Guest
Post by David Vardy
Department
of Finance Bypassed
Former
Finance Minister Cathy Bennett told the Muskrat Falls Inquiry this week that
upon her appointment to the Finance portfolio in 2015 she discovered the
Department had been marginalized. Bennett said she was not going to allow it to
continue. She invoked the Financial Administration Act (FAA) which provides
broad powers to the Minister. She said that where there is conflict with Nalcor
and its governing legislation, the Energy Corporation Act (ECA) the FAA will trump the ECA.
Nalcor
had been successful in bypassing not only the Department of Finance but also
the Executive Council Office as well. Previous premiers had allowed the Nalcor
CEO direct access to the Premier’s office and this allowed the Nalcor CEO to
tell provincial officials that his actions had been approved by the Premier so
they had better watch out. Most of these meetings went without formal record,
unlike the Cabinet system where the Clerk issues official records of Cabinet
decisions.
Vic
Young urges fiscal review
An
Exhibit (P-00924) made public by the Muskrat Falls Inquiry discloses that
former NL Hydro CEO Vic Young wrote to Nalcor CEO Ed Martin to emphasize the
importance of measuring the impact of Muskrat Falls on the fiscal position of
the province. “Given the magnitude of the numbers, it is imperative that the
potential impact on the fiscal position of the Province be at the top of the
decision making chain…even more important than power rates at this stage. It
is the Province that needs the potential financial consequences independently
assessed (independent from Nalcor) and it is this independent financial review
that should be tabled and debated in the House of Assembly so that the people
of the Province do not end up with a big negative fiscal surprise, as they did
with Churchill Falls. Government must, therefore, be brutally frank and
transparent about the potential fiscal risks and presumably Tom Marshall will
start that process in his upcoming budget…just a personal view! Vic”
 |
| Vic Young |
is no evidence that the financial review recommended by Vic Young was ever
undertaken. Nor was it clear that the government was given all the information
it needed to understand the impact of the project on the finances of the
province, more important in Mr. Young’s view than power rates. We have heard
that the quantitative risk analysis which recommended that a strategic risk
reserve be included in the cost estimate was not provided to the province. Nor
was it provided to the Board of Directors of Nalcor.
Failure
to disclose
The
Inquiry has interviewed a number of former Ministers and Board members to
determine if cost overruns from the date of sanction to the financial close of
the project a year later were reported and whether they knew that the cost
estimate on November 29, 2013, the date of financial close was higher than the
estimate on December 17, 2012, the date of sanction. The testimony reveals that
information on cost overruns was tightly held and not disclosed to Nalcor’s
Board or to the government. The record also shows that Nalcor was not providing
cost data to the federal government and to its Independent Engineer on a timely
basis.
The
Commission has been assessing why the cost overruns took place and how
effectively the project was managed. The work of its forensic auditor has played
an important role in examining construction costs and identifying witnesses.
Byzantine
financial arrangements
This
post deals with the unusual financial arrangements by which the project is
being financed and the mechanisms for recovering costs through power rates.
These are quite different from the approach taken by regulated utilities that
come under the supervision and oversight of the PUB. They have not been clearly
explained or understood.
The
difference relates principally to the recovery of equity costs. It is well
known that the province has committed itself to a “completion guarantee” which
calls upon them to provide whatever equity financing is required to complete
the project. At the time of sanction the amount of provincial equity required was
$1.9 billion. It is now approximately $4 billion and would be $2.9 billion
higher if not for the second loan guarantee.
The
bondholders who funded what is now $7.9 billion in debt expect to get their
interest return on an annual basis. While we are told that the $4 billion in
provincial equity will be repaid and that dividends are “guaranteed” this is
far from a certainty. In the case of the equity invested in the power plant and
in the transmission line between Churchill Falls and Muskrat Falls the rate of
return on equity is set at 8.4%.
In
theory, the recovery of the equity and dividends depends upon the take-or-pay
power purchase agreement (PPA) between Hydro and the Muskrat Falls Corporation
(MFC). In reality it depends upon the ability of NL Hydro to recover sufficient
revenues to recover all costs and to allow for dividends. In practical terms
this depends on the demand for electricity. With declining provincial
population the growth in demand is highly unlikely to reach the target set by
Nalcor. A PPA cannot “guarantee” a rate of return which depends on the
fundamental economic viability of the project. In a private enterprise economy
the notion of a guaranteed return on equity is an oxymoron.
The
business case for this project was weak from the beginning. With the doubling
of capital costs it is highly unlikely there will be any dividends. The
investment is highly speculative and represents a high risk for a small
province with a very narrow economic base. In all likelihood government will
eventually convert all or part of its investment into a contribution-in-aid of
construction, a direct subsidy. This has already been raised as an option in
the PUB Inquiry into Rate Mitigation.
I
can find no evidence that Cabinet was informed of the unusual cost recovery
methodology upon which the financing of Muskrat Falls is grounded. This hybrid
cost recovery system was disclosed at the 2012 PUB hearing but it is not
clearly described in the documents disclosed by the Inquiry. Its purpose is to
reduce power rates in the early years using a methodology known as “escalating
supply prices” under which the real cost per unit of energy remains the same
after adjusting for inflation. In order to recover costs it depends upon
significant growth in demand and it is only if that growth takes place will the
return on equity of 8.4% be paid. If the growth in demand does not occur then
there will be no return on equity and the value of the assets will have to be
written down.
The
Muskrat Falls Inquiry is searching to find out what Ministers and other public
officials were told. What will they discover when they probe into the arcane
financing of the project and the extravagant claims that it would yield rich
dividends into the future?
When
Cathy Bennett was asked this week whether she was familiar with this cost
recovery scheme she indicated that she did not know about it. Ms. Bennett had
long served as Board member and acted as chair for a period of time. How many
other Board members were unaware of the high risk associated with the
province’s equity investment into this highly speculative project? How many
Ministers were aware of just how fragile those dividends were?
Understatement
of Capital Costs
Another
important anomaly that emerges from this hybrid cost recovery scheme relates to
an understatement of the costs of the project. Under the escalating supply
price methodology the return of the 8.4% is “baked into” the annual revenue
requirements. The latest cost estimate is $12.7 billion, including direct costs
of $10.1 billion plus financing costs of $2.6 billion. This $2.6 billion is
intended to reflect the cost of committing funds during the construction phase
and before any revenues are generated. The $2.6 billion includes the cost of
interest during construction (IDC) but it does not include the full cost of
equity capital invested in the project.
The
Labrador Island Link (LIL) is the transmission line connecting Muskrat Falls
with Soldiers’ Pond outside St. John’s. It is financed with a combination of
equity from Emera Energy and equity from the Government of Newfoundland and
Labrador. For the LIL Nalcor has included interest during construction as well
as an allowance for equity funds used during construction (AFUDC), which
follows normal cost recovery practice. In contrast, generation assets are funded solely by the
GNL but Nalcor assigns a zero cost for equity during construction. This leads
to an understatement of financing costs of approximately $1 billion and an
understatement of total project cost in the same amount. Please refer to the
technical Appendix for a more complete explanation.
