Previous PlanetNL instalments have detailed how the uneconomic
Muskrat project threatens to destroy NL Hydro and ratepayers or, if the subsidy
route is chosen, Government and taxpayers. The painful third alternative
is to choose to stop the project and have the Premier call on Ottawa to act
fully and promptly on the murky Federal Loan Guarantees of $7.9B.
issues remain. Ratepayers still face large rate increases and the
Provincial Government must record a total loss of equity. Emera would
suffer contractual losses and demand compensation. Ottawa would be
divided on whether to act as many other provinces will not support the
bailout. A substantial and raucous debate is sure to erupt whenever
Ottawa publicly considers this request.
…………………….
How Weak is the Muskrat Business Case?
The decision to stop the project is simple. Due to
inevitable rate increases already set into motion before Muskrat completion,
electricity demand on the island of Newfoundland is sure to fall to levels that
make Muskrat power completely unnecessary within the province (along with the
Holyrood thermal plant Muskrat was intended to replace). There is no
longer an in-province energy justification for the project – it will be
completely surplus to local needs. Nalcor and Government simply never
factored in demand elasticity or accurate demographics and remain in denial of
these fundamental laws of economics.
revenue opportunity from Muskrat. Nalcor forecasts export revenue of
about $50M annually as shown in their October 3, 2017 RFI response reviewed
in detail in PlanetNL3. As developed in that last post, Government will
find itself having to inject a $500M subsidy into Hydro to enable Nalcor to
earn the $50M revenue on power exports. That’s an exceptionally bad
business model that threatens to be repeated for 50 consecutive years.
Digging deeper into that RFI response, issues of subsidy
aside, Nalcor’s forecast of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) costs alone are found to
begin at over $120M in 2021 and grows steadily from there. Here lies the
other core flaw of the business case – one that always proves fatal.
and see little or no chance of market turnaround will quickly decide to stop
operations rather than continue to lose money. They will either scrap
their assets for salvage or just walk away. Whether the project is
paid-off or still in construction is immaterial. Equity is written off
and remaining debt becomes a pure liability without asset-backing, poisoning
the balance sheet.
Everything that can’t be sold or moved for use elsewhere is a
sunk cost.
defunct mines, paper mills, and fish processors that have made exactly those
decisions when boom times go bust. Canada as a whole has a long history
of the same. The Provincial and Federal Governments have participated in
many business busts in the past and the decision to stop Muskrat should be as
obvious as any example before it.
The massive structures at the Muskrat Falls generation site
will be too costly to demolish.
billions for a removal project. In the short-term, the structures and
site must be tidied up, powered, lit, heated in places and steadily maintained
to prevent them from decaying into public safety and environmental
hazards. A large fence must be built around the site, the grounds kept
up, and 24-hour security provided – our province’s very own Chernobyl-lite.
Consultants would perform routine inspections to certify
structural stability and recommend any modifications and maintenance. A
guesstimate annual budget to maintain the site is $30M, likely to be covered by
NL Hydro ratepayers. Longer-term, this cost threatens to grow as the site
ages therefore a remediation project to permanently stabilize the structures
and reduce public safety hazards would be sought at a probable cost of up to
$0.5B if it can substantially eliminate the annual costs.
transmission lines that if not maintained will eventually collapse or be the
target of vandalism and metal-scavengers. Removal of the wires and
towers will be a practical and urgent necessity. There may also be
reasons to take up the Strait of Belle Isle subsea cable, remove the terminal
stations at the Straits Crossing and downsize or eliminate the Soldier’s Pond
substation. A budget of $1.0B is a reasonable first guesstimate.
mothball decision made later, more new capital will be required, entirely on
the Province’s tab. Continuation of construction also includes
substantial risk of new overruns. Continuation also ensures more
equipment is installed at the facility, resulting in increased remediation
scope and reduction in the salvage value of materials that could have been
diverted before delivery. These additional costs in the billions cannot
be justifiably incurred to complete a project that will bleed money in
perpetuity. The time to stop now.
Without a federal bailout of the $7.9B loan guarantees, the
self-destruction of the Province is destined to end up a costlier national
problem. Ottawa must ultimately decide whether calling in the
Muskrat loan guarantee is a necessary preventative measure against more serious
financial peril.
out the Newfoundland project. Quebec had definite misgivings of a
competing project being de-risked by Ottawa when they received no such direct
benefit on their latest hydro projects. Ontario, which earlier this year
executed a $20B+ electricity rate reduction financing scheme of its own, might
demand its share of relief from Ottawa. Then there are dubious ongoing
hydro projects in British Columbia and Manitoba where their Governments may
seize an opportunity for Federal backing on abandonment of their projects with
less harm to their ratepayers and taxpayers.
Nova Scotia and Emera will be faced with significant direct
losses. Ottawa will have to pick up the Federal Loan Guarantee of $1.3B
made to Emera on the Maritime Link project: they will scornfully look east to
Newfoundland for compensation on their balance of lost capital costs.
Besides that, Nova Scotia’s plan to close their coal burning thermal generation
plants will be delayed by years and they must go back to the drawing board for
another solution.
be seeking to extract other pounds of flesh. Threats may arise to
expropriate offshore oil equity holdings and royalties, the recall block of
Upper Churchill, possibly the Province’s entire Upper Churchill holdings, and
possibly NL Hydro itself. None of these should make sense to Ottawa as
the worsening of the already precarious Newfoundland economy would accelerate
the Province toward insolvency and an even more costly general economic bailout
would follow.
Comparison to Other Provinces with Failing Hydro Projects
As mentioned above, other provinces are simultaneously
building major hydro projects that, like Muskrat, have a high probability of
being completely redundant for in-province energy demand and loss-leaders for
export revenues. However, they differ hugely when measured by their risk
to ratepayers and society.
useful purpose might raise BC rates by about 1c/kwh, keeping their rates close
to the average Canadian price. Manitoba might not incur much higher an
increase if its projects fail yet they would still have below average price
electricity. Hydro Quebec could swallow their pride on their latest
projects, raise their rates by only a fraction of a cent and still have the lowest
rates in the country. The ratepayers and taxpayers of those provinces
won’t be nearly as seriously affected by their price of failure as in
Newfoundland.
Newfoundland’s comparatively small size cannot absorb the blow
of a publicly funded megaproject disaster. Even after the Federal Loan
Guarantees are called upon, the Province’s responsibility for lost equity,
interest expenses, and mothballing expenses will take a heavy toll.
Electricity rates are virtually certain to become the highest in the country
causing considerable personal hardship for many. NL taxpayers will
further bear the burden of at least $4B of additional net public debt, widening
annual deficits and decreasing quality of essential government services.
leadership in demonstrating to Ottawa and other provinces that these high-risk
projects are not all equal and that the peril and folly of Muskrat is entirely
unique in its severe and long-lasting socio-economic impact. The Muskrat
bailout is imperative and does not imply that any other province should receive
the same consideration.
Prime Minister the urgency and peril of the situation and there is no evidence
that he has yet done so. This inaction makes him directly responsible for
the ongoing potential billions in additional losses that will accrue solely to
the Province’s debt. The Premier must appeal to the Prime Minister to
make this matter an urgent priority, so the project can be stopped at the
soonest possible date.
