EDITOR’S NOTE: The author of today’s article is the whistleblower, dubbed the “Anonymous Engineer”, who disclosed – on this Blog – falsification of the estimates for the Muskrat Falls project. That was January 30, 2017 . His comments were recorded in a post entitled Muskrat Cost Estimates “A Complete Falsification”. A second post called Muskrat: Allegations of Phony Cost Estimates provided significant additional details of low-balling which ultimately were used to justify the Sanction of a project that has become a scourge on the Province’s economy. His alarming assertions have been supported with revelations which emerged from Phase I of the Commission of Inquiry. This article attempts to shed light on an issue that is likely to be assessed during Phase II, often referred to as the Construction Phase. — Des Sullivan
Guest Post by the “Anonymous Engineer”
Impact
of Labour Productivity on
of Labour Productivity on
“Base Estimate” for the Muskrat Falls Project
It is almost two years to the month since I spoke with the
host of the Uncle Gnarley Blog, Des Sullivan, and subsequently with Anthony Germain of the CBC
Morning Show. At that time I revealed that the estimates on which the Muskrat Falls
project was approved were low balled and falsified. I am confident that those
statements were heard at the political level and that they might have
influenced the Government’s decision to commence
the Inquiry which, of course, I have been monitoring.
After sixty two days of inquiry and sixty two witnesses I
thought it might be useful to offer my observations of what has been disclosed
so far. I am also keenly interested in Phase II, which will deal with
post-Sanction issues, in particular the matter of the egregious cost overruns, which have been experienced on the project.
In this regard, it is my intention
to offer readers a mathematical analysis
of the impact of construction labour productivity, on the project sanction
estimate the low-balling of which, I believe, added greatly to bringing costs to their current level.
But, first,
here are my initial observations of Phase I of the Inquiry’s work:
thought it might be useful to offer my observations of what has been disclosed
so far. I am also keenly interested in Phase II, which will deal with
post-Sanction issues, in particular the matter of the egregious cost overruns, which have been experienced on the project.
In this regard, it is my intention
to offer readers a mathematical analysis
of the impact of construction labour productivity, on the project sanction
estimate the low-balling of which, I believe, added greatly to bringing costs to their current level.
 |
| Former Nalcor CEO Ed Martin |
But, first,
here are my initial observations of Phase I of the Inquiry’s work:
1.
It is abundantly clear that Nalcor deliberately misguided
and misled government departments and other organizations that had an
“oversight” responsibility. These include as a minimum, the Ministry of
Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Board of Directors of Nalcor, Joint
Review Panel, the Public Utilities Board and MHI. Information
that provided a strategic disadvantage to the project was rejected.
It is abundantly clear that Nalcor deliberately misguided
and misled government departments and other organizations that had an
“oversight” responsibility. These include as a minimum, the Ministry of
Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Board of Directors of Nalcor, Joint
Review Panel, the Public Utilities Board and MHI. Information
that provided a strategic disadvantage to the project was rejected.
2.
Nalcor betrayed the trust placed in it by other
Government Departments leading to a feeling of anger amongst the effected
Government departments. These departments “swallowed whole” any and all
information provided by Nalcor based on their implicit trust of Nalcor.
Nalcor betrayed the trust placed in it by other
Government Departments leading to a feeling of anger amongst the effected
Government departments. These departments “swallowed whole” any and all
information provided by Nalcor based on their implicit trust of Nalcor.
3.
Nalcor low balled the estimate to secure project
approval, making contingencies inappropriately low and dropping “Strategic
Risk.” The advice of industry renowned experts suggesting higher contingencies
was ignored by Nalcor, who made every effort to restrict access to the base
estimate and estimating data.
Nalcor low balled the estimate to secure project
approval, making contingencies inappropriately low and dropping “Strategic
Risk.” The advice of industry renowned experts suggesting higher contingencies
was ignored by Nalcor, who made every effort to restrict access to the base
estimate and estimating data.
4.
The construction schedule was at level P1, or P3, that is the
schedule was essentially unimplementable. A P75 schedule, most suited for a
project of this magnitude and complexity, would have taken 21 months longer,
together with the associated costs.
The construction schedule was at level P1, or P3, that is the
schedule was essentially unimplementable. A P75 schedule, most suited for a
project of this magnitude and complexity, would have taken 21 months longer,
together with the associated costs.
5.
Expert Consultants reports which were not
favourable to the project were altered, suppressed, or altogether removed from
public circulation. Nalcor requested the consultants to alter their findings to
a more favourable tone supporting the project. Some of the consultants rejected
Nalcor’s requests.
Expert Consultants reports which were not
favourable to the project were altered, suppressed, or altogether removed from
public circulation. Nalcor requested the consultants to alter their findings to
a more favourable tone supporting the project. Some of the consultants rejected
Nalcor’s requests.
6.
Government officials moved from being in a
“judging role” to being advocates for the project, completely losing their
objectivity, becoming passive by standers.
Government officials moved from being in a
“judging role” to being advocates for the project, completely losing their
objectivity, becoming passive by standers.
7.
Phase I provided no serious debate about productivity, which
was essentially glossed over. Base upon my experience with the Project, I
believe that the issue is a matter of paramount importance in arriving at the
larger question of why such cost overruns occurred.
Phase I provided no serious debate about productivity, which
was essentially glossed over. Base upon my experience with the Project, I
believe that the issue is a matter of paramount importance in arriving at the
larger question of why such cost overruns occurred.
8.
The purpose of this write up, therefore, is to assess issues around construction productivity more fully and to
consider it’s impact on the “Base
Estimate”.
The purpose of this write up, therefore, is to assess issues around construction productivity more fully and to
consider it’s impact on the “Base
Estimate”.
The analysis of construction labour productivity is performed
with information in the public domain, principally from the Grant Thornton Report.
The Grant Thornton
slide deck, slide 36, shows the following table:
slide deck, slide 36, shows the following table:
To anyone knowledgeable of Project Management and Estimating, it is immediately apparent that the ratios of numbers are completely incorrect.
The numbers just don’t fit.
The numbers just don’t fit.
Each of the gaps will be discussed in turn.
1.
Commitment
Package Cost $ 4,588
Commitment
Package Cost $ 4,588
The
SNC Lavalin Senior Estimator, Paul Lemay stated in his testimony that there is
a 20% allowance for productivity and a $ 300 million allowance in the estimate
to cover productivity. This figure is nowhere near sufficient particularly
when working with unionized labour agreements, as the following analysis will
illustrate.
SNC Lavalin Senior Estimator, Paul Lemay stated in his testimony that there is
a 20% allowance for productivity and a $ 300 million allowance in the estimate
to cover productivity. This figure is nowhere near sufficient particularly
when working with unionized labour agreements, as the following analysis will
illustrate.
The
Commitment Package Cost includes the labour, construction equipment, specialized
equipment such as turbines, converter stations, switchyards, transmission lines
and towers and material required to construct the project. As the project is
labour intensive, project costs are enormously sensitive to labour
productivity.
Commitment Package Cost includes the labour, construction equipment, specialized
equipment such as turbines, converter stations, switchyards, transmission lines
and towers and material required to construct the project. As the project is
labour intensive, project costs are enormously sensitive to labour
productivity.
The 20% allowance carried in the base estimate
is consumed by routine items such as morning work session – tool box talks,
coffee breaks, washroom breaks, afternoon work session – self clean up prior to
lunch , return to work stations, coffee breaks and washroom breaks, quitting
time – clean work station and self clean up. These items are inherent in any
construction project, even in condominium construction in Toronto, Montreal or
Vancouver.
is consumed by routine items such as morning work session – tool box talks,
coffee breaks, washroom breaks, afternoon work session – self clean up prior to
lunch , return to work stations, coffee breaks and washroom breaks, quitting
time – clean work station and self clean up. These items are inherent in any
construction project, even in condominium construction in Toronto, Montreal or
Vancouver.
In
the harsh construction environment of Labrador, there are location specific multi-variable
productivity factors, unique to a northern Canadian climate, that must be
considered, namely:
the harsh construction environment of Labrador, there are location specific multi-variable
productivity factors, unique to a northern Canadian climate, that must be
considered, namely:
1.
Remote location
Remote location
2.
Harsh environment
Harsh environment
3.
Sub -artic climate
Sub -artic climate
4.
Short construction season (long winter)
Short construction season (long winter)
5.
Conditions – site congestion
Conditions – site congestion
6.
Worker fatigue
Worker fatigue
7.
Camp accommodation ( no separation of work and
off work)
Camp accommodation ( no separation of work and
off work)
8.
Work interruption due to time off
Work interruption due to time off
9.
Work supervisor interruption due to rotations
Work supervisor interruption due to rotations
10. Continuous
learning curve due to non returning workers
learning curve due to non returning workers
11.
Continuous learning curve due to non returning
supervisors
Continuous learning curve due to non returning
supervisors
The cumulative effect of these
factors is enormous – in the order of a multiple of 1.5 or 2.0 – say 1.8.
factors is enormous – in the order of a multiple of 1.5 or 2.0 – say 1.8.
The impact of this productivity
factor on the Commitment Package Cost of $ 4,588 million is assessed as
follows: (All figures are in millions of dollars)
factor on the Commitment Package Cost of $ 4,588 million is assessed as
follows: (All figures are in millions of dollars)
As this is a labour intensive
project, it is a fair assumption that 50% of the Commitment Package cost is
construction labour, supervision and construction equipment; hence $ 4,588 x
50% = $ 2,294. Of this 70% is construction labour and supervision = $ 2,294 x
70% = $ 1,606. If the labour productivity is 1.8, then the incremental cost of
poor productivity is $ 1,606 x 80% = $ 1,284. The package cost then becomes $
4,588 + $1,284= $ 5,872. Add another $ 150 for the consequential cost of camp,
bussing, medical security, air travel, sanitary services and the cost becomes $
5,872 + 150 =$ 6,022
project, it is a fair assumption that 50% of the Commitment Package cost is
construction labour, supervision and construction equipment; hence $ 4,588 x
50% = $ 2,294. Of this 70% is construction labour and supervision = $ 2,294 x
70% = $ 1,606. If the labour productivity is 1.8, then the incremental cost of
poor productivity is $ 1,606 x 80% = $ 1,284. The package cost then becomes $
4,588 + $1,284= $ 5,872. Add another $ 150 for the consequential cost of camp,
bussing, medical security, air travel, sanitary services and the cost becomes $
5,872 + 150 =$ 6,022
The package cost of $4,588,000 in the
original estimate becomes $6,022,000 once the labour productivity of 1.8 is
applied.
original estimate becomes $6,022,000 once the labour productivity of 1.8 is
applied.
2.
EPCM
Services
EPCM
Services
The ratio of EPCM to the package cost is 7.6%.
