A FINANCE MINISTER WHO BELIEVES IN SANTA CLAUS

The Government’s Fiscal Update released last Wednesday by Finance
Minister, Tom Osborne, depicts a government continuing to lead the public over
a steep fiscal cliff.
The decline in revenue of $393 million, which the Minister
announced, is not in dispute. But his press statement to the effect that the
Budget surplus for 2019-20 has been reduced by $368.7 million is
transparently not true. The Government is running a seriously large deficit –
not a surplus.
Osborned is engaged in a process that is worse than double
counting.

The Budget Speech brought down in March refers to the new Atlantic
Accord agreement with the Federal Government in which fixed cash installments
totalling $2.5 billion will be received from 2019 until 2056. The Speech notes
that in 2019, “we will receive $134.9
million
from the first installment.” (Bold added) The Minister is
attempting to create the illusion of budget surplus by assuming that the entire
sum of $2.5 billion has been received.

Osborne is delusional in others areas. His Budget uses the most
favourable construction possible in allowing oil royalty forecasts that make no margin for error. He ought to know that natural resources
revenues, especially from oil, are only a best guess anyway. Prudent fiscal
management would employ a highly discounted forecast measure; but prudence is
not something with which we can characterize this Administration or any other
in the past decade. 

A couple of examples illustrate the seriously misleading character of the
2019-20 Budget and the Update:
1.  The Fiscal Update states: “Shutdowns of the Hibernia project in July
and August caused an estimated deferral of $185 million in revenue for this fiscal
year.” To begin with, this is not
deferred revenue
. Deferred revenue is money received in advance of having earned it. It cannot be treated as income under generally accepted accounting
rules. This is
lost revenue that may or may not be recovered
depending on whether the Hibernia reservoir is fully drained at some distant
time in the future. His Finance officials know the difference.
That there will be shutdowns of offshore platforms is no surprise;
Hibernia is the third production platform to cease production for a period in
little more than a year. It’s just that Osborne’s Budget refuses to account for
such anticipated occurrences.
The Update also states that “lower than anticipated oil prices is
expected to reduce  revenues by $46
million”.  This, too, surprises the
Finance Minister, when it shouldn’t. As to the likelihood of continued
fluctuations, the Minister need only open his office door and ask anyone who
has oil and gas securities in an RRSP.
2.  The cash requirements stated in the 2019-20 Budget Estimates
(Statement 1, page iv), exceeds revenues by $1.86 billion. With the Minister’s
Update telling us he will receive $368.7 million less, the “real” cash deficit
– Capital and Operating Expenditures –  is now therefore $2.23 billion. 



A 2019-20 $2.23 billion “gross cash requirement”, AFTER having received the $134.9 million Atlantic Accord funding, might just lead one to ask: what aspect of the Budget is under control?


For those on Twitter who raised the subject over the last few days as
to the severity of the province’s debt problem, I thought it worthwhile to take
another look at this issue, too.
An understanding of the issue is found in the
Government’s “Gross cash requirements” for each of the last five years set out
in the Report of DBRS – an agency that rates the Government’s Bond issues. The
“cash” deficit is actually the amount that the Government will have to borrow
to meet its forecast expenditures. It is the amount by which the debt is
increased. The only positive thing we can say is that the problem predates  the current Administration. But, as you will
see below, this Finance Minister has made no move to fix the problem. 



Here is
the Government’s cash deficit for the most recent Budgets, according to DBRS:
      2015-16          $2.6
billion
      2016-17          $1.7 billion
      2017-18          $2.0 billion
      2018-19          $2.0 billion
Provincial Debt Another Fiction
The Provincial Debt is yet another of the Finance Minister’s fictions.
His Budget Update puts the Provincial Debt at $13.95 billion up from $13.77
billion in April. In contrast, DBRS, the Bond Rating Agency, calculates
province’s “self-supported debt” at $19.194 billion. (This is, in part, because DBRS includes
the unfunded pension liability in its “self-supported debt”
numbers, something that the Government won’t.)
To the $19.194 billion “Self-supported Debt” DBRS adds $9.375 billion
of “Hydro Debt” (which includes provincially guaranteed debt of NL Hydro and
federally guaranteed debt of Muskrat Falls). Of course, we know that the
Muskrat Falls debt must be “mitigated” by someone other than the ratepayer – which makes it “taxpayer-supported” debt.
So, DRUMROLL PLEASE…..the numbers are in! The total Debt for which the
province is on the hook is $28.5 billion + $368.7 million (the drop in revenue
contained in the Budget Update) or just short of $29 billion (recognizing a substantial write down of the Muskrat Falls asset). 
Why, readers, $29 billion is more than double the Debt figure reported by the
Minister!
The Minister also told the media that he “wasn’t giving up on our
return to surplus in 2022-23…” 
Tom Osborne thinks that we believe in Santa Claus, too.
_________________________________________
(Note:  The Provincial Budget for this year reported the Total Public Sector Debt as $22,857.7 billion but Note 3, Appendix III, Public Sector Debt, warns that the figure “does not include payables and accruals, or unfunded liabilities related to pensions, severance or post-retirement benefits.”) It is reasonable to conclude that DBRS has no vested interest in low-balling this Province’s debt position.

Des Sullivan
Des Sullivan
St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada Uncle Gnarley is hosted by Des Sullivan, of St. John's. He is a businessman engaged over three decades in real estate management and development companies and in retail. He is currently a Director of Dorset Investments Limited and Donovan Holdings Limited. During his early career he served as Executive Assistant to Premier's Frank D. Moores (1975-1979) and Brian Peckford (1979-1985). He also served as a Part-Time Board Member on the Canada-Newfoundland Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). Uncle Gnarley appears on the masthead representing serious and unambiguous positions on NL politics and public policy. Uncle Gnarley is a fiscal conservative possessing distinctly liberal values and a non-partisan persusasion. Those values and opinions underlie this writer's views on NL's politics, economy and society. Uncle Gnarley publishes Monday mornings and more often when events warrant.

TEN YEARS AFTER MUSKRAT FALLS SANCTION – We will have to think abandonment of the Labrador Island Link

Put simply, whether Muskrat Falls come online or not, it cannot be relied upon. Without admitting their gross negligence at the start, Hydro is essentially saying that that we should try to salvage Muskrat Falls at an undefined cost and for for however short the duration it might operate.

THE PROOF MUSKRAT FALLS IS NOVA SCOTIA’S PROJECT

The substance of Hydro’s mission is to satisfy the contracts with Emera to get large amounts of power flowing into Nova Scotia for the betterment of that province and its ratepayers.  The Island could easily live without the Muskrat Fals project and in fact, other than for the onerous Emera contracts, NL ratepayers would be best off if it was abandoned and left to rust.

FIRST YEAR OF OFFICIAL ENERGY DELIVERY NOT QUITE WHAT EMERA BARGAINED FOR

PlanetNL52: Happy Anniversary Emera on 1 Year of Official Energy Delivery Not Quite What Emera Bargained For Despite all the bad news related to Labrador Island...

83 COMMENTS

  1. Government is a perfect place for sociopaths – a job where you are expected to lie for a living about everything and where as long as you tow the party line and praise the leader, you are well on your way to a fat pension and numerous board appointments.

