Post By Muskrat Falls Concerned Citizens Coalition
we applied for standing at the PUB hearing on rate mitigation we expected that
the Board would welcome a broader spectrum of views than other intervenors
could offer. We were surprised and disappointed to be turned down when the
Muskrat Falls Concerned Citizens’ Coalition (MFCCC) application was rejected.
The Board’s response of March 26, 2019 reads as follows:
participation would be of assistance, the Board acknowledges that some of the
members of the Coalition have experience and expertise that may be helpful in
relation to some of the issues to be addressed in this review. Nevertheless the
rate mitigation review involves a range of complex legal, financial and
accounting matters and, to ensure that the review proceeds efficiently and that
the identified issues are fully and thoroughly addressed, standing to
participate as a party will only be granted where the Board is satisfied that
there is a unique interest which is not already represented and that the requested
participation would be of assistance in the review. The Board is not satisfied
that the Coalition has a unique interest or that its participation as a party
would be of material assistance to the Board. The Board invites the Coalition
to provide its input by filing written submissions/comments and making a
presentation to the Board.”
MFCCC is not aware of any reason in law why we would be denied standing. We
represent a group of over 250 members. The Coalition has been granted standing
at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry, an Inquiry in which the Consumer Advocate has
also been granted standing. Why the PUB would take a different course is
did not support the Inquiry’s decision to grant intervenor status to the
Consumer Advocate though not due to any concern regarding the diligence of the
incumbent in that Office. Rather we take the view that since the government is
a party to the Inquiry it ought not be both an intervener and have the right to
appoint the representative of ratepayers, too. We take the view that the
Commissioner should have been asked to make the appointment independently of
were also disappointed to learn that the Board has held a technical conference
with no public notice . The PUB provided the public with no record of the
proceedings or access to the documents tabled. As a Coalition, we wrote the
Board to express our concern about the hosting of such exclusive conferences
and to voice the perspective that the reference hearing was given under s 5 of
the Electrical Power Control Act which calls for a public hearing, with the
emphasis on the word “public”. We noted that the Electrical Power Control Act
requires the Board to hold public hearings where a matter has been referred to
it by the Government. We asked the Board to advise where it gets its authority
to hold technical conferences in private.
The response indicated that the board has “broad authority” which we
understand. In other words the Board had the option of choosing a more public
approach but elected instead to exclude rather than include. We would have
expected the Board to take a more
discussions with colleagues who have appeared before the Utilities and Review
Board of Nova Scotia on the Maritime Link hearing we have learned of the UARB’s
more inclusive and transparent approach. People have been granted intervenor
status without representing a defined group of Nova Scotian consumers. They
were allowed to represent themselves without legal counsel. They received
access to all the documents. The MFCCC urges the PUB to emulate the approach
taken by the UARB.
our correspondence with the PUB we also expressed concern with the political
process employed in selecting the Consumer Advocate. The response we received
appointed representative for the interests of ratepayers in this review and has
represented these interests in other matters before this Board for many years.
The Board is satisfied that the Consumer Advocate has the mandate, experience
and responsibility to represent these interests fully and independently.”
the Nova Scotian model is instructive because it is the Board and not the
government which appoints their Consumer Advocate. Despite the presence of a
strong Consumer Advocate in Nova Scotia the UARB encourages consumer groups to
appear as intervenors. The people of that Province were well served by this
process during the UARB’s Review of the Maritime Link Application process. The
Coalition takes the view that the NL PUB has plenty to learn from them.
Greater, not less, inclusiveness and transparency will best serve the public
Penney, Chair, MFCCC
Maybe, just maybe, we have too many authorities and companies with their finger in the pie of our power system. I think, in NS they just have NSpower inc and the URAB to control power in NS. ( of course I stand to be corrected). Here we have NL Hydro, Npower, Nalcor, the PUB and government all chasing the same few electrons that we need to keep her going. So the pub sees the field as been too crowded so they want to restrict interveners as much as possible. In the maze here the pub is just a wet puppy to be patted on the head occasionally and told to be nice or be dismissed at the wink of an eye, which is what KD after they had referred a question to them, and told them what the answer should be. Andy said I need more info so KD said puck off. So here, govt. created a monster and gave it full control over all of us including its creator. So in the end it won't make much difference what the PUB comes up with, nalcor will control us and what they want to do with power and oil.
Sorry, average joe.
AJ @ 08:55:
Our system is a bit simpler than you say – we have 3 bodies affecting power regulation: NL Hydro(or Nalcor as they are the same corporation), NL Power and the PUB. NL Gov get involved politically and should in reality have no input – but that is a governance fail here. In my estimation governance and governmental interference is the biggest issue with our system – no difference in PUB operations and why MF was sanctioned in that respect.
Interesting thing with Emera/NSPower is that in 1992 they were privatized – right about when Clyde Wells suggested the same for NL Hydro and also for the same reasons, but we know how that turned out here.
Many diverse opinions…I guess. Well if NL hydro and Nalcor are one and the sane, then we have two nalcors. Nalcor senior that gave us the boondoggle, and nalcor junior, just formed and looking for a name, Naloil & Gas, is it. Govt has given nalcor senior billions, for equity in muskrat, Hebron, Hibernia South etc. And has brought the province to its financial knees, yet during the last quarterly report, nalcor turned a profit, of some $33 million, was it. It's enough to drive the average John Q. Public right around the bend, not to mention the average Joe. So in the up coming election, I am going to cast my vote for nalcor junior, or maybe for the Flemish Pass Party, and see where that will get us. Now put that in your pipe and smoke it.
I think Nalcor lists assets at 18.8 billion, but of that 13 billion is MFs. So looks good as a Ponzy scheme.
Compare that to the 1 trillion dollar fund from oil in Norway, who is now moving away from fossil fuel investments as too high risk.
We take out oil from a few holes offshore, and sink our gains into another sink hole at MFs, Danny's Legacy project. So we now need more holes on the offshore to keep feeding the sinkhole. Nalcor estimates maybe 50 billion barrel potential vs Saudi 200 billion proven. And the more oil we produce the less fish to be caught. We sacrifice our fish resource and much more. But as Balls says, if the world buys oil, it should be Nfld oil,and, as Bruno might say: our shit don't smell.
Nalcor assets climb each year, whether from our govn cash injections or borrowed money for MFs, it keeps adding to the asset value. Accounting is just marvelous, to show how successful Nalcor is, but the devil is in the details. I don't think HQ shivers when reading the AGM report of Nalcor. And we saw Sturge at the Inquiry, the CFO, afraid to challenge Ed Martin, but still CFO.
The array of outfits under Nalcor is astounding, and their many board of directors. Like if Scotia Bank is operating in say 20 countries, everyone of those countries branches is separate with their own board of directors, which is not the case. Liberty is not impressed.
My comment at 09:36 was directed at governance, and that related directly to the MFCC not being permitted as an intervener at the PUB. Considering the experience of the MFCCC, I cant understand the decision by the PUB – maybe we cant handle the truth?
So we all know the state today – 5 politicians confirmed to be running in the upcoming NL election voted for MF in 2011, and that's not accounting for a person who was a DM at the time. The count of 5 (or 6) also doesn't account for Dale K or Craig M who would likely have voted either way if the PCs accepted them in 2011.
