“The massive spike in demand for electricity… is rapidly driving up energy prices across the United States. Retail electricity prices in 2025 have increased at nearly twice the rate of overall inflation…..In New Jersey, … electricity rates for households have increased by up to 20 percent this year” The Coming Electricity Crisis, … Surging Demand .
Newfoundland and Labrador has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rewrite its energy destiny. Our government however has signed off on a December 2024 MOU that is a product of short-term thinking, political appeasement and economic under-reach. While the deal is dressed up as a new era of cooperation, it’s actually a surrender of NL’s strategic control over the most valuable hydroelectric assets in North America.
While the new MOU boosts annual revenues from Churchill Falls, these revenues are a fraction of what NL could earn if it properly controlled and marketed its power.
With this MOU Quebec will walk away with a half-century supply of clean, renewable energy at bargain-basement prices. In effect, this MOU locks Churchill’s energy sales into an overall pricing structure that does not reflect its true value and which prevents NL from benefiting from North America’s market-based pricing upside.
NL has essentially sold its future leverage for a lump sum. As well, any new agreement should be about economic transformation, not revenue stabilization.
NL has the hydro capacity to power a new industrial age — green hydrogen, green steel, data centers, battery manufacturing, etc. Instead of using Churchill Falls and Gull Island as the backbone of a bold provincial strategy, government is outsourcing its ambition to Quebec.
NL has no clear plan fordomestic industrial development powered by cheap, clean energy, export diversification, pricing and energy sovereignty that puts NL in the driver’s seat.
Instead we are, once again — handing the keys to Quebec.
Gull Island could be another crown jewel in NL’s energy future. With 2,250 MW of capacity, it has the potential to generate billions annually. But under this MOU, NL will be a junior partner in its own backyard.
Gull Island could be reserved for NL-led development, with open bidding from global partners. There could be a long-term industrial strategy tied to its development and power marketed directly to Atlantic Canadian and possibly U.S. buyers.
However this MOU is politically convenient.
It gives the illusion of progress — but it’s a strategic retreat. Instead of leveraging the fast approaching end of the 1969 contract, taking control and obtaining fair market pricing, government has chosen capitulation over vision.
This is not leadership.
NL should be preparing to assert its ownership and control over Churchill Falls post-2041. It should be taking a more serious look at independent transmission infrastructure to bypass Quebec, tying hydro development to industrial growth not just export, and using energy as a tool for economic diversification, not dependency.
This MOU does none of that. Instead NL will be looking at another half-century of limited autonomy and constrained revenue.
Our government is failing to dream, failing to negotiate hard, and failing to prioritize the long-term prosperity of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Newfoundland and Labrador has a chance to become a global energy leader. Instead, through this MOU it is not a price setter, but a price taker.
This December 2024 MOU?
It’s not a triumph—it is a tragedy of missed potential.