Conclusion
At
the Muskrat Falls Inquiry each day brings new revelations that the project was
flawed in both conception and execution. The financial review recommended by
Vic Young is as relevant as ever, too. Today, just as it was the case prior to
sanction, we still need to understand the impact of the project on the finances of the province and the role played by a PPA between two Crown Corporations who are not at
arm’s length from each other. We need to understand how the province’s credit
rate will be affected when the province is forced to acknowledge that the
project is not self-supporting. When the value of the province’s equity is
written down, most likely to zero, we need to know how this will affect our
borrowing cost and our access to financial markets.
The
Muskrat Falls Inquiry is faced with a daunting task in the light of the
government’s failure to provide effective oversight over the project. Nalcor
had a responsibility to provide full disclosure to its Board and to its
shareholders, the people of the province and its government. Government too had
a responsibility to inform itself of the risks and to conduct an assessment of
the impact of the project and the unorthodox cost recovery scheme employed. The
failure to disclose brings with it enormous consequences for the present along with an
urgent need for greater transparency and improved governance in the future.
David
Vardy
A: Technical Appendix on Financing Costs
Each
day brings revelations from the Muskrat Falls Inquiry about how the project is
pillaging the provincial Treasury and impoverishing the province and its
people. Each day we hear of cost overruns. We hear each day about the disputes
with Astaldi, SNC Lavalin, General Electric and others and about massive
overruns and project delays. Many of the problems can be traced back to
underestimation of costs, whether through deliberate design or ineptness. Does
this understatement of costs extend to financing as well as construction costs?
We
hear little about project financing during construction even though these costs
are reported to be $2.6 billion or more than 20% of the $12.7 billion estimated
project cost. Reports refer instead to the $6.2 billion at sanction or the
$10.1 billion reported by Stan Marshall in 2017, without adding the cost of
financing during construction. These financing costs include interest during
construction (IDC) and allowance for funds used during construction (AFUDC). In
their September 2017 report the Muskrat Falls Oversight Committee (OC)
describes these costs. In their words IDC is “the interest that will accrue on
funds borrowed to construct the project”. AFUDC is “the return that will accrue
on equity invested to fund project construction”.
These
interest costs and return on equity are costs of construction and separate from
the servicing costs incurred after the start of commercial operations of the
assets. These capital servicing costs during operation represent the Lion’s
share of annual costs and this is normal in a hydroelectric project.
The
Oversight Committee tells us that IDC will cost $1.48 billion while AFUDC will
be $440 million, together comprising 72% of the $2.6 billion in financing
costs. No AFUDC costs are recorded for the power plant (MF) or the transmission
line between Muskrat Falls and Churchill Falls (LTA or Labrador Transmission
assets).
Generation
assets are financed under a different cost recovery scheme than the
transmission line from Muskrat Falls to St. John’s, known as the Labrador
Island Link (LIL). The LIL is financed under traditional “cost of service”
which requires that all costs be accounted for in the year they are incurred.
For the generation assets equity costs are recovered over a 50 year period. In
the words of the Oversight Committee: “The MF/LTA cost recovery is based on an
increasing price and increasing volume of electricity, and is therefore lower
in the early years and higher in the later years.”
Statement
of the construction cost of the project should not be conflated with cost
recovery as the Oversight Committee has done when they say: “Within that cost
recovery an 8.4% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on equity invested is generated
over the term of the power purchase agreement with NLH, but AFUDC does not
accrue.” Nalcor and the Oversight Committee assume that the opportunity cost of
the $3.2 billion invested by the province in generation assets is zero in their
calculation of project capital cost. This $3.2 billion represents two thirds of
the project’s total equity of $4.8 billion. If 100% of the project were
financed by equity and if “AFUDC does not accrue” then would it be accurate to
say that financing costs were zero?
The
Oversight Committee has accepted $440 million as a measure of the AFUDC based
on the $1.7 billion equity invested in LIL assets. Using this base of $440
million it is possible to infer what the AFUDC might be on the generation
assets, based on two known factors. The first is that the direct capital costs
of the LIL are 72% higher than corresponding generation costs. The second is
that the minimum equity requirement for generation is 35% compared with 25% for
the LIL, or 40% higher. If we take $440 million and multiply it by 1.72 and
1.40 we get $1,059.
My
conclusion is that the financing costs during construction are understated by
as much as a billion dollars. This would make the financing costs $3.6 billion
and raise the capital cost of the project to $13.7 billion.
The
byzantine cost recovery scheme makes it difficult for the public to understand
the full cost of this project and the impact it will have on ratepayers and
taxpayers. The stated purpose was to avoid rate shock in the early years before
the vaunted surge in demand takes place. The hybrid system should not be used
to understate the full cost of the project.
David
Vardy
But who can trust Vardy's number, when the William's has asserted he was past his best before date? Yet no one challenges his figures, which seems very logical and piles on the endless number of silly schemes used by Nalcor with finance, economics and engineering to deceive both government officials and the public.
Imagine Cathy Bennett, a director of Nalcor and supporter of MFs, and who engaged high profile business people to support it, and then was our was our Minister of Finance, not understanding the complex schemes used. Astounding.
Winston Adams
See nothing wrong with MF/Nalcor plan…
Hear nothing wrong with with MF/Nalcor plan…
Speak of nothing wrong with MF/Nalcor plan…
Everyone must be in zombie mode from Ed Martin testimony this morning, as no comments on UG. For me, I dosed off once for 20 minutes and felt I never missed a thing, same sort of questions and same sort of rambling answers: just disagrees and restates his distorted version of events and impacts and lets Da Judge decide who is telling the truth.
Makes me wonder how we might be screwed out of benefits from offshore oil seeing Martin's involvement in that too.
WA
"…cost over runs were tightly held and not disclosed to nalcor's board or the government". Yes no doubt evidance given to that effect. But the givernment negligent in not demanding of the CEO that they wanted regular reports. Maybe goes back to the 2 former premiers that gave Eddie his marching orders, DW and CD, they relied on him totally and he need only report to the the premier's office directly. As for the BOD and fininance ministers. I see a difference in not knowing, learning and then reporting their errors. Either knowing or unknowing other financial ministers like Tom Marshall and Riss wiseman must have been there two early on among others reported nothing. At least CB corrected her ways when she became knowledgable, by resigning from the board and introducing the FFA to show that it overrides the nalcor fincincial act as pointed out by Mr. Vardy. A difference between those that bury their heads in the sand permanently or just temporary in a steep learning curve. Joe blow.
David…"The business case for this project was "weak" from the beginning." I think a more apt word might be dubious.
And I would say a more apt word would be delusional, and a purposely contrived delusion at that.
Or perhaps "illusion" would be more appropriate.
Off topic, but MA, I hear you have an interest in an old building at Bishop's Cove, the community where I own a cottage, a church and a graveyard where I count 28 bodies are buried.
