For decades now Quebec has been building an economic empire on the back of the 1969 Churchill Falls agreement, reaping many billions of dollars while the citizens of NL have received a tiny fraction of the benefit.
Think about that. And then think deeply about Tony Wakeham’s 2026 MOU 2.
To expect Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy to move forward while once again locked into frameworks that restrict our open-market access and that fails to secure absolute, uninhibited transmission rights through Hydro-Quebec’s network, would be another unacceptable surrender of value.
Notwithstanding this truth, MOU 2 continues NL’s irrational bending to Quebec.
We, Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans, are continuing to concede to and protect Quebec’s dominance and its monopoly on the use of our resources as feeding grounds for Quebec’s continued industrial expansion.
Instead of exercising total sovereignty over NL’s resources, NL is surrendering its sovereignty. By tying the development of Gull Island and the future capacity of the Churchill River into a locked-in framework with Quebec, we are voluntarily surrendering local control which locks NL into rigid regulatory compliance and strategic compromises.
We are allowing an external province to dictate the terms, the timing, and the structural distribution of our power.
Newfoundland and Labrador possesses an unparalleled wealth of clean energy, critical minerals, and green hydrogen potential. We have asset/resource wealth that gives us immense political and economic leverage. Accordingly, we should be doing as Quebec is doing — weaponizing its provincial strengths. True leadership means using that leverage from a position of strength, not negotiating out of a defensive posture or rushing an agreement for short-term political gain. We hold the assets; we do not need to compromise on our right to command true market-based returns.
Our 1969 history has proven that multi-generational energy agreements present catastrophic long-term risk — impossible to undo once signed. NL experts are saying that locking Newfoundland and Labrador into decades-long agreements under the current framework exposes NL taxpayers to severe structural liabilities, project cost overruns, and lost revenue. Accordingly, this MOU 2 fails to deliver guaranteed, independent access to the highly lucrative U.S. and broader Canadian markets. Such failure will for another half-century ensure NL will be economically captive to Quebec.
As a result of these failures, Newfoundland and Labrador is fast being marched toward another hydro deal — quietly, and with a level of political spin that should alarm every person in this province.
The public has not been given clear numbers, honest explanations, or a straightforward account of who actually benefits. Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans need to stop this province from repeating history.
The clearest red flag, the clearest numbers and honest explanations come straight from Quebec’s Premier, Christine Frechette.
During the August 17th MOU announcement and in response to the Parti Quebecois threat to cancel the agreement with NL, Quebec’s Premier said: “Where will they (the Quebecois) create ten, twenty thousand jobs, because this is what is in that agreement — it’s 23,000 jobs for both Newfoundland and Quebec.”
This was not a slip of the tongue. It is not vague. It is not rhetorical fluff. It is the Quebec Premier telling her own voters that this agreement delivers 10,000 to 20,000 jobs for Quebec. When she states that there will be “23,000 jobs for both Newfoundland and Quebec,” the math is unavoidable: if Quebec expects 20,000 jobs, Newfoundland and Labrador gets the remainder — roughly 3,000 jobs.
Yet here at home, job numbers have not even been broken down. While in the Province of Quebec job numbers have been broken down — proudly and with confidence.
Here at home there is confusion — intended or not — and it is spreading.
At the Aug. 17th press conference, Premier Wakeham said, “… this is a deal that will provide more jobs. It includes a full guarantee that a minimum of up to 85 per cent of all person hours of employment involved in constructing Gull Island will stay within Newfoundland and Labrador. And we will give priority to the Labrador Innu, to Labradoreans and to Newfoundlanders in that order”.
While on September 4th, The Telegram reported: “When it comes to Gull Island, the deal guarantees 85 per cent of the workforce will be from this province, according to Wakeham.”
This is not correct. It is wrong. The agreement guarantees 85% of person‑hours, not85% of the jobs. These are not the same thing. A person‑hour is just one hour of work by one worker. Our government tells us that workers will have 20 million person‑hours spread across a multi‑year hydro project. 20 million is a very large number — and our government means it to be. But on August 17th Premier Frechette proudly proclaimed that the project will “…create ten, twenty thousand jobs, because this is what is in that agreement — it’s 23,000 jobs for both Newfoundland and Quebec” — and using Premier Frechette’s simple math, only 3,000 workers would be qualified Innu, Labradorean, Newfoundlander in that order during construction.
Because the guaranteed person-hour numbers refer to the location of work, not the home residency of the workers, it does not ensure that 85% of workers will be Innu, Labradoreans or Newfoundlanders. It simply means the work will be done in Labrador — which is already unavoidable because the Churchill River and the generating stations are physically located in Labrador. And the Innu, Labradorean, Newfoundlander reference would be in relation to the priority order of qualified hiring, not that 85% of jobs would be Innu, Labradorean, Newfoundlander.
The use of person-hours is not transparency. It is a muddying of the waters, a sleight of hand —a replacing of job numbers with terminology that sounds enormous but hides the truth. And now even the media is accidentally repeating the confusion.
While our government seems to also be leaning heavily on the narrative that NL’s debt leaves us no choice, roughly speaking, NL’s net debt is less than 50% of its GDP — a debt/GDP ratio well below Canada’s, and far below countries like the United States, whose federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP.
Debt alone does not force governments into bad deals. Panic does. Manufactured urgency does. Political pressure does. Insufficient ‘strategic planning’ does.
Newfoundland and Labrador is not bankrupt. Our lenders are not demanding that we sign anything with Quebec. The pressure is political — not financial.
And here is the truth that government refuses to leverage, Quebec needs this deal far more than Newfoundland and Labrador does.
Quebec needs firm, low‑cost power to fuel its industrial expansion. Quebec needs Labrador hydro to meet its climate commitments. Quebec needs transmission certainty to supply U.S. markets. Quebec’s Premier has already told her citizens that this agreement delivers tens of thousands of jobs for Quebec.
Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador owns the resource. We control the water rights. We control the land. We control the environmental approvals. We control the generation schedule. And after 2041, we regain full control of the Churchill River.
We are not the junior partner. We are the gatekeeper. So why are we acting like the desperate one?
Newfoundland and Labrador has already lived through one Churchill Falls disaster. We know what happens when we sign first and ask questions later. We know what happens when job numbers vanish, when benefits tilt westward, when urgency replaces transparency. We know what happens when we trust that “everything will work out.”
This time, we must refuse to be rushed. We must refuse to be misled by person‑hour numbers. We must refuse to accept job numbers that magically shrink when the conversation shifts from Quebec to NL. And we must refuse to let our government sign away our (and our children’s) future — without a full, public, transparent accounting of who benefits — and who does not.
Newfoundland and Labrador must negotiate from strength, not fear — a deal that makes us the principal beneficiary of our own hydro resources — not a footnote in someone else’s victory speech.
Government must pause. Take the time. Re‑evaluate. And listen to the people of this great Province of Newfoundland and Labrador.