A final note, 85% of the respondents to the VOCM question of the day claim the don't let funding announcements affect their vote.
Personally, I say a few bucks of asphalt could get a unanimously elected government. Governance is our issue in NL – maybe I will claim the QC bogey man and run as a late entry with my kids and their classmates.
Sad to say, but close to truth.
As you know Winston, I sometimes write with tongue in cheek, foot in mouth, or half cocked, and sometimes all of the above at once. But no matter what I do, it des not cost the treasury anything. But those buggers of which we speak, with their silly ideas and high flutten deck presentations, have caused the govt and us untold billions and still doing it. As for the 50 billion barrels of oil potential off shore, well it is just that potential compared to the Saudies 200 billion. Theirs are more or less guaranteed, as it takes mare pennies to suck from the ground compared to what it takes to extract from the seabed, especially outside the Grand Banks where the water depth is a few thousand meters. So they can still sell oil when the world price has fallen to 10 bucks or so, where as we and a lot of other producers are long gone out of business. No wonder the Norwigans are eyeing the future with pestism as their oil is in deep water too. As for less carbon oil, when I mentioned it before, I said if the facts show that for GB oil then better to produce than heavy carbon oil If economically. But I know when Hibernia first shipped oil into NY refineries, they loved it, it was sweet crude, less sulphur and carbons compared to the Middle East, Gulf, or Venezeula, so much easier to refine. Seems Terra Nova and White Rose are similar, sweet crude. Now as I understand it Hebron does have a higher level of carbons etc. So will not fetch the same price on the markets. (of course others may correct me) I have no idea what the carbon contents are in the deeper waters of the Flemish Pass, but suspect it is much more expensive to extract than in the shallow waters of the Grand Banks. As you know extracting oil from deep water in harsh environments at almost twice the distance offshore Is a different quintal of fish that from the sands of SA. (Hibernia GBS may serve as a mere refuelling station down the road.) Much more infulstructor required than what the Saudies require. Canada and the people, including world wide, make billions in providing this structor, as compared to the few measly dollars we get after big oil has taken their cut. Yes, so guess nalcor junior or senior in their accounting includes their equity investments in oil, power lines, dams and Bull Arm et al. Joe blow.
The sane thing to do is try to move to NS and rid yourself of this backward place.
You got that all wrong buddy, I ain't going anywhere. But think I suggested that to you some time ago, with all your complaining, but seems you refuse to go as well. Anyway I don't use the same words as you do, like sane and backward place. I am quite happy here actually, but I do, and always, and no matter where I was to express my freedom of speach, which of course you have every right to do as well. Cheers, Joe blow.
I find myself in the uncomfortable position of having to agree with PENG2. NL does indeed primarily have a governance problem.
When the MFCCC meekly accepts the premise of Da Judge limiting participation of even technical experts, later called in camera for their expert advice, accepts the "public advocate" as an impotent political operative, accepts the protracted timeframe to extend beyond the next election, you demonstrate both your naivete and political impotence.
When the PUB chooses to capitalize on MFCCC impotence and holds technical meetings in camera they can be assured that there will be no meaningful opposition. Your PUB should be renamed the Political Utilities Board and the MFCCC the Muskrat Falls Complicit Chump Coalition.
Rise Up, Rise Up, the time is long overdue.
Can't disagree with you Bruno. Like the new acronyms. And even these are good means of protest and let them know how the people best describe them . So I will from now forwards refer to the the Political Utilities Board, as the PUB, and sometimes MFCCC as the Complicit Chumps. Tks. Average Joe.
Bruno is back after only one day of silence,being into deep meditation,and finding the good backy to smoke. Sharpened his small sense of humour as to the meaning of PUB and MFCCC, and made me laugh.
Dissing , yes, but with some style.
If only Bruno stuck to his area of expertise, and avoided arithmetic, we might be pals.
Now… as to "Rise up, rise up" : UG said way back, there needs to be a revolution, but that he would not lead it.
I think of Hitler, his fisrt attempt to take power by force, a small band marching, but confronted and stopped by police. Hitler's side kick stood his ground, but was shot. Hilter, the bravest man in Germany, many thought, ran off, but was caught a day or so later. So Hilter changed plans, and as we know came to power by democratic means, voted in, and then instant dictatorship.
Bruno, from afar,in Cape Breton, in his hideout, by his wood stove, smoking sometimes good stuff, sometimes bad stuff says: "Rise up, rise up"
But who will lead? Would Bruno lead? Our RNC now carry guns, and can be very careless, but some are good shots, even with a pistol.
In other countries, I see it is more so women that are braver and rise up…..does MFCCC have even one woman, I wonder……maybe the one from Tenasee, USA, from Davey Crocket country. Maybe she too killed a bear, when only three?
How do we get a Quiet Revolution? Or do we need a Rant and Roar one?
Bruno keeps shifting, now agreeing a little with PENG2.
Would Bruno take a bullet for the CAUSE? Or a big bag of wind? Job to say.
As you know, Cabot Martin was probably first here to give notice on the shale gas/oil impact.
When at Houston, a few minutes from the hospitals, right in the city, a power generation plant, no odour, no smoke, gas fed.
Gas is seen as a bridging fuel, much less GHG than any oil, until renewables can replace it ……..but even this gas adds to GHG.
So, first needing to go is coal, then tar sand oil, then dirty oil, then sweet oil, then gas. …….but 80% of existing oil must stay in the ground……….so that means a lot of Saudi oil must stay in the ground, as too for Russia and the USA and everywhere…
As Franklin said to John Adams: either we hang separately or we hang together ( being traitors to the British Empire).
So too with oil : we can cause climate instability separately and perish, or hang together to solve the problem and survive. The answer is obvious,but the USA under Trump is the main problem. Suddenly, now, all the Democrats are talking climate change mitigation and Green New Deals. If the USA don't lead, we ( our children and grandchildren) are all doomed. It is a test of humanity, and I doubt if we will succeed. Too many have oil on the brain, a bad and maybe fatal disease.
Winston I follow the truth , often to uncomfortable places. PEG2 occasionally, like a broken clock, is sometimes correct (twice a day). He occasionally, behind his cloak, is correct.
Setting the record straight, Hitler never won an election. He got 30 something %, and was part of a coalition. He burned down their parliament, blamed the opposition and instituted a coup. The rest you know. If you are not now frightened, you should be. I hope someone keeps the matches away from Trump if he loses the next "fake" election!
My record speaks for itself Winston. I have fought injustice (often for NL residents) from Petty Harbour to the United Nations. At the UN we caused quite a rukus that caused Crosby to send a planeload of sycophants to New York to counter our speaking truth to power and blaming Canada for wiping out the groundfish. Ask Cabot Martin about it. He organized the sycophants who were not taken seriously at the UN.
My days of leading the charge are over Winston. We need someone younger to lead the charge and go over the top.
You follow the truth? Yo say Hitler never won an election, he got 30 something %. He burned down the parliamnet, and instituted a coup.
Each election Hitler got higher, to about 30% then about 43, but not a majority, but was in control with restrictions. Folling the fire(which most historian say Hitler did not start) He uses emergency powers and Acts passed to further take full control.
After 2 year after there were referendums where he got about 90 % support, thought not considered free elections.