This is inappropriately low for a
project of this size, complexity and duration. A ratio of 12 to 15% is more suitable. The
revised EPCM cost becomes 15% of $ 6,022 = $ 903.
This is inappropriately low for a
project of this size, complexity and duration. A ratio of 12 to 15% is more suitable. The
revised EPCM cost becomes 15% of $ 6,022 = $ 903.
The revised cost of EPCM becomes $ 903M
3.
General
Conditions and Owners Cost
General
Conditions and Owners Cost
These
are prorated in direct ratio of the original estimate.
are prorated in direct ratio of the original estimate.
4.
Sub-Total
The
subtotal is recalculated with the updated numbers.
5.
Escalation –
Prorated according to the subtotal.
6.
Contingency –
Prorated in the same ratio in the Grant Thornton report page 62, for a P75 probability of successful
project implementation. Cost $2,321
The updated table adjusted for labour productivity , EPCM
and contingency is as follows:
and contingency is as follows:
Conclusion
The impact of labour productivity and having the correct
amounts for EPCM and contingency at P75 are clearly apparent. These push the
estimate over the $10 billion mark.
All this information and data was available in October of 2012, long before
project sanction.. It was not in Nalcor’s interest to do so. Therefore, it was
not done.
amounts for EPCM and contingency at P75 are clearly apparent. These push the
estimate over the $10 billion mark.
All this information and data was available in October of 2012, long before
project sanction.. It was not in Nalcor’s interest to do so. Therefore, it was
not done.
Seemingly, this is the reason why senior executives of
Nalcor did not want anyone, particularly
competent consultants, getting close to the estimate as they could have easily
worked this out. With a $10 billion dollar price tag there
would not have been a project.
Nalcor did not want anyone, particularly
competent consultants, getting close to the estimate as they could have easily
worked this out. With a $10 billion dollar price tag there
would not have been a project.
A comprehensive review of the estimate was never done at a
detailed level as it had no chance of approval. Nalcor strenuously opposed a “
deep dive” into the estimate, depriving consultants MHI, Validation Estimating
and Westney Consultants access to the estimate except at a summary level.
detailed level as it had no chance of approval. Nalcor strenuously opposed a “
deep dive” into the estimate, depriving consultants MHI, Validation Estimating
and Westney Consultants access to the estimate except at a summary level.
The project sanction estimate of $6.2 billion (excluding
financing costs) was an Executive Decision and utterly wrong. The correct figure was about $ 10 billion plus. Nalcor knowingly and deliberately understated
the project sanction estimate by $4
billion.
financing costs) was an Executive Decision and utterly wrong. The correct figure was about $ 10 billion plus. Nalcor knowingly and deliberately understated
the project sanction estimate by $4
billion.
Suggestion
to the Commission of Inquiry
to the Commission of Inquiry
Finally, I have this suggestion: please have John Hollmann
of Validation Estimating and or Richard Westney of Westney Consulting assess
the impact of construction labour productivity. The results will be very
revealing.
of Validation Estimating and or Richard Westney of Westney Consulting assess
the impact of construction labour productivity. The results will be very
revealing.
It will be equally
interesting for the Commission of Inquiry to compare the above
referenced estimate to the present
forecast at completion.
interesting for the Commission of Inquiry to compare the above
referenced estimate to the present
forecast at completion.
"Nalcor did not want anyone, particularly competent consultants, getting close to the estimate as they could have easily worked this out. With a $10 billion dollar price tag there would not have been a project."
I see this in other government departments too. Competent people get in the way of railroading bad things down the public throat. Competent people with ethics are blocked / pushed out, to make way for yes men. The system is thoroughly corrupt.
Some in the media made fun of people saying the project would be over $10,000,000,000, most of them were proponents for the project objective or investigative journalism doesn't exist in NL or trying to drive up listeners by being Nalcor/PC shills. Most in NL media did a great disservice with their Boondoggle Falls coverage or fell for it just like 2/3 of NLrs did at one point.
A PROJECT is the only things Ed and his buds from Petro Canada wanted. They were all about to be out of a job soon and needed a PROJECT, one in NL that THEY ran was a DREAM come true. What odds the cost to the Newfie taxpayer. They would all be rich after it.
There it is.
Plainly written.
The whole shebang in NALCOR and the Governments of Dan E. Williams through to Dwight Ball should be ashamed and remorseful.
They ruined us by lies, obfuscations and denials.
Enough to make you puke.
So, in this light what is a way out from under?
Who will save us?
What will it cost us?
Does anyone have a plan other than wait and see?
Time is running out and waiting for the next election is not an option, because regardless of who wins the situation will still be as dire.
Doom d doom doom
Doom da doom doom
Doom da doom doom da
All associated with misleading the people of NL, should be held responsible, and NOT the people of NL.
unknown @ 09:28
"should be– " and MUST BE held accountable. This whole MF debacle was fraud, pure and simple. The fact that those involved were mostly governing politicians and their hand picked appointees should not mean that they should not be held accountable.. DW started it, KD enabled it and EM carried out the wishes of the two premiers. The residents of NL were duped and will pay dearly form the actions of these ruthless scammers. The law should and must step in here and carry out a criminal investigation. Because of their status, they must not be immune to punishment. Bulls–t statements at the inquiry and outrageous claims to the media would make anyone's stomach churn.
If these numbers can be varified, and anonymous Engineer names those who can and will verify them, we not only have the six million dollar man but also the 4,000, 000, 000 man, all in one. Yes Dracula And Frankeistein. And that's the GOVERMENTS downfall. They created a monster, gave him world class status, handed over the public purse to him, he could do no wrong or no harm, HE RULED GOVERNMET. They became his servants. He ruled supreme. He roamed freely from nalcor to the HILL to the wilds of Labrador, and no one dear challenge him. From where did this power come????? YOu tell me says Joe blow.
This isn't a pure dictatorial thing. Danny was a ring leader, but there were many other powerful participants that benefited financially and/or banked brownie points to be used for future personal enrichment. Directors/ADM's, sociopathic economists, unethical consultants that agreed to "tailored findings", recipients of sole source contracts, professional staff with huge hourly rates etc. all did well.
I bet that if you tracked the career and financial status of all the key players that made this tragedy possible, you'd find they all did very well. Conversely, those that had ethics and opposed it were damaged, had their careers threatened, blacklisted or lost contracts, tenure challenged, fired etc.
Perfect example of a well rewarded participant:
Wade Locke Economic Consulting – from Uncle Gnarley's moonshine list http://unclegnarley.blogspot.com/2018/02/the-moonshine-list.html shows hundreds of thousands of revenue.
Do you think that had Wade been a Muskrat Falls realist, that his gravy train would have derailed?
Nalcor Energy to Wade Locke $176k
Lower Churchill Management to Wade Locke 331k
Natural Resources to Wade Locke $181k
Justice to Wade Locke $109k
Nice gravy train on top of his MUN salary.
Another participant (appears to have provided no resistance)
Charles Bown member of the MF oversight committee
From the CBC, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-mhi-independent-1.4883113 , we have :
"But Wilson acknowledged that changes were made at the request of Charles Bown, then-associate deputy minister with the Department of Natural Resources. I got the revised drafts back from Charles Bown with the risk removed," Wilson said of earlier versions that contained cautionary language for Nalcor about project risks."
It appears that his career is still doing well…
2012 / Dunderdale: Charles Bown is appointed Deputy Minister, Natural Resources, with responsibility for Mines and Energy. Mr. Bown served most recently as Associate Deputy Minister (Energy) with the department.
2016 / Ball: Today, the Honourable Dwight Ball, Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, announced that Charles Bown will spearhead the development of the Major Projects and Initiatives Unit of Executive Council.
2019 / Ball: Charles Bown is appointed as Deputy Minister of the Department of Tourism, Culture, Industry and Innovation, effective February 1, 2019.
From the list of witnesses at the Inquiry website, I initially wondered who Charles Bown was. I came to realise that in Ontario, someone in his position would sent out a 1 page Directive to the power companies saying reduce electrical energy use and peak demand by 2 % a year for the next 5 years, instead of spending 10 billion on a useless mega projects.
Here, after witnessing Bown's role from the Inquiry , Ball relocates him to another dept. That the culture of incompetence in government operations is little disputed, and Bown a world class, I suggest, now as Deputy Minister of Culture, Ball endorses this type of "world class expert" culture. He will surely use and promote our Culture to do a lot for Tourism, Industry and Innovation, as he did for our Energy Plan. This appointment a sad joke. All connected with this boondoggle continue being rewarded.
WA
He's gonna get caught
Just you wait and see
Why is everybody pickin on him?
Charlie Brown, he's a clown
Why is everybody pickin on me?
I really wish writers would stop assuming their audience knows what acronyms mean.
What is "EPCM"?
It is complicated. See this https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=b0d95beb-50c2-4d07-99ae-6d2176fe7e28
Wikipedia definition below. I agree with you though — rather than EPCM, it would be better to describe the relevant contractual responsibilities as needed so that a casual reader can understand the paragraph.
Engineering, Procurement and Construction Management (EPCM) is a special form of contracting arrangement. In an EPCM arrangement, the client selects a contractor who provides management services for the whole project on behalf of the client. The EPCM contractor coordinates all design, procurement and construction work and ensures that the whole project is completed as required and in time. The EPCM contractor may or may not undertake actual site work.
The acronym EPCM is also encountered frequently on international projects, but this is very different from EPC. EPCM is a services-only contract, under which the contractor performs engineering, procurement and construction management services.
Thanks.
It's not complicated to tell the reader what the letters EPCM stand for, which is all that is required.
Amount of underestimating or price cutting is easily figured out. There were 4 bids, 2 of which by contractors with Labrador / Canadian Arctic experience – so crash and point-out the 4 bids.
Normally this is done when a contract is let to determine bet bidder, but easy to back calculate and determine 'if' price alone was there determining factor.
I don't think any of the 11 location variables above arose after the bidding – all should have been substantially incorporated into the bid price. Also, there was a Major Project collective agreement inplace(or about to be endorsed) when contracts were let, so quantity should have been the only variable.
PENG2
Quantity of materials? The main issue is quantity of schedule. Many of the contracts appear they were not protected from dragging on therefore costs went way up. Nalcor backstopped all the risk.
Anony @ 13:23:
Now you are reaching into the nuances of a T&M contract – nothing to do with this discussion, that's a different issue.
PENG2
Ok, FWIW, I didn't understand your comment above or your response and I'm a PM engineer for construction who has managed lots of T&M work. I see the cost of poor scheduling as a serious budget impact.
