKKK.
    With Kat O Brien after several days, he was stressed, had high pressure issues recall, and showing effects. Now in top conditions, marvelous performance, maybe never fooled the Commissioner or AJ, but must give him an A for performance, and could baffle many with bullshit, thise with low technical aboitliy, like Bruno say, and the general public, winding up saying the DC line is the most robust on the planet.
    A strong finish by Gil, on the stand. For me, me nerves are rubber right raw, and glad he gone. I few notes I took , I will commnet later, when I recover.
    Winston Adams

    • Very funny Robert! There will be a prohibition on any energy saving devices in Gall Way. They must do their part and mop up all that surplus energy from the unnecessary MF project like the hydronic systems being ripped out of government buildings replaced with baseboard electric (the most inefficient supply)!

  33. Coady has baffled with bullshit on the spur, now mercury is getting the same glib, arrogant treatment.

    I see troll PENGzero is back, victim shaming and saying as always, you knew the score and accepted it so shut the F— up!

  34. "There is a disconnect on the capping proposal" but Coady can't tell you why! Not her business she claims. Definitely a gap that resulted in the window for capping closed.

    Coady knows not why poor darling. She can't explain why capping was not done despite she knew in plenty of time. Duh….. seems her response if you strip the pretentious verbiage from her statement. She was cc on the plan but she did not read it somehow, ask someone else she says!

    • Capping gives "ONLY" a 1-2 % benefit she says, so to her , no big deal. And could have been done for only 20 million.
      Yet if power reliability to Sin Johns is is 2 % worse, so instead of 99.97 % power on, is 98 % on, that is 175 hrs per year with no electricity, not 2.8 hrs (our present good standard), this loss of 2 % is a crisis, and someone will pay hell, and lives will be lost.
      On one instance it is safety of food for people of Lake Melville area, the other, it is our capital city where the elites live, and most of the schemers who grew rich from this boondoggle.
      Do you agree with that arithmetic Bruno?
      Winston Adams

  35. She sees a sincere attempt to remediate by government! Nonetheless she does not know if the indigenous groups know the capping plan is dead! Not deliberate she claims! I BELIEVE GOV HAS BEEN RESPONSIVE TO issues raised. Only 2% the wetlands of the flooded area but she has no insight in how this happened. She did not know how Nalcor kept this from her!

    Dodge and weave, dodge and weave, a clear question arises about whether government had any intention of capping as the window passed. Why would I do that a stunned Cody states?! No Scheming she claims innocently! Impoundement now underway and IAC recommendations ignored but Coady finds value in the indigenous engagement around capping and removal.

    Despite the fact that nothing done due to government dithering but the knowledge to indigenous communities makes it worthwhile the Great White Queen (or is that the Red Queen) claims! Let them eat cake I suppose!

  36. After listening to the testimony of Siobhan Coady so far today it appears that while some things may have changed with how our Government operates some things unfortunately have not?

    Now we have the current Ball Government which appears to have dropped the ball on recommendations of wetland capping which Government agreed to undertake as per recommendations of the review panel.

    Coady is not aware of what another department(s) may have done, even though the Muskrat Falls project falls directly on the shoulders of the Department of Natural Resources for which Coady has been, and continues to be the Minister responsible.

    It appears that the clock has literally run out on being able to complete this work prior to impoundment for the Muskrat Falls dam?

    It seems to be a repeat of the full speed ahead attitude that has gripped this project from Day 1!

    Should anyone even ask if the project should be delayed until this work is completed?

    Learmonth summed it up?

    It has the appearance of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing!

    Yup, onward through the Muskrat Fog!

    • You may not be too far off?

      I see that Learmonth was eluding to exactly that in his questioning of Siobhan Coady.

      It should be interesting to see the line of questioning on this issue when the aboriginal groups get their turn to question Coady as well?

      I won’t be surprised if more witnesses get called to clarify exactly what did, or did not happen within Government and Nalcor regarding this environmental issue.

  38. Well all I know after listening to Tommy Williams question Siobhan Coady you would think that Muskrat Falls was the best 13+ Billion Dollars we ever spent (flushed down the toilet) as a Province!

    Why we even still have Gull Island to fall back on in the future!

    The only thing missing was Danny’s hand up his brother’s arse to help move his lips!

    I think I may have actually thrown up a little in my mouth!