    MHAs know there is no solution to fix this problem that isn't ugly – and that the public doesn't want to hear ugly. So, rather than be leaders, they are surfing over troubled waters.

    It is pathetic. I think they public is afraid to object because it would speed up the pain. If you were to ask the average person if they would like to start fixing the problem now but that involved – reducing services, layoffs in the public sector, increased income tax, sales tax at 18%, carbon taxes, closing smaller schools, ending rural ferry services, adding highway tolls to cover snow clearing, co-pays for hospital visits and much more — would they say "lets get started", or "lets get started with planning to get heck out of here".

    • The problem with drilling more wells and bringing in more royalties is that the government of the day will use the extra money for their own benefit and not for the benefit of you and me.
      We are being governed and fleeced by parasites.

  2. UG et al:

    Just to clarify, 'Deferred Revenue' should be reported as a liability until earned – if in fact it has been received from the oil companies and reported proportionally as the amount is actually earned also as a credit.

    So, in order for this 'Deferred Revenue' to be legit – the platform operators would need to have an agreement to produce a set amount and are infact now producing in excess of the contractual amount. The amount above the contractual amount would be the income side of the 'Deferred Revenue' liability.

    For example, 10 barrels is the contracted production amount but operator is producing 11 barrels – the 'Deferred Revenue' is listed as as liability, 1 barrel is listed as 'Deferred Revenue Income' and 10 barrels listed as general revenue. Also, they would also have to have over paid us for the contractual production quantity for the time they were shutdown.

    My gut impression is by listing as 'Deferred Revenue' that we are actually hiding a deficit of 2x $185M – of ~$370M if we are paid in advance for estimated production? Granted I haven't looked and the update and normally wait until the budget comes down for real 'numbers' – and I dont know how the production contracts are invoiced in our off shore.

    PENG2

    • PENG2 @ 08:37:

      I had a bit of a review over the fiscal update documents. Seeing as to how the government consistently over-estimates the value of oil and the exchange rate – best advice is to use current estimating techniques and dock 15-20% to make a conservative estimate. At least this way deficits wont increase at end of the year – and we night actually have a year end surplus to start of 2021 better.

      If using some academia, my prediction is the government for 2020 should use a price of $55/barrel(or less) and $0.70-0.72(or less) for the exchange rate. This will place them closer to the mode of current predictions, or for those who like p-values somewhere in the range of p-70 to p-80 (ie the distribution isn't normal and is skewed).

      PENG2

  3. our present government missed an opportunity to put the brakes on hard after the 2015 election when they had a majority. That pain would be largely over now and we would be reaping the benifits of lower operating cost. We are headed over a fiscal cliff and the cliff is nearer than most people think. We cant continue to spend over 2m dollars a day,more than we take in, every day of the year and not reach the end at some point. The solution is simple….lower operating cost and increased revenue. The 29b dollar question is how do we get there. We certinally will not on the current path we are on.

  4. whistle past the graveyard

    (idiomatic, US) To attempt to stay cheerful in a dire situation; to proceed with a task, ignoring an upcoming hazard, hoping for a good outcome.
    (idiomatic, US) To enter a situation with little or no understanding of the possible consequences.

  5. So the incompetent, corrupted governance that has afflicted NL like a festering, purulent boil for time immemorial will now result in all the New Year's babies in NL each owing about fifty-five thousand bucks as soon as they're born.

    What a way to start off their lives… already so far in the hole they have to have sunshine piped into them.

    If these fiscally-condemned newborns had advance knowledge of what was in store for them, they'd turn around and crawl right back into the womb.

    • I would disagree with your view that the government’s present and past in Newfoundland have been and are incompetent. In my opinion they are not incompetent but merely corrupt.

      To brand them as incompetent forgives them for not knowing what they are doing. A corrupt government knows exactly what they are doing.

      The goal of each successive government in Newfoundland is to siphon as much money out of this rich province as possible, and to leave the bills for the ordinary people to pay. Muskrat Falls is the latest and largest siphon to date that accomplishes that goal.

      Gull Island will be an even larger and more efficient siphon for the riches of our fair province, or perhaps the fixed link will be the next siphon.

  6. At least UG will call out this Osborne individual on his mealy-mouthed, doublespeak bullshit.

    The other gutless wonders in the HOA won't dare go there because they well-know that the only way to avert the looming insolvency is to take decisive action such as trimming the crony-marbled fat lathering the most bloated public service in all of Canada, massive public sector layoffs, and close down all the outports and ferries to nowhere. And safe to say, as with Osborne, those buggers don't have the 'nads for taking any such drastic but necessary action as that.

    So they'll just kick the can on down the road, and shuffle along until the bondsmen call in the debt, and then it'll all become someone else's problem.

    Two good outcomes that might result from provincial bankruptcy from the perspective of those who'll have to endure it… (1) NL politicians will be relieved of any and all responsibility for making decisions even remotely related to provincial finances, and (2) there won't be enough funds left in the provincial treasury to pay out these rotten bastards' pensions.

  7. What is it about the Mayor and Council of St. John's, out looking for extra water supply, most of which would be wasted on plumbing, sewage, watered lawns, car washes and the like. I thought Council appointed a Climate Change Coordinator. It was known in the 1970's that natural water supply for a growth centre, would one day have to be restricted. Same mind set that baseboard, (cheaper), heating in housing schools and university campuses would not have a day of reckoning!! Hire an Engineer who practices in sustainable development. By the way, what is the demand load for water supply in the Galway? Aren't they sitting on an aquifer? Does the development even have a plan for solar hot water conversion when fossil fuels are depleted?
    My rant, but really as Cherry would say, "You people".

  8. Robert, You and Young Alpie,( aka the Digger, A Brian Peckford, who calls himself Honourable), are two Nflders living in the other side of Canada. You an engineer aware of the folly and danger of fossil fuel burning, and Brian, a politician, seeming gleeful of more and more GHGs and that Vancover is the largest port in North America for coal export. He ridicules children like Young Greta, as the Saint of climate change.
    The lone sensible Republican I see on TV says many live in a silo, they read only social media sites that are echo chambers for their wrong thinking, so they cannot arrive at truth.
    Obviously Brain sees nothing wrong with coal burning or any fossil fuel burning, the more the better. You however want sustainable development.
    Get together with Brian, and convert him if you can. I misspelled Brian as Brain, but corrected it. Examine Brian's brain to see if he lives in a silo. All sources on his blog seem to be from these echo chambers that ignore real science. One scientist he recently used prefers not to have her research peer reviewed, this typical of his sources.
    Winston Adams

  9. Winston; Tory, Tory, Tory! I used to delight in the baiting game, but when one follows the antics of Ford, (just cancelled GHG projects, Hamilton LRT, etc.), Kenney ("Truther", acting like a true Eastern Bum), Higgs, (Engineer who failed EEP), Ball, (thinks like a Tory), Notso Smarters all!!

    Brian, who was respected in former years, has slowly drifted to darker Tory mindedness in his later years, no longer recognized for progressive, social gospel issues, sad. Boris? on the Trump trail, all Tories in mindset. Trickle Downers. A lot of it sponsored by the Churches of the day. Read about Pitt the Younger. Boris will take you back to 1798 French Revolution days. Keep your rudder Winston, rocky breakers dead ahead, you will have to head to Northern waters to find that growler though.