While the Premier’s public message has consistently been to
finish the project, we can hope he is rational enough to consider the
cancellation alternative proposed here. According to data found in a
just-released Oversight Committee quarterly report, there is $2.5B left unspent
as of the end of September. A substantial part of this could presumably
be saved to fund the post-cancellation requirements. Completion
will exhaust those funds and needlessly waste billions more.
demonstrate why full abandonment is the best option; the Provincial issue of
power backup is reviewed, not additional power supply plus some closing
comments on the tangle with Emera and Nova Scotia.
and Recommend Reading
Select PB-651 for the Oct.3, 2017 response with
detailed PPA costs 2021-2070
Select PB-555 for the Aug.31, 2017 response with
detailed Dividend projections 2021-2070
Manitoba Hydro and BC Hydro were reviewed to assess rate impacts
and trends (hyperlinks not included)
1, 2017 can be found here. Numerous submissions to the Inquiry were also
examined (hyperlinks not included)
Province pitching the Muskrat problem to Ottawa should be sure to have read
this book: Brand Politics: Canadian Politics and Democracy in the age of Message Control by Alex Marland.
PlanetNL
information from Nalcor and Government, PlanetNL, having a suitable analytical
background, is presenting independent research and calculations. This is a spare time activity outside of
regular professional commitments. All
key information used to develop the views and analysis are publicly available. The analysis cannot avoid entering public
policy space: if Government or Nalcor wish to refute the analysis, they are
welcome to present an open and honest rebuttal.
This piece paints a picture where Danny`s Dream will become a nightmare.
I had long believed that neither the MF generation plant nor the transmission line to the island was necessary. This piece predicts that with increased power rates there will be no island demand for this MF power, nor for the Holyrood generation station (now operating at about 350MW on average in winter)
On my quest to monitor and document real performance in our climate of cost effective minisplit heat pumps, periodically for 24 hours I switch from heatpump, back to baseboard heaters and again to heatpump ….to measure seasonal comparative COP (Coefficient of Performance). At midnight I switched to baseboard heaters from HP, being now at about midpoint, where nighttime temperatures reach the freezing point. I will note the COP for 8 hr intervals and for the full 24.
For overnight to 8am: baseboard heaters used 14.39kwh, whereas the prior night the HP used 4.29 kwh, so a COP of 3.35.
I expect the next 8 hours will show a COP of 5 or more and the evening about 4………due to the much superior daytime performance from solar attic gain for the HP.
Recall that domestic heating is the largest island winter load, and was the justification for Muskrat.
With a substantial uptake already happening in this heating technology, Holyrood being unnecessary, as stated in this piece, will become a reality, due to the elasticity effect of higher power rates, and cost effective alternatives to baseboard heaters. This trend started in NS in 2008, and was predictable for here. It was ignored.
Winston Adams
WA:
As far as I know, no driven/screwed/drilled piles on the existing 230kV or the inprogress line.
Thus topside weld quality isn't an issue on either line.
PENG2
Too little, too late for us now. Either we use MF's and pay the bills through taxation and Hydro rates or mothball it and declare bankruptcy. This is the result of social engineering by trying to create false economies though government projects. This is the humpteenth time this has happened in nl and it is seen across all industries from oil refining, railroads, paper mills, the civil service GBS systems, fish plants, mines, agriculture, greenhouses and now hydro. It is time for a rationalization of NL society and we must start immediately.
Agree with some of what you are saying…but you can lump muskrat in with all the others, whether they were success of failures. Muskrat stands alone by its sheer cost to nl, the ability to bankrupt us, as you said. Sprung was just over 20$ million, peanuts, compared to muskrat 15$ billion. We have many years of success with the oil refinery and paper mills, never agreed with you on Hibernia GBS, fish plants provide a good living for many persons over the years. You are trying to compare watermelons with peanuts, size wise, ….sorry…
Yikes! It has been obvious for those of us that looked at this project in detail that it is a financial disaster. Even so this in depth analysis of the costs incurred if this project "finishes fast" is frightening.
Quantifying what will be the loss, 450 million a year for 50 years (or should that be 57 years, the term of the MF amortization?) will be crushing for the NL economy. The ratepayer will be hammered making life miserable for the poor and old.
Without a functioning Opposition and with an indolent media Ball continues to live in an alternative reality. None of the facts outlined here and from other UG posts is acknowledged by Ball's Byes or the Nalcor Nincompoops. They live in the "alternative facts" universe.
Ball will continue to squander the future of NL as quickly possible unless someone….anyone, confronts this government (and the last) with the reality of what they are doing. Who will ACT now to insist NL stop the Muskrat Madness?
Moving from understanding to action will take courage. It cannot happen from the shadows. Some brave soul(s) will have to bridge the two realities.
It would also be interesting to have Planet NL estimate the cost of the likely failure of the spur on the cost of the MF disaster.
I suggest that those who are considering necessary change in the political power structure in NL, turn out and meet a real Newfie bye; Jagmeet is coming home. Maybe inclusiveness has been presented an opportunity.
In PlanetNL3 the analysis concluded that projected dividends on Muskrat Falls will not be paid and no recovery will take place on the province’s equity investment of at least $4 billion. The fixed and variable costs of the project will be more than double the present revenue requirements of $700 million annually. A reasonable estimate of demand elasticity is -0.4 which means that demand will decline from 7,000 GWH to 4,200 GWH. It also means that the additional revenue will be negligible, less than $100 million. If demand is more elastic (say -1.2) then revenues will actually decline. This means that when rates are raised revenues fall, and this prospect is, in my mind, highly likely.
Can the province absorb the increased cost which will add $700-800 million to its annual operating budget? PlanetNL4 concludes that this will not be possible and that there is no option but to mothball the project. Not only will the province be unable to cover the increased revenue requirements. It is worse than that. We will not be able to cover the operating costs which will start at $143 million in 2021. Export revenues will not come close to this. Nor will revenues from domestic sales.
In previous discussion on the merits of continuing the project the focus was on comparing the cost of continuing with the project versus those of stopping it. This was part of the task assigned by the new NDP government in BC to its Utilities Commission (BCUC) which reported on October 31. Public policy decisions on the future of Muskrat Falls must surely be based on a wide range of factors, including both demand and cost considerations. The fiscal situation of the province, combined with the economics of the Muskrat Falls project, lead to the conclusion that the project may have to be abandoned.
David Vardy
David is it enough to document the decline and fall of the province you love? Bold leadership often comes from the least likely places.
I keep asking you the same question and you have yet to respond. There is no one better informed or better placed to move from analysis to political action. Will you meet the challenge?
Also, it has been alleged that prior to Stan Marshall coming on board that Nalcor had been underestimating and delaying the public release of updated increases in the project costs (and overestimating the demand, oil prices, etc.) and in that way helping politicians ensure that the project got sanctioned and also to ensure that the money kept flowing.
Has anything changed?
Everyone knows that public opinion on the need, affordability and risks associated with Muskrat has changed and this has upped the ante with respect to political (and financial) risks associated with the Ball government's continued support for this project.
No doubt that is well understood by both Ball and Marshall, and I would suggest that that is why we have seen no updated project cost estimate since June.
The removal of Ed Martin was no more than the 'new' Ball government changing horses.
Government has merely changed colour. We are being fed the same old same old. Both Ball and Marshall are following Nalcor's long established deceit-by-delay/omission playbook.