    Tommy got to “testify” his 2 cents worth, he folded up his briefcase and promptly left the Inquiry.

    Yes sir Tommy earned his legal fees for today!

  39. The L'il Trump was dressed up in his best Barnum & Bailey circus carnie costume to greet all the suckers visiting his gawd-awful new sideshow. CBC pants about how the big new ("biggest in the land") pit of consumption is a paradigm shift for the selling of baubles in the NewFoundeLande. To complete the utter tackiness of the Cesspool on Galway, the L'il Trump put up silhouettes of Blue Puttees on Beaumont-Hamel Drive; they gave they lives so you could save 5 bucks on double-ply toilet paper. The other clowns were at the HofA or MF inquiry. Side-Show Ball has another big tawdry bread-n-circuses event planned for Corner Brook.
    The Shit-Show continues until the population finally chokes on the L'il Trump's really big show, the Falls of Muskrat.
    Last one out, remember turn out the lights cause that last kilowatt's gonna be mighty pricey.

    • And perfect timing: Danny's legacy project heard testimony today of serious risk to the North Spur failure, and no remedial action on wet lands to counter food poisoning for Labrador residents. His legacy project of 14 billion needing 800 million a year to be sucked from residents. Brother Tommy at the Inquiry giving high praise, Danny does the big promotion on Danny Drive, and even has Galway gals he says.
      Both occuring on the same day, and on NTV, Galway got more coverage then the shocking testimony at the Inquiry.
      1100 teabags for $29.00 Danny boasted, doing an ad for Costco.That's 3 cents per tea bag, but power to make tea soon to exceed 20 cent rates. Ice tea anyone?
      World class , is he not? And the media eating out of his hand.
      Room for 1100 cars at that store, and large line ups for gas.
      How many charging stations for EVs for cheap Muskrat energy? Forgot……the cheap NL Muskrat energy goes free to Nova Scotia. Costco is in the gas and propane business, and teabags of course.

    • 5 minutes to boil a big 1800 watt kettle (rather excessive) at 22 cents/kWh will cost 3.3 cents for the hot water. At least you can get two cups of tea from a Canadian tea bag (USA teabags have less tea).

      The weird thing for me was the local press promoting the new Costo as if was something great for the economy and that Danny did something really great. Costco simply moved. Media was providing Danny with free propaganda.

  41. Watched some of yesterday's performance, between my afternoon visit, to get in on the 3 cent tea bags, as I usually gets two cups of tea from one bag, so could say only 1.5 cents for me, and didn't learn a whole lot that I didn't know before. My main point with the ball govt. when they took over was could the project be stopped or paused to determine the best course of action. Everything else happened as I knew before, Eddie wanted unfettered support as he had with the previous govt. and when ball balked, he resigned and then went to the BOD to get dismissed without cause to get his full benefits under the cintract. Coady said the project was one third completed and 2 thirds of the money spent, and the cost was then 10B, but didn't go into much more detail except it was too far advanced to stop or pause, and she mentioned, commitments to the Feds, Emera, NS, contractors, fininanciers etc. Could EY or GT etc have done an independant assessment, during the winter of 2015-16 to determine the best course of action, with everything laid on the table including Astaldi. That is the question I ponder, and has not been answered adequately in my mind says average Joe. Maybe the other witness will be more convincing.

  42. SOooooooo …….

    The Commission contracted GT to do a forensic audit of project workers and vendors (living allowances, small tools personnel protective equipment use, daily work hours, and vendors for conflict of interest).

    Some 'process' and oversight weaknesses were found and that pretty much sums it up.

    NOW, the Commission found such an audit was needed —- BUT a similar INDEPENDENT, EXPERT audit of the COMPLEX North Spur geotechnical works and stabilization works flowing from them, IS NOT NECESSARY.

    Peachy, just peachy.

    Tell me, Commissioner Leblanc, Consumer Advocate Browne et al, how in the world that that makes sense (judicial, reasonable or common)?

  43. Has any engineer or engineering firm dared sign off on the North Spur as being safe for operation? If not, why not?

    Can we get a court injunction to stop the reservoir filling until it is certified by a competent engineering authority?

  44. VOCM announced the P3 for the Corner Brook Hospital without using the phrase "public private partnership" or P3. You'd almost think we were just building it ourselves. When is the $750 million dollars due? Do we just add this to our long term debt?