But ocnsider the unemployment rate was 6 million unemployed in Germany 1932, (the Depression started 1929). By 1936 in Germany the unemploymemt rate was 1 million. Hilter, evil , yes, but was popular. Used essentially legal means, and once dictator , he was the law. Is this true?
Here is an excerpt from my Telegram letter of August 25, 2018 https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor/letter-were-having-the-wrong-argument-about-muskrat-falls-236018/
"The province’s financial difficulties (although in large part due to this Muskrat Falls boondoggle) are now much greater than just electricity rates alone (and therefore are now well beyond the sole responsibility and expertise of the PUB — a “utilities” regulator).
Effectively shifting the burden of Muskrat Falls from ratepayers to taxpayers in no way ensures that the highest income earners/wealthiest segment of society will pay a much greater share of Muskrat Falls’ debt obligations.
As a political principle, should the quandary that we now find ourselves in be all but shifted to non-elected, non-accountable political appointees/bureaucrats?
At least we can vote our MHAs out of office.
Too much reliance on low rates/provincial taxation will help keep N.L. in the dinosaur age.
We (and the federal government) should be fostering and carefully guiding citizens toward a new high-tech, decentralized and efficiency oriented energy paradigm." UNQUOTE
I think the PUB has proven that it is an agency that is not only insufficiently independent, not only an agency that has a too narrow mandate, but also has a too narrow vision of what is needed to get ratepayers/taxpayers out of the mess that we are in.
And from the beginning, I saw government's shift of the 'rate mitigation' issue as an abrogation of its own responsibility, and motivated mostly be political interests rather than the people's best interests/needs.
Spot on as usual Maurice. The PUB is a politically addled organization and betrays its name. It is unlikely to act in the public interest any time soon.
While I have long had concerns about the level of reliance we could put on the PUB, MFCCC's comparison with the UARB is eyeopening.
We have a long ways to go.
Is there any regulatory difference between the UARB or the PUB? My reading of how both boards are setup and report to the respective HoA's is that they are analogous – the difference being NL political interference. I don't see how the UARB isn't as prone to interference as the PUB – just that the NS government didn't/doesn't interfere, not that they cant interfere.
If the difference is how politicians interfered, this is different problem than regulatory setup.
Perhaps so (I don't know) PENG2.
I recall being appalled that Jerome Kennedy, then Minister of Justice or natural Resources, not sure which, sent a letter to the PUB re the MF 2-option review trying to influence the PUB's decision.
Don't recall hearing any complaint from any party, MHA or otherwise.
So, the technical conference included the power companies, the Industrial companies(about 3 Companies) and the CA who is appointed to represent all residential (fat cat monster house owners and average Joes and Janes), commercial, institutional, and small business.
A technical conference is held in secret, not open to the public.
So, a wacki 100 million battery for backup for failure of the DC line is tossed around as a prudent investment?
The need to keep Holyrood runnng for another decade is tossed around as prudent? Reliability is a function of investment. Customers want no more rate increases so are willing to sacrifice investment….the consultation survey proved that.
A solar utility supply at foggy Trepassey ……prudent, or for Gander?
A EV pilot…..one car for Churchill Falls and in the name of equality , one for Nfld Power? Results of the pilot to be filed in 8 years.
A hushed discussion that the DC line at high capacity may be very unreliable ……but "Don't let the Nflders know", Malone has his spys.
A chat of how to tame Synapse, who is taking a broad approach, too broad for Nfld Power and Fortis shareholders as to CDM and peak load shaving. And too broad for Nfld Hydro/Nalcor and government.
A chat about the fact that our low cost more reliable island hydro power goes to NS, but 99% of the public thinks it is MFs power. The shit will hit the fan when the DC line goes down. That is technically big shit that must be kept on the back burner for as long as possible.
And the problem that GE is 5 years late in having software that is reliable to keep the DC/AC workable….. and in a few months generators will be in place, and Stan almost ready to say tally-ho….strong finish, the boys are working out the bugs, so we'll keep Holyrood thermal warmed up and ready, just in case.
Then too, how do we reverse our positions from 2015 saying all minisplits will shut down in adverse conditions, including the Avalon? Do we hold that position, even thought 28,000 houses now use then with little problem?
How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
How do we as Nalcor, announce that the boondoggle is no more, now a good project: after first commercial power? After 12 months with no outage? On the day Stan departs saying "all on tract as promised"
Technical is technical, Ajs can't be expected to understand technobabble, so these talks need to say secret. If Victoria can have secrets, why not the PUB?
WA @ 10:35:
The largest industrial battery location I know of is near LA – 80MWhr in capacity. A decent cost estimate is $300-400USD/kWhr, but dropping to $160USD in the next couple years – not yet feasible in our application.
For the EV in CF – biggest joke is how it got there, if it leaves town, and its use especially considering CF is an 'electric town'. EVs have a ways to go in NL as a whole.
I said a long time ago that the power commitment to NS was from Granite Canal / Bottom Brook and was independent of MF – but this is coming to be a discussion point now. I didn't like the comment that we have 2 lines from MF to SP – we have 1 line with 2 poles, no more reliable than that 1 line in my estimation (but most fail to note this distinction). Same applies for CF to MF – 1 lineway but 5 conductor sets across 3 sets of pylons – maybe 100m from side to side.
PENG2,As you realise, some of my comment above are tongue in cheek, if Bruno is fact checking…..example.solar in being coonsidered an option for trial for Gander and Labrador, not Trepassey.
Who stated 2 lines from MF to SP? Stan at the AGM?
Our AC 230Kv grid is 3 phase, so one transmission line is 3 conductors, but do not operated on 1 or 2 conductors.
The DC, is 2 conductors, but can operate at reduced capacity if 1 conductor is out of service. Rough figures, if 2 conductors and 800 MW transmitted, 1 conductor is about 675 MW, so some advantage, but if a tower goes down,and some other issues, both conductors are lost, then zero power.
Single conductor (each conductor called a pole) loss is much likely than 2 conductor loss.
Previous I commented about the GNP being the worst as to power reliability risk. You opinion was the area from MFs to the Strait, as to access in winter if a tower goes down. I agree access time for repairs can be worse as to long duration outages there.
For more frequent shorter time frame outages, I see the GNP due to the that 4 letter word "_ _ _ _", which Nalcor said, pre -sanction, was not a problem at all.
As a tease , especially for Bruno, or others, what that risk is, I ask what is it?
Yes, you long ago mentioned too of NS power coming from Granite Canal/Bottom Brook, I think few of the public understand the significance, as not being power direct from MFs.
WA @ 12:40:
Just so we know what we are talking about:
1) LTA – 2 lines of twin-Drake conductor, all near the existing line.
2) LIL – 1 line of 2 conductors.
To me, either set is only marginally more reliable than 1 line when considering climate or structural failure impacts.
I do catch your tongue in cheek comments – I was just adding to the understanding of what was actually built.
The Dominion monies was from a Federal fund, I think announced 1 wk ago with other monies.
I bet even Trepassey has sufficient solar exposure to do a solar thermal generation plant to feed the Southern Avalon clean renewable power. The transmission lines would be shorter and therefore more reliable. Where is the Engineering Study that proves otherwise? How about it Winston, PENG2 ?
Quick answer is: solar PV is running over 20 year payback, assuming good solar conditions, but Trepassey has a lot of fog,and coastal areas snow and sleet at times requiring to be removed. On the other hand, wind for that area is likely 4-5 times more cost effective, and less tranmission losses if close to the loads.