    • You sum it up in good fashion, Robert. Indeed,and sad about Peckford.
      As to keeping my rudder, and growlers in Northern waters, lately I have resumed my research on the Schooner Village Belle, you recall the intended rail line to boondoggle Port Nelson, and the line diverted to Churchill in Hudson Bay you have mentioned.
      With Greta sailing the Atlantic, it reminded me, The Village Belle embarking for Portugal and Spain, no engine, in 1919, as Alcock and Brown leaving Lester field, with plane engines then rather powerful.
      Records show the master could go within limits of 65 north to 65 south , so to Greenland or Antarctic,or anywhere in between, with 12 month duration.
      Recently discovered a piece from the St John's Daily Star, Oct 1918, saying "village Belle Has A History", George M Barr having added this to his fleet. History before and after this is significant, but not public, most in my records.
      Not mentioned at all is the history of this ship by the Royal North West Mounted Police, who fitted it out for 3 years into Hudson Bay to investigate the murder of 2 white men by Eskimos. A terrific tale just there of hardship by the Mounties, who soon had to abandon the Village Belle, and travel over a thousand miles by dog team. One of those Mounties had a journal recently I got info on, his grand daughter living in BC. The heyday for sail, I was surprised was in the 1880s,(some in Nova Scotia built to 2000 ton, the Village Belle at 129 ton gross) but still common in Nfld in the 1930s.
      Yes Boris, where will he take Britain. His hair is yellow like Trump, is that a danger sign! Yellow is caution I guess. Even most American white women who love Trump seem to be blonds, or fake blonds. This a subjective opinion of course. Maybe Peckford will soon dye his hair. Is Ball Blond?
      Cheers for the holidays Robert.
      Winston Adams

  10. So, Tom is begging at Moreau's knee this AM. Should be spending his dime with AB guy. As a Canadian I believe any slush given out should have "Strings" attached; AB, get the Harmonized tax up and running, spend the slush fund on jobs to clean up the abandoned wells. NL, Disband the expensive and abusive NALCOR, send Stan to QC, learn to be fluently French speaking, and sell his expertise to the more experienced Corp., collaborate with HQ to get Muskrat power to NY transmission grid.

    • At first I thought you implied Stan get a QC (Queen's Counsel) as Stan is a lawyer, and an elite I guess.
      Stan fluent in French? I suppose there is such things a miracles.If MFs power goes west, the GE software issue may be on the back burner, and we move to wind for the Avalon to aid our island hydro. Today wind would be 100% capacity, 400 MW would be duck soup.
      Winston

  11. Yes, the digger published the trumpie rant for impeachment. They could impeach him just on that one rant alone with his warped scense of reality. So he now joins the small group of impeached presidents today. What Nixon did was Boy Scouts stuff compared to trumpie. And Bill did what millions of Americans do daily, cheat on their spouse and then lie about it. The hump pays millions to keep them quiet and lies about it, yet has a base of half the population of the USA and growing. What has God Wroth. But won't blame it on God, just the trumpie deamons and Demagogue says Joe blow.

  12. So, these condensers have spinning parts? Sounds like a honking big DC motor spinning an AC generator, or is that too simple?

    Story today on CBC posits could be well into winter 2020-2021 before anything gets transmitted, if the condensers work, if the software works, if the line doesn’t fail, if NALCOR doesn’t go under, if the Province doesn’t go under.

    • Tor, while DC is coming to Soldiers Pond, so is AC.
      The condensers are not DC. They are very large AC units, same as the the big generators at Holyrood, some of which can operate as condensers.
      Recall Stan, first up at the INquiry, telling of the synchronous condensers operating like big flywheels.
      Flywheels, like on an old Acadia boat engines, or on your car engine, when rotating , has kinetic energy for system stability.
      So when the voltage dips on the grid, these big condensers use the kinetic energy, as if like adding new generators, very fast, fractions of a second, to support the grid voltage and frequency, to keep things stable.
      But they have this energy only for a short while and start to slow their speed, but still very effective.
      Normally they run at at 60 cycle frequency, and use very little any energy.
      These units that are not rotating are likely jammed up, likely the shafts are bent, due to neglect during storage, like an old boat hauled up and the keel not supported, so it bends out of shape.
      I hear this building may be built around these units, and not suitable to easily pull out the rotors to see the problem.Not sure if that is the case, but hey, Murhpy's law, and Nalcor world class, what can go wrong?
      Winston Adams

    • Just saw Siobhan Coady say that those kinds of problems are to be expected during commissioning.So there you have it from a world class expert.No problem really.Agree with you about storage of these units,as I have also said so concerning the sitting on wharf in Bay Bulls for 18 months.In my work have seen many machines of varying size and voltage,but have never seen one that wouldn't turn or that vibrated so badly.Here we have three out of three.Not bad.Like I said before we may not have a choice about finishing but not operate.Are we still at 12.7b.?

  13. And now we court China for offshore oil development. Maybe 650 Hibernia fields out there yet, great new, hey b'ye. Our govn thinks so.A few months ago Nalor siad maybe 100 more Hibernia size sites, and a BOW WAVE of activity. Enough to maybe start Gull, and another 15 Billion debt? Rolling back CO2 and GHS requires 80% of known reserves to be kept in the ground.
    How does 650 or 10 more Hibernia fields jive with protecting the planet's climate balance? Recall, we use Ball's barrel, a Niddy Noddy size containing almost no CO2 when burned, ethical oil from magical thinking.
    China, is building a new coal fired plants every 2 weeks, the worst coal user in the world. As America EU, NS, and even Bruno cuts back on coal use, China uses more.
    We should sanction China against offshore here for failing the Paris Accord, not welcome them here. Even Bruno should squeak up on this crime.
    Meanwhile, our wind energy, everyone knows was intentionally left off the least cost option for Nfld, The Digger, Young Alfie, today says wind is not competitive with fossil fuels, wind is intermittent and no good he says. Tell Scotland and Texas that. In Texas, cattle farmers now making a million bucks per year leasing their land for the wind generators, wind @ 20 % , and has reached 40@ of Texs power occassionally. Here 2 PERCENT.
    Peckford , like Trump probably believes wind generators cause cancer.
    Imagine, a woman bangs the gavel and Impeaches Trump. Priceless. Like a kick in the #@% to the HUMP. He goes down in history. Even Nixon avoided impeachment.
    Can we impeach Ball for lying to the HOA?
    Winston Adams

  14. PENG2, you never responded to my last comments to you on Dec 15, previous UG post.
    You made a feeble defense of Nfld Powe/Fortis as to Take Charge, and never questioned by assessment of Betty's most all silly energy saving tips, and agreed the flyers are propaganda.
    You felt I should give credit for their donations of 4-5 million per year to Nfld charities, which I agreed is significant if that figure is correct. I questioned if any or much of that comes from ratepayer donations via Nfld Power. You did not clarify.
    Further as to ratepayer donations, small donations are not usually issued tax receipts to ratepayers. Are these claimed by Nfld Power as a tax credit to the corporations? I doubt it, but just asking. Same would go for Staples etc, what they do?
    Winston Adams.