Maurice A:
I did have a look at your sketch off the downstream MF slope—and am still chewing it up a bit. I would offer that since it is an underground slope the angle of repose does change due to buoyancy.
I will do a bit more of a look over and analysis and reply off line to you.
PENG2
PENG2: —- Look forward to your reply (and was/is aware that the slope stability was/is affected by virtue of it being underwater — but the effect is likely both ways). And where is the analyses of that effect?
Maybe Ball should do the same;
https://ipolitics.ca/2017/11/12/site-c-project-peril-horgan-sends-ministers-north/
How best to deal with the dirt movers lobby? The picture of the Muskrat site above, confirms that such Hydro development is a carbon intensive activity. Who has computed the GHGs? I also do not see any solar collection/geothermal alternative RE component. Where is the transmission connection to the North side and NL/QU grid? was this intentional? yada, etc.
As if we needed more evidence that politics in NL, federal and provincial, is a soul destroying, ethics free zone it just got worse.
Pete Soucy, the guy who was purged from VOCM for speaking truth to power about MF and Grieg's Frankenfish plans, has had a conversion on the road to Ottawa.
Pete wants you to know that despite rumours that he has done a 180 degree turn on Grieg "nothing could be farther from the truth"! Pete says he is just better informed now about using the mutant fish, banned in most jurisdictions and pesticides banned in places with a functioning regulatory system.
Pete just now believes that the "escape proof nets" are foolproof and the salmon will not swim upstream to spawn if they do escape!!!! No problem with this third world enterprise now according to Pete.
This is unbelievable even to a hardened cynic. And don't forget he has not flip flopped, he is just in training to be the next NL politician to put party above political integrity. I guess Pete feels one can't make a 180 without a moral rudder. He will just drift with the political tides.
Like Pete's magic salmon, he will not swim upstream against the current. NL deserves better politicians.
Forensic audit is the only real way to get to the bottom of this scam. When were the cost overruns known and who delayed the release of that information so that it appeared too late to stop the project. There is a smoking gun somewhere I'm sure.
Don't worry Quebec will buy from us for half the price but not until we take the full brunt of the bill…planned from the start I'd say…we all wondered how this happened to us 60 years ago with upper Churchill, the mistake was thinking we ever had a choice..
Come on bobby boy …blow it out…
From the article… "The Newfoundland and Labrador Government must show wise leadership…"
Considering their generally chronic history as either dim-witted, partisan fools or dodgy, greed-driven skeets, it's fairly safe to say that wisdom is a genetic trait that most NL politicians just didn't manage to evolve.
So I wouldn't hold my breath expecting that lot to demonstrate any semblance of "wise leadership" at this late juncture…
Really, from an insider with detailed info on the budgeting—this is not a piece based on fact or reality. Outside the section on the initial business case for MF being deeply flawed, the remainder is the result of a poor analysis and devoid of factual input/data.
PlanetNL would have been well served to read their own qualifier at the end—they are using publically available info and have no info provided by Nalcor or the government on the true internal status; though using best available, their analysis should be considered iffy at best.
The current status is that we have as a taxpayer committed upwards of $12B and spent $10B—at this point we either default or complete. Granted there are other lessor risks, but at this point the effect of the unforeseen risk into the cost scenario are shrinking by the day.
Nothing can change this current status—as a population, our 3 choices are:
1) complete at $15B; assess various operational scenarios
2) mothballing at $10B+ $1-2B cancellation fees plus mothball costs including possible default or compensating NS/Emera accordingly
3) abandon at $10B+$1-2B cancellation fees plus abandonment costs this ensures a default
All reading this need to understand that there wont be any sort of bailout by the feds—we made our own bed on this, rather we allowed our gullibility to lead us down the garden path by a snake oil salesman…
For reasons I have previously stated and noone has refuted, the wisest conclusion is to complete and reconsider operational scenarios—with these scenarios there is no win for us NL taxpayers. However, at least by completing we have some opportunity to remain solvency and direction of our future, bleak as it may be.
PENG2
Many have refuted your "inside info" that ignores the main thrust of the PlanetNL case, The 450 million a year operating loss.
The "lessor risks" you refer to ignores the spur failure possibility and the commissioning glitches sure to follow Nalcor's usual path.
It is counter intuitive to want to complete then abandon unless one has a stake in drawing down the last few billion from the treasury before one moves on to the next boondoggle.
Bruno:
Redo the math—the $450M PlanetNL talks about is a combination of capital and operations costs.
The capital is already spent no matter what option is chosen—so the effect of MF operations on 'only' $150M/yr, we as the NL taxpayers will still be paying $350M/yr no matter what to drawdown the capital expense.
Also, no one has made any attempt to refute what I have explained clearly—just yourself ignoring facts.
I have not suggested operations at anytime, just do what is necessary to avoid default and reconsider all options then.
Nothing has been presented here or elsewhere that changes that—no posting has refuted the 7 reasons I posted months agos that completion is the only option at this point in time.
Your attempts as skewing the debate with possibility of dam failures, voodoo economics, and a complete ignorance of construction status etc, dont add anything to the debate for us NL taxpayers—not even sure why your are involved in this being from NS that stands to gain from this debacle.
PENG2
Sorry peng2 …you are showing your true colours with your last line…you loose credibility as soon as you go down that road….where a guy hails from, it's his opinion or what he has written should be the discussion, and not his location, …and this is every Canadian citizens business, the Feds have put in 8$ billion, and some including plane nl is asking Ottawa to for go the loan, not to mention how ns is depending on this boondoggle for their power.
Anoy @ 15:18:
I agree, not particularly professional on my part, however sometimes those things need to be said. I have no issue entering a fair debate, but I will not be slandered by Bruno who refuse to debate facts.
Check out Bruno's resume from CNRL, Baker Lake, Alderon, Tar Ponds etc. He will start spewing the anti-anything but delve into being a construction expert when the enviro plea fails. He is similar to Green Peace in that respect.
I disagree that this is the feds problem—it is our problem 100% unless we default. We pleaded with the feds and they guaranteed the loan(all the feds input into this is their guarantee allowed us a cheaper interest rate, no capital invested by them at all), the feds nor any other province have any capital invested in this; in other words the entire $10B and other $1-2B spent/committed is entirely NLer money.
NS will get their cheap power—their guaranteed power is to be taken from our existing supply, not MF. The NS supply is not contingent on MF being operational or us having surplus power—we will be on the hook to NS for either cash or power, nothing changes that except default.
There seems to be a lot of confusion in the public of NL concerning all the intricacies of this agreement DW sold us….
at the end of the day, it is only us NLers who have spent any money on MF, everybody else is protected unless we default—the UC didn't cost us anything, but now we and we alone are paying dearly for the MF folly.
PENG2
Yes, agree with what you are saying…but without the Feds loan guarantee, I doubt muskrat would have gone ahead, although dunderdale was ready to go ahead with the loan guarantee, but when Harper drew it up, not in our favor, and we have to be at deaths door, before the Feds start paying, she was so desperate, she would have signed anything. The Feds also called it a loan to boost the Atlantic provinces economy, if ns were not included in the overall deal, I doubt we would have gotten the loan guarantee. As for ns getting their power from existing power those granting that should be strung, quartered and hung for public display… The buggers and traitors.