The old building I hear rumours that you see some value in it and may restore it, but also that you may demolish it, as it is in bad shape. I hear it may have some heritage value, and if not gone too far and you restore it, I propose to make you a gift of about $30,000.00 if you restore it, to add value as Ed Martin would say. One caveat would be that Nalcor type project management not be used, least you end up with a boondoggle. If interested, get hold of me. Except for AJ, I have not much luck in any of my proposals in the past here, as to North Spur, solar energy for Nfld etc, so maybe I'll get lucky yet.
Winston Adams
WILLIAMS, Rosellan Williams – JM said her name a few times the other day ! Who is she ? Is she related to Danny ? I did hear that she had something to do with the FFAW as well ? something fishy here ?
Could be a Bay of Bulls Williams like Danny. Check out GROWLER, she may be an owner too.
Who is the big money behind Growler Energy ? Is it Williams or Cahill or Butler ? Is she the connection ?
The 1/50, 1/150/,1/500 issue as to transmission lines…..see Ed sees this as important needing clarification. He essentially repeated my comments on UG as to Collins questioning MacIssac.
Surely PENG2, being civil expertise will comment?
Winston
Agree not a lot of commentary on the inquiry or Mr.mVardys piece. But lots from the Charmer, so may be put to sleep as mentioned. Yes feeding the big gobs of coolaid to commission council etc. not sure how much they are taking in. But same brand they he served up to all nalcor people and govt when ever given the chance. Hope some write a few books on the inquiry, one could be written on the charmer alone. So much one could write today, but will keep it brief. Could also use the word the Great Mitigator, and exhibits confidence in Trumpian proportions even in the face of over a 13B$ boondoggle as Mr. Vardy points out. So why worry about was it 6.2, or 6.5, 6.99, 7.5, or 10.2, the fact is all these numbers have doubled. When talking about a 300$ contingency, he said it was hundreds of per cent more than that. He quoted the figure 28B$ in contingencies available to cover muskrat cost. Dividens galore, 8.5 percent and more, excess power sales and other billions to be made at the time. Then does not agree there was funds to complete muskrat at any cost but signs a loan guarantee that he has to complete. NO VALUE ADDED by EY audit he says. No value to whom. To himself?? True because he had all the numbers but refused to share them with anyone including EY. EY was brought in by govt, Moullay and Paul Davis, as premier, because they could get no info from him. Like the investigated saying when you bring in the cops to investigate no value added. That's what crooks always say. Then he makes comparisons with his great work in the oil industry. Compares what he did at Hibernia. But fails to say, that was all big oil money, Exxon-Mobile, chevron, etc. We put not a red cent into that, the Feds took an equity stake of 8 percent, but muskrat rate payers and taxpayers are into this to the tune of 12-15 billion over 50 years. Does he not understand the difference, and wants to charm others into believing the same thing. Get real, and stop dreaming in technicolor. What are farce. I blame those who gave him his marching orders, but after that most of the blame lies with him, and don't be fooled by his trickory, coolaid and sickening charm. Joe blow.
Joe it would be much easier to read if yo hit the enter key now and again like this.
It makes your thoughts easier to read.
Well said Joe. And I agree that he was given his marching orders — and the rest of the crap was manufactured to give the appearance of a business case — island demand, oil prices, 57 year escalating supply pricing, so-called options analyses, so-called least-cost options, manipulated CPW process, a non existent water management agreement, 18,000 bbls of oil burning a day at Holyrood (repeated several times at the inquiry but not challenged), access to Upper Churchill power in 2041 not viable, etc. etc. etc…… all contrived .
Someone mentioned Valmanis, could add O. Vardy, as the worst examples of perfection.,is there not a lawyer among yo that can give this guy a trashing, and a public flogging. Joe blow. All in your hands.
Perhaps more appropriate to the present debate would be to compare Danny Williams and Ed Martin to Joey Smallwood and John C. Doyle in the context of the Anglo-Saxon/Maritime route, 1960's vs 2010's. The tale of two boondoggles and four villains(5 if you count KD). Even short term history(50 years) repeats itself in NL, go figure.
OL Vardy, in the 40's, made the rounds of outports, (Commission of Gov. Bizness). While visiting in Green's Hr. he would come to Supper, and entertain us by standing on his head, while we clapped with glee. Wayne Johnson, could write a novel about this fellow, who sadly died in exile, in Panama, never to reveal some of the Smallwood goings on.
O.L.Vardy never got to Panama. He was detained in Florida on the way there and fleeced by American lawyers while fighting extradition back to NL to face fraud and corruption charges. He died in Florida as far as we know.
I wonder if our David can stand on his head? He certainly can't say fraud with a mouthful of it!
Martin a bit of Houdini in his ability to do magic with numbers, to juggle this and that and come up with what ever he see fits the purpose for financial close, and too that applies right back to "Do we need the power?"
2 + 2 can equal 5 , or what ever.
Winston
Quote of the day; "we would never change numbers, just to get there", honest Ed. When Ralph was questioning him on the changes in the numbers just before fincincial close. One set of numbers posted in the doghouse for Canada, don't allow NL to see, a couple days later same final numbers posted, shifting the exact amounts from one area of product cost to contingency with the exact same 6.5 at fincincial close. It was so obvious what Mr. Ralph was saying. And that's how wheezles escape, through the obvious. Joe blow.
I think the Inquiry may have suddenly taken an interesting turn?
Dwight Ball’s lawyer appears to be laying the groundwork for Ball to state that Martin did not do as he was requested?
This could get interesting ……
Everyone knows that is why Big Ed was paid off by Dwight ! So Ed takes the fall !!!!! Nothing new here – no new turn !
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-martin-disclosure-1.5174629
Martin felt that the NL government was looking for 'decision grade information' and not the truth!!??
As I understood it at the time was Eddie gave ball et all an ultimatum. I want unfettered access to do as I always did in negotiations decisions and your full support as from the previous government otherwise I am resigning. Ball baulked and Eddie resigned. But he was saved by the BOD, who said we can dismiss you without cause, and then you are entitled under the law to get whatever is in your contract, which included severance, pension, etc. But maybe it will become clearer in the next few days, or maybe two versions, and we may still not know how it went down. Joe blow.
Ed Martin went before the media microphones in the morning and resigned but met with his board and they spent the rest of the day crafting a way to pay him the ransom cheque before they themselves bolted for the door that very day, isn't that the way it actually happened? Perhaps Ball can shed more light on it in July when he testifies at the inquiry.
Anon@11:19
Wanna bet he won't even be asked?
Wayne you are a cynic after my own heart!
Seems Ed showed a moment of confusion/ memory problem, but recovered to continue his BS. He stalled on wheter Harrington told him there was slim chance to achieve success with P5-P10 facing them. Another issue raised by Budden Ed was was an absolute falsehood. He says he resisted EY but them hedged to say it was his job to resist or push back. He only wanted anything that gives value to his tunnel vison, is EY finds serious fault, that does can add value, obviously.
