THE BARD’S THOUGHTS ON COVID-19

Instead of being titled 'Muskrat Falls-A Misguided Project' perhaps it should have been titled 'Muskrat Falls-A Fraud Against the People of Newfoundland and Labrador'

Does anyone have confidence in Nalcor management or "optimism", anymore?

Winston,

I totally agree, Peter Ralph should not have been present for the media briefing on the report.

The man should not be permitted to hold a copy of it, let alone "review" it prior to public release.

Just sheer optics alone should have been enough.

However, as we have seen time and time again since the Ball Government took power "optics" is not their strong suit?

The word "clueless" always keeps floating around my mind anytime I see this Government "attempt" to do anything.

I guess we will see how much black marker will be on this one before it's all over?

"Doesn't pass the smell test"

The issue I suspect is that if there was information passed along during the in-camera sessions or confidential exhibits that was referenced as being core to LeBlanc's final report. A final opinion on this holding back be Government should wait until it is clear on what (is any) re-dactions were done and the process vetting those re-dactions.

What will be key is how a decision regarding any potential redaction (ie judicial review etc) and a time frame to un-redact that info and so forth.

I would support re-dactions if there is a legitimate concern of further endangering the provinces position in ongoing or future arbitration's – and I stand by my statements that the Inquiry timing has already weakened the province's position in arbitration's to be held.

This again goes back to my position that the Inquiry was too soon – substantial completion should have been achieved and any claims should have been framed out before starting the Inquiry and this situation would have been avoided.

PENG2

During the final summinations of the Inquiry in Labrador in August, there was a firey exchange, in a debate that lasted for 5 minutes, between Ralph, lawyer for the Crown, or government, and Leblanc. "…… but I suggest that it is your misunderstandings of the role of the Crown", Ralph said. And later Leblanc said, "I do understand the role of the Crown, by the way". (at the inquiry). Is this the guy we want using his blackout pen, before the Report is released to the people. The government gave Leblanc authority over what parts should not be held in private hearings, like the Water Revesion that was then before the courts. So why should Leblanc now not have authority over what should be blacked out now, rather than handing it over to Ralph to decide? Maybe Ralph wants it to be called the Ralph Inquiry, rather than the Leblanc Inquiry! Or was he listening to Barr, after the Mueller Inquiry.

Just a brief comment on Abbott. He says he agrees with the opposition leader, that the Chair of the Board is in a conflict of interest by supporting a new government leader. He could have said it without without mentioning Ches. Imagine if Biden or Bernie disagreed on a topic, and one of them said directly he was in agreement with Trump. Maybe Abbott is not really a Liberal, he may be a political want a be in search of a party. Joe blow.

Joe @ 15:16:

To play devil's advocate – why do you assume LeBlanc is not involved in prepping for re-dactions (and we are both assuming that there will be re-dactions)? Likewise, I will assume there will be info from the in-camera hearings that does NEED re-dactions – confidential then and still needs to be confidential until court proceeding are complete. Otherwise, holding session on that info was a complete waste of time unless it helps for part of the final report.

At this point, alot is being made that really is just noise – until the report is released and an assessment on re-dactions (IF there are any, and why for each re-daction).

My understanding is that normally after an Inquiry reprot is submitted, a Commissionaire is held for 180 days for questions/comments/guidance etc by the government, so I would doubt very much the Government alone will re-dact the report.

As for Abbott – go back and check my previous comments and links on the Cameron Inquiry and the GT severance for more info on him.

PENG2

My only point is if redactions are necessary, let Leblanc do them. And think Ralph is the type that knows better than himself. As for Abbott, don't know him from Adam. Never heard of him before, or any part he played in the the Cameon Inquiry. Joe blow.

Ches Crosbie wants this cheerleader for Nalcor people removed from his liberal appointed position as chair of the board of Nalcor and John Abbott, the other liberal candidate for premier agrees. Sounds like he is in conflict of interest by getting involved in politics while running Nalcor at the board level.

Never heard the terms "Kitchen Cabinet", and "Family Compact"? This is also the Canadian, (Colonial) tradition. This kind of collaboration and sometimes frightful action over our history, led to the Winnipeg 1919 Riot, Louis Riel hanging, Incarceration of aliens, Residential schools, Acquitted White murderers of Indigenous, and other such shameful happenings.