Anony @ 15:07:
There were other powerhouse/dam bids (the 2 by Aecon and IKC-ONE would have been particularly valuable) to use to assess the Astaldi bid (ie crash and point-out). Lots of estimating sources to see if productivity claims were 'attainable' – it isn't hard to reassess the bids now to determine what went wrong.
The schedule extension becomes responsible when T&M contracts were employed – for initial underestimating as discussed in article, actual infield performance is irrelevant.
PENG2
Need to understand that Peng2 is:1. a consultant to Nalcor,and 2, a Fortis shareholder, as stated by PF, and, 3,: Peng2 has not denied he is paid to comment and influence opinion on this blog. So this suggest an agenda. While his comments are interesting, it often shows bias.
AG
Anony @ 15:41:
Tin-foil hat a bit tight today?
Considering Fortis stock went up $0.09/unit today in market gains today, us shareholders have to convince the PUB to raise NL Power profit margins by ~3-4% to 10% for full year to cover the market gains today.
My understanding is every NL Power employee has the option to participate in the ESPP, so you should ask your neighbors about their agenda too.
PENG2
After WW2 tinfoil hats were replaced by aluminium ones, Peng2. Thought you would know. But they are used to prevent mind control, as you know. Mine works great, and comes with BS sensors, an option.
As you fail to deny you are paid to comment here and influence opinion, then we must accept this is essentially a fact.
To juggle numbers to imply as you do fools no one. Like the 0.8 % forecast in power gains every year by Nalcor,for MFS, seems so small and reasonable in 2012 to most AJs,but not reasonable at all. Took you a full 2.5 hrs for your silly reply, but didn't address the question.
Few neighbours are Nfld Power employees. And don't know any on this blog every hour or so voicing opinions like you. So your inference that all Nfld Power employees have an agenda, like you, is BS too.
So too your first response to attack the messenger.
Too bad more Nflders never got tin foil hats to counter Nalcor's hit squad. 80 % bought in to their BS.
Now, if Fortis goes down 9 cents,instead of up, Nfld Power shareholders need to convince the PUB to increase profits 3-4 % to compensate, right?
Many such games we can play to mislead the public, or UG readers.
AG
Peng2, your figures suggest that a 9 cent rise in Fortis shares is about 1.4 million increase in value. When this happens for 6 days it pays for CEO 8 million a year in salary and benefits.
I met some Nfld Power retired workers who hold a few shares from a lifetime of work, and their Nfld Power pension was 13,000 dollar a year. The 9 cent rise don't do much for their dividend income, when it takes much more to just pay the CEO income first. Like all AJs, the ordinary Nfld Power worker worries about his power bill.
AG
I still disagree with Peng2 opinion that assumes the bids had to incorporate realism. I expect we'll find Nalcor had the bidders develop their bids based on the unrealistic 2017 completion date in order to obtain low contracts that would match their estimates. The fact the schedule was impossible then guaranteed overruns and foolish decisions. I'll wait for the Inquiry to tell us more. The bid comparisons Peng2 suggests are anticipated to happen at the Inquiry and I hope the judge can keep it all public.
Anony @ 08:25:
I never said 'had to incorporate realism.' What I said was factors 1-11 were unchanged before and after the bid, thus there is no excuse for realism not to be accounted for – thus no change in conditions affecting performance.
The bid comparisons I show above are easily done now or preferably before the contract was let – this will likely be the only way to determine what/why was done. From what I understand, Pennecon started a similar process in November/December.
PENG2
Just to keep them honest: did not Peng2 state some time ago that he would never comment on the Commissoner'r, Leblanc actions or decision during this Inquiry, now when he prevents Nalcor from using the commercial sensitvity issue as they wanted, he said Leblanc made the wrong decision. A flip flop Peng2?
AG
Anony @ 00:16:
Of that 9 cents, only 0.5cents 'goes to NL Power' – NL Power is about 5% of Fortis revenues/profits. My calculation indicates the 9cetns is closer to $100k increase in value, not sure what volume you are using; and executive salaries don't come from stock gains, but that another issue.
My point being, most look at NL Power as being Fortis (typical for NLers thinking we are our own little world) – NL Power is only 5% of Fortis and it is nonsense to think that NL Power guides the corporate planning of Fortis in a meaningful way.
This stuff of agendas just because someone has Fortis stock is nonsense – same as someone owning GM / IBM stock and thinking they influence the direction of those corporations.
This type of thinking is exactly what got us into MF / UC and other problems like AB expropriation. If we don't expand our perception of the world, we are doomed to repats MFs.
PENG2
Peng2
Nonsense: to think that Nfld Power guides the corporate planning of Fortis in any meaningful way?
Answer: ethics of Fortis is largely from their CEO and other key players that have been groomed by Nfld Power experience.
Nonsense: that holding a lot of( instead of a little) Fortis stock means they likely have an agenda?
Answer: Depends if they are in a position to influence Nfld Energy policy, that can benefit Nfld Power/Fortis.
Same as someone owning GM/IBM think they influence the direction of those corporations?
Answer: Not the same at all. A small shareholder can propose things for approval, but can get nowhere unless a majority of shareholders agree. Large shareholders, and those who run the company, often propose voting against such proposals, and they have the clout. Also the vast majority of small shareholders never read or vote at all on issues.
This type of thinking got us into the MF/UC mess?
Answer: Not Holding companies accountable and transparent and honest is the cause of MFs mess. Nfld Power/Fortis could have exposed the flaws and false assumptions, but stayed silent. So an enabler, it seems. But just one of many the same:MUN, govn officials,media, BOT, etc.
This stuff of agenda?
Answer: Many that are biased likely have agendas, especially if they have a financial state. You have admitted having income from both Nalcor and Fortis, and have refused to say you are not paid to comment and influence opinion here. Is it not reasonable to conclude you have an agenda, or promoting an agenda of others?
AG
AG:
You are correct in that I recently reiterated a statement I made in April/May of 2017 before the inquiry was called(and before LeBlanc was named) regarding timing, disclosure and settlement of REAs – essentially the Inquiry/Audits should wait until substantial completion for most effectiveness. Reiterating a previously stated position isn't a 'flip-flop', I won’t pass opinion on a jurist like most are – I said he made a mistake in accordance my previous statement, and I stand by that.
Regarding the corporate finance discussion:
NL Power has 650 employees, ~$40M annual profit and ~$450M in annual revenue; by comparison Fortis has 6000 employees, ~$900M annual profit and ~$7B in annual revenue.
I stand by my comments of 08:59 and think you grossly overestimating the influence NLers, almost nothing NL Power or NL Energy Policy is going to do will affect the year end of Fortis is a meaningful way or significantly enrich a person with Fortis holdings.
I apologize to UG in taking up his Blog space with off-topic conservations, but I think it is important. The thinking that we can affect decisions by multi-nationals, courts, other nations or large corporations is exactly why we are in this position. Traditionally we have conceptually considered ourselves the center of the universe, until we realize our place in Canada and the world we are doomed to repeat fiascos like MF,UC, Abitibi, overfishing, various political failures etc – we need to mature as a population. I am not saying we need to bow down, but we also cant overplay our card either – we have a history of electing politicians that over play our cards and that ends up being our detriment.
PENG2
PENG2accuses anyone who points out he is conflicted (at best) is accused of wearing a tinfoil hat.
PENG2 you have become a troll not worthy of serious consideration.
Always more typical BS from you. That is normal. What is not and sad is to see how UG let you do freely like that…
We know who Bruno is, and his biases, we know where he stands, and only occasionally talks BS, but Peng2, hides in the shadows, I wonder why?
The dysfunction is well mapped here and the willing sycophants named. Those that followed orders and left their ethics and iron rings at the door were/are well rewarded. The few that acted like professionals were vilified, sued and ridiculed. Only the executive council had the power to neuter the regulator, give Nalcor the keys to the treasury, and fabricate the least cost, 6.2 billion lie and find consultants willing to "reverse engineer" the costs to fit the 6.2 billion budget. The responsibility rests solely there.
The other half of the lie remains unexplored. The 12.7 billion estimate is years out of date and several disasters ago (Astaldi, GE, etc.).
We can comfortably estimate that 15 billion is now a conservative cost estimate.
Mr B was a journeyman carpenter at MFs. He did a couple of stints there, and when called back for the third , refused to go.
He told me that he worked on several mega project across Canada including Alberta oil patch. He had never seen such disorganised project as MFs, He said such basic things as drill bits were in short supply, and very few locations of tool power supply locations. So tradesmen were unproductive. And he mentioned of special concrete ferms coming from Germany, I think, and no one knowing how to put it together. He may have been near by when the other form collapsed. He spoke of the many many individuals walking around with white hats, most being Nalcor. 2 or 3 years ago, on hearing this , I asked if he would tell this to the Telegram if they were interested. He said he would.I emailed Ashley of the Telegram… there was no interest. Recently the Inquiry is looking for worked perspectives!
WA
Speaking of journeyman carpenters…………. I bumped into a guy I new from a few years ago when he was an RNC cop. He tells me he retired from RNC and is working at Muskrat. I say well good for you (I guess) and ask him at what ? He tells me carpentry. I say oh a carpenter's helper ??? NO he says – carpentry FOREMAN !!!!! perhaps we now know why they had forms issues….
EPCM services increased almost 300%. !! The World Class managers of the project were way overpaid for what they did. Where have I heard this expression before? RCMP fraud squad listen up! Over seers flogged through Budget Allocations to match up with certificates of payment. Board, Ministers and Deputy Ministers are in compliance with the Integrated team! This still seems to be the order of the day.
Robert @ 19:55:
You reading right? What AE is saying in the 2nd table is what he thinks the original budget should have looked like as compared to the initial budget – I don't see any inference in what the actual budget is.
Read a bit closer and we can debate.
PENG2
OK, 3 columns on the left of Project Cost Management Summary; Base budget, Budget Adjustment, and Current Budget. I assume project budget was approved, (Moneys allocated), under "Original", or Base Budget at $6.202B. How many Budget Adjustments were required by Integrated Manager to get to $10.449B? Who approved additions?
Robert @ 21:13:
What AE did was increase the package costs by 80% based on the job-specific factors 1-11. the increased the EPCM and contingency to an industry percentage or percentage from the GT report.
The amended numbers are what he think the original budget should have looked like and what should have been presented to the public in 2012 – no reference to what the numbers actually are. Nothing here about the number of budget adjustments or who made them.
I said above the factor 1-11 were known before the bidding, so the bid received numbers should have included those factors – a sure way to know what went wrong is to crash the bids received for every package.
PENG2
There is a story in the numbers, and how approvals were granted by the Government VIPs. What do you think the real Budget was at Liberal takeover, (Stan replaced Ed time)? Ball is as much compliant as the Tories. It's still going on folks.