    • Can the Mechanical Engineers tell us why this is not a Low Carbon, LEED silver project?

      Great opportunity to apply sustainable development criteria; certainly no baseboard heating, and certainly a Central Heating and Power concept, I hope.

    • Just keep piling on the debt on future generations. MF is not enough, break their backs with future debt. Just pile on a new HMP on your grandkids, they will be sure to leave when they reach the age of majority.

      Just keep pushing debt off to the future with P3's, fuck the kids, grandkids, great grandkids!

    • Did the Controllers even do a Site Study? Looks like a Green and Remote Site. What are the costs for servicing? A drive to rather than a walk up? What estimate parking revenues? Have we seen a Business Plan? Who benefits from the people needing Medical services? Sustainability? Low Carbon? Corner Brook seems to have seen its Boom Days. How long will the main industry, (Toilet Paper/Paper Towels Production), last. Do you all think the Controllers have a Plan? What is it?

    • For what it is worth, my Baptism reads Corner Brook, 1938. My Dad, in 1928 was seeking church people on one side of the Street, while Joey was signing up union workers on the opposite side. I recall playing the Blomidon course before the fire. Great times were had.

  45. Well, first impressions of Stan the man is different from the previous management style. I don't think Stan studied documents or prepared much to be before the commission. It's like prepareing for a urine test, it is what it is. Just go in and present the facts along with the truth, of how you operate, direct, transparent, nothing to hide and straight forward. Seems when you have to prepare, study review every document, you are more concerneded about getting your story straight than the facts. Different style of management and leadership. Also pointed where hydro experience counts, not in building a Dam, but in the overall view, of how it is all connected. To see the big picture and make changes as necessary to keep the right focus, rather than down in the dirt trying to hide a number here or there or when to release. And true if you have strong individuals that want to do it differently, well, too bad, ultimately there is only one boss in charge of the project. Have to see how it pans out over the next couple of days says Joe blow.

  46. Stan the Man, Stan the Straight Shooter……I didn't want to miss his testimony, but missed just a few first minutes. Did he swear to Confirm to tell the truth? Anyone besides me monitoring his BR? His BR is perhaps subjective rather than objective,but interesting, when comparing to noraml BRs and that of other witnesses or counsel.Doubt if Stan is even aware whether is BR is high or low. and would find it amusing.
    What do I think of his testimony so far? A breath of fresh air, for straight forward talk and openness……..impressive, very impressive.
    Items of interest:
    1. Gil Bennett was overloaded with responsibility when Stan arrived. This apparent form testimony already and documentation. I had early on described him as the architect instead of Ed Martin…….because architects have considerable technical skills, and Ed Martin, an accountant had no technical skills as to hydro projects. Explains why Stan split the project, this also lightened the load on Bennett, instead of firing him, his technical skills needed.
    2. That Stan was astounded that the upper management did not see the "big picture" , the basic flaw with the project:that it is very complex, the transmission equal or more complex than the generation plant, and none saw the importance of the "integration" of the plant, and transmission into the utility power system on the island and also the ML. This was because they all lacked utility system experience. Of course this is where Stan and his background and also Nfld Hydro old guard experienced engineers did have knowledge. Fortis /Nfld Power were side tracked and their advise was not wanted, and the old guard Nfld Hydro engineers were terminated or sidelined I have heard. So whose fault was that? Knowledgeable people were ignored and novices( as to utility power systems) put in charge,(but called world class) with not a clue of utility power systems. The complexity of DC systems and lack of experience an added factor. Rob Henderson,of Nfld Hydro , brought in at a very late stage,being too late to avoid huge risks.