The test is whether or not a Board member is considered a 'Politically Restricted Employee'; the policy statement and tests for if BP is politically restrictive is here:

https://www.gov.nl.ca/exec/hrs/working-with-us/political/#def

In the mean time, CC changes his mind quite often – he has been calling for DB to resign since last fall, now that DB has filed intent to resign CC has changed direction and is now saying its a bad time.

PENG2

To repeat a comment from earlier, the Paddick support from, a non-political yes-person, does not pass the smell test!! That is the ultimate test for NLers related to this liberal party crowning. It is no better than the Frank Coleman attempted crowning by the PC's. They are all tarred with the same corrupt brush that we all suffer from.

I have no affiliation with the Liberals (or any of them) but i'd almost sign up to vote for Abbott. Believe me, Furey is not winning any points by standing in front of Dwight's cronies for a photo-op. They'd be the last bunch i want on "my team". And i like what Abbott is saying too, sadly he's up against the guy "they want".

Agreed!

Coat tail riders one and all!

Gotta get me pension by's!

I fully agree as well

Robert @ 09:46:

Maybe check on where the liability lays for not meeting the commercial operations date – I provided links to the Emera supply agreement over a year ago, the bill eventually comes to NL (unless we find alternate supply if MF never produces reliably).

Also, this demonstrates that NL and the fed government cant just unilaterally change the conditions of the MF construction/supply deals (including the FLGs) – it will also require the agreement of Emera and the NS regulator.

This doesn't bode well for improving public perception to allow for a federal 'bailout' to help NL rate mitigation.

PENG2

PENG2, the 5 million or so is peanuts as to what Nova Sotia Power is charging customers for the ML, over 100 million a year for 2018, 2019, and 2020,this for their costs for the ML which is getting no power from NL. So by the end of this year about 350million…..does this get backcharged to NL, likely so, or compensation with more more in the future if possible, maybe Holyrood thermal generated power?
Given the worsening issue of MFs power, or full reliable power, should we be advancing wind power on the Avalon, robust CDM, more island hydro, addressing Avalon restraints, the 154 MW add to Bay'de Espoir? Or continue indefinitely with Stan's promises of a strong finish, while MFs costs and ML costs keeps accumulating?
Or do you agree with Dennis Browne's letter to the Telegram to reduce capital expenditures, and so ignore the impacts of delays and possible little reliable power from MFs? We can live in hope of getting good bipole reliable operation, but are you still hopeful that there is no need to make timely plans and action now,if hope is false hope?
Your thoughts?
Winston Adams

Maybe one of the orchestrators of the Fed/NL/NS Deal, Peter Mackay, now on the hustings for PM, should be required to show his hand, as Atlantic Provinces Don for Harper. Who else was at the table; Ed + Cable Functionaries, Gov Ministers, Crown Reps? What will be in Leblanc's list, (Un-redacted)?:-)

PENG2, what does Brendan Paddick bring to the Nalcor table that he was made CEO?
Have you researched his background, does he cut for this position?
Should he have made the public endorsement of Furey?
The 3 amigos : Paddick, Furey , Doyle, I would add to my prior list of elites with much influence on politics and how this province is run. Would you disagree?
Winston

WA:

I don't know BP personally – though he has been successful in telecommunications, so I couldn't say what he brings to the table as Board Chair. I posted a link above to the NL Government policy statement of employees being involved in political activities (policy is dated 2011) – considering that board members don't usually qualify as employees and employees don't usually sit as voting members of a board, I am not sure he did anything wrong considering the letter of the law (optics however is a different question).

An interesting exercise would be to look at the American ‘Hatch’ legislation and the federal PSEA legislation and compare it to the NL Government policy statement – I’d say our policy statement is a bit weak overall. Likewise, I would also recommend people look up the background of both candidates carefully – and ignore the political nonsense being played in the media when trying to make a sound decision.

My reading of the Emera supply agreement is that we will end up compensating Emera for ‘lost opportunity’ revenue due to MF generation/supply delays – again, I have said several times we should have considered the possibility of 'complete to avoid default and look at HQ for an alternate supply' to satisfy the Emera obligation, though this would be very politically ugly for NL Government if we were to buy UC power for HQ to satisfy LC obligations.