Robert @ 12:20:
A quick summary:
June 2014 – $6.99B
Sept 2015 – $7.65B
Nov 2015 – DB wins election
Apr 2016 – EM out, SM in
June 2016 – $11.4B
June 2017 – $12.7B
Nov 2018 – $12.7B (valid as per oversight committee)
An interesting comparison is the expected package costs vs received – and then crash each package estimate accordingly, this is how to determine where it went wrong.
PENG2
Thanks. Each time the numbers were adjusted, the Board signed off, and passed the paper to Treasury. "Hello Taxpayers", Mayor Wyatt would say.
So PENG2, at the time EM was replaced, you think with a wink and a grin, Ball as official representing the shareholder, signed off on a $5B extra to keep the bleeding going? Had he the courage to shut er down, what would have been the cost penalty? If and when we get a forecast to complete, how big will the change order read? Would he dare tell the ratepayers before the election? Rate mitigation my eye!
Robert @ 14:09:
Absolutely not – the cost didn't magically go from $7.6B to $11.4B between Sept 2015 and June 2016.
I stated then that there was $8B spent, $2B committed and ~$1B remediation (as per DV in Site C) as a starting point in cancelation costs. To date, I still haven't seen anyone cost the FLG default, the NS bloc or other monies required to halt MF – I still believe completion was the only financially reasonable option; lots have said stop, but no one has bothered to do the math.
Same as with the Inquiry – lots want criminal charges but no one bothered to read Gomery to understand why charges cant happen.
PENG2
It's apparent that EM and company were committing contracts and changes, far in advance of Budget allocations. That's complete and utter fraud!
Peng2 says cost of default etc; no one has bothered to do the math.
The one who could do that at the time was Stan Marshall. Peng2 sounds like Dunderdale and John Smith as to MGs alternatives: Nalcor has lots of studies, where is your study to show a better way? Only one maybe was Nfld Power, and they never bothered. Who has 100,000.00 or more in their ass pocket to commission an engineering study? Well, some math has been done to show the math of repaying 12.7 billion, it ain't cheap.
AG
When are we as a society gonna cut the bullshit and send these vile culprits to jail?
They know who they are.
We know who they are.
This bloody MRF scam was a massive bait-and-switch scheme perpetrated upon the NL people. Look at the stress and worry already burdening the people because of this, and the MRF bills haven't even started arriving yet.
And these fuckers are gonna walk away scott free??
Come off it!!
If these culprits don't get put on trial, everything else, the so-called "inquiry", everything is nothing more than farce and whitewash.
Andy Wells said 'The only question for me is whether it rises to the level of criminal neglect,'
He's bloody-well right!!
Yes indeed the "inquiry" is farce and whitewash. It is designed to protect the guilty, no blame can be apportioned by the design of the farce.
Your outrage is well justified. The sycophants, our PENG2 is a classic example, still obfuscate, throw smoke and justify what a fine project it is (or don't stop until the spending on the MF monster is finished, never mind the spur is likely to fail).
It is up to outraged ratepayers to demand action now!
Surely it rises to the level of criminal deceit and criminal intent, doesn't it?
scott free ? Well Scott is anything but FREE, in fact Scott maybe one of these culprits you mention.
Who is Scott you say ? Well is the the MF Project Manager. We will hear abut him soon.
Some may find the results of the Whistleblower's analysis shocking, but anyone who has worked in the energy industry will attest to the fact that "hiding" costs is standard in this business. Energy companies raise capital based on cost estimates that must be competitive with other investment opportunities. As an engineer with 30+ years in the energy industry, I was party to many "low-ball" estimates, developed at the behest of senior management, to ensure a capital project would get the green light from overseas management. Why would anyone do that? Well, without project approval, everyone goes home and starts looking for another job. An understandable motivation, is it not?
So, a project gets approved, the cost naturally goes way up, a post-appraisal is held, and everyone agrees that these "lessons learned" will never be repeated, and…. the process repeats itself. CEO's and CFO's get upset again, but nothing really changes.
So, if the motivation to low-ball cost estimates to ensure a project goes ahead is, for a private corporation, job security, what could be the motivation to low-ball an estimate for a publicly-funded project like Muskrat Falls? Consider the level of secrecy and the level of effort expended by Nalcor and government officials to cover up the problems at Muskrat. This, combined with revelations about companies with ties to senior Nalcor management getting work without bid, suggests that, perhaps, a small group of entitled individuals have lined their pockets in such a fashion that Wade Locke's extra few bucks over the years look like scratch lottery ticket winnings.
"Follow the money" is Mueller's mantra south of the border. Sadly, this commission will likely not be allowed to unravel the spiderweb of contracts, subcontracts, sub-subcontracts and payments to related companies of (it appears to be) Nalcor and government officers.
Government in Newfoundland & Labrador is much like governance at the RCMP. The structure is so corrupt, so broken, so rife with "do me a favour and I'll do one for you". Your average Newfoundlander would be appalled at how much sway that past leaders (Williams, Tobin, etc.) still have over decisions made in the province, including who gets contracts. But how can you prove it? You can't. It's Fairmont hotel bar chit-chat amongst people "in the know" who feign disgust at the goings-on, but who also understand that by speaking up, their businesses will be ruined.
Good luck, Newfoundland & Labrador. Take pride in being the one true oligarchy of Canada.
Well, that's a mouthful from an engineer in the know. And ,as to the RCMP, how productive was their investigations in the Hickman 100 million equipment case? How much money recovered? How many with jail time?
What was the cost as to harassment of female RCMP officers. And now the case of a doctor for decades sexual assault of female recruits.
If they do that do their own, where is justice for the AJ?
Follow the money is the USA way, not the Canadian or Nfld way.
I am going out on my limb again today, and if I get it chopped off, I don't fall, I just fly on. No reputation to protect, no credentials to be questioned, no hurt feelings, and no pie on my face. I may be wrong, or missed something, as I have not followed every word that PENG2 has written, and as a matter of fact I am unable to follow every word or understand every line he writes. But I don't feel alone in that some of the engineers, on this blog, don't always follow his line or understand exactly what he is saying. Is he an electrical, mechanical, civil, chemical, or IT engineer??? As I said maybe he has already told us and I just missed it. Is he a self taught, an internet self taught, an office engineer, or hung around around with engineers long enough that some rubbed off, is he an engineer at all. Does he wear the ring? I take nothing away from him, he is an intelligent guy, he knows politics, he knows recent history, so is he just smart like a fox. I won't go as far as Bruno and call him a troll..yet. If I am totally wrong, well I always apologize, I have no ego to protect or lug around. What do others think ask average Joe.
AJ have you noticed that PENG2 never educates or informs, he just dazzles with his bullshit. Don't be misled or drawn into any rabbit holes. If he does not clarify a point he is just full of bull.
The public interest has not been well served or honestly served by the falsification of reports and estimates by Nalcor officials and the false spreading of information and cheer leading of this project by informed elected politicians and government officials and somehow they all must be held accountable. This project will be a millstone around our necks and the necks of our children and grandchildren for a long time to come. These people need to pay for their crimes against the people but how?? The inquiry is good beginning but should not be the end for those responsible.
i picture PENG2 as like the Russians influencing the AMerican elections on social media. He seems to have an answer for everything, so maybe an army of aids to back him up. It would maybe take Mueller to out him.
UG is the enemy of Nalcor, and those that supported Mfs, and those who now run Nalcor. So how to influence UG to soften or slow the Shadow Inquiry? Be subtle, show expertise and knowledge and at times flatter others, but also counter their arguments that don't accept that the new Nalcor is on the right track. A more shrewd version of John Smith, me thinks, but: when cornered, attack your enemy with the TIN FOIL HAT mantle. A sure giveaway. Not one negative word about Fortis or Nfld Power,or Stan Marshall, and portray the old Nalcor as bad, but the new Nalcor under new leadership is on the right track.
I picture PENG2 as hovering constantly for every word , comment and new piece on UG, part of a PR Plan.
How does he get time to earn a dollar from engineering analysis, when so engaged with UG? Unless his analysis is limited to what we see here, and on many subjects, expertise everywhere. One could almost say he is world class, whatever that means?
No surprises here;
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/liberals-pcs-statistical-tie-1.4998339
With all the findings from the General Inquiry, the media, this Blog, the NL voter is committed again to elect the same gang.
Time for the MFCCC to become a political force; There just has to be options presented at the next elections. "Government by the people, for the people, etc."
The AE has summarized almost four months of Inquiry into one easily understandable document. It is clear from the Inquiry and from the AE's analysis, that no one, absolutely no one, checked the estimate. A four billion dollar understatement is not a mistake. It is a strategic business decision, made by Ed Martin to secure project approval.
Though Justice LeBlanc has said many times " This is not a trial, no one will be found guilty," with evidence of blatant negligence of duty both by Nalcor and government officials, avoidance of responsibility will be increasingly difficult. Once the Inquiry is completed, the next step the public will demand will be the prosecution of those responsible. For a government that does not follow this to it's logical conclusion it will be political suicide.
Be sure of one thing – Ed and his buds from Petro Canada got exactly what they wanted (taxpayer be dammed) They NEEDED a PROJECT as they were all soon losing their jobs at Petro. Now imagine a PROJECT at home that they controlled? Now there is some real money to be made.
The inquiry will not report, by design, until after the next election. Between no report until too late and " This is not a trial, no one will be found guilty," the inquiry has descended into farce.
For more than 24 PENG2 remains silent. Has his bubble been burst. Has he gone down his rabbit hole, when will he come up for air. Is he a member of the coalition. I once incorrectly called MA an engineer, and he promptly reminded me that he was not. PENG2 has proclaimed loudly to all ensundry that he is an engineer, but refuses to tell us what type of engineer. Where did he graduate from, the local university, or the mainland, or maybe the US of A. In referring to the by election of Dinn he asked who he was as he was not from this area, did he meant the Avalon, or the province. What's his CV, how many maga projects has he worked on, and where. Is he from the oil industry. Is he from the hydro industry. Is he an engineer at all, or just a self proclaimed engineer. Or maybe a PR engineer as he works for nalcor. Maybe he will be called as a witness, or volunteer to be a witness at the inquiry, then all will be revealed. MRs Vardy and Penny volunteered to be witness as naysayers of muskrat maybe he will volunteer as a proponent of muskrat, as the PR engineer. Cheers, Joe blow.
AJ(I think it is you) @ 08:58:
I have explained my CV here before – maybe a review is inorder for you, since you also seem to imply that I am pro-MF and mislead others as to the meaning of statements I make.