    Will Stan continue to amaze for Straight talk? Budden seems amazed, after so much bobbing and weaving by others.Harold Smith is staying awake.
    But what will Stan say to th equestion IS THE NORTH SPUR SAFE? The same vague answer that Coady gave, "We have 30 reports done, have to trust them"? Yet all were paid for by Nalcor , so not independent, Budden stated yestrday.
    Will Stan stick his neck out and when asked if the North Spur is safe, reply "I do"? Or says we must have an independent panel and have a final review and report to him?
    What will he say about reliability of the DC line? Will he say the people have to decide on the level of reliabilty and more expenditures will depend on what the general public wants? That is a cop out, and admission of failure of a STRING FINISH. A strong finish is a reliable line and power from Labrador, not a pile of expensive new genration and transmission assets.
    Will he avoid admission of the importance of CDM and demand management as a tool, as it decreases revenue, including for Nfld Power and Fortis? Or praise all the Synapse recommendations, including CDM to cut our peak winter load? Stay tuned.
    Winston Adams

    • BR is blink rate. A person blinks 28,000 times a day. Average is once every 3 seconds, a bit faster when focusing on remembering, but also, some suggest, when not being truthful. When awake we have our eyes closed about 10% of the time (a figure similar to the transmission loss on the DC line! Also reliability for power on our grid at 2.8 hrs per year at 99.97 % of the time, is the same figure 99.97 efficiency for HEPA filters in an hospital operating room……amusing comparisons)
      Blinking rates are perhaps like lie detector, a useful indicator but not reliable for admission in court.
      Stan BR seems appropriate to me, about 3 and about 1 when focusing. In contrast, Gilbert Bennett stared without blinking for extended periods, 8-10 seconds, and occassionally 2-3 when stressed. Harold Smith probably goes to 15 second, so maybe half asleep while appearing awake. Budden and Learmonth, and most other about normal at 3 per second. Amusing maybe,to watch.
      Winston Adams

    • Stan …he said with a private corp like Fortis, they are focused on value to shareholders.No mention of customers importance! Also as to the impact of cost to Nalcor of the Inquiry Commission…..did he say 5 million…….others suggested 200 million, and he said NO way would he use such a figure.
      PENG2 and others suggested way more than 200 Million, did they not?
      Stan says he would never do what is unethical.
      How this this square with North Spur risk?
      How with wetland capping……he said he allowed for that
      How for fossil fuel use and GHGS…..he is on the board of a Calgary gas company. That company use ethical gas like our ethical oil? Fortis a very large emitter of GHGs and Fortis BC promoting rebates for more gas use. Ethics is relative? Protect the environment is ethical requirement, is it not?
      Winston Adams

    • Stan proposes alternatives to capping wetlands for the 15 million intended.
      My take: that methylmercury has not increased from 25 % area already impounded. We know the flow is mostly from the CFs reservoir which is now about 50 years old. I assume the methyl mercury release from there may have peaked in the first 10 years, and on the decline since then? MFs reservoir is only about 2 % that of CFs, so seems logical that with CFs flow declining with methylmercury and small addition from MFs reservoir, that overall there may be little if any net increase, without capping? Is there evidence to suggest otherwise?
      If that the case, then a more prudent use of the 15 million to those who would be impacted may be prudent? How best to use that?
      For other health/education/ other purposes? Invest it?: additional ownership of CFs benefit package, or purchase shares into Fortis/and or Emera, with annual returns used for beneficial purposes long term?
      Stan authorized the charges against protesters resulting in charges. RIght decision he says, to protect The rule of law! Is this where protesters Charter of Rights was violated? And use of ex -parte application was heavy handed to have the judge not hear from the opposing party. Does he suggest an excessive project cost of 100 million to justify his decision?
      He says he has since developed a good relationship with Innu and others in Labrador.
      Gilbert was the key man for such relations, and did a piss poor job but Stan not wanting to be critical of what happened before his time. Recall the no action to protect the Red Wine caribou, and other issues. Documents show under Giobert, Quebec Innu sent gifts of frizzbees, and did not meet with them in the country to see their concerns, but wanted to fly leaders to Montreal hotel. Like buying Indian land for beads 400 years ago…….such was the attempts to "consult".
      Leblanc now says he will permit limited cross exam of Stan by those groups affected.
      An interesting day. Only AJ and I reporting live with Breaking News from the Shadow Inquiry. Terry Roberts and Ashley FItzpatrick are usually 3-6 hrs later.
      Winston Adams

    • WA:

      To be fair, the costs to Nalcor of the Inquiry when about $1-5m are direct costs only – my expectations of $500m also include the increased payout on REAs due to evidence produced in the Inquiry. 2 very different numbers.

      Also, I don't think an effective CDM program affects Fortis profit margin – NL Power makes the same profit distributing 1000MW vs 1200MW, though the pass through portion of revenue does decrease if unit pricing is the same. For CDM to affect NL Power profits, consumption would probably have to drop 30-40%, this is unlikely. NL Power's doesn't make more profit if NL Hydro charges them more.