As AJ said they created a Frankenstein, and Ed Martin the head of that monster.
Ed keeps saying the ratepayer was always the main concern. From the get go it was aiming for shock rate power rate increases, even at 6.2 billion.
Winston
Listened to the first few minute, couldn't take much more after that. But started with the BOD and among other terms he used to describe them as inquisitive and in some cases a stellar performance. Was just thinking if they had put me on the board, I would have been very inquisitive too, because I don't know much, so would have lots of question and queries. But can assure anyone, I would never have swallowed that we needed the power and it was the least cost option, and pools of money in excess sales for gravy. He would have to show me a lot of pictures and made the gravy hot along with the red meat to even consider changing my way of thinking. Guess my time on the board would have been short lived, guess that's why you have to be a political hack. Joe blow.
Is it coincidence that PENG2 is silent while Ed continues to grandstand?
I suggest that PENG2's contract with Nalcor/Fortis oo others, may have been terminated. Recall that months ago I suggested that PENG2 was being paid to comment and try to influence opinion on this blog. He never denied that, though it was raised several times. If his contract was terminated, why now? I think I know why. But maybe he is just into recess, we'll see soon.
PF
I have noticed that as well?
The biggest revelation for today so far?
Ed Martin wishes he had taken notes!!!!!
I would think this was the understatement of the year!
After all these years working for NALCOR and being paid millions of dollars, what a novel idea!
Wow!
It is One thing to take to notes, another to retain and secure them, as we see with Julia and Bown, and whether a possible crime to investigate when notes go missing, which this Inquiry sees as no big deal, just a footnote maybe?
What about audio recording or video recording important meetings? This 30 Million Inquiry being video/audio recorded and public, yet a project exceeding 6 billion there was no need to have a good record, not even notes for important meetings ? Are we in the dark ages here? Paper has been around a very long time, and in my life, we progressed from the ink bottle and fountain pen to ball point pens, to phones that record……..so Martin now hints that notes by him may have been useful! What a joke. Seems all what to stay under the cone of silence, so this a Maxwell Smart skit. Maybe the Commissioner will recommend shoe phones for the future……..but even those may get detected, by the metal detectors, even if one tries to attend this Inquiry in person? Openness and transparency is foreign to Nalcor, our government and our justice system. Is it not Nalcor legal counsel that advises Nalcor to avoid taking notes and recording, for plausible deniability purposes, as PENG2 has alluded to at times.
Winston Adams
"I wish I had taken notes" should be chiseled on Honest Ed's headstone!
Lol, what can one say. Will just comment where it ended. The bottom line is this was a 10B$ project right from the beginning, no matter who built it. So why didn't they come out at the DGNs and tell us, we all know the answer to that one. It would have been cancelled immediately, the people just would not accept it. So they decide to weave a web of deceit, by low balling the numbers, hold back on the numbers as long as possible, realease them gradually, like pulling teeth, and then maybe the public would accept it, or had no other choice. So that was the plan right from the beginning. DECEPTION . But had to build the energy wharehouse. And there was money to be made, and can't wait to get into the gravy of excess sales. So he hung onto the numbers, which frustrated everyone because the numbers were getting out through leaks, like small town he mentioned . But he wanted to be the designer, the builder, the investigator, the judge, the jury and the executioner. And now in the inquiry trying to justify all of that to the commissioner and the public. Joe blow
Hoops should add two more chores to his responsibilities, not to mention off shore oil, bull arm etc. He was also tho owner, and ambassador to Itality, or at least the point of contact for the Italian ambass adore to pass the word along via mr. Bown that he might be visiting and heads up to ball et al. When it came to numbers, it had to be a solid number before releasing it. You jumped on it, stomped on it, slept on it , preserved it and after withstanding the test of time, then and only then could it be released. But when asked about back up power if lil went down, then he just threw 5 balls up in the air, not one of them had any certainty of even being available, but very confident we would have more power than we needed. No blackouts. One of the balls he threw in the air was the third line to the Avalon, but neglected to say two things, 1) he cancelled that line way back in 2004-5 because the emphasis shifted to muskrat, and if that line had gone in then it may have prevented the NL blackout of 2012-3. 2) that line only goes to the western Avalon, where as the power is need on the eastern Avalon. He referenced a study that said The LIL line was so robust, that if we were hit by an ice storm, everything else would be in matchsticks and LIL would be still standing. Does he not realize over 1100 Kms you can have many different weather types. You can have an ice storm in Labrador, or the northern peninsula, and all rain on the Avalon , or visa versa, ice storm on the Avalon and heavy snow on the northern penesula or Labrador or any combination of that. So you just can't predict that number, so not solid. So he is not constant as he pretends to be but all over the place when it suits his purpose. Joe blow.
http://vocm.com/news/martin-denies-evidence-he-refused-to-accept-snc-lavelin-report/
What is it about this guy Martin that information he didn't want had so much trouble finding his attention. Willful blindness is it, an SNC-Lavalin former CEO was recently charged in a Quebec court of this offence. Also what does it say about former premiers who hired him, gave him the sweetheart deal, and cheered him on while we the people were being duped and prepared for future hardship with electricity costs and/or taxes to pay for the big boondoggle.
One government witness has already said at the inquiry that Nalcor was fiefdom onto itself, like a runaway train and a classic case of the tail wagging the dog, the dog being the government of NL.
What EM is confirming in terms of gravy or rate of return on equity of 8.4 per cent is exactly the arguement Mr. Vardy is making in this post. He says if the sales of power are not achieved then there is not enough cash coming in to pay the operating cost, and much less get dividend of 8.5 percent. EM says it is a good project too and an asset for the province and is worth more now than during the building time. He says we could sell it and get more than we paid for it and others agree with him. Well we want the correct answer from someone, and guess the government is the right one to get the answer from. If Eddie is right, then I say sell her. We have equity in it to the tune of 4 billion. Half a billion in this years budget. If it is equity then it is mostly borrowed money. And then another 8 billion borrowed from the FLG. And he says no pressure from the bond agencies, they love us. So sell right now for 12B$ plus interest charges during construction. If Eddie and friends wants to buy her, I say …SOLD. Cash on the barrel head. So almost 15B$ to put in the government account. I said that years ago, sell her to the Feds and NS. And just charge them for the power lines running across our lands. So me and Eddie are on the same wavelength. But seems no sold sign on her yet… Just a little difficulty right now in finding a buyer says Joe blow.
Good to see your good points AJ, as everyone else…. PENG2, Bruno, MA, etc are all dumbfounded maybe by Ed's performance today, as I too am too shaken by this spectacle to say much, and maybe by tomorrow I will have stabilised to say more, but my memory banks are much inferior to Ed Martins. His investment banks too are very large, as he told Learmount he is retired and spends most of his time to look after his investments. I think he worries not about his power bill.
Winston
" The stated purpose was to avoid rate shock in the early years before the vaulted surge in demand takes place. The hybrid system should not be used to understate the full cost of the project."