Should read, go ahead WITHOUT the loan guarantee…
Anoy @16:21/24:
Make no doubt about it—MF was going to be executed come hell or high water once Oct 21, 2003 passed; loan guarantee has no bearing on proceeding. Kathy was only delivering the message, DW made the decision in 2003 or maybe earlier that it would proceed, he was pulling the strings at DG3….
Keep it clear that the feds loan guarantee is just that—they simply allow us to borrow their spending power to get a lower interest rate. I am not so convinced that the feds are a guarantor (as the public thinks they are) on the loan in that they will pay if we default.
Harper calling it a loan to boost the economies out this way was a line of BS—the majority of the contracting monies went out of the region, that is for sure.
PENG2
So what you are saying confirms the belief that Danny selected Kathy to be his successor right from the start, and to have her appointed by him as a caretaker premier, until they got an elected one was a hoax, as most believed at the time. Yes, well aware of the savings in the Feds lower interest rate. Well read the agreement to see under what conditions the Feds will take over the loan, even if we default and under what conditions, and may be a political decision, depending who is in power in Ottawa at the time it might occur, and if we have a strong cabinet member in Ottawa instead of the dim witts we have now, Judy may have been an exception.
Well, well PENG2 your bigotry and xenophobia explains a lot about your close minded, fact free,self serving analysis. Build it and run (because the project will not!)seems to be your MO.
For the record I am a stakeholder and was fully engaged with the JRP where it became apparent MF was a boondoggle that would cripple NL financially and likely drown my friends there. It takes a special kind of sycophant to earn income from a project they know is an economic boondoggle for an unneeded vanity project for a megalomaniac.
According to you I peddle conspiracies of" dam failures, voodoo economics, and a complete ignorance of construction status". When you ignore real, well documented risks like dam failure you display both your bigotry and close minded, self serving analysis. Could it be that with native sons like you, Danny,the elder Crosby, betraying their birthright for personal gain that is the problem ?
You will have to inform me about "CNRL, Baker Lake,". I have no idea what you are ranting about. I have been involved in NL politics since 1990 warning of the social impacts of politically inspired ecologic destruction. You were working and rationalizing boondoggles for personal gain in the same timeframe.
I have a long history of concern for our collective well being. You have a long history of putting self interest above the interests of your peers.
Bruno – Your commentary is crossing a lot of lines and is becoming insulting to NLers in general. If you can't be any more civilized than that, you just stay quiet about MF and NL.
Now the bully is whining he is being bullied by St. John's!
http://vocm.com/news/city-imposing-unreasonable-demands-on-galway-williams/
Williams who thumbs his nose at the bylaws and built Gall Way against the planning guidelines and bullied the planning department to ignore the buffer to the TCH, thinks he should not be bound by development agreements.
Is it not funny that asked to comply with the rules Danny turns into what Bill Maher calls a "whiny little bitch"?
It certainly seems like DEWy is on edge. With each passing day the MF madness unfolds adding a little more tarnish to his shine… whatever that remains. Any delays can't be good for the Galway development and its investors so I would say the pressure is mounting. Maybe he needs to be sued for imposing an unreasonable rate increase on us.
Bruno – What is your deal. You are a poisonous influence in the way you involve yourself in NL politics. We don't need more venomous rhetoric in NL. We need civilized and meaningful dialogue based on accurate information. If you are trying to be helpful by involving yourself in NL politics, it isn't working.
This analysis,of Planet NL, is I think , a worst case situation.
Lets look at future power demand with increased rates:
Most houses in Nfld are electric heat, using about 60 percent of the total for heat.
The balance is for essentials:stove, hot water, lights, fridge and deep freezer, TV and misc…….so this component is almost inelastic, so rising rates will little effect that.
The balance for space heat is very elastic, and cost effective alternatives are available.
With electric efficient heat, savings is 60 percent. So on an overall domestic bill , this represent a 36 percent reduction in energy use. But lets assume a lesser reduction for the whole grid of 30 percent,when rates increase, so 7000GWH drops to 4900. At rates of 10 cent per kwh, this gives a revenue of just 490 million , instead of 700 million, but at 20 cents it gives 980 million revenue, an increase of 280 million.
With efficient heat and 36 percent reduction per house, 20 cent rates equal 20 X .64 = 12.8 cent per kwh power equivalent cost, so not shocking.
With 25 cent rates, the revenue would be 1.22 billion, so a 520 million increase in revenue.
Now for domestic use, with 36 percent reduction in energy use, this gives 25 X .64 = 16 cent per kwh equivalent power cost…………and just what Dunderdale predicted! Only difference being, if this makes any sense, that a robust energy efficiency program is needed,island wide, not the Take Charge joke we endure., and which should have been done in 2012, and saved us all a bundle.
Is there not merit in this………not to suggest this is a complete solution, but Hawaii has 30 cent rates and New York….what 23 or something……..we pay too much attention to rates instead of the final household bill, with meaningful conservation and efficiency, and Demand Side Management, like say Nova Scotia has been doing since 2008!
Winston Adams
Your analysis Winston is based on some "inelastic assumptions" and frankly make me and most folks dizzy trying to follow your math.
You miss for example the flight of the population under the tax and energy burden and what will happen to demand when the population drops quickly? The other you deem inelastic can in fact become much more efficient with any concern for DSM. Evolving white goods standards like the federal Energy Star program will reduce consumption of appliances everywhere.
The point Winston is that narrow assumptions lead to poor analysis. For a case study see Muskrat Falls.
Burno, I suggest you brush up on energy conservation and efficiency.
1. Energy Star is not a high standard.
2. If your house is electrically heated, a Energy Star fridge, deep freeze, indoor lights, stove, washer, microwave, TV, computer, toaster, electric kettle, dryer, even if using 50 percent less electricity than your old appliances, saves nothing on your monthly bill in the heating season. Are you aware why this is so……..
3. Granted a few lines is not a comprehensive analysis. For more details I could refer you to my 3000 word 2012 published analysis. But more telling than my analysis is Nova Scotia being number one in Canada for Efficiency measures, and on track to reduce load by about 500MW, achieving about 50 MW each and every year. What is your opinion of their results for this….
4. How can you speak for OTHERS being dizzy following my math…….you being dizzy……..well yes,maybe if addition and multiplication you find hard……clarify which….
5. Of course , any figure for elasticity requires assumptions, such as your assumption of the impact of the flight of the population. Nflders tend to stick to this rock, or go for a while and come back……..you seem to prefer Amsterdam, you say, with cafes, but I, and many others prefer the community wharf, and watch the boats come in,or the whale or ice berg in the distance. Certainly double the power rates without meaningful reduction in energy use by cost effective means, impacts our standard of living.
Ok some basics: our government borrows 100,000.00 per Nfld family for MF, for 60 cent cost power,with MF on average may deliver 500MW.
NS instead, spends 3 cents per kwh to reduce load by 500MW.
Is that a hard concept or difficult math to determine which is more cost effective.
You, like Russell at the Telegram seem to think that imaginary savings with LED lights is the way to go for Nfld, where one must tackle the huge energy monsters :baseboard heaters, insufficient insulation etc that is the driver of high space heating costs. Perhaps you would do well to get a job with Take Charge, as one of the Scallywags, promoting false energy savers.
But serious…….brush up on energy efficiency and conservation………you should know better, or strive to know better on that issue.
But…….keep your stick on the ice, and say your sorry to PENG2, calling him `not human`……..a low blow!