      PENG2

    • PENG2, I think Stan's refusal to say 200 M referenced or intended all costs, not just direct, my interpretation.

      As to CDM this week NP counsel said options in case the DC line goes down was new generation and more island transmission to counter constraints ( so ignored Synapse)
      Inquiry counsel later challenged that saying Demand Management/CDM was an option to bring down peak demand, Gilbert admitted it was correct, and Leblanc later referenced CDM. Interesting NP did not include it as an option …….why not?
      Also you say previously NP only makes profit from expenditure increases. In the past few years NL has added almost half a billion dollars in upgrades, substations to feed Galway might be just one. Instead of sustainable heatpump heating requirements for new construction,or more rigid codes, which reduces costs for smaller capacities feeds, the old baseboard method increases NP coats which increases their profits it would seem, from your reasoning.
      Previous you said NP sales would have to drop 20 % to affect their profit, now you say 30-40%. Maybe if sales dropped to zero their profit is guaranteed? Perhaps the CA has better feel for effect of robust CDM ? Once wasteful and imprudent expenditures are locked in, they must be paid for over decades.
      It doesn't pass the smell test because NP has always resisted robust CDM, and that seems the same now.
      1. misleading the public with interactive effect (I assume you understand that)
      2. large sums of ratepayer money spent, about 1 million, yet could endorse a single new measure for customer savings
      3. had consultant ICF say all minisplits would fail in our winter climate (so showed them as zero benefit to reduce peak load, even ICF disagreed in a footnote)
      4. 2nd worse CDM in Canada
      5. high peak loads worsen management of our water resource and increase GHGs etc
      6 mostly misleading benefits from programmable thermostats, and increasing, not decreasing generation capacity needed.
      If profits were not effected, why take those positions which hinder customer power costs?
      Perhaps you disagree with my examples?
      I could add more…….huge GHG emissions by Fortis, stated in their reports. Also misleading info showing big on wind and solar which is not true, and uses much coal in some jurisdictions.

      Sure, Fortis is well run and profitable but no or little social
      conscience as to the environment, and customer costs. Churchill said Communism was the worst system in the world, except for Fascism. So too, much worse for customer power cost than Fortis was Nalcor. Npw Nalcor's blunder gets passed to Nfld Power/Fortis to help solve…….time they considered the customer more so than in the past, would you agree? In the end profits come from customers……ignore them at your peril. A new era with the boondoggle MFs in the mix, but NP/Fortis more interested in opportunities to expand. They could do both.
      Good to see you engaged again…….Bruno must be pissed. He has not commented on Marshall yet, and says I am right wing. All is relative.
      Winston

    • WA @ 21:24:

      20%, 30% or 40% – I don't have a feel for the real number, point is though NL Power profit is based on operating expenses, not pass through costs. Their operating expenses are not directly tied to power consumption or purchase price of power and more directly affected by the number of accounts and the infrastructure/resources required to support those accounts. This is similar to operating costs at MF – effectively same at 100% capacity or 50% capacity.

      I don't disagree that CDM etc has been poorly implemented here – but I would argue that should have been more driven by Government than a regulated for profit corporation. NLer's as a whole don't really seem to buy into sustainable living – and this is part of why we allow ourselves to be taken over and over for a ride by government etc.

      Really though, I thought the comments by SM in 2010 saying they wanted no part of MF was a pretty strong statement and should have made people wake up a bit but it was ignored.

      Why NL Power has taken the corporate stance they do, I cant explain – though very successful over the years.

      PENG2

    • As expected, the temperature in France set a new record since 1881, now at 45.9 C , 114.6 F, about 2 C higher than in 2003 when 15,000 died form heat in France and over 70,000 in Europe. Wild fires in Spain much like in Alberta not long ago. June temperatures about 4 c above average. When will Bruno batteries kick in to save the planet, as is his vision, when actually coal is still rampant in use. Is the G20 connecting the dots? Is Fortis, Ball, Ches, And Allison? What is the heat source and Leeds standard for the Corner Brook hospital? Costs over 1000 dollars per sq foot, not peanuts but includes long term maintenance I assume. Is this 740 M over the life of the contract?
      Troublesome is Middle Cove ocean temperature, and anxious as to Conception Bay, which I hope to check tomorrow.
      Winston