I have posed a number of questions and points that no one here seems to want to address, I will review a few:
1) The effect of Gomery and how it would impact laying of charges as results of Inquiry findings
2) The timing of the Inquiry and effect on REAs etc. I also said we needed something more along the lines of Berger, or at least Charbonneau – I am not sure a 2yr inquiry is going to get what we need as a population
3) Just how can a Fortis shareholder use NL Power and NL Energy policy to enrich themselves
4) I went through the CARE program with MA a few months ago (a painful process, only for him to finally admit he had no knowledge of it); I have also clearly explained my professional responsibilities/working arrangements on more than 1 occasion
I have no issue being challenged – but there doesn’t seem to be many provide references/quotes/links to supporting information other than me. Take issue with my opinion, fine – but at least backup your position, backing up your decision isn’t simply saying someone is a shill.
In the meantime, WA and MA haven’t been here in a few days either – did they also retreat to their rabbit holes? At least be coherent and make some sense.
PENG2
It is AJ, average Joe, or Joe blow which ever you prefer. Hoops….sorry I missed your CV, (professional qualifications, work experience, past involvement with nalcor etc.) so would not really expect you to lay it all out again just for my benefit. Maybe others that can recall it might mention it briefly. Yes, your statements and comments lead me to believe that you are pro-MF, and that is just fine, you have every right to be, but when you admits it in one statement and deny it in the next then that is confusing. Of course one might be pro muskrat on certain points and not agree with other aspects. As for my main concern is you tend to speak as an authority on muskrat and related topics and I have no utterly idea who you are and what credentials and experience you bring to the discussion. Would appreciate if you could occasionally advise those that read your comments or engage in a discussion with you. Most on this blog do not tend to speak with authority, just express their opinion, as I normally do. So if you tend to speak with authority and accompanying knowledge then it would be proper to know from whence that information comes, give an explanation, rather than state and run. As for giving a long list of references, you can keep that for yourself, most here are well read. Will just mention, your comment on WA and MA, but am sure they are quite capable of speaking for themselves, but they were not being questioned and called to account for their discussions in the past few days. Still hoping to see you before the inquiry. Cheers, average Joe.
AJ @ 11:22:
Show me 1 comment I ever made that is pro-MF – that would be my challenge to you, or anyone else for that matter. I am a realist and work forward from today since we cannot change the past, and I am not political – never have been political.
I have however said complete to avoid default (and that is based on a FLG argument that no one else bothered to refute)- I never made a supporting statement for MF or it underlying principles.
PENG2
Sorry PENG2, who was the idiot that said finish building MF and when my paycheque ends kill the project (and hope we have not killed hundreds filling the reservoir).
I mistook you for the lunatic that expected us to buy that advice from a shill for MF.
Last Comment WA not here in the last few days: I have commented twice as WA, which I often do, on Jan 28, and most know me by my initials.
Points 1 , believe PENG2 said he was geotechnical engineer, civil?
Point 2, comparing inquiries : I thought if like Berger, MFs would be shut down, and comparing Charbonneau, the scallywags here would be jailed. But I never got into it with PENG2
Point 3: I disagree with PENG2
Point 4: What is CARE program?
As to AJ: PENG2 intended to contact me and also do a cold eyes review of my minisplit monitoring, would have been useful now for Synapse, but maybe he has been too busy, as this never happened. Also I asked if he read my Telegram pieces from 2012, and his thoughts on CDM , again now relevant as to Synapse. But no response. Thought PENG2 would have a lot to say on Synapse, but nothing? But he has responded on many other points. I too thought he might submit comments to the Inquiry, but never it seems. He seems to have a wide interest and devoted much time on UG, On technical matter I agree on much with him, not all, other matters less so.
I look forward to meeting him as expected last year.
Winston Adams
You just made a pro-MF statement, and have made it many times, "complete muskrat". You wanted to complete muskrat regardless of cost. Most that oppose muskrat, have said it should have been paused, and re-evaluated, both the power house and the transmission line, and then a decision made, when govt. changed. I have asked you before what's the difference between default before completion or after completion, or failure to complete. It would have saved us from borrowing another 3$ billion and counting. You always throw up the FLG, with no explanation except the guarantee means we must complete, wether we default or not. Explain in detail the pros and cons, from your expert knowledge and superior credentials to this average Joe and others. And an answer like read it is not good enough, as I told you before, I have, but maybe not digested it like you. Thanks, average Joe.
WA @ 11:43:
Point 2: Charges were not recommended be either Inquiry. Berger occurred before the MGP started, so while the issues are similar, there are differences too.
Point 3: I would be interested in seeing your math on that, NL Power profits being ~5% of Fortis profit indicates that even if the PUB 2x the NL Power profit to 13% that the dividend return would still only be 8-12cents per unit. NL Power profit is based on expenses, not the rate charged to consumers – as seen recently, the total dividend to Fortis holders equates to 1-2 good days on the market.
Point 4: CARE was a program used by Grant Thorton last year to solicit confidential comments and information for the Inquiry audit. Check the Inquiry website.
Knowing you reputation, I would have seen your article in 2012 – I have no memory of it, so wont comment on its thoroughness as you asked. For the same reason, I wouldn't dispute your claims on MSHP work – I accept on face value.
PENG2
AJ @ 12:00:
You need to quote the complete statement – it was 'complete to avoid default', otherwise it comes back as weasel words like a politician. The impacts of default are essential when considering default – no one seems to want to discus that factor.
A direct quote from this blog in response to Robert (the same statements I have made almost 10 times for which no evidence refuting was ever posted):
Robert @ 14:09:
Absolutely not – the cost didn't magically go from $7.6B to $11.4B between Sept 2015 and June 2016.
I stated then that there was $8B spent, $2B committed and ~$1B remediation (as per DV in Site C) as a starting point in cancelation costs. To date, I still haven't seen anyone cost the FLG default, the NS bloc or other monies required to halt MF – I still believe completion was the only financially reasonable option; lots have said stop, but no one has bothered to do the math.
Same as with the Inquiry – lots want criminal charges but no one bothered to read Gomery to understand why charges cant happen.
PENG2
I post links, cite documents etc to support my claims – saying something without proof is an opinion, being able to back it up is key.
PENG2
Citing "proof" without making the case is pompous puffery. What about Gomery precludes charges (assuming Dudley and Co. are paying attention)?
Let's see what Grant Thornton has to say about shady contract admin practices. Contract commitments and payments, ahead of budget allocations is fraud. The Board aided and abetted the CM in doing this.
Lol, "weasel words like a politician". Guess I am not the only one that uses these kind of words. You say, "lots have said stop", muskrat. And guess that included me and many others. But, no we have not said that. We said, "pause muskrat". Re-evaluate, then make the right decision, on both the powerhouse and the transmission line. You glaze over the 8$, 2$ etc. Spent as if that were carved in stone. That was a reason to "pause" to see in fact what were the numbers, who had authorized them without authority, and do the math then, as you call it, and see what were the financial reasonable options. It was irresponsible to just grab a new CEO, another 3$ billion, because someone quoted the numbers you have, and say giver, and finish strong. That's where you and I and many others disagree. We had a chance to possibly save ourselves from the worst case senerio, but nalcor guys like you prevented it. The same kind of thinking that authorized billions and spent hundreds of millions on site pre sanction. Whose money do you think you were squandering without a second taught of the price of oil had dropped, or "what if", the cost is low balled and the actual cost doubles. No time for that kind of humbug, said a lot of hell bent blinded by $$$ signs in the ass pockets of a few Grinches. That's why "pause" was required, rather than giver says Joe blow.
AJ @ 12:59:
First off, I am not a 'Nalcor guy' – review what I have posted about my CV.
Disagree with me is your right – but I did more than 'just skim over' reports to get the jist. If you think you have a better case on the financials (or any other statement I have made for that matter), post it with backup and we can debate.
PENG2
PENG2, whether I or someone raised the issue of Nfld Power or Fortis providing assistance for low income ratepayers going forward, as to mitigation for MFs boondoggle?
I get with my power bill flyers referring to their charitable donation, but usually connected with fund raising efforts, so not knowing what is corporate or from customers. Like 4 million overall for Cancer over 16 years, so about 250,000 per year.
Can you advise what percentage of revenue or net earnings Nfld Power and also Fortis donate to charitable causes? Does it meet or exceed your expectations as compared to other similar sized private companies? Does it factor into your choice of being a shareholder, and the idea of giving back from one's success? As mentioned before, I do manage an account for a relative that hold some Fortis shares, but personally I am critical of them on EE policy, CDM, that makes for higher customer power bills.
UG has commented on Nalcor buying favour with towns with donations as to MFs, which is essentially public money.
Winston
Peng2, You say you would have seen my article in 2012- I have no memory of it, so wont comment on its thoroughness as asked.
Suggest it might have left a poor impression if you have no memory of it. But even so, I thought it would be of interest to you now, to review, to compare to Synapse mitigation analysis? You have stated you accepted the value of CDM and EE, but now, I suggest, it is more difficult to apply as to policy decisions going forward, there are many variables.
As to MSHP monitoring and performance : your prior interest for a cold eyes review was good I thought, especially since MUN engineers said to me that high performance claims for this technology was a MYTH. Evidenced based data is usually accepted if peer reviewed. In that respect, I was less interest in the performance being accepted by you "on face value". It's importance to heating for our island power situation was the point for 2012, and of suggestion to you since, and now we see Synapse needing to investigate such things for CCMSHP phase 2. One would thing MUN would have shown interest and would have had lots of reliable data to show them, or Nfld Power, and so not needing PENG2 to verify or say accept it on face value?
Winston
WA @ 14:!4:
There is a big distinction to be made and most don’t fully realize it – Nalcor/NL Hydro and NL Power are 2 very different entities. NL Power profit is not related to the price we as consumers pay for power – the cost of wholesale power from NL Hydro is a pass through on the cost sheets. The other thing is, even if NL Power customer consumption decreases by 20%, I am not sure that NL Power costs are reduced (and thus reduced profits) – there is a certain level of costs required to provide say 1300MHhr and the cost is most probably the same as for 1800MWhr for peak loads (an interesting debate for us to have). Do you really think that NL Power / NL Energy policy can substantially affect the Fortis bottom line?
My gut tells me Fortis does OK with charitable donations, but I have no basis for that other than gut. I do remember donations for the Rooms, Ronald MacDonald house, Salvation Army etc – maybe someone else has done a comparison? I knew Prof B sr very well – I do have a soft spot for NL success stories like Fortis.
PENG2
I am aware that Nfld Power is now only about 5 % of Fortis. But all companies under Fortis are expected to pull their weight to achieve their profit goals. Also Fortis, my impression, mostly expanded into areas where regulatory oversight offered a better chance of profit. That is the nature of business, and much the fault of MFs boondoggle, poor regulatory oversight.