David how can you understate the impact of this MF fraud on the people of NL? Always on the sunny side David?? You should append The Monty Python "Always look on the bright side of life"
Cheer up, Brian. You know what they say.
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad.
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you're chewing on life's gristle,
Don't grumble, give a whistle!
And this'll help things turn out for the best
And
Always look on the bright side of life!
Always look on the bright side of life
If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten!
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing,
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps,
Just purse your lips and whistle — that's the thing!
And always look on the bright side of life
Come on!
Always look on the bright side of life
For life is quite absurd,
And death's the final word.
You must always face the curtain with a bow!
Forget about your sin — give the audience a grin,
Enjoy it, it's the last chance anyhow!
So always look on the bright side of death!
Just before you draw your terminal breath.
Life's a piece of shit,
When you look at it.
Life's a laugh and death's a joke, it's true,
You'll see it's all a show,
Keep 'em laughing as you go.
Just remember that the last laugh is on you!
And always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the bright side of life
Come on guys, cheer up
Always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the bright side of life
Worse things happen at sea you know
Always look on the bright side of life
I mean, what have you got to lose?
you know, you come from nothing
you're going back to nothing
what have you lost? Nothing!
Always look on the bright side of life
Songwriters: Eric Idle
You should apply for a new member of the troop!
David don't ever place blame on the author of this disgrace. Just remember;
you know, you come from nothing
you're going back to nothing
what have you lost? Nothing!
Always look on the bright side of life
And it has long been my view that the cost estimates were purposely, and from the beginning understated (and the demand and oil price/CPW difference overstated) so as to achieve public, house of assembly, opposition party, and cabinet/government approval/sanction.
Then the real costs would be increased incrementally — in digestible chunks, so as to not stir public opinion (just like turning up the water temperature on a frog slowly so that it won't notice what is happening to it).
Nothing unintentional about this, and therefore these so-called cost overages/overruns caan only be characterized as 'overruns' when comparing them to the original 'publicly advertised' cost estimates.
If the need, costs and risks had been properly assessed in the beginning, the public would have known back in 2011 that these were overstated, understated and unassessed respectively — consistent with my comment to the CBC in early 2011 that "we don't need it, can't afford it, and it's too high as risk" .
It amazes me Maurice that at this point those involved still can't admit that 5.6 was the political number that was sold to the public. Ed well knew to lie (his refusal to inform of a 300 million overrun is a case in point) to keep the political number regardless the truth.
MA: you were correct on those 3 points, but as mentioned before , you missed "it's won't be reliable power"
Yesterday Ed referred to ta Teshmont report of 2016 and said reliability will be an order of magnitude better or close to that. Can PENG2 reference if that is filed with the Inquiry and the exhibit number?
1. Our standard long met was 2.8 hrs per year of power outage.
2. An order of magnitude better implies o.28 hrs of power outage, I think.
3. Bruno suggests a pipe dream of 1 hr of outage if we use all wind and batteries, but batteries are very expensive( but a typical Bruno battery of 100 MWh gives only 10 minutes of power to the Avalon winter load,or 1000 MWh 100 minutes meaning if wind is low, then we can go to 6 hrs or more of no power….so much expenditure and worse reliability.
4.At present on monopole it is achieving about 100 hrs of power trip duration, so several orders of worse reliability. What imaginary world does Martin dwell to expect MFs to deliver reliability to 30 minute outage per year as compared to our island hydro/Hoolyrood thermal of 2.8 hrs? Our power act requires power to be lowest cost consistent with reliability. Both of these requirements have been violated. The Inquiry has all but ignored reliability, MacIssac cliams 99% power availability which is about 100 hrs off, and Martin predicts just 30 minutes off, a big gap to close by this fall's heating season.
After 6 years only in recent months is reliability being questioned. Unreliable power is near useless, and also a risk to destabilise NS grid and the NA grid.
Winston
Winston you are little better than Ed Martin when you misrepresent the truth.
You asked how often My power went down here in CB. I answered a half hour, not suspecting you were trying to trap me. I did not say wind would provide the same reliability.
Batteries backing up wind would be orders of magnitude cheaper than MF! They provide savings load balancing. Please acknowledge that. For now they will need backup (MF or Holyrood for the handful of hours needed. With the cost dropping steadily over time they become cheaper.
Were you referring to MF being useless with its unreliability? You are becoming a visionary Winston!!
WA @ 14:57:
Teshmont is filed with the PUB,
Also, you asked if a 'built-to with stand return period' is an input or output—it can be either depending on how you do the design.
WINSTON?
I make no claim for truth Bruno, except state and show where I am wrong or made an error. You have claimed absolute truth telling, a big joke. And too you ask if Vardy can stand on his head, maybe he can, but is busy taking notes at the Inquiry and just recently explained an hidden 1 billion cost, of course you saw that too?
I think the UG record shows you claimed wind and batteries can give 1 hr per year power loss for Nfld, not 30 minutes as you now say about Cape Breton. And I doubt Cape Breton has such good reliability of their grid.
Also you stated that batteries to support MFs is not woth spending 1 dollar on…….maybe now now withdraw that?
No, I am not trying to trap you, but your own statements, as to for using native coal , is your statements that you then try to wiggle out of, so no need for anyone to try and trap you, your mouth and keyboard is your trap. I too can make errors off the cuff on a blog, and if so, I ask other s point them out.
As to visionary for MFs unreliability, many have suggested it for various reasons, : ice bergs destroying cables, N Spur failure , towers collapse etc. , my take if from my experience with 230KW grid, operations protection and controls, as we now see with software, and integration ……….maybe you warned on that pre sanction? Maybe the "buggy" system will get debugged, I do not wish a useless system. I advocate for electricification as Sypanse suggests, if MFs works, but I see significant risk, that should have been mitigated presanction by proper engineering studies on integration.
You say batteries backing up wind would be orders of magnitude chaeper than MFs. If 13 billion one order of magnitude cheaper is 1.3 billion, 2 orders is 130 million, is that correct?
MHI costed wind and batteries as a replacememt for Holyrood at 17 billion, ? Not sure. So you propose to do it for 130 million? Sounds Martin like as to playing with numbers. Maybe my arithmetic here is wrong, so correct me if so.
Anon@ 12;57…… I wondered if that was the one linked by UG a while back…….I skimmed it and will check it further. Do they claim MFs reliability as Ed Martin says, if you know?
Winston
17 billion is ridiculous! An order of magnitude is 1.3 Billion Winston. Are you lost without your slide rule?
You said ORDERS of magnitude cheaper than MFs. Orders is plural so at least 2, so I stated one order is 1.3 billion vs 17 billion based on MHI of 2012 if that was correct what they said as to 17.
But as you said orders, you suggest 0.13 billion, 130 million compared to 13 B Mfs, not 1.3 B
Now you just chop the the letter S off the word orders you used? One could interpret orders to be 3, 4 or 5, but not less than two orders. You deny plain English ? You are full of tricks Bruno.