Cheers
Winston
A lesson on The deception of false energy savings(the math suitable for 10 year olds)……
A 10 x 10 room has a heat loss needing 1000 watts. This is supplied by a 1000 watt baseboard heater having 90 percent of its heat dispersed by convection and 10 percent by radiant heat.The heating circuit shows 1000 watts of load, 1 kw , so over 24 hrs it shows 24 kwh for heat.
Now 10 lamps are put in the room, each with old style bulbs of 100 watts each, putting out 90 percent heat by convection and 10 percent by radiant heat.The heat from these bulbs is the same total as the heater, so it allows the baseboard heater thermostat to cut out the heater. But we still have 1kw connected total load supplying equal heat as the heater, but it is now the bulb heat instead of the baseboard, and the energy is still 24 kwh in 1 day, so no energy is saved on the bill, and would not be expected to be saved on the energy bill.
Then,along comes a scallywag, with LED lights that are guaranteed to save 75 percent on energy compared to the old bulbs,(and marked Energy Star).This scallywag convinces you this will save you 75 percent energy on your bill, so you replace the bulbs, expecting to save a lot of energy.
But these 10 bulbs, as promised , use only 250 watts total energy instead of 1000 watts.
But the room now starts to cool with insufficient heat. The heater thermostat senses this and cycles the baseboard heater on and off, on average using 750 watts to make up the difference as there is so little heat from the new LED bulbs.
The LED bulbs and heater work together in order to maintain the room temperature the same, to prevent cooling.
So together the Energy Star Leds and the heater use 1kw, and also 24 kwh over 1 day.
The result is : Not a single kwh nor one cent in energy saved!
Yet the LEDs truly saved 75 percent on its energy use, as the scallywag promised.But you save nothing on energy during the whole heating season, which in Nfld is almost 12 months of the year.
And that is how Take Charge largely operates to mislead, and people like Bruno is gullible enough to think he is saving energy, with Energy Star LEDs and most appliances.
In technical jargon this is called `interactive effect` or one might say robbing Peter to pay Paul. Is it ethical to promote them as wonderful energy savers in Nfld…………
Do I make my point Bruno…..
Winston
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So you have all the knowledge,on energy efficiency, in your opinion. This blog is about the situation in Nfld, primarily, and outside the heating season here is no more than a month for 90 percent of the houses, and 3 months for a R2000 house.So falsely promoted saving for here, for most Energy Star appliances, is a sham, as far as being meaningful. So what works for our climate is paramount for energy efficiency, not for Florida or North Carolina. Do you dispute that…..,,,,,you must apply what is suitable for the climate.
And best methods for saving energy with minisplits should be a priority to have people avoid problems and not get only half the gains possible. Guess you didn`t read Nfld Power`s study on such units…….a pitiful report that they admitted was not reliable. If that is what you want for Nflders, that you too are a scallywag, and indeed suitable for Take Charge promotions. I thought better of you, perhaps I was wrong. Say it aint`t so, Bruno.
Minisplits can reduce the grid peak load by hundreds of megawatts in winter, and Nfld Power proposed they would reduce by zero……….for the reason that our winter is too severe and that they would all shut down……..which even their consultant did not agree with, but wanted to use that as a CONSERVATIVE approach! This is the kind of BS that is unchallenged here. And you are bored by such things!
Such skullduggery is typical of what got MF sanctioned and too little challenged. You seem to support such tactics or was unaware of it……….which…….
I stick by my belief that when we get shock power rates, residents should know how to heat their houses most cost effectively with reliable methods……..you disagree……..this bores you.
Winston
Winston, agree with you on the pitiful NP report on minisplits and potential to reduce peak load dramatically. Disagree with you on the non-benefit of energy efficient devices (appliances, lighting, etc). As you are a minisplit advocate, you should know that the secondary waste heat from those devices has a COP of 1. Reducing that waste and letting your minisplit supply the heat at a COP of 3 to 5 means you actually will receive about 80% of the energy savings of those devices. The NL climate can be as receptive to such savings as anywhere else. This savings does go largely unrealized in a resistance electric heated home as you suggest. So think of the latent pent up potential for energy reduction in the many homes yet to convert to MSHPs. If you have in your own home already upgraded most of your secondary items to efficient types, then part of your own COP numbers is a little bit enhanced by this fact. If you're yet to make any such upgrades, Black Friday is coming up at Home Depot!
Outside the heating season do Energy Star appliances save money Winston? Little knowledge is a dangerous thing Winston. I don't need elementary lessons on efficiency thanks.
Suit yourself but endless lessons on mini split efficiency and your unusual attic installation method gets redundant. It will also lead many into problems.
Winston I have a hard time understanding your logic about efficiency improvements. It seems that only your pet projects, heat pumps with arcane installation procedures work for you.
Are you really saying that legislated efficiency measures don't work? We may agree that they need to be more aggressive but dismissing them is counterproductive.
Again your assumption that because appliances reduce heating load in NL they are to be ignored is misinformed. Your assumption that NL needs heat for 10 months is exaggerated. Three shoulder months use little heat in NL. In NL one needs to keep the box warm for 9 months, in Florida one needs to keep the box cold for 12 months and siphon off all the appliance heat. How is efficiency more important in NL?
Bruno, congratulations on stating that heatpumps helps save on the efficiency not gained by efficient lights etc.when using resistance baseboard heater……and a added benefit to the HP savings. Not wanting to get into technobabble (your term), I avoided that detail. Glad to see you were or are aware. So basically, in the heating season these lights and appliance savings are missed, but much of it is gained with HPs, so a added bonus. Nfld Power would discourage you from stating that!
Yes, on the world stage efficiency is important everywhere, inckuding Florida, where where efficient ACs and LEDs has synergy.
But for Nfld, with 85 percent of new houses using baseboard, and a winter load for domestic heat alone of 650 MW, reduction of 60 percent or more should be the number one priority as an Isolated Island option, then wind, storage and small hydro adds.
Energy Star is for HPs is weighted with bias for basically North Carolina climate, so COLD CLIMATE is the preferred rating for here and NS. This is a standard imposed by progressive power utilities, not government.
R2000 standard is good but does not require HPs . Both is much, much better: reducing watts per sq ft from 3 down to 1 at -17C measures locally.
I have not monitored heat loads throughout this summer, and perhaps no more than 20 days when no heat was required, typical a little morning warm up. This is evidence based, but jives with weather records of Heat Days.
For a R2000 house, this heat free days approaches 3 months, due to better insulation standards.
The rule of thumb is to assume 60 percent of the days need heat, which is 7.2 months………but this is considerably underestimated for Nfld, for the Avalon where monitored.
Pet projects …….yes, as minsplits are a made in heaven technology for Nfld climate, especially when protected from adverse weather, attic mounted ……so a hybid of solar gain benefit and other advantages.
You call this arcane…..suggesting backwards or stupid or overly difficult (I need to look it up). I see it as logical, commonsense, more efficient,and best practise,now with 7 trouble free years……..and giving performance averaged equal to gnd source (but a little shy on cold snap peak load reduction). But overall very cost effective.
If visiting this area, lets have a coffee, and you can check it out, and maybe become a believer.
I can give the improved energy saving figures, but I risk the blog monitor deletions on this thread.
