Editor’s Note: Lorne Wheeler is a retired educator, former Deputy Minister of Education with the provincial government and policy advisor.
For too long, Churchill Falls electricity has been treated as a commodity to sell. It’s time for Newfoundland and Labrador to see it as a strategic asset—and plan boldly for the future before others decide it for us.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, energy decisions are never just about megawatts or transmission lines—they are about history. The long shadow of the 1969 Churchill Falls contract and the raw wounds of Muskrat Falls still shape every debate about our hydroelectric future. The Churchill Falls deal locked this province into selling electricity for pennies while Quebec reaped billions. Muskrat Falls, meant to free us from Quebec’s control and diversify our hydro exports, became a fiscal trap of its own. Today, every decision around Churchill Falls is as much about avoiding past mistakes as planning for the future—but history leaves Newfoundland and Labrador with little room to maneuver.
We have long viewed Churchill Falls electricity as a commodity to be sold rather than a strategic asset capable of anchoring long-term economic development. Quebec, by contrast, has treated the Churchill River as a foundation for its prosperity: cheap power from Labrador fuels Quebec’s aluminum smelters, mining and manufacturing sectors, AI campuses, and Hydro-Québec’s entire export strategy. That strategy now extends to the Atlantic provinces through the Atlantic Loop, a key piece of Prime Minister Carney’s nation-building agenda.
By seeing Churchill Falls power primarily as a product, Newfoundland and Labrador has limited its bargaining power and missed opportunities to leverage this resource to drive industrial growth at home. Instead of serving as a springboard for a diversified economy, the Churchill River has generated only modest returns for this province while Quebec has reaped enormous rewards.
That’s why it’s time for Newfoundland and Labrador to move beyond MOU negotiations with Quebec and create an independent Churchill 2041 and Gull Island Advisory Commission. Its mandate should be clear: to map realistic scenarios for maximizing our hydro advantage after 2041 free from the distortions of short-term politics. The panel should bring together energy economists, engineers, Indigenous leaders, financiers, environmental experts, and industry representatives. Its work must explore every option: exporting power to Quebec or New England, fueling a green hydrogen industry for Europe, or retaining more energy at home to drive electrification and industrial growth.
Seventeen years may sound like a long time, but in the energy world, it’s a blink of an eye. Transmission lines, industrial investments, and export contracts take decades to negotiate and build. If Newfoundland and Labrador is unprepared, others will decide our future for us.
We have one more chance to get this right. A Churchill 2041 plan is not just prudent—it’s essential to ensure that the next chapter of our hydro history is written on Newfoundland and Labrador’s terms.