I was somewhat stunned to see the companies supporting Ronald Mc Donald House, where there is no nutrition plan for the food they have there. Worse still to see no nutrition plan at the Janeway Childrens cancer clinic. Proper nutrition is essential for good cancer care, and so much junk food. What could one expect from McDonalds? And maybe the sponsors ignorant of that aspect? Poor nutrition at schools was one thing, but for children with cancer! I was considering donating, but changed my mind, after a tour a year ago, and first question: Is there a food nutrition plan ? Answer : NO. At the janeway, where I had a grandson with cancer, in less than an hour I witnessed 3 parties bring or promote junk food.
Winston
WA @ 16:11:
I wont debate the nutrition or food value at our healthcare facilities – agree with you. However, I would say that monies for the facility operation and establishment is very valuable.
I still don't understand how someone with Fortis shares can be enriched by NL Power profits or NL Energy policy changes unless the priofit margin is raised above 6.5%. Currently, NL Power profit doesn't go up even if MF causes our energy rates to go to $1/kWhr – you have insight I don't?
PENG2
Peng2, Agree that such facilities is very valuable, nutrition aside.
More at issue: As to power companies, I think profit is tied to revenue generated by power sold to the customers. Generally for decades power sales has increased and revenues and profit increase, though percentage of profit on sales may not increase. Maybe I am wrong?
Imprudent costs can be declared by a regulator which may alter profits in a given year.
My point , and my experience is that Nfld Power has very much been in control of CDM and EE, and have always wanted such measures to a minimum, and this is detrimental to customer power bills and their CDM measures are poor choices, and actually misleads customers, and they skim considerable management expense. But it keeps revenue up instead of going down, which I think helps profits. It is called growth. All firms wants to increase growth and revenue, and hopefully profits. For power companies , regulators and government policies keeps this in check, or should, is that not so?
Winston
Following up on Bruno's comment at 7.07am, January 31st, 2019 – we must not forget the enormous power of public opinion, public protest and public demand. Much the same way this Inquiry got started, through marches and protests, the government caved into public pressure to have a forensic audit and this Inquiry.
Back in December 2012, at the time of project sanction, no one in power would have thought that, seven years later, they will be hauled into a public inquiry, and humiliated into admission of negligence and incompetence.
The next step in the chain of events, is the prosecution of those found egregiously negligent of duty. This conclusion is inevitable.
Now you confuse me with your shilling PENG2! You place responsibility with the impotent/incompetent cops. When you and Dudley regain consciousness give us a whistle and outline any success the cops have had prosecuting white collar crime.
Until then wear the MF shill proudly!
To PENG2.
I have no recollection of ever saying anything about CARE and knew nothing about GT using such a program.
The only CARE I have heard of is a group formed by MUN's economic department —-"(something) Applied (something) Economics" — CARE.
Also, about a year or more ago, I think it was PENG2 that said he was going to review the concerns I raised (on my website) about the North Spur. He never did.
I seem to recall that too, maybe about the high slope of the area near the downstream big hole as high risk area for failure? Peng2 saying he would assess MA's analysis.
AG
MA @ 15:23:
Go back and check your post of 18-Sept-2018, at 13:00 – it was part of the discussion you and I had regarding the posting of exhibits on the Inquiry website.
Also, I did also tell you that I did look over the downstream hole – there was insufficient data for me to make anything of a decent analysis, covered in the North Spur Geotech investigation conservation regarding Prof B paper and the Peer Review discussion.
Let me know if there is anything you want me to reiterate.
PENG2
PENG2
Re CARE.
You said "4) the audit report isn't completed yet, the Grant Thorton CARE submissions only closed 31-Aug-2018 – see 1 above, a report will be tabled to all parties simultaneously, nothing is being hidden."
And I did ask — "What is "CARE"? That's it.
Re the NS,
I think you said (paraphrased) that you would review my concerns in some further detail and get back to me —- you do not think you did.
Should have read 'I do not think you did'.
@13:28 PENG2 I don't think the numbers you supplied are worth the effort to type them. Where did they come from, are they Nalcor's? As for the 8$, 2$ and 1$ billions mentioned, what date are they effective, and where did these numbers come from. I can't supply you a list of numbers, as there are no reliable numbers available, not even contingency numbers after two months of testimony. The only solid numbers I can quote is from the inquiry, CD signed for 6.2$ billion, (let's forgo the 3 or 4 hundred million for contingenties for now that was not established at the inquiry if that was included or not included and known by whom) and she said she would not sign for a penny more. However, she did say she signed for monies for muskrat pre saction for the work site, seems several hundred million. The only other number that I am aware of is after SM became CEO, in 2016, was 12.7$ billion and that include interest. So how did we get from 6.2 billion (plus interest to 12.7 billion. KD resigned a year (or was it 13 months) after sanction, in January, 2014. Did the two premiers before Ball, Marshall and Davis sign for more money for MF, or did Ball sign for it all. How can money be spent with no authorization from the govt. in power. Trumpie can't get the money, (1$ billion or 5$ billion) to build his wall. Congress has to approve it plus Trumpie has to sign it. How can we build a dam or muskrat when it exceeds the 6.2$ billion that KD government approved and she signed for. I guess that is phase two of the inquiry. So the basic question, is after spending, committed, redemitation up to 6.2$ billion, who authorized spending etc. up to 11.5 or 12.7 billion. I say that's when MF should have been paused, to re-evelaute, and if the decision to proceed then authorize the money by government and signed by the premier. Maybe that should have been the Marshall or Davis government. But, you say "No pause" proceed to completion without authorization of funding and then decide if we want to default. Think Trumpie would be much happier under our system, he would have his wall built now, regardless of cost or approval. Seems the thinking by nalcor and contractors was 6 more billion of public money is only a drop in the bucket, where as in the most powerful nation on earth is brought to a screeching hault with government shut down, and no one getting paid. That is the fundemental questions, not how do we deal with the FLG or the contractors. First things first. PAUSE: RE-EVALUATE: DECISIONS: FLG: CONTRACTORS: one step at a time. Could have killed it with the first FLG, plus what we had wasted on the project. As for power for NS, maybe the decision would have been complete transmission line, buy power from UC to give to NS. but that's all under the heading of DECISIONS. We would have been left with our cheep paid for reliable island power. And figure out from that what we need to get from the Atlantic Accord to pay for muskrat. Cheers, Joe blow.
MA @ 16:57:
Maybe keep reading a bit more. So I said the submission date '…only closed…' – you didn't bother to check the Inquiry website yourself? So, you asked about it @ 13:00, then considering my response at 13:34 doesn't qualified as 'recollection' – really, that is worse that being a politician….
Go back and check the conservation for your answer on the hole – I told you I didn't have the info for an analysis – in the same discussion I questioned Dr B and the peer review panel on their findings. I maintain there is not enough geotechnical data for a responsible decision there (or I at least I haven't seen it) – and I don't think either Dr B or the peer panel claimed to have reviewed actual data.
PENG2
AJ @ 17:05:
For the cost increases, check my response above to Robert – I laid out the increase history of MF 1-2 days ago. These numbers are directly from news releases – believe those numbers or not, at least I am providing something.
I have never suggested MF was good – just that once we started the rules of the game were changed. Don't blame the messenger, I am sorry for the 70% now realize what they were promised isn't what they got.
Again, my name is on reports say the Anglo-Saxon route was a bad idea in the 90s. Not many have a MF opposition going back as far as I do.
All I ask is to quote me correctly – that is all.
PENG2
A link to the 1990's report please PENG2.
No link to your early opposition to MF PENG2.
What qualifies you to assess Dr B and his grad students? An Anon self proclaimed "expert" dissing Dr B's work and the horrified federal scientists who warned of the instability of the spur is an out and out fraud.
PENG2 you are this blogs John Smith. You proclaim expertise that you cannot justify, rant and self promote with pompous puffery to deflect questions of your competence to even wipe your own arse.
Who are you apart from lying about your credentials to diss critics and promote the MF rat of a scam of a project?
Can't say you're not blunt, Bruno. There are similarities between Peng2 and John Smith.
On technical matters he seems to agree with WA a lot, but where not he seems to avoid the differences, especially as to Fortis and Nfld Power and CDM etc.and the need to keep MFs going to completion but not operate!
WA posted his opinion on Fortis and Nfld power @ 22;19 above, and I expected a reply from Peng2 in defence of Fortis/Nfld Power, but only silence. maybe he is taking a breather?
PF
Also, Peng2 says he is but a messenger. That raises the question; Messenger for whom? Nalcor, Fortis/Nfld Power, some other ? One might assume his own personal message,which we hope ws the case, but he fused to deny he is paid to comment here!
PF
AJ @ 17:05:
No matter if you don't like my numbers – we will leave that for a minute.
In 2016, MF was about 2/3 complete – using the current $12.7B estimate, that gives about $8.5B spent. If we consider typical construction contract being cash-positive for contractors (I outlined this 2yrs ago also) my $10B number is pretty close.
Now considering that David Vardy said about $1B to remediate Site C in BC 2 yrs ago and that MF was much further along, I say as a minimum $1.
We still haven't touched the FLG default, NS bloc or other monies – I am figuring my claim of '…complete to avoid default…' is pretty sound.
You have a better argument, and this doesn't even use my 'insider' knowledge?
PENG2
PENG2; I for one do appreciate your insights into the intrigue and the possible magnitude of number crunches, involved in this "shadow inquiry". The continued absence of hard data on the contract admin activity, (soon to be aired by Grant Thornton, we hope), has become problematic. The devil they say is the detail. Your comments, though sometimes provocative, (like my own and others), keeps the Blog alive and somewhat informative. On with the GI.
Soooooo PENG2 you have been opposed to MF since the 1990's and yet you want MF to be completed (and then abandoned).
Things are getting curiouser and curiouser Alice!
PENG2,
I have read (and perhaps written) thousands of comments since 2011 on various websites and on hundreds or even thousands of MF topics.
I wrote 'CARE' one time and did not follow up on the issue.
Enough said.
On January 30 @0851 I commented and again January 31 @08:58 regarding PENG2 apparent silence. In my first comment I gave a partical in advance apology if I was wrong in my understanding and questioning of his credentials and CV work experience. Subsequent from comments from yesterday I have learned that he has real credentials as an engineer and possibly a long CV of work experience in hydro. So I can now easily apologize, as I din't have a large ego to scote and lug around, for questioning his credentials and CV in the hydro industry. I always try and call them as I see them and when I make a mistake then I apologize especially if it reflects personally on the individual and unwarranted. Of course that being said I stand by all my other comments and opinions regarding our discussions and comments. Thanks, Joe blow, average Joe, AJ.
So, Joe, what of the question :is he paid to comment and influence opinion on this blog? He did not answer that, and I assume the answer is yes. He refers to his original disclosure, which maybe suggests an answer? Maybe Peng2 can give the date of his comments that may shed light?