Another thought I have recently is the delays mean that the LIL/LTA/ML infrastructure is continuing to age – maybe not a big deal, but a 5yr delay in commissioning is still 5yrs coming off the return period of storms etc and probably still accounts for maybe 5% of service life. My point is, if a 5yr delay occurs before the ML is in use – does this then mean the ML and other components becomes 40yrs old when turned back to Nalcor and has a reduced anticipated service life after turn over. Maybe a 5yr delay when not in full service is only 3-4yrs of in-service life span reduction, but I think you understand my point – and how does this affect economics of the project over 50-60yrs of financing when considering maintenance, downtime etc when nearing the ‘new’ end-of-life.

PENG2

PENG2, you make the case for Emera's gain in equity in the NL electrical utility. This would be one way to wind up the Nalcor group, indeed. With NS and NL in it's portfolio, NB Power would be the next logical acquisition. That pretend Engr/Premier, Higgs is ripe for such a deal. At least, this would bring about the Atlantic Grid, fed by Hydro Quebec, serving New England, and beyond.

PENG2, you are vague on BP. Have you researched his career to any depth? Anything that is important for UG readers?

If the LIL is not reliable and continued delays, therei s little value in buying power from HQ/CFs, do you agree? You are counting on hope that the LIL will be reliable? Would you have a backup plan to implement, and when?

Yes, your point that infrastucuture if not used it loses value and adds costs, beyond interest during constuction. It ages and loses value.

On the 3 elites I suggested, I thought you might agree as to Paddick and Furey but exclude Doyle. You are silent on that.

Do you worry about FTS stock value if there's a recession? Over 20 P/E ratio is high? But perhaps would hold up better than many? Do you expect a recession?
How do you manage 50 or more investments did you say? I have trouble tracking less than 10.
Would you disclose your loss is percentage since the new year? Do you margin?
Winston Adams

Winston Adams

Not if Winston. Crash not Recession. All Equity Stocks will fall. Irrespective of P/E, or water through turbines. Get out, and convert paper to hard currency, Gold. What's happening at NL Gold properties these days?

Robert, you sound like Geoff Stirling. And would you hide your gold or keep in a bank vault for security?
A crash….you mean like starting in 1929-, when stocks dropped up to 90 % in value? Yet some throughout the Depression paid their dividends.
I see Exxon Mobil is down 50% since their high. Years ago I watched as oil consumed reached 90 mb/d and hoped it would start to decline least it pushes runaway climate heating. In 2019 it hit 100 mb/d, and climbing about 1 mb/d per year, despite all those Bruno batteries and mknisplits.
Predictions now are all over the place, the Greta effect, and now the coronovirus.
A crash for the economies……a blessing for the climate surely, and it may happen, but we all must eat, and drink, and have some heat. You cannot eat or drink gold, and doesn't burn for heat as good as paper. I own no gold, and not more than 5 dollars in silver.
Extreme fear can cause a crash. And too much past speculation should cause a recession, is my thoughts.
What did Geoff do with his gold, no one told us. Did he create a big endowment at MUN?
They say what goes up must come down, unless it escapes earth's gravity.
Maybe PENG2 is worried……he is silent ……is he holding some Exxon Mobil? I once held a little for a few weeks when Hibernia went mad, but long ago saw the light…..and prefer green to black.
Where is Furey on offshore development, most doctors see the negative impact on human health, likely worse impact worldwide than Broken Earth from earthquakes. Will he or Abbott ramp down offshore production and join the Saudis to increase oil prices? I await to hear their platforms, Abbott claiming to be a Straight Shooter. Furey, the anointed one, I think might speak with forked tongue……time will tell.
Winston Adams

WA:

I know little about BP – except he was involved with Gerry Keeping Sr at N1 and has been involved with Risley at Clearwater, so I wont pass any judgement on him either way.

When I said to source power from HQ to satisfy the Emera obligation I was figuring transferring via NB and ignore the Anglo-Saxon route totally. People can claim the fed or NL can void the supply agreement – it isn't as easy as that, we will compensate NS somehow, and if we were to walk from MF we would likely have to repay them the $1.7b they invested in the ML works.

I don't bother to short sell – waste of time in my opinion.