So yes 17 billion was ridiculous because they the amount of wind and batteries was ridiculous, and your figures are likewise ridiculous. They are improved some if you you say you erred with the word orders and meant order. Ed Martin said Order or reliability better, not orders, and even he is ridiculous with that statement, but still ridiculous with the same amount of wind and batteries. Maybe you have chopped that volume and size down too?
Winston
Winston you have entered Trumplandia and you think that you can make up your reality as you go along. I see you miss your troll PENGzero but I won't play make believe with you.
When you have no facts, and caught red handed in your deceit, you attack the person, as usual.
If you make a mistake by saying orders of magnitude but meant order, it is a large difference, but you are too small a man to admit even an error. Perhaps it was not an error, and thought no one would notice, as Ed Martin does routinely. You are world class, Nalcor style, Bruno. But you add humour. I picture Vardy standing on his head while taking notes.
Winston
Bruno, yes I miss PENG2, as he makes more sense than you, and technically he is very strong, but has biases like all of us. But he is not MY troll, and I disagree with him often, respectively as I can…….as the UG record shows. Sometimes I agree with you, but you can't accept an opposing view. You invite disrespect, or I can let you deceive, which you do. You disagree with yourself in not owning your own words.
Winston
By the way "orders of magnitude" may mean one order, two orders, etc.
Ed Martin said he should have documented more around the discussions of Muskrat Falls.In fact,he said.he was good at documenting things.He did document things like the rationale for and the benefits of the project(things that mattered in his promotion of and his defence of the project).He just didn't document document things that mattered to the government and the ratepayers,trivial things like increasing costs,poor production,and schedule problems, etc.Although in his defence he did say that the ratepayer was always top of mind.Really?
Put Martin's good training to good community use; He is on public purse pogie. Have him attend a school on journalism. Get into Social science. Give him a Blog and radio show. Read some Jane Jacobs. Join the neighbourhood garden club. As some would say, let your "investments" balance themselves
Observe all the community good the recently departed Carl Mallam Stevenson gave in his very productive life. A true humanist. A rich blend of science and the arts. A model for the imbedded contractors all over, to give back to the communities they lived and worked in.
Yes but don't give them any access to public money's Remember what Ray Guy said about arming the RNC:By all means give them guns but for God's sake don't give them bullets.
My readers digest version of the Muskrat Falls Inquiry.
Accountability:
1) The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador provided very little accountability for Nalcor (Ed Martin).
2) Nalcor (Ed Martin) completely abused this lack of accountability to suit his own “style” of project management.
3) As a result of this accountability issue we as a Province are now on the hook for a $13+ Billion Dollar debt.
It will soon be 14+, 15+ when the circular firing squad begins when they try to move towards commercial power!
Every thought is prefaced with IF THE DAMNED DAM holds.
Of all the testimony we have heard, the subject of why did they make the decision, and who approved that decision, to send our cheap island, reliable, paid for power to NS, and give us the unrealiable power????? I know in either case we the rate payers, and tax payers of the province are on the hook for the entire cost. But why should we get the double whammy, of pay, plus unrealiable power. The buggers, the traitors, the treasonist. Now I don't know about the technicalities of doing it that way, but I sure as hell understand the consequences. Now others may say, well we have to provide the power to NS should the LIL go down anyway. YES! Another act by the treasonist. So who is yet to be on the stand to question on that subject, or was that opportunity missed. I guess, Gillies. Joe blow.
I was hoping to smoke peng2 out with my last…lol
Many of the 'real' questions are outside the TOR Joe, and never meant to be addressed by this inquiry (and Leblanc, not unlike Nalcor, is prioritizing what is being described as the "aggressive schedule".
Right on. Joe, double whammy if double the cost with rates, and half or less the reliability,as NS gets our reliable island power, and triple whammy when Ed , the great negotiator. gave NS free our island hydro anchoring capacity to allow NS to develop wind, which they are doing big time, and detrimental to our developing wind. That not questioned at the Inquiry either. Perhaps someone can give us the link where that treasonist act was cemented, I don't think I dreamed it.
Winston
You may be right MA, but I view that decision as all part of the initial decision tied up with, did we need the power, how much and when, along with being the least cost option. Now as for the technicalities, now that may be another question. Right on Winston, when eddies was mentioning the gravy and power sales, and sending power from NS to NL in the event of the LIL going down, not once did he mention us developing wind, or NS either, just talking about Holyrood realibility and CTs.
Joe, towards the end, Ed was getting a bit frazzled,(or I was), as he had difficult saying Learmonth, and I believe once called Leblanc Justin, , meaning Justice instead of Commissioner, and his eyes were shutting and opening about twice per second, 2 Hz say, about 4 times faster than Leanmonth's, indicating his stress level at trying to keep his wacky story straight. The day before he suggested Learmonth was getting frustrated, which he was not, so Ed was just full of tricks.
He said Nalcor had assessed all all reasonable options,and factors and managed to mention the word elesticity, but stumbled on CDM, could not say the word, but Leblanc instantly asked if he meant CDM, and he said yes. Did I hear correctly….that he could not even say the word CDM, meaning Conservation and Demand Management. Shows how much time or how serious Nalcor dived into that,and Ed's wanting to avoid the subject on the stand, yet it was their duty to do a deep dive I suggest, as NS was doing so much starting in 2008 . PENG2 may say other wise. And as you say , on the stand, wind was also ignored, ( and I have previously mentioned Hatch's whitewash report.
As the Power Act required lowest cost power, how can the TOF or Leblanc interpretation permit Nalcor to ignore these things at this inquiry? Reasonable evaluation as to best practices applies, and Leblanc should hold them to show they followed those standards, I suggest.
The Power Act implied that efficiency is only a duty as to supply to the house meter, not customer efficiency. Customer efficiency is important to grid and power system efficiency. Yet this was ignored, but Synapse now dives into this, as Nalcor should have.
Winston
Father's Day resulted in a gift : a book I expressed interest in: We All Expected To Die, by Anne Budgell.
The cover show a small Inuit child in the foreground, behind her what look looks like the Viking sod covered dwelling a thousand years ago, or maybe a large root cellar, but actually an Inuit dwelling about the year 1900,and such dwelling existed much later than that, also some Moravian Missionary buildings and their supply ship the Harmony in the background, the ship that brought the Spanish Flu to northern Labrador.At Okak, of 273 there, 207 died. At Hebron, of 222, 140 died. Apparently the highest percentage of deaths in the world from flu. If the same percentage occurred in Nfld , 175,000 of the 250,000 would have died,or nearly 6 million of the just over 8 million in Canada in 1918.
Reports of the disaster there were ignored in St John's with John Crosbie, then Minister in the government, reported to have said "Let them die",as reports were not certain and the cost of sending aid too high. The Governor reported to London maybe there were 3 or 4 deaths in Labrador.
I suspect that not one in 500 people in Nfld today even know of the vast area of Labrador controlled by the German based Christian Moravian Church since the 1770s.
