ECONOMY NEEDS MENDING AT A HIGH LEVEL

Premier Ball’s March 20, 2020 letter to PM Justin
Trudeau seeking help following his Administration’s failure “to finalize our
borrowing program, both short and long term”, might have reminded the PM of the
Dickens character Oliver Twist, and his plea to Mr. Bumble: “Please, sir, I
want some more.” Luckily for Ball, he wasn’t handy enough to Trudeau to be
given a knock with the soup spoon, Oliver Twist’s reward for ingratitude; surely
only distance could have spared him.

During his five years as Premier, Ball has never shown
an inclination to “self-help”. That is not to suggest that the Province did not
need the assistance of the Government of Canada to meet the public sector
payroll. However, the economic fallout of the pandemic and an oil industry
labouring under obliterated demand, has only compounded a pre-existing
overspending problem; it did not originate there.

For that reason, the Premier’s letter to the PM
ought to have had an attachment — a Plan — dealing with the crisis that
successive provincial governments, including his, have created.  

As it stands, the Bank of Canada is the backstop
for Newfoundland and Labrador’s unfettered borrowing requirements. Otherwise, the
Premier looks to federal “stabilization transfers” to replace the shortfall that
the new Budget — whenever it arrives — will contain. The Feds are unlikely to
be so generous. Hence, the only option is borrowing, once again, on a “Muskrat
Falls” scale — for as long as it will be tolerated.

The Finance Minister decries the current
Equalization Program, but he knows that no revamp is in the cards. He also understands
that any enhanced transfer program, whether “fiscal stabilization”, or a rose
by any other name, is unlikely to fully replace recent provincial revenue
losses. And, note, “rate mitigation” has not been invoked!

What has the Premier proposed in response to our economic
and fiscal crisis, apart from making the plea of a less deserving, modern-day,
Oliver Twist? The answer is Paul Mills.

Mr. Mills has been elevated to the position of “post-pandemic
Czar” by the Premier. VOCM News reported that he is expected to get “the local
economy back up and humming into what will be the ‘new normal’.” Mr. Mills is a
capable and experienced former Vice President of ACOA NL. But he is the wrong
guy, brought in to perform the wrong job.

The province is broke. That it is surviving at all
right now is due almost entirely to the new role given to the Bank of Canada,
which is to keep the provinces afloat. But more borrowed money won’t allow Paul
Mills to do much of anything, making his appointment just another distraction
from a Premier who indulges in tiny, mostly partisan, and otherwise meaningless
moves.

ACOA-style funding solutions for players in select
industries may be important, but it obscures the fact that it is the whole NL
economy that needs saving, not mere bits and pieces. At the heart of the issue is that our ability to borrow on top what we now owe does not confer on us a capacity to repay.

We don’t need too much reminding of the origins of
the problem. The names of the failed Premiers and Finance Ministers, and their
failed public policies, are well-known. They have been far too willing to submerge leadership to the in-bred misrepresentation afforeded by the “Net” debt which downplays the size of “Gross” debt, its pejorative usage still more
accurate than the accounting lingo.

The imperative that “most” of the $9.4 billion
Utility (mainly Muskrat Falls) debt must be written off is now a debate only
between liars and deniers.

As for the so called “tax-supported debt” — now at
approximately $20 billion — even the lenders of this sum (which includes over
$4 billion in Promissory Notes to government sector-related pension funds) will likely require a “hair
cut”. Even if taxpayers are feeling in a
generous mood – which is unlikely – and are content to have some of their big sources of taxation
(income tax or HST) more than double, the measure won’t cure even the pre-pandemic fiscal shortfall, let alone the new one.  

The Government has no qualms about borrowing a
billion or two in any fiscal year, but neither the politicians nor the public
ask: What would a reduction in services by a billion dollars look like? Alternatively,
what would we have to do to raise one billion dollars under the limitations of
our current fiscal means? 

In last year’s Budget Estimates, the provincial
portion of the HST was $1.1 billion, and roughly the equivalent amount was forecast
from oil royalties. Personal income tax was expected to raise just under $1.5
billion.  

One billion dollars, of course, is only a number;
a comparator. It is not nearly enough to close even the pre-pandemic budgetary shortfall.

The forecast, last year, put Budgeted Capital and
Current Account expenditures of $8.01 billion against $6.23 billion revenue.
That arithmetic puts us short by $1.8 billion annually, with no end in sight.
If you think this figure is ugly, what is a post-pandemic Budget going to look
like? And there is no easy money in a world awash in oil.

With all due respect to the able Mr. Mills, his
services are not required. What is needed is someone of the stature and
experience of a former Governor of the Bank of Canada, or otherwise a person
who has led Treasury Board, Finance Department or Government restructuring — at
a senior level — and who will be mandated to head a public sector program reset,
has the “ear” of the Federal Government (who will be expected to maintain fiscal
support to the province until the “reset” is completed), negotiate the
cancellation of the “unsupportable” portion of the public debt, and, otherwise,
lead the resolution towards a balanced Budget.  

Any other approach is just “kicking the can down
the road”, though the implementation of legislated, possibly constitutional,
limitations on future borrowing and Total public sector debt may well be – and should be – part of the
package. The insolvency experienced in the 1930s was possibly excusable; insolvency today, considering the wealth that good fortune has bestowed on us, is not.

It will be one heck of an adjustment for us to leave
the La La Land that we have come to love for the world of Oliver Twist.

From Danny Williams to Dwight Ball, voters should
have been far too kind to their soup spoons.

Des Sullivan
Des Sullivan
St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada Uncle Gnarley is hosted by Des Sullivan, of St. John's. He is a businessman engaged over three decades in real estate management and development companies and in retail. He is currently a Director of Dorset Investments Limited and Donovan Holdings Limited. During his early career he served as Executive Assistant to Premier's Frank D. Moores (1975-1979) and Brian Peckford (1979-1985). He also served as a Part-Time Board Member on the Canada-Newfoundland Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). Uncle Gnarley appears on the masthead representing serious and unambiguous positions on NL politics and public policy. Uncle Gnarley is a fiscal conservative possessing distinctly liberal values and a non-partisan persusasion. Those values and opinions underlie this writer's views on NL's politics, economy and society. Uncle Gnarley publishes Monday mornings and more often when events warrant.

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