PENG2

Winston, we know now, that the $US has been hit by the virus. This will not turn out well for those who continue to rely on oil Revenues, and other "Dividends", to fund Social causes, and services. The same applies to those with Bank Stocks, and Corp Bonds. Paper investments eventually end up as trash, for recycling. All I know about Stirling, I got from Wayne Johnston's recent book.

PENG2
There is much in the public domain on Brendan Paddick, little on Abbott, a bit more on Furey.
Given BP's appointment, should we, and you, not know much more about him, so we can make a judgement, with him being CEO of Nalcor?

Problem with CFs power going to NS via NB, is lack of transmission capacity between NS and NB. And I take it that you have serious concern of the LIL being reliable?

I too have never sold short, by "margin" I meant do you only invest with your assets and not borrow funds to invest. If you use margin, do you have a upper limit if margin, a % of the total asset value?

Robert: My close family is now going on a cruise,boarded today, that was planned a year ago that I though was unwise and now scary, so i hope they get back safe and avoid virus issues. A friend now in Florida tells me that many are panic buying some items with stores sold out of some items
In the Depression some 5000 USA banks went bust, many were small banks. In Canada all big 5 came through ok and paying dividends but stock price was down and eventually recovered.
Hudson Bay not doing bad after 300 years! And our banks over 100 years old, so not all paper investments go to trash, would you agree?
Brendan Paddick has been very clever at paper investments, and one can connect his carrier, with firms that goes back to the Great Eastern landing the cable at Heart's Content in 1866.
PENG2, it seems, has little researched him. BP is also co-founder with Furey and Doyle on "A dollar a day foundation". BP's motto is "Don't try to predict the future, enable it". So when he tweets in favour of Furey, that is a political action, is it not? He is following his motto ; ENABLE FUREY. Wear the Furey Jersey like wearing the Nalcor jersey. Would PENG2 disagree?
He could have privately, instead of publicaly, endorsed Furey, but sent the tweet, and then Alan Doyle seconded it. All 3 are co-founders of Dollar a day ( that is 365 dollar a year, more than my heat bill for my cottage, and more than the 19 dollars a month many charities ask for. But like the Dollar Store , it has a nice ring to it, Churchillian even, with D-Day. F-Day would not ring nice, nor C-Day. Marketing is key. Brendan is one hell of a good marketing guy, PENG2 should now.
Winston Adams

Winston, You are all over the Bay me son. Good luck with the cruise, and hope you avoid the virus. Our family lived in Trinity South; (1939-1950). We knew a "dear ole soul", Aunt Asenith Reid from Greens Harbour, who recalled being in Heart's Content, 1866 as a 6year old! Later, we lived in HC, (1946-1950), caught conners at the site of said transatlantic cable. Look up Rollie Peddle, Grade six classmate, custodian of the artifacts. Bon Voyage!

Robert, I am not on the cruise, and jest the others, that they are not real Nflders, seeking the warm weather and sunshine. Here at Logy Bay I am about to clear my driveway of another 10 inches or so of snow that fell over night, some new drifts of 3 feet added to prior accumulation. Not bothered by it. Not more than 2 gallons of gas for my snowblower all winter. Home alone, so I can be all over the map on my comments. But usually a common thread, if you can find it.
The magazine "Discovery" has a story each month title "Connections" and so my recent research on Paddick led me to the Great Eastern that perhaps Paddick missed.
The first cable in 1858? they used 600 volts to send the signals,
and was very weak signal, so they upped the voltage to 2000 and burnt up the the cable. The engineer/physicist advised against it, but a medical doctor, a shareholder got his way for 2000 volts.
They found also that earths voltage had more say than the battery
voltage, and was causing problems. Recall my prior comments on GIC ( geomagnetic induced currents), ignored it seems as to the DC line, but now listed on Nalcors 40 risks for the LIL! I encountered those issues in the 1970s on NL grid, and was a problem on the transatlantic cables, can you believe ( happens after a solar flare hits our earth's magnetic field. Wonder if if GE software guys have programmed for that, or unknown to them, as Gilbert Bennett wan't aware? He's a cable guy but maybe not the same type of cable.

Do you know any Reid's from Greens Hr? Any that fished on the Labrador in the late 1930s? Or of a Capt Walters, or schooner Monica Walters?
Winston Adams

WA @ 14:27:

I was thinking more along the lines of diverting some of the existing flow from NS to NB (if any) with CF power and using the remaining capacity to satisfy the obligation.