Shocking events of dogs starving and breaking in and eating dozens of the human corpses. 100 bodies sunk into a hole cut in the ice, being unable to dig graves. Houses burned due to partial human remains left by the dogs. Wholesale shooting of dogs to save the few remaining Inuit.
I am struck by how little progress has been made for services in coastal Labrador even today, yet we witness the waste of 13 billion in the last 6 years for MFs Little has changed, and now we wonder if the attitude of the safety of the North Spur will be "Let em Die"? Who is to give the assurance of dam safety and the "good to go" to flood the reservoir?
Winston Adams
On Saturday I was tormented by the constant radio ads by the local Oil and gas association: Bill 69 does not allow us to control our future for offshore oil, (as too Quebec caused us to build the boondoggle, did they?).
These ads on the morning VOCM Irish songs and nitetime Cabin party. Sickening.
The day before the Pope lectured CEOs of BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, ConocoPhilips, Chevron and contractors BlackROck and Hermes at a 2 day meeting. In previous speeches the Pope has slammed: "the continued search for new fossil fuel reserves, and that fossil fuels should remain underground. He now said the effects will be catastrophic is we cross the 1.5 C threshold, and urged that young people and business to take a leading role.
BP said the world needs to take urgent action….that all need to come together. Yet BP's profits last year was at a 5 year high as output of oil and gas soared.
Yesterday too it was reported that BP reported that carbon emissions rose at the fastest rate in almost a decade last year.
Despite a large reduction of coal use in the UK, worldwide coal use has not declined.
For power generation coal is 38%, non fossil fuel 36 % and the rest by oil and gas. This is exactly where it stood in 1998, despite wind and solar gaining 14.5 % last year.
Moral: we are gaining nothing and losing as emissions keep climbing. Take note Bruno. What facts boost your zeal that we are winning?
A new coal project just approved in Australia for India, will emit 700 million tons of carbon dioxide every year for more than 50 years.
Did someone say we have 11 years to get serious, or too late?
Ches Crosbie and Ball and maybe Coffin are aligned to hasten our path to destruction, if you believe the science. And Nflders are are all in, just like for Muskrat.
But too…. playing those ads during the best music of theweek……damn you VOCM! Why spoil a few hours of music pleasure.
Winston Adams
Yes Winston, heard those ads by NOIA, I think the very own voice it sounds like Charlene Johnson. She was a big part of the boondoggle. She was minister of fininance from January to September 2014. Got our while the going was good. Just before things blew up . Back now as head of NOIA, and turns your stomach, as she repeats "our" our oil etc. A dozen times, the same kind of jiberish they used to convince everyone that muskrat was the best thing since sliced bread. Yes in the ads she is saying watch out for big bad Ottawa, they are going to take our offshore. Now I don't agree will bill 69, is it, before parliament right now. I think it should be left with the CNLOPB, as my common scense tells me, but not that bs of OURS! MINE OURS! OURS, says Joe blow.
Joe the CNLOPB does not have the capacity to do decent EA. They also have a dual mandate, to regulate and promote. The CNLOPB has never seen a well they did not love.
When are we going to cut back and save the planet Joe? Screw our kids, is that it??
Agree with you on that Bruno. You should post more on that topic. I see A Coffin is not aligned with Crosbie and Ball on that. Crosbie on TV seems seriously angry……….a quality I thought he lacked, as he promoted himself as a guy with a sense of humour…….. but that was fake it seems.
Indeed if a blowout like in the Gulf by BP, even there they blamed various parties, where is the expertise at CNLOPB on such dangers to the environment…….more of Nalcor like with the Spur etc.
Coffin puts the environment first…..good to see her show some leadership.
Winston
Good point Bruno, I can't disagree with you. But my take on bill 69 is the Feds want to share power or control the entire offshore oil and more importantly change what was gained 4 decades ago, so that we will not be the primirary benificiers of the offshore. Ottawa destroyed the fisheries, through mismanagement, when it was hand d over to them lock stock and barrel, and can't trust them with other aspects of the offshore. And as a province that is up to its Yang-yang in debt, oil is the only thing that may keep us from total collapse. So we have to fight for our very survival as a province before we fight to save the human species. Now you may turn it around the other way. But like the guy that was asked if he believed in life here after and God, so he said yes,…why take the chance. Now a number of interpretations there. And we have clean oil…lol. Joe blow. Might also add I don't agree with drilling in deep water like the Flemish pass, I don't think we have the technology to do it safely.
The feds are making a half arsed attempt at reducing emissions with a national plan. It is inadequate by at least half to meet Kyoto promises by our government. To do that they need to muscle producing provinces that don't give a shit about a future, they bow down to golden idols. Will greed or sanity rule?
I was fighting Ottawa trying to save the fishery but an asshole of a federal minister named Crosby would rather win one more election instead of following advice from scientists, Leslie Harris and environmentalists that the cod complex was near collapse.
Who would you blame Joe, Vic Young (aka FPI), that bastard Crosby from Ottawa, or the bloody seal scapegoats???
Don't get me going on that one Bruno…but all,of the above. Seals should be harvested the same as any mammal, and used as food, pelt etc. I like seal, I get mine at the waterfront every year, not only flippers, but a couple carcouse.one of the best foods left on the planet. It's wild, and not pumped full of chemicals. I like salmon too, wild , but farmed, well with the chemicals guess you should eat it only occasional. So will leave at at that for now. Joe blow. Nope nature should not be out of balance, so part of mans job is to help keep it in balance.
Bruno, as to your trying to save the fishery…..and loss of cod and capelin: over fishing yes,which was ignored, but I suggest the greatest factor happening at the same time was environmental with water temperature change, the ocean fed from the Labrador current got colder , detrimental then for cod and capelin (food for cod), and was good then for crab and scrimp.
That based on my 10 years of ocean temperature monitoring and some research as to historical info for temperatures and capelin.
Would you dispute my statement or agree in whole or part?
Winston
In whole! It is ridiculous. That system survived temperature swings in the past (see 1400 to 1600). Don't look for weak excuses, apply Occam's Razor and conclude, human greed employing draggers fishing on spawning aggregations and fishing capelin, the cornerstone species. Capelin are still being fished hindering recovery, not seals. Human greed knows no bounds.
I learned from Leslie Harris. He was a wise man who loved his culture that he knew was at risk for the reasons he outlined in his landmark report. We had been fishing at twice the target F0.1 since we extended jurisdiction. Whoops!
Winston Your temperature theory is not supported by the facts or wise Newfoundlanders.
Joe I did not say use them. it is good you eat the whole carcass.
I said don't make them the scapegoat, not don't harvest them responsibly.
Bruno, your wilful blindness shows no bounds.
And who are the wise Nflders monitoring temperatures as I did, near capelin spawning beaches for 10 years to coordinate with capelin rolling?
And where is your facts for ocean temperatures here in the 1400s and 1600s, was the Beothic or early Europeans monitoring sea temperatures, what is your source?
I connected with one fishery scientist here who was intrigued and saying the temperature correlation seems similar to research he did off Maine , I think , as to another species.