Robert, you are tossing Bruno a bone as to solar, I suggest. I can dig out solar costs on a web site locally : for houses solar/battery , 50,000.00 and not much capacity.
But for minisplits often operating at a few hundred watts, can be daytime fed on a small solar array for personal use, and can give some partial heat capacity if a power failure, but a wood stove is probably better.
Even with the foggy days, Loads of solar hot water to utilize.
Yesterday our shopper for groceries returned saying the shelves at Dominion supermarket were baren as to vegitables, but she went to Colemans and found plenty ( same story for fish quality and variety). I was surprised saying it sounds like the Labrador coast. She said it was due to delays on the Gulf crossings, but she said, Colemans buys local, and Dominion will not do that.
So on VOCM, Paddy Daley mentioned 12 million grant to Dominion for efficiency upgrades? Anyone have the details?
So we have Ball saying we need to improve the local food production more than the 10 % we now produce: the Way Forward…right on. While the way Backwards is to reward Dominion who will not buy local! That should be worth some votes, and is typical on how this province is run.
The day half gone, and Bruno hasn't dissed anyone yet today!
Since he was outed as a Greg Malone creation, he's disappeared.
My understanding was only one of the two HVDC lines was in service at a time. The second is redundant.
Perhaps I am wrong.
Yes as we all know all Island generates power is to be sent to NS and we get MF
That deal stunk when struck and remains stinky, it is because we can sell our local juice at buyer favourable rates and pay more for MF which couldn’t be sold at the going rate.
Normally for DC, both conductors are in service. For the cable o the Straits, they have 3 DC conductors, 2 operating normally, the 3 rd is a spare.
When DC operated with only 1 conductor, this is possible as the earth itself acts as a conductor.
Last UG piece someone asked if the DC/AC is all synchronised?
This may help:
For 20 or more island hydro generators and Holyrood thermal, and also gas turbines (combustion turbines as they use diesel), all these are AC 60 cycle that must be synchronised. Remote diesel are not part of the power gird.
If a major outage happens,each must be gradually synchronised to the grid frequency,to bring the power back on. The whole island operates at the same frequency, at 60 cycle, but also exactly in phase. The electricity is a sine wave, and if out a few degrees will shut down with protections systems or burn up….. so tricky for the operators.
So NS and Quebec is on a 60 cycles frequency too , yes, but out of phase with each other and out of phase with our grid too.
With DC links, these other grids are NOT, in fact, synchronised with ours. The DC links permits asynchronous operation, so NS, Nfld, and PQ actually out of synch with each other, but operates fine with the DC permits synch not necessary………..as long as all works as per good design.
This DC can prevent a cascade of power faults along a AC grid,(if all were in synch), so it has benefits, but also problems. Advantages and disadvantages.
The PUB needs to grow some teeth this year. Too often they look like Nalcor's meek spellchecker. Time to turn into a hard editor who is willing to tear up a bad manuscript and tell the writer their story sucks and people don't want what they are selling.
If the PUB thought Government was ready to fire them all back in 2012 or 2013, they really need to be aware of the many eyes on them this year. I'm sure they are. They need to step it up but rejecting the MFCCC and doing private meetings with no records is exactly the opposite. It seems all our faith might have to be in the consultants aiding the PUB – not a good place to be.
I will give the figures from memory from a week or so ago, from the link by Planet NL: It is to illustrate the high burden on our pocketbook of inefficient baseboard heat, and Holyrood fossil fuel burning, not just the fuel but the generation infrastructure included.
Costs for Nfld Hydro power:
In summer 2.8 cents
In winter 18 cents.
In winter nitetime 7.8 cents.
In winter at peak loads occurring twice a day 26 cents.
In winter single hour peak load 28.5 cents.
These numbers may be off a bit, but approximately as I recall them.
So why such a huge range, and only now being disclosed in detail?
2.8 cents is in general agreement that our legacy island hydro costs about 3 cent per kwh. In summer our peak load is about 600 MW. With island hydro and a little wind we have a total of near 1200 MW renewable power. We have a big surplus in summer,and some generation and transmission capacity not needed, and so low cost.
As to winter 7.6 cents: typically at night when the heating temperature is set back, or a mild winter day time, with about 1200-1300 MW, much of it on the Avalon, Yet Holyrood is running and we have hydro constraint reaching the Avalon. Both fuel and the cost of the Holyrood plant is added, and the cost jumps from 2.8 to 7.6 cents.
For the 26 cent cost: this because for the morning heat warm up, Holyrood needs to ramp up 300-400MW more. This for the typical 8am peak and again for 5 PM, so lots of fuel burning, and more thermal generators needed.
And the 28,5 cost? This for the real high peaks went adding gas turbines to the mix, as the fuel for that is about double the cost,and too the cost of the gas turbine.
So, we have a range of power costs from 2.8 to 28.5 cents.
The 18 cent winter cost is the average over time, some at 7.6 some at 26 , some at 28.5.
This is the result of almost 50 years of operating with dependence on Holyrood, and "promoting inefficiency" in our heating systems approach. Nothing to deter customers from this waste and high cost. Indeed, MFs was a vision to continue to promote this waste,(recall Straton and his forecast evidence) with ever greater winter peak loads.
Now, instead of Holyrood at costs of 7.6 and 26 and 28.5, we get MFs component at 60 cents or more. There lies the insanity.
If no electric heat, our winter cost of power to Nfld Hydro would be little different form summer at 2.8 cents.
If we made all our building and houses more efficient, our winter peak load with efficient electric heat would permit costs averaging not 18 cents but likely less than 10 cent, and winter/summer average maybe 6 cents wholesale. It wound require investing in our houses and building instead of MFs.
Now a consultant has worked out these various costs on a seasonal, daily and hourly basis, and they are only now assessing the prudence of decreasing peak load, and also time of day rates, having first gone mad, and created the monster of Muskrat.
Why was such an approach not assessed a "part of" the Isolated Options, for lowest costs alternatives,in 2012?
The charts showing the various costs are part of the recent study. Perhaps PlanetNL could do a piece on that subject, with more detail.
Why are technical conference at the PUB now in secret? A few elites only, mostly lawyers privy to the discussion of our energy rate future? The public denied input or knowledge of those secret discussions.
Right on Winston , you tell it like it is and explain it in common basic terms so that even the average Jane and Joe totally understands it. How does that get out to what I call the John Q. Public??? As you say even the Pub and the inquiry wants to hide that away from the people. The very inquiry that was created to show honesty and transparency. Wake up Judge BOY and come clean with the public, do the job that your position demands you do, and don't go pussyfooting around, "not in my terms of reference". It's in the people's terms of reference. Don't be a rubber stamp for any politicians or the elete or the establishment. Stand up and be a man and let the chips fall where they may. Or are you just a political appointment like Trumpies AG, where he is known as "NO HOLDS BARR" to protect the president. Joe blow.
Working above from memory of a week or so prior, these are the actual figures from the report:
Non winter costs, I said 2.8 cents, actually is 2.7 cents
Winter costs, I said 18.0 cents, actually 18.8 cents
Winter nitetime, I said 7.8 cents, actually 7.8 cents
Winter peaks, twice a day, I said 26 cents, actually 25.5 cents
Winter 1 hr peak, actually for 4 hrs at 29.5 cents.