Here is an interesting link for your review:
https://energy.novascotia.ca/sites/default/files/Transmission%20and%20System%20Operator%20Options%20for%20Nova%20Scotia.pdf

Maybe for Abbott, check into the Cameron Inquiry.

PENG2

Danny still has cost and value mixed up. His Muskrat project with a slathering of Liberal refinancing will surely cost the public over 100billion. It's worth or value on the other hand is nothing. Or we might way it's worth negative-100billion. That works out to a positive in Danny speak only.

Maybe reading law at Oxford, was more about "Truth and Consequences", wherein "Truth was such a precious commodity, it must be protected with a Bodyguard of Lies" Churchill. Danny like many of us just wasted his youth.

My comment was made before reading the Globe and Mail piece. On reading, i see 99% of comments dismiss the piece.
I followed another link to her address to the EMPIRE Club……who would believe this is still a relevant outfit now. Up to the 1960s in rural Nlfd, the people were much aligned with the Empire and the Union Jack,and the WW1 sacrifices, and this is far from dead: Fortis and Paddick use it to advantage.
She is a motivational speaker, and like Bruno, little in-depth technical knowledge, but the gift of the gab is a big asset. And too she is from Bruno country: Cape Breton, and once promoted coal. She is a Elon Musk worshipper, and owns Tesla stock. She promotes battery storage mostly, and CEO of a company doing that.
If I was making money off selling minisplits, and pubically promoting it, Bruno would have me drawn and quartered. He rails against patronage and cronyism but dive in to suppport a fellow Cape Bretoner, with dirty coal baggage……and Bruno an enviromentlist?
Battery storage is presently a minor player to tackle climate change, with some benefit in some instances, far from a silver bullet and she and Bruno suggests.
Bruno; critical of colonialism , yet this woman promoting her wares to the Empire club! LOLs
Winston Adams

I suppose Bruno expects UG readers to believe that wind and batteries as a stand alone is cost effective, as a replacement for Holyrood?

Recall that Jerome Kennedy called for assessment for that, and if memory serves, it came in at 17 billion cost in 2012.They went with 600Mw on the east and west coast of the island, about 1200 MW total, which may seem high to displace about 490MW at Holyrood.But our wind on average produces at about 43 % of its nameplate capacity. On average that would permit 516 MW before transmission losses, so sized about right as a stand alone, and a foolish scheme then.
Bruno's friend, in her speech says battery storage is now 1/5 of what it cost in 2012. Wind may be down 50%. Combined they may be down 2/3 in cost. If so that implies a cost of 5.7 billion now!
Comments on the Globe and Mail piece says grade 3 arithmetic would discredit large investments in battery storage, and she had presented no analysis to show cost effectiveness.
For Nlfd's needs, certainly more wind can be cost effective, but for batteries for days or weeks of storage if the LIL goes down, it's just crazy. But watch for Bruno to post again on the magic of battery storage for Nfld. But never any analysis on cost effectiveness.
One comment on his piece said storage for 4 months wound add 8 dollars to every kwh used. So that would be $8.13 per kwh. But Nlfd doesn't need 4 months of storage, But 1 month suggests 2 dollars add, and 2 weeks 1 dollar add, and 3.5 days would be 50 cents add, so 50 plus 13 = 63 cents per kwh.
That sounds cost effective, Bruno? Are you suggesting less than 3.5 days of storage capacity, is as reliable as the thermal at Holyrood, and more cost effective? The scheme is as crazy as Williams Mfs. But she got much applause from those at the Empire Club, where Danny spoke in 2005 and made predictions: UG host, Sullivan should read his speech: Google Empire club speech Danny Williams. Is the prosperity he visioned for 10-20 years ahead our present situation? Did he fire up anti Quebec as to 1 billion a year loss on CFs? Did he suggest he was going to pay down Nfld debt with the new money he got from Martin? See how his vision pans out with Leblanc's report soon to be released.
Winston Adams
Winston Adams

And the fun begins , Robert: all out increases on oil productions by the Arabs and Russia and others to drive prices very low. This will create losses for fracking producers…..and little income for Nfld's offshore. lat time oil went to 20 dollars did it?
They could't agree on production cuts, and here too they want to double capacity. Hectic days ahead, and this little virus causing much grief for us big brained species.
Winston