Are you not aware fish follow ocean temperature conditions, and other parts of the world the cod has moved north away from warmer water from global warming changes?
Are you aware that off NE Nfld the ocean temperature had very low temperatures below zero C for more than 100 miles east of the Avalon at times, record lows I think in the 1990s.
Are you aware that at the Logy Bay lab where they were pumping in sea water for many years they were not even monitoring the temperature?
That at the worse, cod were freezing to death in Trinity Bay, when few were left?
That Rose's book COD barely mentioned climate change and sea temperature, but more recently I think feels it is a bigger factor than previously thought?
That they predicted cod and capelin recovery in 2 or 3 years after the collapse, and now still not recovered after a quarter of a century!
That govn ignores climate change on our oceans generally and does little research, not much different from Nalcor world class studies, but their good research is often buried or ignored. Harper especially silenced ocean scientists.
That here now oil drilling and production is paramount and fish science ignored.
To your good points : Harris was wise. And all was over fished, especially capelin you and I agree, there you onlly repeated what I said " loss of cod and capelin, over fishing yes"
To your bad points: You are no Harris. You learn little, you have superficial knowledge it seems to me, and have tunnel vision and are wilfully blind, on most all subjects.
So what are the facts that is the basis of my theory that you dispute? Did you inquire as to the data I obtained? Facts is a foreign concept to you Bruno, first you go with insults. Can you stand on your head as you wonder about Dave Vardy? LOL
Did the cod and capelin come to our beaches here in the last ice age I wonder, when glaciers on the Avalon? Maybe they moved then too.
Have you personally done any fishery basic research? Doubt it.
Winston
Winston what evidence do you have that because the water MAY have been a bit colder in the decade you monitored that is why the cod vanished? Habitat destruction and dumping small fish had NOTHING to do with it! Harris was full of shit eh?
Not only is this a false correlation but it ignores the real issues. You fell for DFO propaganda that is self serving nonsense. The draggers in the FPI fleet cleaned out the cod that had been a reliable resource for centuries. You monitor water temp for a decade so that MUST be what happened eh Winston??? Bullshit!
So Winston the cod ran away, is that it?? The FPI fleet did not wipe them out? The habitat did not get turned into a marine desert by the dragger doors! Canada did not overfish by double since we took control to 200 miles! Leslie Harris was full of shit! John Crosby is a hero!
Sure Winston, I have some ocean frontage in Florida you may be interested in!
Bruno, add to FPI these countries, Russians, Spanish, Polish, Portuguese, French, Norway, Flemish, Germans, Japan, and a few others that escapes me now, even the Cubans got in on it, but too late, massive ships. How do I know?? Saw it with my own eyes, in the 60, and seventies, from as far north as one could get, to the Flemish cap to the Scotian shelf, and all points in between. Joe blow.
Before we took control to 200 miles the world fleet were the problem. After we took control did you see the trail of dead fish dumped by the FPI fleet for miles behind the boats after we took conrol?
There were still fish but fewer when we took control. We wiped them out (or chased them away if you believe Winston)!
Well Canada took control of 200 mile economic zone in January 1977, but prior to that there was ICNAF, Canada and mainly European countries so called managed the Grand Banks and east coast areas. Yes saw a few fish dumped… Could be talking a few tons as compared to millions of tons, so that might be called a drop in the bucket. Sometime can tell you what the Russians caught in Caplin, an unregulated species. Joe blow. But the foreigners caught fish after that inside the zone as well as outside, and more than FPI or national sea etc.
Joe, Only after Canada gave them permits to fish (inside 200 miles). Outside 200 on the nose and tail of the Banks was (and still is) a free for all. I protested at NAFO about that in 1992 and demanded a seat at the table for ENGO's.
The dumping accelerated as the fish dwindled. For a 14,000 lb haul 5 were legal and went into the hold for example, the rest dumped dead overboard. WE did that. Stopping the denial is the first step to finding solutions!
Yes, you can have a permit or license to fish 50 tons inside but a foreign vessel may double that amount. Enforcement is not like salmon on a river as you know. Yes , now that's what you call good management. 5 thousand in the hold and 9, 000 dumped back. There are so many angles that one could discuss and would not even be scratching the surface of what went on. But, as I said I will give you my story on the Caplin, an unregulated species for decades and we are not talking about the few on the beach that come ashore. Average Joe.
Bruno, you are as silly as a sock.
What evidence do you have you ask as to water temperature, and without knowing, you say it is false correlation. You are a jewel.
You say over fishing and marine habitation destruction has nothing to do with it, despite my agreement those were important factors. You imply that I imply that Harris was full of shit……yet I said he was a wise man.
What twists you put on conversations! Are you naturally of evil intent to so twist ?
The cod ran away you say in ridicule, but ones confided to deep water in Trinity Bay couldn't run, and many floated dead to the surface from the cold water….well known here. Few were left then, but poaching going on by locals I was told.
And cold water temperature MUST be what happened you ridicule and twist. I suggested it was a factor and still is , and also a significant factor I suggest, but too there are other factors I acknowledged. But you operate under wilful blindness or something similar, to say it is Bullshit. On what facts is it bullshit? Brunofacts, little different than a Brunofart.
As to your ocean frontage in Florida, that too is subject to erosion from ocean temperature rise there, and soon they will run away too, even Trumpie's property is not safe for long. And insurance there is high. So you better stay in CB, close to that native coal you like to promote for the poor folk you say, and too for power generation, as it is native!
Winston
Just a brief comment on the REAL lowest cost option, the isolated island grid, so called. Tons has been said about the interconnect option, bogus option, at the inquiry, and billions spent on doing it. But the isolated has received nary a comment or certainly no estimates or studies or concrete plans. And guess I am not the right one to do that as I don't have the necessary expertise. But think from what Winston said in rough estimates, we could do a small hydro for a billion or so, and no Astaldi required for that. Maybe not even a SNC, probably the technical expertise exist right here on the island, well maybe hire a few individuals from SNC or hatch, or whom ever. Add maybe 100 mgw of wind , conservation program and CDM which include heat pumps and Bungo, all the power we need now and into the future so , maybe a billion or so. So what is the REAL lowest cost option or lowest cost power again?????????????? Well you all know, except for the boondoggle crowd, maybe they will see the light some day says Joe blow.
So LeBlanc has his knickers in a knot.
"Commissioner Richard LeBlanc finds it hard to believe that a government seems to have little propensity or ability to retain such documents. Do not be surprised if he recommends a change in record-keeping practices in the public sector."
LeBlanc is swinging his rubber chicken: Here Come Da Judge! He MAY recommend better record keeping! Jesus Christ!!
The notes missing, Ed still an arrogant worm, denying accuntabity, 5.6 now 12.7 soon to be 15 billion us and LBlanc may request better record keeping??
Is there an honurable man left in NL politcs or judiciary??? Perhaps LeBlanc will soon be whisked away to the Senate and Crosby the senior can be handed the rubber chicken. That would guarantee justice!!