    • Winston, what is current supply of coal fired NS power, across the Link?
      also, are turbines currently operating at Muskrat? Where does the generated power go?
      Is Holyrood at maximum output? and what is estimated daily fossil fuel consumption?
      We all await the New Year announcement as to Fed mitigation, bail, or do we expect just so me "free" money from Ottawa, while Stan puts on insulated gloves to become a human conductor of his excess generation:-)

    • WA @ 13:52:

      There are several sections of the tax code that deal with how 'customer' donations are recorded and credited – none of which allow a company like Fortis to claim a tax benefit. So, the $4-5m is a Fortis donation on-top of what Fortis donated c/o its customers – the $4-5m is eligible for a tax benefit but the amount in-trust from its customers is not.

      In considering Fortis and the donation on the power bill specifically – a customer could claim those amounts on their income tax via Schedule 9 as there is a recording of the amount donated and who the original donor is. When considering the amount given to say the Salvation Army kettles, counter change drums etc it becomes a more difficult(ie impossible unless a receipt is given on the spot) process to claim and track by anyone.

      PENG2

    • PENG2, if Nfld Power profits 40 million a year, 4-5 million a year in corporate donation here by Fortis is significant, it is "material"as lawyers might say. Maybe not as generous as Emera donations as a percentage of earnigs or revenue, but not sure on that.
      And I assume the 4-5 million excludes funds raised by Nfld Power employees or not?
      I assume Fortis would provide a breakdown of their donations?
      Doubt if small donations can be claimed on Schedule 9, if you have no receipt. The Salvation Army mailed out receipts, maybe over 10 or 20 dollars?
      The 500 send them as recommeded by AJ, I think they sent a receipt by mail, to me, not to AJ. So I get some back. My neighbour who is SA, seeks a donation to day. I told her( being busy today) if today $100, if tomorrow it can be more than 100, so she said Tomorrow, perhaps it will be 500, being in the Xmas spirit and all, ( actually I should do even more, as SA does good work, or so I think.
      Winston

    • Robert, last time I checked, import of NS coal power over the link, about 100 MW, stopped Nov 30.
      Present conditions I estimate Holyrood operating at about 50% capacity, about 250 MW, If 700MW from island hydro, Nfld Power Avalon about 100MW, Holyrood may get by with 150-200MW.
      If 250 MW, then about 9,000 bls per day. If in Ball's Niddy Noody barrel size, about 1-2 gallon barrel, then multiply those barrels by 40 or 20 for bls per day (LOL)….these are ethical Ball oil barrels, if from Hibernia, but with bunker C, not so clean , but better than NS coal.
      Past Time to tender for 400 MW of wind, as we see resonance at one condenserat Soldier's Pond and 2 more locked up can't rotate, and a DC converter station with no power to convert, and if power no proper GE software.
      MFs was to have first power this fall I though, but no announcement on that, so behind schedule again I guess.
      Stan's prediction : Finish up strong, seems a pipe dream. Never finish seems a possibility. This was PENG2 preference, more or less.
      But I have my Christmas light all on, indoors, most LEDs to make Take Charge and Betty happy.In France workers are deliberately cutting off power to 50,000 customers, over pension issues.
      In Australia ,climate change is giving them hell with record high temperatures and fires.
      So we are very lucky, we only face bankruptcy over MFs, could be much worse. If in Labrador, lucky the North Spur is holding yet.Better resonance vibration at the condenser that at the North Spur. Resonance is a danger sign. Even with Trump resonates about witch hunts, then about witches at Salem, and then says Polaski's teeth are falloig out, as if she is a witch! She may yet get the better of the HUMP.And if the Hump foes down, so does the Digger.
      But they are aligned with evil spirits we know,warlocks, digging coal and all.
      Cheers
      Keep the rudder operating, as you advise.
      Best to you Robert.
      Winston

      Time to bring the 230KV third line to Eastern Avalon, as island hydro is now constrained at Western Avalon.
      Winston

  15. Many of the christian churches overlooked the HUMP's moral faults, ( I can grab then by the pussie etc, and the stormy affair). But now we have the publication founded by Billy Graham calling out his moral failure big time, and endorceing his impeachment. Once they referred to him as like King David, who had moral faults, but fine with god they said. Now a big switch.
    Will the HUMP attack Franklin Graham, as he once attacked the pope?
    Maybe 2020 will be brighter, and America a shining light again?
    Winston

  16. From my perspective it seems our provincial government has all but abandoned trying to be fiscally responsible. In the absence of an immediate bailout or a return to much higher oil prices, increasingly unlikely, our province will almost certainly be insolvent within two to three years. So what's next? Will Newfoundland become the next Puerto Rico? Lets hope not. Puerto Rico was essentially bailed out by the US government at tremendous cost. Many pensioners for example faced significant reductions in their pensions under this scheme. With an ageing and declining population, similar to ours, the future remains dim.
    Many of our municipalities are actively making plans to deal with forecasted increases in utility costs. But they also have the capacity to increase revenues. This is not a luxury enjoyed by many of our seniors and countless others on low incomes, minimum wage or social assistance.
    If rates double, as many have suggested, or even increase by 25%, the impact on our business community will also be significant and harsh. While I'm no economist, it certainly doesn't take much evidence to extrapolate this and predict an ever increasing cycle of misfortune and collapse. To a degree we are already beginning to see this with essentially a collapse in new construction, expanding layoffs in the automotive sector, and declining revenue for our provincial government.
    I don't know if any of our fair economists at Memorial University can paint a more positive picture than this! Perhaps they may. Maybe there will be a wonderful new discovery somewhere on our fair shores, saphires and rubies perhaps that will take away all our troubles.

    • I totally agree.

      We are soon going to need a second Muskrat Falls Inquiry just to sort out exactly how we are going to pay for all of this?

      Time is quickly wasting away, and we have heard nothing but hot air from our political masterminds?

      Looking at this from the "outside" it is like watching a slow motion train wreck?

      Truly at this point I don't think our Government has a sweet clue how we are going to pull this off?

      As we have seen with our latest revised deficit numbers we are having extreme difficulty paying for our day to day operations as a Province, let alone taking on the task of cleaning up the financial mess that is known as Muskrat Falls!

      We were at a critical turning point when Dwight Ball formed Government in 2015.

      There were critical decisions that needed to be made regarding both Muskrat Falls and our out of control spending that was happening when they assumed office.

      Unfortunately Dwight Ball took the status quo approach?

      Not to mention that our overall spending as a Province has actually increased since Ball assumed power!

      We are now facing some monumental decisions that are going to have be made in the very near future.

      At this point a "Puerto Rico" scenario maybe our only way out?

  17. The madness has started. Gander raising taxes to pay for utility bills. Oh oh! We knew it was coming and we still have no plan to deal with it. Us elders are doomed to freeze in the dark, Ralph Klein said it first.

    • Better off putting the money otherwise spent on a bloody heat pump towards the cost of relocating to a province that isn't run like a backwards, kleptocratic northern banana republic.