Also this is an update of an earlier report showing the variation is costs with MFs operating, showing summer/winter. hourly difference etc, driven by our electric heat loads still now fed with Holyrood fossil fuel for decades, and now the loads essentially the same.
They predict loads and peak load to be constant to 2029 instead of increasing,(per their prior Nalcor assumption) but… if loads drop further these costs would be increased further.
With avg winter costs of 18.8 (these seem to be blended costs of MFs plus exixting hydro), and with added distribution with Nfld Power, it is seen where it requires about 23 cents retail.
But analysis now also is assuming mitigation by some means and 17 cents to be charged, as to predict a flat energy and peak load up to 2029. This may be wishful thinking.
Peak short term costs for Nfld Hydro seems to hit $600/MWh = 60 cents/kwh cost (page 50 for avg Jan day, 1225 MW load), and very short term at about 1.45 (Figure 13 , page 51)
Typical winter is 7 times more costly than summer, and is worst case 100 times more, though winter peak is typical about 2.5 times summer peak……..so we pay a very big cost by never bringing down our winter peak and always increasing it (Stratton's forecasting strategy to justify MFs)
Of the 25.5 cents winter peak cost , it is broken down:generation is 17.4 cents, reserve is 6.2 cents, transmission is 1.8 cents.
As a general rule generation assets cost 8-10 times more than transmission. Yet they always delayed on enough island transmission capacity to the Avalon, even now.
Marginal costs, says the report, are to keep increasing some each year, for 18.7 % more from 2021 to 2029, higher than the inflation rate.
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As usual the MFCCC has done good analysis that informs. What the MFCCC has yet to learn is that politics is a full contact sport.
The MFCCC as yet to learn that the playing field is badly tilted. When your group is the only player "playing it straight" you look naive at best. You must DEMAND changes to the "public" process that include and empower the public, not continue to victimize them. Politeness to a fault legitimizes unfair (bordering on fraudulent) public process. You become part of the problem when you do not decry unfair public process.
When the Nalcor lawyer was allowed to demand Des be put on the stand there should have been a riot. When the "independent" single judge refused to grant intervenor standing to Raphals, despite his technical understanding of the WMA, the inquiry descended into disrepute.
When LeBlanc was allowed to manipulate evidence this way he was handed his rubber chicken, Here Come da Judge. When you meekly accept bogus process you tacitly accept public abuse.
A co-ordinated walkout by all publicly minded interveors was the only response. A process stretched out until after the next election demonstrates a prima facie case of fraudulent intent.
Now that a more friendly and INCLUSIVE model has been demonstrated in NS just what will you do about it?? Being the only one taking a rigged game seriously has a name….let me see, it is called being a chump if I am not mistaken.
he's back.. Greg Malone/Bruno is still trying to pull your chain UG.. just ask him for a guest spot on the next Codco reunion
I forgot to mention how bizarre it was for Kate to be whisked away to the bench when the technical experts were about to testify. I suppose they need her to sit on the bench to crucify those insolent land protectors and especially the damned reporters that had the nerve to follow a story…imagine!
Go get em Kate!
This all applies to voters in NL as well:
Thanks Robert for this link!
IMHO, this is an extremely accurate / detailed analysis, yet very easy to read.
And indeed, most of it is applicable to any oil producing jurisdiction. I believe this is a must read article.
Climate Policy is Economic Policy. Mr. Ball, where is your platform?
I was a denier until I saw the light.
I see this 50 and 60 cent kWh talk is slipping into common use. Let us pray this is not real or a self-fulfilling prophecy!
Who started it?
Stan “Take No Prisoners” Marshall?
Someone get on him to retract, if it was him, or clarify, if it was him.
Dwight is going to have some mitigation if that rate becomes a reality.
Doom da doom doom
Doom da doom doom doom
Apparently my namesake is being legislated out of existence in 2019 as per the smiling Premier. What will i come back as i wonder? The "Mitigating Guy" "The HMP Fee payer". Oh the excitement of getting a new name.
When synthetic rubber doesn't hit the road. How will we get around, transport goods, and all forms of transportation. How about the ashfelte itself any oil products in that. Plastic grocery bags will be gone. Do you ever buy anything not wrapped in plastic these date. Paper is too expensive and destroying our forest for nada. Can you think of anything that is not made of oil products ask Joe blow. If if pots and pans were made of sand, what would we do for "tinkers".
Off topic but: History, especially Nfld History, to me is very interesting. But here in Nfld we were only a spec in the vast British Empire. Seems there is much British history that was omitted from our school books, and some, the details perfered to be hidden and forgotten.
Slavery we hear much about the American experience, forgetting that the British was number one in the business of the slave trade form Africa to the Americas, and many fortunes were made.
I had read little of the East India Company,and India as part of the Empire, as compared to the Hudson Bay Company.
Today is the 100 th year since April 13 th 1919. WW1 had recently ended. At the Bagh, a park area, in Amritsar, India, about 15,000 had peacefully gathered.
The British General, Reginal Dyer, would demonstrate the ability and effectiveness of his 50 soldiers and the Enfield rifles. Only one comment of a soldier was recorded after the event: "While it lasted it was splendid, we fired every round we had". Dyer stated the event was planned by him to avoid an expected riot. In all they had fired 1650 rounds in ten minutes. The narrow streets had prevented his armoured cars getting through, which had machine guns, so he had to make do with the rifles.
They fired directly into the unarmed people in Amritsar, as they tried to escape. In all 341 men and 41 women were killed. Another 1500 were wounded.
Back in Britain Dyer was soon acclaimed as the Empire's saviour, by militant imperialists. Privately Churchill said it was murder. The Archbishop of Canterbury said Dyer was a patriotic soldier, and much praised his Christian virtues. Churchill at other times commented that Indians were the worst of all people, except for Germans.
I had never until recently heard or read of India's contribution to WW1: 1.1 million men in locations from Flanders to Gallipoli,and elsewhere, 50,000 to 70,000 killed, yet treated like slaves. Sacrifices and fatalities, I think, exceeding that from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Nfld, and South Africa combined.
Dyer, following an Inquiry, resigned from the army, but one of the newspaper firms In London raised 26,000 lb British money as a gift for him: in today's value, over 1 million dollars.
Much history is an inconvenient truth.
The event was a turning point for Gandhi, who had been a recruiter for the British in WW1.
Winston, in modern history, like now, how many Iraquies, Afgastans, Sirians, and a few other Middle East countries have been killed in revenge for 9/11. Just asking??? Joe blow.
Can't say , but just Syria, I think half a million or more and several million displaced, last few years, and Afgans , the longest war ever for the USA….. Bush Junior legacy.
I read of India, the flu caught in the trenches in WW1, I assume the so called Spanish Flu(also brought back to Nfld and especially bad in Labrador), in India it killed 14 million!
But modern times death from war is much reduced since WW2, and I suppose they fear nuclear war,as noone can win it and called mutual destruction, so fight smaller but also long wars.
Gwynn Dyer and others suggest climate change wars is the future, and now over 90,000 to the Mexico/ US border just in March, mostly families including children, as harder to live in countries most impacted by climate change.
Nfld looking for immigrants, no one now to work in fish plants, or for home care,? Why not send Ball to El Paso with invitations? Trumpie could meet him there and shake his hand for taking some. They could do another Broadway show as to our hospitality.