    • PENG2, I suggest an increasing number of accounts and infrastructure/ resources needed to service them, as you say, generally means more power consumption…..unless you promote or customers use CDM. Customer awareness is important as to what is cost effective and works. Govn should lead, agreed, but as I suggested before, power companies, the CA, and all in bed together for NO meaningful CDM.
      To blame the customer? NP own polls say customer's main reason wanting CDM is to save money……but who is showing them how?
      The few now watching Stan Marshall now see his superior knowledge on utility power systems. Very very few of the public knew this in 2010. Compare his words today with a single sentence in 2010. But questionable if even in 2010 many would have heeded his advise stated today, given Nalcor and govn PR. But who knows, Stan might have influenced others like Vic Young to go public…….we see he only privately wrote to Ed Martin, who ignored him. Many, many people of knowledge and influence stayed under the cone of silence, PENG2. Stan's statement in 2010 was a pretty weak statement in my opinion, given the gravity of the blunder obvious to him, and th efew naysayers……..and later a crisis he had to step up to.
      He is right that Directors should be well paid, I suggest in the range of 50,000 to 100,000, half of private companies, so part is for the pubic benefit, assuming they are well qualified. Nalcor's original board was poorly qualified to handle MFs.
      Shareholders routinely put motions to bank management for tougher GHG considerations……most always over ruled. So sustainability issues of corporations like banks and Fortis reflects shareholder views. Firms react if it is a risk to their reputation. Reputation is low priority on the risk list, when risk is hidden. We now see the fallout of that with Nalcor as with "wear the jersey" question. A good reputation is hard earned and easily lost, like the church child abuse scandals.
      I think Fortis has chosen take over oppotunity in jurisdictions with lax regulation, for the most part, like Nfld, and have profited greatly. Their standard is too low to be a target by Buffett's Berkshire, I suggest. Too bad, and needs reflection on that I suggest, as more invest with ethical motives, and not just the max return.
      I have not increased nor decreased modest holding of Fortis that I manage…..as I see no improvement in their GHG emissions, and grows worse. I see no evidence of any positive change.
      Winston Adams

    • WA @ 23:38:

      Agreed that unlikely in 2010 anyone would heed – history has proven that. We also know of 40yrs of advice that the Anglo-Saxon route wasn't optimal and maybe even irresponsible – what do you think changed that in 2013(only government policy in my mind)?

      Not sure I agree that CDM affect the number of accounts and thus reduces infrastructure – CDM would primarily affect volume of consumption, and volume of consumption isn't the main driver of NL profit.

      I still have trouble accepting that it is the responsibility of for-profit corporations to provide policy.

      To my mind, the litmus test is that in 2007 if SM has been recruited to Nalcor would we have MF – I'd offer no, and I think this is the root cause. So, the alternate question (and infact the real question to be answered) is why was EM put into position and not a SM or VY or AB?

      PENG2

    • Very few technical people knew that the Anglo Saxon route was irresponsible. Only this inquiry has convinced me that the project pushed by Danny Williams was unstoppable,that it was a moving train, not subject to reason. Did Danny convince Gilbert, or the other way around? Gilbert, very intelligent, but was out of his league with no utility experience, and learning as he goes. He seem to think he knows all, but obvious lack Stan experience and application even of "Rule of Thumb" would have ruled our Muskrat.
      No CDM does not much influence number of accounts, but reduces infrastructure cost and much reduces new additional generation assets, and can permit additional accounts with less capacity.
      Private corporation can and do influence policy. Fortis CEO Perry 2 years ago visited Ball and advised to go slow on carbon taxes, if I recall correctly a Telegram report. Who holds back policy of imposing a sugar tax to advance health and nutrition, even in schools and at the Janeway?
      Agree, if SM was recruited to Nalcor in 2007 we would not have this blunder, but that would require SM then taking a 90 % cut in salary and benefits. Doubt if he would have accepted, even if offered. Why EM? Good question. Because Danny is as stunned as me ass, as the song goes, as to utility power systems. Thought cable and power lines were equivalent…….both are lines they hang on poles.
      The litmus test for Stan, I think, is safety of the North Spur. As a geotechnical engineer,do you still consider it insufficiently safe?
      Winston Adams

    • Should read "Only very few technical people knew that the Anglo Saxon route was irresponsible ( so the 40 years of advise never reached the public) and fell on deaf ears……is that why the old guard at Hydro was pushed out?