      Get out if you can, for the sake of your kids' future, if anything…

    • Hey, Tor, you say Convince the condo board. If you search you will find there is no incentive for apartment or condo building owners to install HPs, as they install cheap baseboard heaters and pass along heating costs to customers.
      A few condo projects have been done in Halifax with minisplits.
      I suggest you and say 4 more in your building if you get them, approach and ask for Hps to be installed. (Acontractor will do reduce the price some if more than unit) Either you pay the costs and own them, or building owner pays and charge you monthly fee, more than offset by much lower heating costs.
      Maybe Take charge will offer some incentive, but doubt it.
      Main point Tor, you ask others to convince the condo board, why not you and your fellow condo dwellers? Take some initiative ,man. Let us know the result.
      Or follow the lead of anon, who is leaving the province, or is he staying put and asking you to leave? You can run or take a stand.

    • Too old to run, too siick to fight.
      Don’t concern yourself with the past it is over.
      Don’t concern yourself with the future it hasn’t happened yet.
      Don’t concern your self with the present I didn’t get you one.

      I managed to get new low e glass patio doors in all units and I invested in insulating blinds for doors and windows. So far cut back power use about 45 to 50 percent over first year July to July bill, estimated half way through to now for year four.

      When it doubles I hope to be able to stay stable by dollars, essential for low incomers.

    • Tor, the most reactionary of building management organizations is the condo form, called Strata in BC. One must remember that the Condo, vs Public Landlord system came after Liberals sucked the Co-op, non profit funding under Chretien 1990's governance policy. Real Estate and Banks conspired to get Developers to build at $100/sf, sell for $400/sf, walk away, leaving the problems; Leaky envelopes, failed M&E, elevators, mould, etc. to weak, self serving building committees. Hope this Boondoggle Bubble is replaced sometime soon, with a movement towards Sustainable Development, and reasonably built and affordable housing for a Society, who need to rent, not own their own home.

  18. You don't need Government assistance to make a happy home and neighbourhood. Too much time and emphasis on blaming the Gov., everywhere. We can all look around our community and find worthwhile things to do to help our family and others get through the bad times. Our parents found ways forward, and we will do the same. Bonne Annee.

  19. Seems climate breakdown is underway, and very evident in Australia at present.
    Record high temperatures and bush and forest fires, even rain forest areas burn. Fires so large they generate thier own dry lighting without rain and set more fires. Alice in Wonderland type events that is not supposed to happen.
    This has 3 causes, 2 are natural variation of climate, the IDO and SAM, and the third is climate change with elevated temperatures and drought.
    This the Christmas season, and a state of emergency, and many advised not to travel.
    Australia Prime Minister, who like the Digger, and Trump, who digs coal and fossil fuels, was vacationing in Hawaii with his family, but keeping it secret, until found out, Now he is coming home as citizens are outraged by his absence an inaction on climate change, and promoting coal mines.
    Earlier this season they boasted of having 2 firefighters coming from New Zealand to help out the thousands fighting the fire, Now 30 coming from Canada and one from Newfoundland.
    Ssems a show of British Commonwealth support. These being flown half way around the world, adding more CO2 from air travel. I guess firefighters, closer, that are non British roots are not as good.
    Forests are supposed to be a carbon sink, to absorb CO2,but now being a contributor to more CO2 to the atmosphere.
    Locally we are helping Mother Earth, 650 leads for more oil deposits offshore we are told. What's not to like? We just lost 2.6 million young salmon, high ocean temperature the cause we are told. Maybe we can lose 5 million next year?
    Bright news: Osie eggs, some say whore's eggs, which the gulls have feasted on for centuries, now going commercial by Danny Dumeresque. Taken 2 or 3 years to get this going, Danny underestimated I think.
    Now lumpfish to be grown on shore. How many resources under utilized here, starting with wind energy, and our temperate climate, the air is a ignored resource, for air source heat pumps. Not all doom and gloom. If only we can avoid full climate breakdown.Now one climate crisis per week world wide, and extreme weather up form 400 a year in 2000 to 800 a year in 2018. Must get worse before getting better, if it ever gets better.
    For now we are very lucky, wouldn't want to be n Australia. Here we have just a sprinkle of snow, looking good, Christmas like.

    Winston Adams

  20. Do you need your generator on stand by for Xmas?

    Our grid peak load last year hit about 1780 MW.
    On Dec 7, 8, 9 10, we had 1320, 1400, 1351, 1128 MW, with 1400 at -5C
    Nfld Hydro usually posts these one day after, but nothing I can see for the past 10 days. No coal imports I can see, a blessing.
    Stan should get a lump of coal in his stocking this Christmas, and Ball and a few others. Another small delay Stan says on the GE software, and Stan likes coal fired imports.
    Stan do resemble the Grinch that stole Christmas, when he smiles, do others see that? No doubt his Fortis dividends will compensate for coal in his stocking. Even PENG2 should be smiling on his Fortis dividends and stock rise. I await his confirmation on charitable donations by Fortis in Nfld, he is slow responding.
    So…..the forecast, tomorrow -5C, Dec 27th -3C, other wise milder in between. The grid load should present no problems to Nfld Hydro to be almost 400MW below last year (when we had maybe 100MW coal import and 100 MW of CFs power on 1 DC pole. Even without that, we should be fine, for now.
    Holyrood operators last year saved our ass, I think.
    Stan should be giving this outlook for the holiday season, not me. Or the Light And Power boys CEO, who are the face of the power distribution.
    I have an extra 5 gallon gas container for my generator, but still empty.Not worried right now.
    Winston

    • WA @ 10:38:

      Have a look at the posted financial info – it is quite clear that they match donations and what is claimed on their income statement (and thus to Revenue Canada) is exclusive of employee or any other donations.

      No matter how it is dreamt up – companies can only claim donations out of their pocket, donations from employees, community etc are NOT claimed to Revenue Canada. To claim donations otherwise is tax fraud.

      Hope this finally clears this up.

      PENG2

    • Winston, it seems evident that people with means on the Avalon, are turning to purchasing heat pumps, solar panels and the like to reduce their dependence on the grid, and oil. Who is monitoring the change in energy use? If not, should this not be task 1 with regards to the the PUB? St. John's Climate Change Coordination? The Power Supply industry are in for some reduced demand shock here, don't you think?

      We are having a warming spell here in East Kootenay. Little or no snow in a Ski Biz dependent Region. Temp 8C today. The only agency give a damn is the local Ktunaxa Band, who have a solar recharge station, with unground structure for small solar farm. Nobody monitoring energy use. No Net Zero goals set, no Municipal plan. Were are at the mercy of Tory rule. Disgusting!

    • I would estimate that instead of average peak demand going up as Statton forecast to justify MFs, it has gone down about 50 MW over just the last 3-4 years, despite adding houses. Yet under extreme circumstances with very cold and high winds and programmable thermostats for baseboard heating, we can set a new winter peak, which we did last winter I think on one day.
      Cold climate Hps can counter increases in peak load, and reduces energy sales, whereas standard ones peter out when very cold. Cold climate ones should be mandatory, or incentives for them,(even NB gave incentives for cold climate models to specifically reduce winter peak loads. They counter fuel burn at Holyrood even when very cold. Nfld Power went against that 4 years ago, at the PUB.
      But trust the power companies, PUB, and govn to do the opposite: no preference for cold climate models, convert schools to baseboard heat, and promote programmable thermostats to assure large thermal generation capacity is needed at Holyrood. Also no wind generation added, and no removing the restriction of only 2 -230kv island hydro east of Long Hr area.
      They have all their eggs in the DC/MFs power and its reliability, and we wait and we wait for Stan's string finish, but they have fatigue he says. So too we all have Muskrat fatigue.

