Incredulity overhangs Premier Wakeham’s Churchill Falls MOU.
Few, except Tory partisans, can find evidence that Premier Wakeham appreciably outdid Andrew Furey’s version. The facts confirm that he, too, betrayed the province and sold out to the smarter, more strategic, better prepared, and more powerful interests of Quebec and Ottawa. The $200 billion value Quebec claims to have received from the deal is as certain as ever.
In their own interest, the NL public should demand a stop to this sell-out. The most effective way may be to ask two P.C. MHAs to help bring down the Wakeham Government. We need to figure out how to bring some sanity (and professionalism) back to Confederation Building.
In his recent post, entitled Transparency Denied, Accountability Betrayed, David Vardy offers analysis in enormous detail, leaving little to hide regarding the naked poverty – intellectual and otherwise – of Newfoundland and Labrador’s new emperor.
Even if we were a society as wealthy as say, Norway, our self-interest would dictate that we should not “donate” our Crown Jewel – the existing Churchill Falls infrastructure – to the Province of Quebec. We are not a wealthy place but we have pride. We should at least try to be masters of our own house.
We have accumulated a pile of public debt making maximum value from any negotiation an imperative. Instead, Wakeham, like Andrew Furey, capitulated just as NL began to earn leverage over Quebec.
Let me also correct an impression which both Furey and Wakeham have perpetuated. Quebec is not our partner. It never was. Quebec is an avaricious neighbour, which for 50 years has used its geographic position to hold Labrador’s resource development goals hostage in order to further its own interests.
David Vardy, Gabe Gregory, Doug May, Greg Roberts, among others, have offered the public extensive analysis of both MOUs and conclude that both badly fail to meet the criteria necessary to conclude that NL is the principal beneficiary of the deal. None are partisan, looking for jobs, seeking contracts, or other favors. They are not preoccupied with whether the Tories or the Liberals get re-elected. Their interest is public interest.
What they have disclosed has led to great public outrage over Premier Wakeham’s false and misleading claims.
Is the outrage enough to turn the tide on this betrayal?
Hopefully, it will grow as details of what has been squandered are more widely understood.
Premier Wakeham’s misrepresentations are especially disturbing. When the role of our First Minister is to inspire and educate the public, Wakeham, like Furey, offers only a litany of NL Hydro propaganda. Other behaviors are worrying, too.
I am trying to grasp why the Premier would pretend that the recommendations of the Independent Review Panel guided the new negotiation, when they did not represent them even minimally.
We also need to understand his motivation for refusing to employ the best available talent, strategy and resources to secure for Newfoundland and Labrador the best deal possible?
Having proceeded anyway, we should learn why he failed to instruct the negotiating committee to walk away when Quebec “asked too much and offered too little”, as PM Carney spoke of the U.S.?
Having failed to walk away, why, ultimately was he willing to accept a lop-sided deal, giving Quebec the vast majority of the net revenues from Churchill Falls when NL owns the lion’s share of the huge hydroelectric facility and the water that drives the turbines.
MOU2 fails to deliver market rates for our power. It fails to secure transmission rights through Quebec to access third party customers. The deal fails to jettison the 51-year term when Premier Wakeham was advised to limit any deal to 25 years, and to a review every five years.
Our concessions to Quebec include a 13-year option – not a guarantee – to develop Gull Island, on terribly poor terms.
What happened to the conclusion that each component of the deal must be “unbundled” in order to facilitate transparency of the deal’s important details?
Wakeham even agreed to a 51-year freeze on NL’s right to increase water rentals and royalties, which are meagre, a concession equivalent to moving the Quebec/Labrador border in Quebec’s favor.
All these deficiencies translate into far less than half of the net revenues due to Newfoundland and Labrador. This, when a dangerous level of public indebtedness continues to distort the real economy, giving us false signals of prosperity.