Winston
Should read `I have now monitored`, instead of not monitored
WA
Arcane ; as to attic mounting………
Arcane can mean: secret, hidden, private, concealed, understood by few, unknowable, mystic, mysterious, unaccountable, hushed, private, murky, perplexing, strange, veiled, unfathomable, unclear vague, puzzling.
Bruno….. Which of those more simple words describe your trouble and dislike of this installation method, which I suggest should be adopted as best method for climates like Nfld.
WA
understood by few, unclear vague.
Winston I have never doubted heat pumps conservation merits. Your heat pump vision in NL is seriously marred. You don't see the flaw with maintaining baseboard heating in 70% of the housing stock. When MF or the LIL goes down for two months those heat pumps are useless without a backup generator. Do you propose everyone have a generator? You need to eliminate the most wasteful energy source for heat, baseboard electric, from the housing stock as soon as possible.
I recommend a locally available, dependable, carbon neutral heat source as a backup, namely wood heat. It is independent of what is sure to be a rocky ten years for having a dependable supply from Nalcor, it is cheap and available and makes work for NL residents. A well designed DSM plan would subsidize conversion to carbon neutral backup wood heat supply.
On the topic of deviations from standard installation configurations… I have seen this mentioned a few times in previous commentary, yet there still appears to be some difficulty with getting a a straight answer from the proponent…
Does mounting the condenser unit of an air-source heat pump in an enclosed space such as an attic void the unit's manufacturer warranty?
Yes or no?
On a related note, I would suggest it behooves those advocating for such non-standard installation configurations… to also assure unwary potential purchasers of such an expensive device that the advocate's recommendations to deviate from the standard installation configuration by installing an air-source heat pump condenser unit in an enclosed space such as an attic… will not in fact void the manufacturer warranty on that unit.
Otherwise… wantonly purveying such potentially harmful advice in public forum would seem a tad irresponsible.
Bruno, ok attic mounting is unclear, vague, and understood by few…….but I did provide a sketch to the PUB some years back, calling it enhanced installation.Is is somewhere in Google with PUB filings……..but should be with contractors.
My heat vision for Nfld is this : 160,000 houses, all saving at least 60 percent on heating energy compared to baseboard heat, and reducing about 2.5 kw each at peak load , so 400 MW reduction = exceeds avg Holyrood winter production.
So no worry about MF going down as not needed. With other efficiency measures we can reduce another 150 MW say and operate solely on island hydro,and some wind.
Meanwhile HPs consume only a third of the fuel from a back up generator when needed, and a small solar array on a house can provide some HP operation for heating.
I assume you have an error saying I wish to maintain baseboard heat in 70 percent of Nfld homes……so,get rid of most all baseboard, except as backup, if a HP fails.
And wood heat is excellent also, but most would chose HP I suggest.
To anom…….on attic mounting being potentially harmful:
1. Mfg calls for wind guards as a min protection on units,or warranty may be voided, I suggested 90 percent or more of installation in Nfld do not have this basic protection, so likely no warranty for compressor failure.
2. Attic mounted cannot just circulate the air, that does not work. Otherwise, the more protected from the elements the better…….even when outdoors.
Advise your name and contact info and I will forward you installation procedure, and you can contact mfgs for their response.
Gnd source Hps are mounted indoors, why not air source when infinite supply of air gets to them.
HPs in warm climates I would not recommend in attics.
Hps have components, electronic circuit boards, compressors etc, outdoors in Nfld is almost like having your fridge or TV outside, although HPs are generally weather protected, but Nfld Power suggesting ALL will shut down in adverse cold weather, is an extreme opinion, but good weather protection of the attic is optimum I suggest, and best guarantee in blizzard or heavy wet snow conditions.
I expect mfg will say attic is fine as long as adequate air flow is maintained.
Winston
Thank you. I must interpret your response as you just don't know if non-standard installation such as attic mounting the condenser unit risks voiding manufacturer warranties, or not.
Understood you're trying to be helpful and I'm sure many on here appreciate it, however… perhaps you should make that particular lack of knowledge known when promoting attic-mounted installation to others who may be considering the purchase of a MSHP.
My work is intended to demonstrate optimum performance for energy efficiency, long life, and reliability. It has been assessed by Nfld power as a unique and high performance installation. They suggested I run the method by AHRI for their assessment whether a preferred method for adverse winter climate.
I suggested they could do so, as I do this monitoring on a part time basis,without compensation, and am not engaged in selling or installing systems.
AHRI is an association of various mfg and suppliers with competing products, for example gnd source people unfaily condemn air source for needing to constantly defrost, etc, Unfair, I suggest, as it depends on location, temperature, RH , and often not a big issue,(considering cost difference) as I have monitored for this effect.
While I take your point, you would do well to question Take Charge for promoting HSPF standard without Cold Climate capability, leaving customers losing thousands of dollars in lost energy savings.
And Nfld Power, using millions of our tax dollars for their promotions, could easily check with mfgs as to your questions. Perhaps you could follow up with them . There are at least a dozen mfs, and Take Charge have time and resources……
My investigations indicate that 90 percent of any problems with MSHP are with installers poor methods, all of which apply to outdoor mounting installation, leaving factory warranty often in doubt, so much depends on the quality of the installer.
But a factory acceptance of attic mounting would be an asset, and I am amazed that none appear to have tried or suggest this for adverse winter climates. I see many benefits but no down side. Advise if you can state any apparent reason why warranty would not apply, and in time I trust your question can be answered. Quantifying performance is time consuming, and I focus there, but I also monitored outdoor installation which gives comparative data. Thanks for your interest.
Winston
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/01/31/drew-hasselback-federal-guarantee-gives-lower-churchill-financing-a-sovereign-touch/
“The benefit of the guarantee was that no one had to look at the merits of the underlying project,” says Steve Halliday, managing director and head of global credit trading and distribution at TD.
Mr. Martis explains. Whatever the future has in store for Lower Churchill itself, there is nothing that can arise that will interfere with the trust’s payment obligations, he adds. “The guarantee of the federal government is just as constant as the rising sun. It’s always there.”
http://www.tomadamsenergy.com/2014/01/31/harper-resurrects-national-energy-program-to-subsidize-muskrat-madness/
The ironclad guarantee the loan guarantee gives the bondholders is interesting. Does the following quote mean that if NL defaults Canada will pay the bondholders?
"The solution was to adopt a “wrap” structure in which the Government of Canada would act like a mono-line insurer. Conditions and terms the government could have used to stall any payouts were dropped. Instead, in the event of a default, investors have direct recourse to the federal government’s consolidated revenue fund."
Of course the costs above the loan guarantee would still be a NL responsibility but if the feds are on the hook for the two loan guarantees there would be a different calculus for MF abandonment decisions.
Bruno, TD provided the lowest rate of interest and secured MF financing , I believe.
As a TD stock holder, it seems my investment is secure, backed by Canada. So, I self stoke you might suggest……
There is prudent investing , then there is Nalcor……..
TD helps me gain +15 percent per year, while Nalcor drags me and the others down.
So few questioned the prudence of Nalcor and MF………I have not sought or made a dime off MF directly,but I have no say on what the banks do. Banks look for security, and was provided by the feds……….so I do not see them as being an enabler…,
Point being: residents should be more concerned how government and Nalcor invests or wastes our tax dollars. We are learning a hard lesson, despite repeated boondoggles in the past.