      Anon @18;24> yes that is true, climate has been changing for millions of years, with ice ages and also extreme heat. What is new is humans who were smart enough to mine coal, and drill for oil and gas, all this in the last few hundred years. But most not smart enough to see the consequences that too much of any good thing is bad. A friend has a saying : What can you do about stupid? Does this apply anon?
      Winston

    • Recall they spent about 100 million just before sanction to assure power arrived in 2017, which was to save about 150 million on Holyrood fuel just that year. Meanwhile lots of fuel still being burnt,now soon 2020, and plus hundreds of millions on interest costs due to years of delay.
      Bad bearings Stan said> on all 3 units?
      To be sure they never left the factory with bad bearings. Checks before shipping, on rotatng freely would have been assured and checked and witnessed as normal procedure.
      These while idle should be rotated 180 degree, I figure once every 30 days, but another engineer tells me maybe once every 3 to 6 months, but would be whatever the manufacturer recommends. If sitting for 18 months at bay Bulls and not rotated, it is likely a bent shaft from that. Has none asked it proper procedure was done?
      Or Stan blowing smoke to the public and media who questions little, just repeats Nalcor statements.
      If proper procedures were done, someone please correct the speculation of us skeptics.
      WA

    • Yes ,we should know if proper preservation procedures were followed.What's going to happen when running of the turbines at Muskrat Falls powerhouse is attempted.Those were also on the ground at Goose Bay for 2 years.

    • For the S condensers, they are horizontal, so need occasional rotating while idle or shafts bend. The turbines are mounted vertical, and I assume stored vertical, and should avoid the bending, but maybe they stored them horizontal, to assure damage. This a make work project, and the longer the better : Never finish the motto. PENG2 said finish but don't operate.

      Peak Load , now 1338 @ -6C, recently we had 1400 @-5C. Mostly cloudy here in the east end, but the weather channel shows part sunny, and sunny can knock 75 MW off………(So Betty, on the Nfld Power flyer) has the great idea, energy saving tip, of opening your curtains in the day, as if everyone does the opposite)
      Winston

  21. December has been hectic:
    1. My wife's stage 4 colon cancer, giving only 10 % chance of a cure, seemed conquered. Worse had been the spread to her liver. She has had 3 liver resections, one locally and 2 in Texas (one operation there), and now 1 full year and many scans showed no new tumors in the liver or else where. But a signal , blood CEA reading was increasing in recent months, then the new PET scan here picked up 2 new tumors early December, close to the liver in the lining of the abdomen. CTs and MRIs had failed to detect these. By Friday we are advised a surgery procedure in Halifax seems prudent, so : not to panic we are told. She remains physically very healthy. Last 2 Christmases was a wipe out, this one is not so bad, despite this setback.
    2. My discussion with PENG2 as to charitable donations; how charitable is Fortis/ Nfld Power? I'm still unsure of what PENG2 is telling me.
    3. Climate Change, and the crisis in Australia, the failure at Madrid. Then yesterday , Gwynne Dyer's piece in the Telegram. His final words "So one by one, we are missing all the exists on the Highway to Hell"
    Dyer, born in St John's, his pieces carried in 175 newspapers worldwide, and in 45 countries. I thought I had something in common with him, wondered if he was an engineer that turned to journalism. Not so. He was in the Naval Reserve,(I was in the Officer training for just 2 years, and then abandoned it to work at Churchill falls construction) Dyer is an expert in military history, and published Climate Wars, a decade ago, even then some client scientists were in panic mode ( when Greta was only 6 and only recently panicked ) as to where we are heading, and the military too planning for climate wars.
    Dyer quotes UN Sec Gen" The point of no return is no longer over the horizon" but they ignore it anyway says Dyer.
    Australia Prime Minister brought a lump of coal into parliament" It was "clean coal, it won't hurt you" he says as he passed it around to colleagues.
    Dyer says the World Meteorologist Organization predicts a collapse of the food production, famines, huge refugee flows and mass death. The "Highway to Hell" says Dyer, as we head for runaway coonditions of feedbacks of tipping points that humans cannot stop.
    Or, we can believe Young Alfie, (the Digger), and Ball, and Andy Wells> Don't worry , be happy.
    online I discover Dyers intereviews with top scientists and miltiary people in 2008, th esource fo rhis boook, Climat Wars.
    4. On my search on Fortis , as Suggested by PENG2, I see only about 1.5 million donations by Fortis, (not the 8-10 million, 4-5 by fortis to match 4-5 by other donors) but got side tracked on their "Sustainability Report". One of the greatest piece of propaganda I have ever seen is my initial reaction. Unbeleiveable. They align with the UN sustainability goals…. sure they do! Has PENG2 seen and read it? What does he think of it?
    Winston Adams

    • LOL. That board room is on the floor above us. They were all likely appointed by the "Independent" Appointments Commission, which is currently headed by a former Fortis vice president. Stan Marshall is a former Fortis CEO.

    • Average wattage for heating 3500 sqft with heat pump last night in St. John's was 2500 Watts, whole house at 20C and about -10 outside. A cold climate model would do better. However, this is far less than I used to use with baseboard. Heat pumps are all over the place – power demand will continue to decline.

    • o.7 watts per st ft is excellent for -10C, and not aware if Nfld POwer has ever changed their recommendation from the 1960s to install 10 watts per sq ft, although many contractors install not that much.
      At 5;30 am the peak load was 1270 MW, it may have dropped to close to 1200 by 3 or 4 am, and ramped up a little by 5:30. By 7:55 it was up to 1492 MW, and dropped to 1484 by 8:15, the sun then up for almost 30 minutes.
      So likely nearly 300 MW fired up at Holyrood from 4 to 8 am, most due to the programmabe thermostats do their evil work, as is the plan here, and so likely all 3 large Holyrood units huffing and puffing, just for the Avalon, approaching 18,000 bls per day rate, for a few hours. Certainly power energy used due to hps will reduce power sales and less energy used, and less GHGs, and peak demand too if not intentionally keeping it high with these big morning ramp ups.
      As AJ says, these experts can't smooth the winter HUMP. Even ignoring Synapse. All should get coal in their stockings for this unnecessary large fuel burning for decades here.
      Winston

    • History will vindicate those who accepted the science of more efficient space heating and power use, over traditional high capital cost mega hydro on Northern rivers, needing long and vulnerable transmission lines. People like Winston, with the vision, will be lauded in the NL Engineering History of accomplishment. Stan and Ed will be minor footnotes.

  22. I'm guessing right about now with all these latest "issues" with our beloved Muskrat Falls project, from delayed software to non-functioning equipment, possibly due to inactivity, improper storage/maintenance etc. it is becoming more painfully evident with each passing day, that NALCOR are simply not capable of organizing a one-man run to two-man shit house?

    Fatigue at this point and time is the least of NALCOR'S issues!

    Let the law suits begin!

    Another huge payday awaits for a quite a few of our local legal beagles!