I agree that he is likely an engineer and well informed, but is he like the Russians, as to methods here? Does he have an agenda, complete and not operate etc, but gives no solution to what we do going forward.
PF
Agree with your concerns PF. Think he has admitted he is employed part time, or does work for nalcor, so maybe that is part of his work, a contributor to this blog on behalf of nalcor. I went mainly with WA when he mentioned that he had posted his credentials as a geotechnical, civil engineer. Also he posted that he goes back to Dr. Breneau Sr 's days and opposed the maritime route back in the 90ies. So I take him at his word. But nice to ask for postings especially if I am not the only one that missed it. Cheers, average Joe.
Peng2 gone silent? Is he feeling the heat? He has not responded to several comments put to him. Maybe he is actually doing some geotechnical work this morning, and earning an honest dollar?
Premier of PEI recognizes the benefits of the Atlantic Grid;
https://www.sackvilletribunepost.com/news/regional/pei-premier-takes-atlantic-energy-grid-proposal-to-trudeau-279983/
Shouldn't he and the newly elected Irving Engineer Premier, have a common interest here. Seems that PEI has not kept up with this Blog, and the dim prospects of Muskrat power.
What a tool Google is. I contemplated going for a walk, but was aware of the high winds. It is -7C, but -19 with the wind chill.
I see a link to a type of earth quake cause by the polar vortex now in NA with record low temperature, as water freezes in the soil and expands and pops, a mini quake.
Then another link as to EV, electric vehicle use, which reminds me of Synapse and also of PENG2 and Bruno and AJ.
PENG2 is an investor in Fortis , mostly old technology generation. Bruno a fanatic for solar and wind and storage.
Should one invest on Bruno's vision or PENG2 investment choice?
EVs using all electric and renewable or oil and coal generation?
Is Synapse's ideas for electricification for transport here sound? Or PENG2 who worries about EV's low range and maybe just ok for small cars?
Who is right , the iron ring guy or the weed smoker?
I'm leaning with one of them, and may invest. But not a rush.
Winston
Poor ole UG and his blog, comments seem to have been taken over by the clown squad. Aside from their continuous nattering about nothing (George Castanza would've loved them), their constant braying about others such as PENG2, Etienne, Heracles, etc. seems to a plot to drive any thoughtful and dissenting opinion from the blog. They are like the Borg and in their hive mind there are a few, but constant, thoughts. 1) Stephen Harper was an evil genius who gave us the poisoned chalice of the FLG to screw L'il Trump and NL. 2) The Feds have to pay off our 7$ billion and counting loan. 3) Emera has to walk away from the "links" and give them to us. 4) PEGNL is an evil cartel consisting of dishonest professionals who have all made out like bandits from MF. 5) MF was never wanted by NL'ers and they never supported it in numbers around 80% and never voted for KD's government.
Sorry guys, but the jig will soon be up (say after the election of the next zombie provincial government). There ain't no Santa Claus coming to town on the evening stage. Continue your raging against the dying light, it might keep you warm for a time after the juice goes.
Yes, you've hit a nail on the head there bud… the non-stop, incessant, perpetual, chronic, never-ending bullshit emanating from this small group of malcontents, misfits and nothing-better-to-doers has entirely sucked all the oxygen sustaining enlightened, original commentary from this now-wretched blog.
It's come to he point that I can no longer abide the tiresome routine of the same old bullshit commentary… it's become nothing more than uninspired permutations of the same mundane theme.
UG should get in there and haul out the editing blade and try and cut thru all those steaming pies of festering BS.
But of course he's probably got better things to do, like spend some quality time with the grand-kids, or go for a walk in the woods on a clear, star-lit night and marvel at the existence of it all.
Not poor at all the old UG. He was told about it by all the ones who left his blog and why. Still, he chose to keep the haters and stay a hater himself knowing that would push out the ones with more rational approach. A weak one will do all he can to be surrounded by weak and weaker not to be threaten. Only a strong leader is seeking to be surrounded by strong people.
The weak looking for the weak and the mass approving the approach. No wonder NL is the way it is…
Etienne, Rather than stepping into the light you step backward into anonymity with the same old canards pushing out the "rational" approach.
Do you have any substantive things to say about MF or the politics in NL?
enter Hobo Bruno, king of the clowns
next up AJ/Waldo
enter Hobo Bruno, king of the clowns
next up AJ/Waldo, queen of the twits
To Bruno and other interested parties: For the record, every single comment I have left here at Uncle Gnarley's was left under the name "Etienne", without exception, so if, Bruno, you want to argue against the anonymous commentator(s) at 21:02, 20:55 and 17:07, argue against them, and not against me: I did not write those comments.
And also for the record, Bruno, I believe I have offered more substantive things about MF and NL than you have on this blog. I shan't debate the issue with you: other readers of this blog will be better judges of the truth of the matter than either of us.
There is no doubt Nalcor Team wanted & pushed the Project, by doing so they had the job security & were highly paid plus for doing such poor jobs got bonuses. No body ever questioned, why bonuses were given out when nothing in the Project worked as planned or projected.
I wonder is as consumers on the Island we jointly refuse to buy & pay for any of the MF energy
I would suggest that the MRF bait-and-switch scheme was a means for these bloody culprits to get at a slice of the offshore oil royalties pie. Turning the project into a fiasco by delivering it over-budget and over-schedule served to further enrich these bastards.
I also suspect the results of this inquiry will demand that a criminal investigation be initiated.
The ratepayers will need electricity, so how can consumers simply refuse to buy the MRF juice? Unless a boycott was somehow organized. And considering the colossal apathy of NLers, that would be exceedingly difficult to accomplish. Indeed, these culprits knew that the apathy and gullibility of the NL people was vital to carrying out their vile scheme.
However, perhaps there is grounds for rate-payers launching a class-action lawsuit against Nalcor, and both the provincial and federal governments.
It is quite evident that these entities have harmed ratepayers with negligence (quite possibly criminal on the part of Nalcor, certainly dishonesty and deception) as well as absence of due diligence on the part of governments' duty to protect citizens from harm. Therefore there may be cause to launch a legal challenge so as to address this harm.
wow, you've proved what Anon Feb 1 17:07 said about you…
Nalcor, Gov NL and Gov CAN all in it together to fleece poor ole gullible NLer's.. scheme was even meant to get the oil revenues from Granny's hands.. wake up, smell the coffee, it's over, we're done and we did by ourselves
I hate this victim shaming! Citizens were lied to about everything, the need, the relative costs, the urgency and when that wasn't enough the voices of caution were attacked, ridiculed and marginalized.
Oh those were the good old days, being sued by the emperor!
The people were deceived and their interests were left unprotected with the legislating out of existence the PUB's mandate. There could quite possibly be legal ramifications for any such acts of deception and dereliction of duty.
To conclude that "we did it to ourselves" is just another lamentable manifestation of the apathy and gullibility referred to above.
I'd say the "emperor" has very little remorse what he has inflicted upon the 500K people of this province. His puppets, namely KD, EM and others, whether we're being told about it or not were all being told what to do and how to do it and money was not a problem.This "advice" was being given long after he had authority to give any advice –period. His monumental ego and his relentless quest to "sock it to QC" has pretty well ruined this province and to listen to his public rants about how good MF is would make one want to puke
OMG don't you people get it .. L'il Trump was elected twice and KD once with big majorities.. the population was 80% in favor of MF, and I bet you all cheered when the L'il Trump came down the airport escalator yelling "we got it, we got it".. tell me you didn't vote for L'il Trump… so "legislating out of existence" was done by the same little asshat that you all voted for… can you sue yourselves for being so fucking stupid?
The only kind of satisfaction, twisted as it is, that one can derive from this tragedy of incompetence and malfeasance is that Harper got one over on Williams… Williams went from being the Jesus Christ of NL to the accursed devil incarnate in just a few short years, as a result of the Harper loan guarantee.
The dimwitted partisan fools and dupes associated, such as the colossaly naive Dunderdale and the shrill blow-hard Kennedy were just so much collateral damage, but Harper managed to inflict a permanent, un-washable stink on them as well.
If you entered into a contract with a real estate developer to build you a house for $500,000 and then, after going over-budget and over-schedule due to his own incompetence and deceptions, the developer comes back to you demanding another $500,000 to cover the actual $1,000,000 cost of your house, do you really believe you're legally obligated to pay up?
Get real.
anon@10:50
Given the fact that we were lied to left, right, and centre and were told that we had a bright future and MF was badly needed with no other alternative, who were we to do anything about it. It was rammed down out throats after we elected them. We were duped!
Question! To the poor souls who lost their life savings in the Bernie Madoff scam given that he was well known and respected and no warning signs that he was "sockin' to them".—would you also post disrespectful comments to them? Get a life seeing you know it all anyways! Christ almighty!!!
in this case the developer and the home-owner are one and the same.. so yes your are obligated to pay
Wayne @11:26
it's called buyer beware.. we were duped three times (three majority governments remember?) isn't there an "old saying, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me".. we didn't want to hear anything but that "we were world class", we were stupid
@ no… don't be so daft.
The "developer" is in fact testifying at the MRF inquiry.
and the developer is Nalcor? and Nalcor is a crown corporation? and a crown corporation is government? and government is you????
And are you going to blame the entire population of the USA for the Vietnam War, when it was Johnson, or all Americans for the Iraq War, and all Americans because there is an idiot in the White House. And all Germans for the two Great Wars, where millions died unnecessarily including your ancestors. And I could go on and on. I think you get my point.
not sure that I do
all Germans suffered for what their government did
we will all suffer because of what Williams and Nalcor did
Well then government will have to ante up a Marshall-type Plan for NL, and put the culprits on trial like they did at Nuremberg, yah?
No, don't think you did get my point with your warped way of thinking. Yes millions suffered and died on all sides, but you still want to place blame on the innocent.
the "innocent" in NL voted the Tories in, three times in a row with huge majorities… the "innocent" in NL gave MF an 80% approval rating.. the "innocent" in NL rang the bells when Danny tore down the flags and when he called people traitors and when he stuck it to Harper
No, you still don't get it. The same "innocent", as you call them voted in Johnson twice, George Bush twice, and the Germans to war twice, because the people were bamboozled, lied to, minulapted and in some cases threatened them and their loved ones to comply or else!!! And you still say dam the innocent.
The truth is somewhere in between.In Britain, in WW1 maybe 1 million women worked in the war effort, many in munitions factories. They not only got jobs and pay, but hoped to get to vote by aiding the war effort, and this aided them in this effort. The few women who were pacifists were sidelined. Can't say so many were bambozzled and misled.
Here we had no munition factories, but lots knitting socks to do their bit. In the USA selling war bonds were very popular in WW1. And moving pictures show women just loved Hitler, as he brough prosperity ……for a while. What was not to love? Until 1944.