MORE ON MARGINAL COST;
UG readers may know that MUN economist James Feehan advocated to let "marginal costs" be passed along, instead of hiding them, so that customers would adjust their use of electricity, make efficiency improvements, or HPs etc, or wood, or oil to avoid expensive new generation such as MFs.
A picture is worth a thousand words, as to marginal costs, this being an economic term, as too elasticity effect, much debated, especially by Dave Vardy.
UG piece March 25, by PlanetNL, at the bottom has a link titled "2018 Marginal Cost Update"
Page 5 says "for the PUB and parties…..potential use on electricity pricing and conservation and demand management"….so useful for CDM.
Page 8 shows that despite *824 MW of MFs power , due to 590 MW of thermal generation retirement, and 158 MW to go to Emera in NS, and also substract 80 MW of transmission loss over the DC system to Nfld, the end result is only 72 MW of net addition. We spend 12.7 billion, and end up wit 72 MW over what we had. Criminal. And that assumes that 900 MW is comming over the DC line, so about 100 MW form CFs.
Page 13, is the picture for you to see, the chart, with costs varies over the day in winter from 7.8 cents to 29.5 cents.
This extreme variation is mostly due to electric heat, but in part due to programmable thermostats,and hot water etc, and here promoting those thermostats for years,which is false economics.
So that picture, I suggest "Not for Nflders to see" , just for the PUB and parties.
Good to keep technical discussion secret, as some would have a lot of explaining to do, how this has been allowed to happen for decades now.
WA @ 12:19:
I will play devils advocate here, but you comments are right.
So 72MW addition(I agree with this number), if the Nalcor projection of increased demand of 0.8% annually was an honest estimate – how was Holyrood ever going to be decommissioned?
If we roll back and accept the original estimates as data input:
1) MF due online in 2017
2) actual peak demand of ~1690MW in February 2019 (for better analysis, what was projected in 2010 for 2017?)
3) annual growth in peak demand of 0.8%
My math tells me that we would have been out of power by 2025-2030 anyway (say about 125MW additional demand from 2017) – despite of MF online and Holyrood being decommissioned and this scenario only being an extra 72MW supply.
Holyrood being taken down was never the plan – used as MF hype only.
So just for the average Joe, what you guys and PlanetNL has written, our cheap reliable AC paid for power is rounded up and sent to the conversation near Deer Lake, where it is converted to DC power and sent to NS, where it is again converted to AC for distribution. MUskrat and or Churchill power comes in on DC lines to the converter station at Soldiers, where it is converted to AC power and distributed around the Avalon. I know very little about converter stations, except they are very expensive to build. And maybe any excess power from Labrador is then transmitted from soldiers via AC line to the DL converter station, where it is converted to DC power to be sent on to NS. Does any of this make any sense technically, converter stations, etc. Should they not have sent the DC power line from Labrador direct to the ML and onwards to NS. That's why I call them, buggers, traitors and treasonist, to send our cheap, reaiable power to NS, and give us the expensive, unrealiable power from the LIL, the muskrat or Labrador power. Does any of this make sense. Will The inquiry deal with any of that what appears to me to be a shamazile for power distribution, ask Joe blow.
I made a type in my peak demand above – should have been 1790MW, not material to the point though.
AJ @ 14:53:
Power generation is AC (MF, UC island hydro etc; though solar, and maybe a few others types would be DC) – UC power is transmitted in AC to MF(or the US of A), there is a convertor yard at MF; the convertor yards are part of the problem now with uncertainty of MF COD. WA would be better than me to do a tech talk, but more or less, you are right.
Memory tells me there was an original LC development iteration with convertor yards near Corner Brook, but that's a 15yr old memory now.
Yes Joe you got it right, and as PENG2 says, the generators are all AC.
At MFs station the power from the MFs generators and also any coming from CF then converts to DC. That is why the DC line to Soldiers Pond is 900 MW, to handle the 824 MFs (now expected to be about 790 max, and about say 110MW from CF for 900). This power needs cooperation for flow from HQ, and the Spur to hold etc.
So that power all comes to the Avalon as DC, where it is converted back to 230 kv.
Half of the Avalon power always came from Holyrood in winter, as only 2 lines fed island power this way, and long delayed on the 3rd line. Even now the new 3 rd 230 kv line comes only as far as Long HR area, Western Avalon, so not much benefit, a constraint to Eastern Avalon, if the DC feed goes down.
If the Avalon needs 1100 in winter, and 800 comes from the DC, then only 300 comes from existing island. If the DC goes down in winter, we get only about 65O from the island power, because of restraint, so short 450 MW : this Peter ALteen of Nfld Power said they are surprised at, NO Surprise. So, for back up, either Holyrood stays operating, or it is decommissioned and gas turbines to replace it, or wait and see how well the Labrador is as to reliability, as to how soon they will address the back up power issue : could even be a mix of adding wind and gas turbines, reducing the restraint, and CDM (to lower the Avalon demand); but backup IS essential, but the amount could depend on the mix of options the choose.
The DC feed is large so if a fault on that feed, a high risk it will take down the entire island power: needing to stop feeding NS, and get as much island power to the Avalon as possible……not less than 3 hrs and maybe much longer, plus rotating outages on the Avalon for a day or more to bring on the old Holyrood thermal…a hell of a situation, as I see it, but gas turbines are much quicker to bring on the system………so Stan now says " Up to customers how much more money we should spend for RELIABILITY! All these experts, all this money spent, and now to say "Up to customers" Customers never had a say before, and not much say now, with secret technical discussions. Shocking state of affair ahead of us, and make no wonder Ball is in a rush for elections.
So, yes, a separate DC feed to NS from our 230KV low cost reliable island hydro from central and west, Granite Canal area I think, and at NS it is again converted back to AC for their grid.
So our island hydro with about 10 generator sites is reliable and also low cost, about 3 cent power averaged for island hydro, NS gets priority on that unless we get in trouble on the Avalon. We , on the Avalon get a single large MF single source, remote site that will feed the Avalon, and cost maybe 60 cent power (less when blended with island hydro), but also likely not reliable to be able to decommission Holyrood as we will need back up.
I too seem to recall earlier scheme to split the Feed from Labrador near Corner Brook, part going to NS, part to the Avalon, which while MFs was never a good idea, that was a little better, but too risk for NS as to reliability.
Now we on the Avalon get the worse of all,and NS gets the best of all. Ed Martin and Gilbert Bennett and others have shafted us from all sensible rational planning, both as to cost and reliability, no real benefit connected to the NA grid, just added expense and lower reliability for us. School children could not plan a worse or more expensive system.
This madness needs exposure at the Inquiry, as these issues have not been addressed. Making this right is like winning the Lotto, a long shot.
Another rant,and a bit repeating myself, but the picture is taking shape. I see little good from this, and likely even Synapse's best intent and ideas will be ignored.
PENG2: as to reliability risks for transmission the Great Northern Peninsula:
The four letter word mentioned, is : SALT.
Salt spray on insulators causes flashovers, a temporary issue and not a power failure usually, it can reset in a half a second, but in high winds and right conditions, it repeats and shuts down the system. Near the ocean is worse, but many miles inland too in can be a problem.