Investor
All this talk of energy savings is not really going to mean much at the end of the day, I suspect you will see a massive increase in the basic monthly charge. Yes reducing consumption will reduce you bill somewhat, but it will not change the the basic monthly charge increase as its not connected to consumption. This will be Hydro/NP's way of offsetting and demand destruction created from increased rates. The beauty of this plan is it targets every single household, even the ones heating with oil and wood. They have a captured market and we cannot run away. Makes the payback time frame for heat pumps much longer when we pay through increased taxes and basic monthly charges.
If monthly basic charges get too big for those who heat with oil or wood, going off-grid will be a option worth considering. The regime could counter that with carbon taxes on heating oil and increased fees for wood cutting permits. This cat and mouse game will likely continue until those who decide to stay on the island, revolt. Bottom line is that our tiny population will never be able to repay the 30 billion in debts that continue to grow at a billion a year.
Look for an increase in delivery charges along side the rate increase and possible a clean energy charge as well….
The basic charge for having a meter is about 16.00 a month, calculated on the cost of wire from the pole and meter etc, and would require PUB approval to jack up.
Monster houses with 400 amp service gets charged only 5.oo more, yet it can cost a million dollars for that one monster house if their power was coming solely from MF .
Large houses using more than 10kw peak load should have a demand meter, as do commercial buildings, otherwise the wealthy are getting a free ride as to electricity costs while the average home gets no break on that. One of the many loopholes for the rich. Demand meters would encourage conservation by the large house owners, and reduce oil burning at Holyrood……….where is our Consumer Advocate on this…..
WA
Much has been written, much research on the current status of muskrat, and future predictions but it all seems to not matter to ball et al. Month balling muskrat after completion, running it at a lost, or marginal operation seems to be the middle of the road, and we are all complacent at this critical time. Should the givernment not be taking the lead and assisted by Stan the man in coming to the best option for the people now rather than after completion and we find we are worst off than before we started muskrat. Should the government not have economist like Vardy, engineers, and legal bigeals working on this right now, to determine the way forward, or is it simply full speed ahead to finish a boondoggle strong. Have we all gone insane. What hogwash to quote Cathy. I say, shut her down. Default on the the whole shabang. Let them all come sue us. It will be in the courts for years. We have enough power on the island for our use now, considering we are giving ns already existing power. Time to close ranks, admit our folly and try and make the best of a bad situation. Come on bill Barry, where are you. We need patriotically sons and daughters, not self interest bastards, to stand up, do the right thing and clean up this mess. Where are the fighting newfounderlanders. Right on a call to arms. Amen.
Tom Adams in his blog piece refers to ENERGY POVERTY in Nfld as a result of MF, and suggests the feds absorb the full 7.9 billion federal guarantee. He also calls for an agreement between HQ and Nfld on energy storage to permit better operation of MF.
Other provinces and other countries use the term Heat Poverty, when lower income people cannot afford heat for their houses, defines in terms of the percentage of their income.
Here, NDP Member Rogers makes an occasional comment on housing conditions, and we start to see some media issues of Nfld Power disconnecting people who cannot pay their bills.
Affordable heat should be of concern going forward, to be addressed as to power rates, improved energy efficiency and technology for heat, and building codes.
We have one house in the whole province in Flatrock (Flatrock Passive blog) using Passive design, the ultimate in low energy needs.
Seems we await SHOCK Power Rates for any policy and leadership as to energy policy to address heat poverty.
Meanwhile , oil, propane and wood heat supplies are promoting their products and undermining the power companies to gain a bigger portion of the heating market,(in expection of higher electric heat costs), which is detrimental to the electricity consumption.
The power companies should be aggressively promoting efficient electric heat to take market share from oil and propane, and also mitigate climate change from fosil fuel burning……..but instead are content with the status quo, while losing market share.
WA
Look for an increase in delivery charges along side the rate increase and possible a clean energy charge as well….
Can a mod remove this as it was meant to be a response to a post above….
Anything interesting in the budget update regarding Muskrat financing?
What is latest Forecast $ to Startup? Schedule? Contingency?,Staff level reductions? etc.
Nope it was the same old spend, spend and spend some more.
If interest rates spike it'll likely be government by administrative commission, and the inept dimwits and dodgy skeets comprising the bulk of a incompetent, bloated, overpaid government will be told to take a flying f***.
And hooray for that.
Revenue projections failed, because oil prices are under shorting pressures. The Spring budget is in some peril, while Muskrat plugs along. Somebody must roll back the high priced "help" remittances. Give all the embedded contractors a piece of paper, in lieu of pay, that says they have 1,000 shares of the "Asset". This would solve a few problems with the deficit.
I say again, have we all lost our marbles, or is planet nl a lone voice crying in the wilderness, or did he have any marbles to begin with? Everyone can't be right. Nalcor and government is continuing on their merry way as though the future could never be brighter. Are they both living in the same world, or in the same province. Are there alternative facts. Where is the truth. My God they are so far apart, as the average Joe, who do I believe. Are we dealing with evil vs good. Who is evil? Who is good? They both can't be right. In the us of a I still hang with the established media, I believe they are mainly creditable. Trumpie is a pathological liar, Bernie Saunders and others have said this publicially many times. A narcissist and unfit to be president. He should be allowed to live …but not in the White House. We have our very own Chernobyl, according to planet nl, bigger than the Russian involvement the us election, and we go merrily about our business. No investigation started yet, government showing no concern, just finish Chernobyl strong. And we have no independent media, that is the saddest fact of all. Imagine if there were no honest media in the USA, Trumpie would be carrying out daily executions of those who opposed him, the enemy of the public he calls the media. The dictator in the Philippines carries out regular executions of the media, Trumpie meets with him and calls him a great guy. Do the brave media have the same concern here. Why does planet nl remain anonymous, why does most of the contributors to this blog remain anonymous? Are we living in a state of fear, and that is why we merrily go about our daily business as if all were rosy and bright, yes the happy province syndrome. Are we sleep walking to an interment camp or a bright future down the road, as the average Joe, I want to know. Who can speak the truth, or who even cares?
I remain anomymous (and I suspect the majority)because I have family members (mostly my grandchildren) who will be looking for employment. With the vindictiveness of those wielding a lot of clout in this province I truly fear for their wellbeing.
We are heading for financial disaster in this province all because of a few politicians and businesspeople clammouring to fill their own pockets. It is only by way of blogs like UG that we have any avenue to vett our concerns and frustration hoping someone in authority will listen and do what has to be done.
Herein lies the feudal stranglehold in NL that empowers the "alternative realities" you rightly question anon. Wayne if you are paralyzed with fear to speak truth to power and confront the feudal destruction of the treasury (and lives in Labrador) it will never end.
The irony of course Wayne is that there will be no jobs for your kids in NL if you continue to allow the feudal chieftains to run the province for their own benefit at your expense.
Standing up to the bullies turns them into "whiny little bitches" as you are seeing this week in St John's. Even your great questions anon are ironic because you can't find the courage to use your name.
Overcoming your fear is the first step. The good news is that poking the beast in the nose is a liberating experience that empowers you and diminishes the feudal bullies.
"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." FDR 1932
Lol…yes that is true Bruno….I do not have the courage or will to use my name…and that makes me lesser in your eyes… But not in mine… I have the right to do that and I am exercising my right…..and that is why we have a secret ballet at the poles…it is our democratic right….you may not agree, and that's ok by me. Little would be gained by anyone if I stated my name, it would be the same as John Doe, I am not of the elete….so I try and speak for the average Joe. Keep on trucking Bruno ….I will too in my own way….