    "The tangled web you weave, when first you practice to deceive."

  23. I don't understand how the bearings in two brand new machines are bad and a third ones vibrates so much they need to reinforce a building.

    If the machines were stored improperly (not periodically rotated, or stored in the wrong orientation) then parts might have deformed. If this is the case, then it is probably more than just the bearings that will have a problem.

    Lets say the shafts in all three bent. Replacing the bearings with identical ones (unless they are twisted) will do nothing, and even if it does rotate, the machines will vibrate. I would analyze the vibrations from the one machine that does rotate and determine the root cause. There are all sorts of tools for this kind of work. If Nalcor doesn't have a clue, then they need to immediately hire someone that does. I don't believe a word that comes from Stan's month — he is no better than the rest of the pathetic cast of parasites and behaves as a politician.

    The movie clip above of a leaked Nalcor board meeting is pretty funny. Unfortunately, we are in the room below that meeting.

    • From the 8th quarterly monitoring report:

      "Just-discovered LIL synchronous condenser vibration and binding issues threaten high-power LIL testing and operation. Causes remain uncertain, and potential remedies have only conceptual solutions identified (and no engineering to support their feasibility or to predict their effectiveness). Should these issues continue into next June, they may prevent or significantly restrict power flows over the LIL during commissioning, and could have an impact on the power flows during the 2020/2021 winter."

      "Management reports that a number of conceptual solutions have been identified, but root-causes are not yet certain, effectiveness of the conceptual solutions has not been verified, and no engineering or design of those solutions has occurred. Management is not prepared to rule out the risk that major work and extended delay may occur, but has expressed hope that neither will be required."

      Note the use of the word "hope". Pathetic.

      "Some solutions under consideration (e.g., foundation modifications) appear destined, if ultimately required to produce delay well beyond next spring. A delay into or past June of 2020, well within reason if interim solutions or a fairly expeditious longer-term fixes do not prove feasible, may prove very problematic."

      Modifying a concrete foundation to handle excess vibration from a rotating machine sounds like a desperate kludge.

      "The operation of the synchronous condensers, which is not possible with the current uncertainties, is necessary to permit bi-pole commissioning testing at greater than low power levels. However, the Maritime Link may (although not yet confirmed) prove able to provide support during required bipole testing. However, protection of the Nova Scotia system appears likely to lead its operator to impose significant constraints on step changes and the frequency of occurrence in the Maritime Link power flow."
      j
      Will we ask for permission to test the condensers on Maritime Link power, or just ask for forgiveness if testing cause as fault on the Nova Scotia side?

      This looks like an expensive clown show to me.

    • Stan and the boyz are fatigued because maybe some of the Hydro Engineers are starting to realize that long weather and software stressed transmission lines are a big problem;

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-solar-energy-dpenergy-1.5403001

      Solar farms just next door to the demand centre, offer more distributed and reliable, renewable power right on site. How big a load for Galway/Mt. Pearl, CBS could be taken off the LIL in effort to diminish potential brownouts?

    • And once upon a time, all in the feudal dominion of Nfld spoke of the advantages of joining the North American grid. No down sides said the accountant, Ed Martin,and the cable engineer, Gilbert Bennett. The Nfld Hydro controls and protection engineer must have been muzzled. So too, Nfld Power and Fortis was under the cone of silence.
      Maybe it was me that on UG that suggested serious reliability risks. But who pays attention to a voice in the wilderness?
      I have mentioned Texas operates essentially on it's own, independent of other grids. Likewise HQ is not synchronised with others. And YES Virginia,if our grid is unstable it could cause outages in Scotia Scotia, and also impact HQ. There are tight regulations to avoid that happening, and all at an expense on the Nfld ratepayer……..but nobody in authority, no world class engineer from Nalcor told us. We knew Naclor was world class because Dunderdale told us so, over and over and over. Ed told her.
      PENG2 would argue that the average Nflder should know all that,understand all these risks and should have voted against the project.
      Liberty early reports was subtle to imply maybe Muskrat should have been halted, was my take, but that was not their mandate to say more. Nobody took the hint. So we stumble on, and on, and on, with no end in site.
      If Stan was asked now if this is still a boondoggle, would he be a straight shooter? Guess not, as he downplays these major problems.
      I see Fortis CEO Perry says Stan is Nfld's version of Warren Buffet. I am an admirer of Buffet, and once admired Stan some, and still a little, but less each passing day. But I would not suggest he is Warren Buffet class.
      Buffet likes efficiency of trains, like Greta.
      Buffet has his will made, I have a copy, all of his assets going to charity.
      Buffet's stake in power companies has higher ethics and standards to efficiency considerations and GHG impacts.
      Just those puts Buffet in a different class, I think.
      Buffet advocates higher taxes on the rich, including himself. Ever hear Stan say that?
      For all these GHSs from the Holyrood smokestacks, Stan should get coal in his stocking. No joke.
      Winston Adams

    • WA @ 10:53:

      Again, you misquote me – I have never 1x said average Nflder should have had an indepth understanding of the risks, technical aspects of MF etc.

      What I did say, it that there was significant dissension opinion presented over the years that should of raised doubts – instead, 80% bought the 'energy warehouse' political B$. In fact we still have elected member in the HoA that voter for MF – KP in your area is one of them – so, yes the electorate is responsible for the actions of the political they elect. Fool me 1x maybe you can blame that on a crook – but fool me 5x is fault of the fool.

      And even now, we have some extolling the 'great' Paul Lane – wasnt he a great supporter of Bill 29, all things MF, admittedly guilty of skewing public opinion polls etc???

      Again, at least try to quote correctly – otherwise you are as bad as a politician….

      PENG2

    • Me baddddd, PENG2, if I misquote you. Maybe like the Lambs rum, I'm that baddd, I'm good, is their motto.
      No doubt your quote is what you said, but I have never agreed that the mild dissension of a few, and little investigative journalism by the main media could translate to informed citizens on the complex MFs scheme. I can agree that a portion, regardless would ignore the science and details, as too there are many who ignore lots of evidence on climate change.
      So I say what I think you imply, which I think is wrong.
      As for Lane, we must allow, with a grain of salt, maybe a big grain, that he had a conversion on the road to Damascus. As for KP in our area, I voted Green I think, certainly not KP.
      Fool me once, maybe you are a crook, but 5 times and I'm a fool is a good saying. So how often are we being fooled by the Take Charge crowd? Over the last 10 year is is 120 times we are fooled by their mailed out flyers, and many times on TV. We are either incredibly stupid or being fooled by big times crooks, big scallywags, would you agree?
      Would I make a successful politician, do you think, to intentionally misquote you? Sometimes I wonder if you try to fool me? But I want to think not.
      Tis the season to be merry. So good wishes to you and yours PENG2, for the holidays and 2020. Stay engaged, and call me out when you see fit.
      Winston

  24. Winston?

    The two of you are soon going to need to get a room?

    I was almost feeling the sound of heavy breathing as I read your post!

    Please do not give PENG2 another reason to have more of a swelled head than he/she has?

    But alas I am also fatigued?

    Fortunately, I am not a NALCOR employee!

    Mine is the good old fashioned fatigue, chasing around my Grandchildren on this wonderous Christmas season!