    • Winston, I see you have found your love, PENGzero.

      The Anglo Saxon is Danny's dream for those stunned enough to still be wondering at this point! No one else is racist and stunned enough to call it that!

      Any COMPETENT utility would invest HEAVILY on DSM because they know that deferring the construction of a single power plant has saved the UTILITY billions of dollars. You and your troll love can keep titilating one another with your bullsit but the fact remains DSM would have saved Nalcor 15 billion minus about one billion for a good DSM program instead of MF.

      You and PENG zero deserve one another with your bloviating.

    • Bruno, you act like a jilted lover, upset that I engage more with PENG2 than you. But remember, we do have a common interest is stating some facts, besides opinions, and we can both do arithmetic, a requirement for the iron ring.
      And you go in a spin, claiming DSM of 1 billion would save 15 billion on MFs, but recently claiming Bruno batteries and wind was the salvation, then too advocated for native gas use.
      And you seem to be reading my mail, as to DSM and CDM benefits, but you little understand it.Not once have commented on Synapse, nor Efficiency NS achievements.
      Heavy spending for DSM and CDM is an investment for and by customers, via Efficiency Corp, at arms length from the power companies, funded by small surcharges on customers bills. Not sure of PENG2 is aware of that.
      Utility investment as you suggest, decreases revenue and profit for the power company, and so must be issued a directive in most cases, by government or the PUB , whoever has authority, unless like Take Charge, it is for PR, token efforts for show.
      CDM and DSM can do much over a decade but are incremental. That plus with wind and island hydro additions would have saved the 15 billion. Perhaps if both you and PENG2 can agree on that, you two can find mutual love, and you stop trolling me.
      Winston

    • I will leave you to your love PENGzero. Neither of you get it! Aggressive demand side management saves the UTILITY (NALCOR) billions by avoiding constructing one plant (see MF!).

      Yes Winston your head may explode but Nalcor may MAKE money by reducing revenue!! That is how aggressive DSM works!

    • Obvious you cannot ignore me Bruno. Imitation they say is the greatest compliment, so you now preach the benefit of demand reduction, as I have done since 2012. Nothing you say on demand reduction to make my head explode. I documented my analysis on reductions and costs. For you , in the past this lagged behind new generation such as wind and wind storage, but now you see the light. Better late than never, but why has it taken you so long.
      Why don`t you write a piece for UG with a MORE FULSOME analysis (to use Gilbert Bennett` s phrase). A good piece would be worth a cash prise. So you now approve of Synapse, it seems. Of course, to be fair, I would offer the prise to PENG2 as well. But no one seems anxious to write for UG on peak demand reduction benefits.
      Winston

    • A friend, who is a competent contractor, watched some of Stan,s testimony on Friday. `So Stan Marshall is now taking credit for everything that has been beneficial, right` he asked. I agreed , that more or less, there was considerable self praise. As one friend used to say often, about his personal views `Don`t mean to brag, just stating facts`. With Stan, we need to be careful to consider facts from from opinion, but certainly he is more transparent than most others we have seen. Strange, few here commenting on Stan `s performance. Is this Inquiry being staged to go out on a high note with Marshall and Ball …….to comfort us on the STRING FINISH concept. Some parties being prevented from questioning Stan, did Leblanc imply.
      Winston

    • Good point Winston. I said I was impressed by his initial time on the stand, but two more days to go, if it goes the full time. Will depend on the lawyers questioning. Irene is not the greatest questioner, but she did say Collins would have a few questions. Now he usually focuses on power lines and reliability. See how that goes. Now Stan can say it was not his job to pause and evaluate, his job from ball was to get the train back on track. I think he needs to be questioned in his naming it a boondoggle, and if he thinks it is a boondoggle, or what did he do to change it to something different. To me a boondoggle is a boondoggle is a boondoggle, no matter what you change the new name to. So what is stands new name for it, and when did it cease being a boondoggle and why. Maybe Stan the man will say it is still a boondoggle, and that might lend him some credibility says Joe blow.