I got a chuckle thinking about "a secret ballet at the poles".
It brought to mind a picture of Danny in a tutu dancing at a stripper pole.
Glad to say …I never voted for him….but then I am no prouder for having voted for ball et al….usually those in opposition go in a different direction, though ball would. The last election should have include a referenda on muskrat, with hopefully ball opposing rather than supporting the previous government and their boondoggle. If he didn't have the guts to scrap muskrat or at least have an enquirer immediately being elected, then he could have always said the people have spoken to support muskrat, but now he owns it lock stock and barrel, whether he thinks so or not, can't simply blame it on the previous government. What a crock we got…incapable of governing ourselves….no matter what the party…just we as a people…never listened to Danny's song and dance …except when he wrestled Paul Martin to the floor and got the 2 $ billion from his hind pocket… Jonny effort was only going to get 1.5 $ billion, so I give Danny credit for that, but nothing scenes…..
Your continued attacks against NL politicians (past and present) are hard to take considering you are not even a citizen of this province. You don't vote here and you don't pay taxes here so you have no right to make destructive statements about NL politics. NL has seen many people like you over the years who push your own agenda while taking potshots at NL politicians to provide a smoke screen for your own agenda. Passing yourself off as an expert on financial and technical matters related to MF is also a pile of sh*t, as you just regurgitate the statements of others that suit your agenda rather than show any real insight of your own. I would caution anyone reading your comments and to know your agenda is to stop the MF project for environmental reasons and your arguments to shut down MF for financial or technical reasons are not really out of concern for NL or its people. You sir are a pretender who will say or do anything to win, whether there are truth in your comments or not. Do all of us here in NL a favor and find some other project or people on which to focus your destructive ways, as we have enough challenges to deal with here in this province without the likes of you adding to our troubles.
As I have pointed out I have been a fully engaged STAKEHOLDER in MF from the early on. I have warned about the environmental, technical and financial shortcomings and have been correct on all counts.
Your xenophobia breeds the narrow provincialism that allows narcissistic politicians to lead you to financial ruin while you find an "other" to hate. Paddy Daly called me a political hack at the end of our first conversation when I concluded that by the time MF was done Joey would look like a genius. Are you ready to concede that point yet?
I believe that it is just that the truth hurts. Deal with the reality, killing the messenger never works!
Hoops!!! Guess there is someone who doesn't like a Bruno, thought at first it was me. See told you best to remain anonymous, then the irate about life in general cannot attack you directly for what you think and know. What happened to free speech in our democratic country. From my knowledge muskrat is an Atlantic province project, or at least that's why Harper gave the loan guarantee, or that's what he said. Thought ns had a steak in this project, by taking free power as well as paying 5 cents or so for our existing or surplus power from muskrat. They along with emera laid the cable across the straits, foolish fools or is that smart fools, from my prospective as a rate payer and taxpayer from this province. So should I praise the local politicians for such a great deal on our behalf. That one deal alone should allow any Canadian with half a brain to,criticize any nl politician with impunity, and be given a pat on the back for it. Words have little effect it is those deeds that make nl politicans the laughing stock of the nation, like giving ns our existing power from bay des spoir. A regular nl Joe opinion, and I intend to continue to express it. Would also add that most of our troubles are of our own making, like trying to get a spiteful one up on Quebec and all we did was shaft ourselves.
Anon @ 19:02—your last sentence should read "most of out troubles are of "his" making, like trying to—–and all "he did was shaft us"". DW was the instigator of all this
and his bullying tactics ensured it came to fruition, come hell or high water. He personally picked Kathy Dunderdale as his successor because she was able to be easily manipulated. History will prove him to be the single most devastating person in bringing this province to its knees, all because of his mind boggling ego. If he doesn't get his own way he threatens lawsuits knowing full well his chances of winning are much greater than his chances of losing. What he did in bypassing Quebec is nothing short of mindboggling stupidity.
I'm sure Bruno pays federal tax, so he helped to foot the bill for the federal loan guarantee. So in my book that gives him a complete rights to voice his opinion on how his federal tax dollars are being used to prop up that god-damned MRF fiasco.
And Bruno is also quite right, in fact bloody-well bang-on, about how NL politicians cynically foster xenophobia and an "us-versus-them" mentality amongst a generally insular, gullible, and easily led population whenever it suits the selfish political interests of those bloody skeets.
So go ahead Bruno, speak your piece. To hell with those who can't handle the truth… they're hopelessly lost in their own denial.
Bruno, I was expecting a response on my view of cutting residential energy use from time 20:03 yesterday……of 400 MW reduction with HPs
But further, Nfld power says 30 percent of our energy waste is from basements not being insulated, so if we go with that also we get:
650 MW for electric heat for house reduced by 30 percent by insulation then another 60 percent by HPs , gives 650 x .7 x.6 = 182 MW needed instead of 650MW, so a reduction of 468 MW just on residential heat.
What is your opinion for such energy efficiency……….that you did not respond I assume you were assessing it……
Winston
You can't trust the Tories or the Liberals to bring the change you all are seeking. Can you believe this Leader in your midst, can make a difference;
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/jagmeet-singh-muskrat-falls-1.4402291
Although he hails from here….ndp is not going anywhere here…no matter the leader…but yes can trust him as much as what we have had…he was on local CBC last evening,….and he expressed his concern about muskrat…can never get your www' s they don't come up …at least not on my iPad…
Just google cbc news nl. While you are at it please give your support to the Labrador lady with land protection who is in Halifax today, (cbc hfx on the morning show), spreading truth to power on the destruction on local food supply from the reservoir mercury.
Today`s Telegram editorial (Dire Warning)……cites a warning by 25,000 scientists. I assume those scientists all have their names attached to the original document. Yet the Telegram has not a single name from their staff, no opinion expressed of the impact of this warning to this province,to our future and to our worsening financial situation…….so business as usual.
How does this Dire Warning jive with our energy plan, and our carbon tax plan, our offshore development, our standing as having the second worst Conservation and Efficiency plan in Canada, and our Fortis CEO saying `go slow`………how does such attitudes jive with the Dire Warning ……….
Not even Russell has the nerve to put his name to say this warning should be heeded by our government and our citizens. Like Wayne who remains anonymous for reasons stated, the Telegram must fear ad revenue loss if it takes a position on this warning, so subject to fear of lost revenue.
The Telegram and owners…….a cowardly bunch or what…………
Winston Adams
What was it that Anthony Germaine just said about Loraine? Jagmeet? Were they talking of the budget deficit, the false forecasts of Revenue? The inability of NALCOR to contain cost of getting to project startup? The destruction of fish habitat downstream, the risk assessment of mud dam failure? or just a chin wag?
Now here is a challenging job for the laid off dirt movers, dam busters, at Muskrat.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dike-tantramar-marsh-flooding-climate-change-rising-sea-levels-amherst-sackville-1.4403406
You miss not much Bob,
That Nova Scotia is expected to become isolated, that is an island separated from NB in 15 to 20 years………with losses of 50 million a day if transportation is hindered……….and yet the public is so unconcerned………..everyone thinking the danger is just somewhere else. Dire Warning says the Telegram, but who wants to stop or slow down pumping oil.
WA