    Maybe Santa could bring Stan a bag of money?

    Bare minimum a sweet deal on some first class German engineered bearings for the "hamster wheels" that are supposed to protect us all from a doomed eternity living in the dark!

    In the meantime, have a very Merry Christmas one and all!

    I have already bought extra propane cylinders, and replaced the stale gas in my generator!

    All I need now is for Santa to bring me a bottle of only the finest Eldorado 21 Year Rum!

    Then I will be completely fatigued!

  25. Will our grid capacity be taxed in this unexpected snow storm?

    Usually our grid will peak at about 8AM, on a working day, but being Xmas eve, many with manual thermostats still, and some sleeping later, we see only 1218 MW at 8am, and now at 1336. That is still 156 MW lower than on Dec 19 when it was -10C, it being milder at -2 C. At present we are about 440 MW lower than last year 's winter peak at about -19C and windy.
    I suggest, don't worry, but be prepared, salt contamination on the lines near Holyrood took down the grid for 6 hrs during DARKNL. Mild temperatures permits the salt on insulators to flashover. This is expected about 1 in 10 year near Holyrood, so not very high risk. But I have failed to fill my spare gas container, not expecting this snow storm.

    For those with minisplits, the next 24 hrs is about the worse conditions; blowing snow and relatively mild, and high humidity, likely > 98% RH. This reduces a good air source HP from a COP of 3 (300 % effieint, to COP of 2 (200 % efficient). Why so? Due to many more defrost cycles to melt the snow an ice on the outdoor coil. How often will it defrost? Under extreme conditions I have seen about 30 per day, about every 45 minutes. Yet they are rugged and handle this outdoors, rare to be a problem, but worth checking on. . For best practice(attic mount) 30 defrosts is reduced to about 4-5 defrosts, and never a shut down for snow loads, not once in 10 years to worry about snow storms.
    So Stan said at the Inquiry that HPs putter out at cold temperatures and no peak demand reduction. That a load of horseshit from Stan. Peter Alteen , trying to save face for Stan, said Hps have limits in cold weather. Sure, but he never said what were the limits, and no one asked. Synapse was to provide that answer, but government turned it over to Nfld Power, who are in a conflict of interest to to good studies on that. I have measured COP of 2.7 at -17 C, and likely about 2.5 at -20 or a bit colder. Now at -2 c expect COP of 2.0. So cold temperatures is NOT the issue for most of Nfld. Intentional misleading the public or ignorant of the technology and our climate here, either of these or both?
    On this, which is technical, but not rocket science, PENG2 will for sure agrees with me, and not with Stan or Peter? Unless of course you are using a unit that is not a cold climate model, which is fine with our power companies here, as we see from their Take Charge BS. Their study may not even use cold climate models to get a bad result?
    BFA need not worry as to my attraction to PENG2: Stay close to your friends and closer to your enemies may apply. PENG2 bends only a little in my direction, and defends most engineers and most all Fortis related issues. But not always. He gets "pissed" if I misquote him. And one should be generous with good wishes in this Christmas season, with sincerity. Maybe PENG2 , like Paul Lane , will be converted?
    Winston Adams

    • WA, NLH and NP assume the average minisplit user is a klutz who will serve their baseboard heat only 1 or 2 degrees below the minisplit so they have lively backup. If used in this way, during a defrost cycle – especially long defrost like happened today – the baseboard heat would kick in and might even take over full heating duty. Sure users can be trained how to best use their appliances but NLH and NP have their doubts. This may be the smoking gun they are looking for in their new monitoring program for minisplit users to see when such misbehaviours occur.

    • Sorry, anon, but I assume no electric baseboard is needed, and has the baseboard set at only 50F to protect pipes if the HP fails and you're not home. No baseboard used in 10 years now for my installation that the HP covers. . Of course for this you size the minisplit for capacity to meet the heating load to at least -15C or lower.
      Defrost is typical for 10 minutes, and then the temperatures drops less than 1 C, so not a problem. If a air tight house, the temp drops less than 0.5 C for 10 minutes.
      I don't assume users are klutz, but should be made aware of correct operating procedures, and contractors should be educated for heat loss calculating , and sizing and best practices.
      Yes, not only NP and NLH think this will be poorly operated,and poorly sized but hope they will, to keep energy sales high, and instead of educating for best practices, they usually monitor what is already installed, which is NOT best practice but run of the mill installations.They should monitor for well sized and installed quality units. Otherwise they can blame the contractor or homeowner and say: See, not delivering peak demand reduction. This is already their method in the past , but not even now informing about cold climate models, and these around for 15 years already.
      Winston

  26. Santa was good. I got 4 new books on Nfld History.
    The power didn't fail. Peak load today , about 1260 MW at present is much like yesterday.
    Remarkable , perhaps is that last night @ 12;30 am, it was only 1055 MW, then by 1:10 am it was 1009 MW, and by 1:15 Am only 1005 MW, so it may have dipped just below 1000Mw, with temp at -2C. But it pops up always with the baseboard heating loads in the morning.
    At 1000MW we could meet that with all island hydro, which has nearly 1200 MW, but we are constrained by our transmission to the Avalon east. And too the Holyrood units can't be shut down, as they must operated as significant minimum loads, so likely all 3 were operating, burning lots of fuel, while all could be met by our hydro capacity for those hours. Holyrood has very old, inefficient units.

    Bruno failed to inform us of the first significant battery flight in BC on Nov 10, an old Beaver float plane, with an electric motor and battery , flew for 3 minutes. That could get you from Portugal Cove to Bell Island. I saw the video. That is better than the Wright Brothers in 1903. This is a significant step in aviation. Soon electric planes will be used for short hop trips.
    And too Ford has anew Mustang EV. And Quebec has 43 % of all EVs now in Canada, they require dealers to sell a minimum portion of EVs, and also incentives of 8000 plus the fed 5000 incentive. BC now requiring dealers to have minimum EV sales.

    My cottage not much used lately, i set my thermostat from 23 C to 19C. I tested it once and found i could warm it up to 23C after 10 minutes, not bad. So maybe it would save 10% or so over the winter?
    My power bill shows 25 % reduction from the same period last year. Part of this is from reduced heat loss. Part from the HP being more efficient at the lower temperature. Cooler air entering the head makes the heat transfer more efficient. KWH for a month was only 348, including the HP, the fridge and deep freeze, about 43.00 for energy used.
    About 6 am there was a noise at my house, the east end office room was chilled almost to freezing, the back door ajar about 6 inches. Not sure if it was the wind or Santa left it open, as my chimney has not been used now for 15 years.
    We know Santa does not use fossil fuel, and chimneys not necessary. Nothing worse from Santa than a black lump of coal in a stocking. 2 of my books are as suggested by Ed Hollett in his piece.
    Winston

    • Merry Christmas Winston. Each person is not an island. Each can lend a hand to help resolve humanity's problems. Though not Catholic, I still carry in my mind, Pope John's wish for Catholic Youth; "Build a Civilization, worthy of Humanity". Tell me about your neighbourhood; Demographics, struggles, aspirations. Do they share your concerns for carbon dependency, reliance deficiencies of the grid, state of preparedness for blackouts, capability to build back domestic solutions such as you have to protect them and their family from fail:-)