Ignoring all these realities, the Premier demonstrates that he is completely ignorant of the value of Churchill Falls – truly NL’s Crown Jewel. Wakeham displays no knowledge of history or of the pain and embarrassment that marked the 1969 giveaway. Wakeham continues to present as a First Minister not just ignorant but inexperienced; a leader opportunistic, naïve, unsophisticated, as well as uninformed.
His ineptitude was apparent from the beginning.
In November 2025, I wrote an “early warning” to the effect that “Premier Wakeham Can’t find his Spine”. It wasn’t a flattering depiction of the novice Premier but, if anyone was watching, his behavior warranted no accolades. Yes, Wakeham’s election message spoke to his commitment to substantially better Andrew Furey’s deal, but the follow-through was another matter. He cited neither goals nor principles, ideas nor plans. In Office, he struggled making simple decisions, taking weeks to cancel Furey’s Oversight Committee despite one of its Members, Michael Wilson, having claimed that it was compromised by political interference. He dithered as the legal team inscribing Furey’s MOU were left to work away. This is not how an honest politician addresses a solemn promise to ensure that the Newfoundlanders and Labradorians would become the principal beneficiary of one of its richest assets.
Several people, David Vardy, Gabe Gregory, and Greg Roberts among others, advised Premier Wakeham to take all the time he needed to address the Furey MOU, to assemble critical data on the energy market in North America, identify expertise to carry out the work and subsequent negotiation, and establish goals and objectives for what constituted an acceptable deal. Their advice always carried this undertone: ‘Be prepared to walk away’…just a PM Carney had done with Donald Trump’s excessive trade demands.
Wakeham’s did nothing of the kind. Like Furey’s group, the inexperienced and politically conflicted team that Wakeham assembled were outgunned. Wakeham was never ready to say that Quebec “asked too much, and offered too little”, as PM Carney addressed Washington. He could not make the critical assessment – having taken no advice – not even that of the Independent Review Committee. He did not know that he had lost before he had even begun.
Premier Wakeham is no Mark Carney. We know that.
But his terrible missteps, the empty MOU, his misrepresentation of it, and cancellation of the promised referendum, do not constitute the stuff of leadership. Rather, they are the actions of an incompetent, not of a prudent, thoughtful, careful politician, pursuing Newfoundland and Labrador’s economic interests.
Now, the outstanding question is whether his lack of integrity, his callous and unprofessional approach to protecting Newfoundland and Labrador’s basic interests, are characteristics that still command loyalty from the other 20 Members of the Progressive Conservative Caucus.
Are they able to stop the travesty unfolding, remembering who sent them to the House of Assembly, or will they follow Premier Wakeham’s misguided lead?
Do they have the courage to put their province first by undermining Wakeham’s slim majority?
Or are they willing to let their province down, by turning a blind eye to the consequences of Wakeham’s incompetence, his mindlessness, his spinelessness?
Only two Members out of twenty need to agree that a time-out is needed; time for the stench of the Government’s incompetence to clear, and for whatever government is in power to better understand the issues, engage the public, and prepare for a negotiation with defined parameters that reflects NL’s majority ownership and its water rights. Only then can a team be established capable of negotiating achievement of the 75% of net revenues, and other benefits from Churchill Falls, that we are due.
Yes, John Hogan’s Liberals may still want to support the Wakeham Government but…one step at a time!
I suggest that the Tory Caucus have a lot to think about. Wakeham can bluster; he can close down official review processes, stall transparency surrounding his failure, and retract the promise of his commitment of a referendum.
But folks, the genie is out of the bottle. Wakeham’s legacy has been judged.
Quebec has won again. Newfoundland and Labrador has lost.
Do you, and the MHAs you sent to the House of Assembly, still want to be part of his grand charade?
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Editor’s Note: During the coming weeks the Uncle Gnarley Blog will post several pieces to give additional perspective and analysis on the Churchill Falls MOU. I suggest that David Vardy’s analysis entitled “Transparency Denied, Accountability Betrayed”, already posted, should be read for its thoroughness and insights.