  47. On a slightly different topic, but probably of greater national importance are the ads on google, Utube and I guess on other places on the Internet to influence our Canadian Election coming in the next few months. Have YOU noticed. I listen to music on Utube, Johnny Cash, ABBA, BONEY M, locals as well, etc. And every song you select has a 20 to 30 second ad on the negative side of Trudeau. Who is doing this????? Is it Google, Trumpies USA – GOP, Putins Russia, KING Kong. I want to know. IS it the Conservative party of Canada, The Greens, the NDP??? Or even the Digger or other ultra right wing thinkers. Now if it is the later group, well I guess that is legal, and at least it is by Canadians, and they have the right to do that. But if it is the former group of outside the country influencing our election, then there should be GOD DAM HELL TO PAY. WHere is ICIS, the RCMP, and other Canadian authorities that takes pride in Canada tradition, and the independence of our elections, please stand up. Election interference in the US of a and promoted by trumpie may be acceptable there, by Putin and others, IS NOT ACCEPTABLE HERE. The people have to stand up if the authorities are unwilling. This is a national disgrace to have foreign countries trying to influence Canada's Elections. Joe blow.

  48. The fog lingers around Red Cliff, an area where the Americans had installations during WW2, the big one, Archie Bunker would say. When I moved to this area in 1975 I was surprised to see the remains of buildings, tiles still on the floors in some washroom areas…..how many in Nfld had even seen ceramic tiles in the 1940s?
    My father had a large modern house in the 1920s and 30s,and a pump and running water indoors, before my time, Events in WW2 led to financial disaster for him, and by 1945, and his passing in 1954, our family was on welfare to the early 1960s. I was very accustomed to the outdoor toilet, and the toilet paper was not Cashmiere.
    But that was common in the community, not unusual. Building an outdoor toilet took some skill in construction so it didn't blow over; heavy rocks hidden inside on each side of the hole. My older brother got instructions from an old timer neighbour.
    The TCH was still into the future, the community dirt road was soaked with oil in the summer time to keep the dust down. No one knew of PCBs. To think that the Americans had tile floors in Nfld for barricks decades before.
    Browning Harveys learned of the Pepsi brand that American loved, and tied up the franchise in 1944 we learn this week, celebrating 75 years of sugar drinks. It helps us have the fattest adults and kids in the country, with 9 spoonfuls of sugar in every can of regular brand.
    I read this morning that mussels are cooking and dying in their shells along 140 miles stretch of California, happening more often, while on the other side, asphalt melts in Germany from the heat wave there.
    So, we are lucky yet, moderate temperatures and fog nearby for free air conditioning. Perhaps by August I will use the AC mode of my heatpump at the cottage.It will add a little to the summer grid load, and assist rate mitigation.
    Winston Adams

  49. Consider this; the new dawn, (1980s-2000s), of the offshore cash stream is but a credit card exercise. Once our Leaders realized that money would be coming in for the next 30, 50 years or so, a shopping list was generated to access "our share" of the $s credit. The root question should be; Why did the Leaders choose Lower Churchill power development over other socio-economic options?

  50. They chose it because the little man with the big head and ego to match, wanted to give the finger to Quebec,and most of the population were more than happy to agree.But that's ok because, although NS ended up with the gold mine,we got the shaft.

  52. Danny L'il Trump and minions, we know you read these comments, cause the smoke from the little arsehole's hair catching on fire is visible over Doran's Lane. When ya goin' to rattle UG's cage with a great big law suit?

  53. Breaking news….Omg it's official, trumpie and kimmy are back together again, this time not in secret, but on short notice. Trumpie said he was willing to cross the demilitarized line if kimmy would meet him again. He is willing to go out again for kimmy and express his undieing love publically, even after meeting in secret with Vladamere. He was slso very pleased and rejubilitated that Obama had begged Kim for a meeting in secret, for years, but kimmy always refused, as he said there was no chemistry between them. But trumpie has the charm, the negioating skills to bring about a personal relationship with kimmy, and dam the rest of the world, NK and the USA too, just for the pleasure of shaking his hand just one more time. Dam the torpedoes, necular weapons and all just to be nice to kimmy and some day soon he may come to Maralago, even if just for a brief one night stand, since the great ayatollah of Iran turned him down flat. Trumpies love life has again taken centre world stage and not with the Hollywood movie stars this time, seems he now prefers the opposite sex. Joe blow reporting.

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