In 2012 I was amazed to see Nalcor documents say for MFs transmission line, salt was NOT a contaminant. The line was compared to the island 230 kv , where the issue was not that great and infrequent. But why compare it to the 230KV?
Most of our 230KV is inland, not near the coast, so few incidents. The GNP, with 138 and 69 kv has considerable issues with flashovers. I was more amazed to see MHI not pick up on that,and can only assume they were not given data on the GNP operations, or turned a blind eye.
Later I accidently met Danny Dumeresque, and mentioned this to him, and as an intervenor, He put questions to Nalcor, and I believe they eventually acknowledges in an answer that salt was indeed a contaminant(but never said it was a risk).
Little can be done to counteract it, longer insulators wit higher creep, they call it, helps a little, or relocating the line further inland, but mother nature is master. On existing lines outages from flashovers are, I think, about 5-10 times, more frequent and longer time frames on the GNP that other parts of the island.
As to Dark NL, events in 2013 and 2014,…. 2014 the worse. Jan , 2013, I think, Holyrood was down for some 6 hrs and a major outage. I suspected flashovers, but all the talk was improper maintainence, even Liberty.
Eventually I saw posted the sequence of events, and repeated flashovers at the Holyrood station and on the line inland some distance.
Mother nature with some rain washed off the salt later that day and only then would the line stay energized. This at 230KV ( which Nalcor says salt is not a problem for 230kv)
About 2 years passed before finally Liberty stated salt and flashovers triggered that outage in 2013, and it quietly got forgotten, ignoring the risk for the GNP, which I assume Nalcor wanted to keep quiet.
After that AMEC did a study and stated that for Holyrood such an event had a recurrance rate of 1 in 10 years, but could be 2 years in a row.
So, not that bad as to frequency, for Holyrood, but that happened under low wind conditions too. But the GNP is wicked for high winds and salt related flashovers……..so that will be, I expect, the most frequent issue.
Stan said this winter there have been no issues so far. I wonder if PENG3 can confirm no flashovers?
A few years ago, I was aware from their studies that the DC line would be stable under one flashover, about half a second, but no study result as to stability for a second one right after the first, if still was stable or if it would shut down the system?
That sanctioning was done without such results (and too for other engineering not done) was very high risk. Much lies ahead as to reliability assurance.
You obviously also see significant issues with geotechnical, and access for repairs on the lines.
To originally say salt was NOT a contaminant……I suggest fraudulent, as it was so obvious for that area from historical records of operation., and deceptive to compare to the 230KV instead of the 138 and 69 kv experience. For DC vs Ac at the same voltage, DC is more prone to flashovers, as the voltage level is constant.
Surely for Hydro protection engineers, the GNP is a worrisome issue.
In 2013, for Holyrood , this was known almost immediately, as events are recorded and analyzed……but 2 years for admittance of the problem. Engineers are silenced? Must go through PR people I assume.
WA @ 19:20:
I think we are talking different but very related issues, perhaps almost inseparable – the difference in reliability or durability.
There were talks on salt contamination and several route iterations before what we have now was built – If salt was a big factor, I don't know, but some of the issues affecting line routing were land owners, topography and line optimization.
You are correct above in that the Emera feed connects at Granite Canal and heads westerly to Bottom Brook convertor yard – this work was completed in 2016. The question people be impacted by the most: Can we refuse to transmit power to NS if the LIL goes down after COD and we have an overall shortage – this has long been one of my reasons for completion of MF (aside from the other FLG clauses).
A question for you: does operation, generation and transmission of say 50MW require the same manpower as 500MW at MF/LIL/LTA?
So, the LIL goes down in mid winter, Holyrood running at maximum (if it still exist ) KD said it was obsolete and on its last legs back in 2013-14, not worth repairing, that's why we had DarkNL, she said that last month on the stand. Did someone advise her of that or just made it up on the stand. And we loose 800MW from the LIL, in mid-winter, what does the legal contract say about continuing power to NS, a good question, Peng2. Hope we never have to find out, or put it to the test says Joe blow.
The operation, generation and transmission whether 50 or 500 MW would not be much different, I suggest, with a little more for 500MW, example routine maintainence if 3 hydro generators being used instead of just one, would add a little.
So with MF , costs ofoperation and to maintain at 107 million a year, a lot of its potential energy needs to be sold to justify it's operation. So the electricification idea of Synapse seems sound, if MFs operates and can be reliable, to use up energy in Nfld, rather than selling more very cheaply to NS.
To support electricification, peak demand in winter must be controlled with significant CDM, allowing electricification at the same time.
Time shifting, I suggest, per the Marginal Cost study, would have much less impact on the grid or for customer saving,(the high cost now are largely baked in, and time shifting should have been stated decades ago)) as compared to CDM with EE.
Time shifting the power companies like, because it protects their revenue, and saves little for customers. If you delay your hot water heating by 6 hrs, you need to use that energy 6 hrs later.
I expect incentives for time shifting will be very small.
As to losing the DC infeed from Labrador, I understood that this is emergency situation, and flow of power to NS would stop or be reduced, so within the contract terms. I stand to be corrected if not so.
Shortage of power in NS,is likely to occur at the same time,in winter, due to reduction of power from Nfld over the ML. This would require NS bringing on thermal generation units taking considerable delay. They are restricted importing from NB. A link there of about 350MW but typical only 100MW available from NB.
So the fallacy for years now that in an emergency we could import power from NS (a supposedly benefit of connecting to the NA grid).
We imported a little this year, as NS still has thermal up and running. With MFs on, their thermal then reduced, if our 800 MW is lost for Labrador, NS loses its power from Nfld, and will need their own reserve, with no spare to send us power. So that deception is still on going, and no one seriously addressing as to the solution.
Further, even if NS could send some power, our own constriction of transmission past Long Hr (Western Avalon) prevents more than 650 MW coming to the eastern Avalon. That 650 MW should be available from the island, and any power addition form NS has nowhere to go, I suggest.
So the case for significant Avalon backup power is "absolute", I suggest, but how much and what means, and will the peak be reduced/?
All these questions were known prior to MFs sanction.
As to the old Holyrood units. MA has stated their useful life is only half used up. True. But repairs get harder and more expensive as things get obsolete. After DarkNl and Liberty advise, much upgrades have been done, and units seems to perform well this winter.
They may decide to keep them operational for another decade, with some, not total replacement by CTs, as lowest cost for back up.
Also bith the 50MW gas turbines at Hardwoods and Stephenville are very old , unreliable and recommended to be decommissioned soon , as not reliable.
Marshall says "how much reliability are customers willing to pay for"? May not now be that simple.
Seems the technical rules for linking to the NA grid now has a say on reliability of our system, not just what Nfld senior citizens customers can afford……another negative of connection to the NA grid, increasing costs here.
WA is correct: when LIL is down, deliveries to NS are suspended. If partial failure of transmission or generation, delivery to NS shall be in proportion to available capacity.
PENG2 should've known this for all his expertise spilled here on these contracts but now admits as the job is almost finished he was not clear. It turns out he was in fact wrong, yet he advocated for completion because of his misunderstanding. Maybe Our Stan and Smiley Dwight, a duo to whom he shows much allegiance, were just as confused. Yeah, right. PF says PENG2 is a Nalcor operative and I wouldn't argue with that assessment.