And here,in Nfld and Canada, the virtues of war was preached from the altars of most christian churches, and unions, like Coaker.
Winston Adams
Coaker, in a speech said, "My job is too important her, otherwise I would sign up and go. But if there was 50 young heroes who could go in my place, for King and Country" He got them, many who never came back, and he eventually bought an estate in sunny Jamaica. He became Sir William for his contribution to the Empire. The fishery eventually failed, but the power company didn't… he held a large interest in that.
WA
Anon 17:12
Johnson was elected President once
jackboots were only a characteristic of Nazi Germany and they only came out after they voted for Hitler (i.e., once)
not sure what "minulapted" means, but to compare the stupid voting decisions of NL'ers with World and other Wars is really beyond the pale
get a grip.. can you say that you never voted for PC's, never pumped your fist when he walked down that escalator, stood up to Danny for hunting "traitors", if that's so then you're not innocent you are righteous
The blame game played out here always rests on the outsider – Emera, NS, FG, Quebec, HQ, Harper, etc. etc. Our PC government, voted in 3x by NL voters, caused this fiasco, key point is "our" i.e. US
Johnson served served part of kennedy's term, there is a conspiracy theory that he was part of those who got rid of Kennedy, but the important point is he got the Vietnam war going real good and was elected again.
My second point was Germany was in two world wars led by dicitators.w
Where in the hell do you think NL's came from orgionally, the same place you and most other Americans and Canadians came from.. European countries, and the British Isles. And we follow our leaders, to the European wars in greater numbers than most Canadians and Americans.
Who I voted for is called a secret ballet, but I will let you in on a little secret, I never, ever voted for Danny.
When Danny came down the escalator, as you mentioned before and shouted "we got it", that was the 2$ billion he got from Paul Martin, from the Atlantic Accord, but you not being from this province would not know that, until I told you, or you looked it up on line.
And as I told you don't include Us and Our when you talk as you are not from here but central Canada. I recognize you with every word you write. Bruno got it right, you are just a troll. Youur the one that needs to get a grip.
I suppose, given the reality that so many Nflders were misled on the MFs fiasco, which indeed they were, as the Inquiry proves the false statements and assumptions and manipulations that went on, that only a few could see through.
So who was to counter this fake news of Ed Martin and others? Was our media with investigative journalism up to the task? Was MUN with their vast resources and experts up to the task? Or were these part of the enablers? Or was there no onus or expectation on them to do more?
If Nflders were duped and lied to, as happens at times in many countries, what is the cure to prevent it?
Is our culture that especially exposes us to be led down the garden path?
Jefferson said a democracy needs a free and independent press to survive. How independent and free is our press here in Nfld, then and now?
Winston Adams
Winston Adams
Anon 8:55
Tin foil hat a little tight? Jeeze Waldo/AJ/PF bye I think you're the impostor.. I was at the freakin' airport…
well good for you, you never voted for L'il Trump, but then again you couldn't cause you don't live here.. but there was an awful lot of Nl'ers who did for him and KD and by extension MF
aside from your poor grasp of 20th century history, I still don't get the connection WWI and WWII and MF
read:https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/snc-lavalin-ceo-guilty-fraud-pierre-duhaime-1.5001839
An interesting read on SNC-Lavalin and fraud charges, bribes etc. This is the outfit that we went to bed with on Muskrat. Didn't someone say here that D. Williams sold an engineering company to SNC-Lavalin around the time of the Muskrat EPCM award??
the crowd you went to bed with on MF were the Nalcor nitwits and the Danny posse.. you don't need to drag poor old SNC into the witch'es brew
Wilful blindness, the term used, as to SNC, where an official knows of wrong doing, could have stopped it , but did't , so a criminal offence.
Seems for the Inquiry here there was a lot of this wilful blindness going on. Seem they all qualify for help under the CNIB.
"wilful blindness" (sic) for SNC, you're grasping at straws.. can't lay the blame on them, just like can't lay the blame on Gov CAN.. any book cooking was purely a NL/Nalcor conceived and executed scheme.. accept it, you and all other NL'ers have to wear this
$33 million in bribes and "the biggest case of corruption fraud in Canadian history" and this guy is guilty only of wilful blindness and gets 20 months house arrest, 240 hours of community service and make a $200,000 donation to a fund that compensates victims of crime? Is this justice?
I have been asking since 2011 who the "agents" were that facilitated the contracts with SNC. I still hear only crickets and no interest from Vardy et al. in this illustrative SNC business practice.
I wonder why?
Anyone see Marketplace and the terrible state of ole people homes here, abuse and neglect and under staffing. One nurse for over one hundred patients.
But we need a MUN building to graduate more lawyers to chase accidents.
There was not much of a paper trail in the provincial government concerning Muskrat Falls – this article looks at the practice in other jurisdictions:
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/how-to-avoid-a-paper-trail-the-reliable-sometimes-illegal-tricks-used-by-bureaucrats-and-political-staff
Check out a possible harbinger of the North Spur… soil liquifaction at the Vale tailings dam in Brumadinho Brazil:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKZUZQytads
Deadly Brazilian dam burst likely due to liquefaction, like previous disaster:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/02/02/world/deadly-brazilian-dam-burst-likely-due-liquefaction-like-previous-disaster/#.XFcdMM1ry00
As to Synapse and electricification:EVs
EPA mile range:
Nissan Leaf is 151 miles
Tesla model 3 is 220 miles, and optional battery is 310 miles. Winter driving is typical 15 % less for range, and maybe 35 % less in extreme cold.
I had suggested EVs several months ago on UG to consume excess MFs power, before the Synapse report, and Heracles, Ex Military and others saw no value in it. Strange, since HQ has long had a big program to promote EVs in Quebec.
Why the silence on UG on this electricification( assuming MFs operates or CFs power is available over the line.
Winston Adams
The Chevy Bolt is EPA at 238 miles.
When tested at very low speeds average of 25 mph, the Bolt has got 460 miles, the Tesla 670 miles.
97 % of Bolt owners exceed the EPA range with ordinary driving.
For those who are inclined to believe Heracles,I not only make money from selling minisplits ( as he stated and did not correct the allegation), but also I now sell EVs. Someone should be able to prove that? Why else would I cite the benefits of this technology?
Winston Adams
Winston, is it Miles or Kilometres?
Being "old school" I think in miles,pounds and feet.
Leaf 151 miles = 243km EPA
Bolt, 238 miles = 383 kms EPA
Tesla 220 miles = 354 kms EPA
Tesla 310 mile version = 488 kms EPA
Low speed driving 25 mph
Bolt 460 miles = 740 km
Tesla 670 miles = 1078KM.
Batteries have more than doubled capacities in the last 10 years and keeps getting better and cheaper.
The battery in my 2005 Prius hybrid is small, about the size of a small suitcase,about 300v, and would only get about one mile on the battery alone, and this only intended to aid the gas engine. I had hoped for 8 year battery life, and they gave a 8 year warranty for the battery on the 2005 model. It is now 13 year old and the battery shows still excellent. The small 12 v battery I replace last year.
WA
Hello Winston!
Your comments on EV are really interesting, keep going!!
Just small correction here; I never hinted that EV "had no values". (I actually never really commented one way or the other)
Except once, when I mentioned that plug-in hybrids would currently be my preferred option, as my travel pattern often requires extended range, going to places where recharge infrastructure is not there yet. (Rouyn-Noranda, La Sarre, Amos and even Radisson)
Your are right that EV support infrastructure is growing fast in Quebec, and is about to reach a sufficient critical mass. Indeed, many will soon switch directly to EV.
Best regards,
Ex
PS: (off topic): In April 2001, I bought new Saturn SL1 – 5speed manual and no AC. Believe or not, I was really capable of achieving 5.5 liters/100km, highway driving @110km/hr. (like achieving more than 700 km for a 38 liter fuel stop)
I still have that car (stored for now) and it has now accumulated more 301 000 km. Still runs great, and still achieves the same fuel economy.
Thirty-three million dollars on a 1.3 billion dollar project, the McGill Hospital project , that extrapolates to three hundred and thirty million on a 13 billion dollar project or even half that if anyone ever imagined that Muskrat could be built for that amount. Wow! Who in NL might have gotten some of that loot, since that was the business practice of SNC Lavalin??
The South Pole and southern hemisphere is little mentioned, as so any life in the north.
I once asked a very clever and smart man "what way does a compass needle point, in what general direction?". He replied "North". I replied "You're correct, but you would have been just as correct if you said south, since the compass points both directions". The guy just smiled, and would have easily realised it if he considered it a little longer.
The polar vortex is due to rotating winds that keep the cold arctic air in the arctic region, and separate from the warmer mid latitude wind temperatures. The extreme cold recently experienced in NA is due to the polar vortex leaking, being pulled south, likely due to the changing jet stream, and likely from climate change.
It is estimated that if 1 % of the jet stream energy could be harnessed, it would serve all the would's energy needs. When commercial jets fly with the jet stream, they save about 30% on fuel and time, and when they fly against it, this reverses, using more fuel and taking longer.
While NA is coping with the leaking polar vortex, Australia is presnetly setting heat records at 49.5 C, with some fish dying from lack of oxygen.
The south also has a polar vortex, that operates over the Antarctic, and locks in the cold there, and seldom reached to cool off Australia.
Northern lights too has it's counterpart in the south , with the southern lights, and will be seen at the same times, and similar intensity, and varies in intensity with the energy impact of the sun's particles hitting our magnetosphere.
Our electrical grids composed of generators, motors, transformers and capacitors are inventions that in many respects copy transformation of energy what nature does on a planetary scale.
In the 1850 cables were laid across the Atlantic from Nfld for communication, not for power. They were fed by DC batteries to operate relays that clicked the code signals for letters, so a simple system.
During a solar storm in 1859 the GIC (geomagnetic induced current) superimposed itself on this these cables, sometimes driving the voltage higher or lower than the battery. Some of the operators realised what was going on, and disconnected the batteries, and found they could transmit better with with no battery at all, while this lasted. The northern lights were seen as far south as northern Mexico, and many thought it was the end of the world.
Such a GIC event knocked out the power grid in 1989, with outages from New York to Churchill Falls.
When we tamper with our climate,with non stop fossil fuel burning it is not only warming temperatures that are of concern. It is how we chose to harness electricity for our civilisation. Without electricity we need horsepower instead of kilowatt hours. And there are way too few horses. But no shortage of wind and solar and other means.
Winston Adams
Its so easy to re-estimate a project with hindsight and the actual costs in front of you. Hopefully the catastrophic events leading to budget escalation well beyond the project risk costs (hidden away) will be discussed in phase 2.