WA @ 11:50:
Emergency repair – I agree that we would likely be able to argue justification in stopping feed to NS. I am thinking more along the event that take week or months to repair – say a dropped line, failed tower etc.
Something else I haven't seen anyone mention – are the NL Hydro crews ready to deal with a 2" diameter conductor when the largest currently in use is about 1"? Sure, the principles don't change, but a totally different scenario – and with COD about 1yr out can NL Hydro even get the necessary training, equipment and resources in place? And then we could start a discussion on logistics – just how to get equipment to remote LIL areas when the ferries have trouble?
The NL Hydro guys are top notch, I wont take away from that – but the LIL is a different piece of infrastructure none of them have seen before. LTA is similar to existing transmission, so I wouldn't expect the same issue there. Even most of the Valard guys never pulled anything like the HVdc line before – so few sub contractors have done it.
And we haven't even digested just how to get the lights on in St John's yet in 'light' of transmission logistics.
I said quite a while ago – politically motivated and poorly planned. I see no reason to back off that now – none of these issues just came up in the past 1-2 years, just ignored in 2003-2012.
Anony @ 12:08 (I assume Pf):
Here is a link to the Nalcor-Emera power supply agreement.
The article(s) you are looking for are #3(particularly 3.6) and #4 – neither dispute what I have said, maybe you should review.
Nothing says NL can indefinitely suspend transfer, and we are expected to return the anticipated economic benefit to NS as if the supply wasn't interrupted.
It's amazing for sure. World class nalcor experts like Eddie feeding us all this hog wash 10 years ago about advantages of being connected to the NA grid, and making gravy on the spot market by selling at opportune times into the US market. And most suckling it back as factual. Other knowledge persons were saying it was baloney talk, and some average joes like myself knew it was all lies and half truths, and they were just dreaming in technicolor. So how could that all happen??? Just to convince the people that muskrat was the best thing since sliced bread, we needed the power, and lots of oil money to pay for it no matter the cost, and all part of becoming an energy wharehouse. Yes, it was oil on the brain syndrome says Joe blow, that's what made me do it.
PENG2, No, I, PF, did not post as anon@ 12:o8, seems that anon accepts the reasons stated by me in the past, that you seem to be a Nalcor opertive; you have not denied you are paid by Nalcor or others to infuence opinion this blog. While your opinions are interesting, and technical and political etc, it casts a shodow of bias on your opinions.
PF @ 13:19:
I don't and wont get into personal nonsense – I offer a unbiased assessment opinion or theory. I cannot be political and never 1x advocated 1 party over another, I am not in the business of saying what is popular either.
Just what have I said makes you think I am a 'Nalcor operative'?
It is the way opinions like yours are broadcast and re-aired by the many that have silenced a lot of dissention such that we now have a governance issue.
In the interest in starting a discussion, here are a couple clauses from article 3.6 of the 2015 Nalcor-Emera Energy Supply Agreement (noting that there is also a 2014 amending agreement and other previous agreements):
in the absence of an agreement between Nalcor and NSPI pursuant to Section 3.6(b), the equivalency of economic value for the purposes of Section 3.6(d) shall be calculated by NSPI by comparing (i) the economic value that would have been obtained by it from the postponed Energy, had it not been postponed, with (ii) the economic value actually obtained by it from the Redeliverable Energy that is subsequently delivered by Nalcor. NSPI shall calculate the economic value of (i), above, by multiplying the quantities of Energy in respect of which delivery was postponed by Nalcor by the Incremental Cost Rate associated with such postponed Energy. NSPI shall calculate the economic value of (ii), above, by multiplying the quantities of applicable Redeliverable Energy actually delivered by Nalcor by the Incremental Cost Rate associated with such delivered Energy. Any Dispute regarding the application of this Section 3.6(e) or Section 3.6(g) will constitute a Specified Dispute to be determined pursuant to Section 6 of the Dispute Resolution Procedure;
The delivery of Redeliverable Energy, once Scheduled, may not be further postponed other than in accordance with Section 3.6(g);
Nalcor’s obligation to Schedule and deliver Redeliverable Energy may be postponed to the extent that Nalcor is unable to perform such obligations due to a Forgivable Event, provided, however, that Nalcor shall not be entitled to postpone the Scheduling and delivery of Redeliverable Energy beyond the date that is 365 days following the applicable Original Date of Delivery; and
The agreements are easy to find online – but I find it harder to determine an out for NL.
Isn't it ironic, that in dealing with the Federal government on offshore oil under the AA, NL is the principle or primirary benificier of the resource, as if it were located on land. And I guess if you were interpreting the Nalcor – NSPI agreement, and in the event of power shortage from muskrat, NSPI would become the principle or priminary benificer, or words to that effect. Is that a fair comparison, ask average Joe.
Follow the strings upward… to see who's directing the PUB puppets.
This province has no chance for a future without the expulsion of our systemic corruption.
And here we have these effing assholes, the TRUTH-CHALLENGED DWIGHT BALL and the rest of his gang of colossal idiots and vacillating invertebrates such as GERRY BYRNE, and the fremschamen-inducing CHRISTOPHER MITCHELMORE and that useless turncoat opportunist twit GRAHAM LETTO… now here they all TRYING TO BUY OUR VOTE YET AGAIN USING OUR OWN TAX DOLLARS AND DEFICIT LEVIES:
Are today's NLers going to fall for this bloody scam yet again? Or or they going to vote with their heads instead of the dull-headed apathy of their ancestors?
Now people, here's three suggestions that will serve to excise some of the ENTRENCHED ROT in NL politics…
1) vote ABI… anyone but the incumbent;
2) vote for an NL Alliance or NDP candidate;
3) if none of the above is palatable, then spoil your ballot so as to send a message to these cheesy, scum-sucking bastards that they're not worth voting for.
The best advice I give is; Don't give any party majority control. It is the main problem we have in our Parliamentary Democracy. A constituent Assembly, Coalition, Proportional Rep. form would be more accountable to the People.
Today we remember Battle at Monchy;
Lost our uncle, Aubrey George Holmes, to the "cause". Called up in 1916, aged 21, Lewis Gunner with the Regiment.
Hold the presses!
Premier Ball is going to save us tomorrow!
That is what the press release says
Wow! I may have take back all the doubt.
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What was the comment by the blog adm. Must have missed it says average Joe.
DOES EVERYONE SEE THE DOUBLE IRONY IN THIS REJECTION??
I am 100% convinced that if the PUB were allowed to complete their review of the MF Project it would have never gone ahead and we would not be in the mess we are in now. As a result, we have a huge addition to our provincial debt and huge cost for rate mitigation.
And now this Government goes to the PUB for help to come up with some sort of miracle recommendations. WOW! Can the PUB print money, I wonder?
And at least 2 years leading up to the sanctioning of the MF Project; Dave, Ron and Des were trying to tell everyone this project was not needed and to slow down. Did Nalcor or the Provincial Government listen? NO, these guys were vilified by Nalcor and the Provincial Government and almost run out of town.
Now this same group (of volunteers) has asked the PUB to help out with the recommendations for the rate mitigation process. And what has the PUB said, "thanks, but no thanks"
We are learning from the Muskrat Falls Inquiry our Government and Nalcor processes are broken and out of control. And here again is a clear example, they do not want people to be involved who may have a different view.
We will NEVER learn. Shame on us all.