Former Premier Kathy Dunderdale is scheduled to appear as a Witness at the Commission of Inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Project today. The question that should be in the public’s mind is whether she will display any more knowledge of why her Administration sanctioned the scheme than she did in 2012. At that time she ought to have known that Nalcor was headed by unsuitable and inexperienced leadership and that it was driven by ego (her own and Danny Williams’) as well as recklessness underpinned by several unfounded (possibly contrived) assumptions which included some 50-year forecasts.
A few weeks after the Government sanctioned the project (December 17, 2012) this Blog featured a piece entitled “What the Members Opposite Don’t Understand” which had nothing to do with their ignorance (though it could have been about that, too). At issue was the lack of knowledge displayed by Dunderdale, herself.
Now, the former Premier will have to convince Judge Richard LeBlanc that she comprehended the complexity of the project and enormity of its implications – apart from the justification for giving it Sanction.
We await greater illumination from the former Premier in the coming days. Here is the January, 2013 piece:
What the Members Opposite Don’t Understand
Monday, January 14, 2013
Excerpt from Hansard: Address by Premier Kathy Dunderdale,
Private Members Motion in support of sanctioning the Muskrat Falls Hydro
Project. House of Assembly, Wednesday,
December 5, 2012.
Private Members Motion in support of sanctioning the Muskrat Falls Hydro
Project. House of Assembly, Wednesday,
December 5, 2012.
“…Mr. Speaker, I am not placing the fortunes of the people
of Newfoundland and Labrador in to some foreign entity over which we have no
control. Nalcor is owned by the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, Mr.
Speaker. They work for us, Mr. Speaker. Nalcor works for us, and let me tell
you, Mr. Speaker, that Nalcor is a regulated company and they have a regulated
rate of return set by the PUB. Everything they earn beyond that regulated rate
of return either gets reinvested on behalf of the people or returned to the
government of the people. You see, Mr. Speaker, this is some of the challenge,
because even the basics of how energy is managed here in this Province is not
well understood by the people opposite”. (Bold added)
of Newfoundland and Labrador in to some foreign entity over which we have no
control. Nalcor is owned by the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, Mr.
Speaker. They work for us, Mr. Speaker. Nalcor works for us, and let me tell
you, Mr. Speaker, that Nalcor is a regulated company and they have a regulated
rate of return set by the PUB. Everything they earn beyond that regulated rate
of return either gets reinvested on behalf of the people or returned to the
government of the people. You see, Mr. Speaker, this is some of the challenge,
because even the basics of how energy is managed here in this Province is not
well understood by the people opposite”. (Bold added)
SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!
Note to the Premier: 1. Nalcor is not ‘regulated’ by the
Public Utilities Board (PUB). Newfoundland Hydro Corp. is the Crown owned
regulated Utility. 2. Newfoundland Hydro is not permitted to earn any return
over the “regulated rate set by the PUB”.
Any utility charges in excess of the regulated return are ordered
returned, to the ratepayer, by the PUB.
3. You were heard on an open line program suggesting that Newfoundland
Hydro built the Churchill Falls Hydro Project.
Not true. The correct answer is BRINCO.
 |
| The Muskrat Falls Sanction photo-op |
Some further comment is necessary.
Faux pas, such as those, could be overlooked as minor matters
of misspeak, but for the fact that they are a frequent occurrence by the
Premier and often, too, by her Minister of Natural Resources.
Opposition Members seem to accept this unfortunate reality.
The media, too, are inclined to let the public make their own judgement.
Problem is, basic errors, such as those noted above, suggest that the Premier
simply does not know her file despite having been the energy Minister and one
of the leading spokespersons on Muskrat Falls.
The media, too, are inclined to let the public make their own judgement.
Problem is, basic errors, such as those noted above, suggest that the Premier
simply does not know her file despite having been the energy Minister and one
of the leading spokespersons on Muskrat Falls.
This item is not about
the cut and thrust of politics when Members of Opposition parties exchange
barbs and insults across the floor of the House of Assembly. This subject addresses the question of
whether leading politicians are up to their jobs.
the cut and thrust of politics when Members of Opposition parties exchange
barbs and insults across the floor of the House of Assembly. This subject addresses the question of
whether leading politicians are up to their jobs.
One cannot be allowed to forget the Government’s early and
deliberate strategy of obfuscation. It
had a very specific purpose: fend off the critics. It confirmed this hypothesis: the Premier and
her leading Ministers don’t really understand the intricacies of Muskrat, they
know that and they have to keep it a secret.
deliberate strategy of obfuscation. It
had a very specific purpose: fend off the critics. It confirmed this hypothesis: the Premier and
her leading Ministers don’t really understand the intricacies of Muskrat, they
know that and they have to keep it a secret.
The strategy grew legs as Muskrat’s questionable entrails were
exposed and as its rationale changed.
When one justification stretched credibility too far, another was
inserted, and kept active as long as it had staying power with the public. It began
with the proposal that power could be exported profitably. When that blew up, it was replaced with the prospect
of power for new mines; later the mantra was economic diversification.
exposed and as its rationale changed.
When one justification stretched credibility too far, another was
inserted, and kept active as long as it had staying power with the public. It began
with the proposal that power could be exported profitably. When that blew up, it was replaced with the prospect
of power for new mines; later the mantra was economic diversification.
The essence of today’s media, the ten or twenty second sound
bite, erodes any necessity for depth of knowledge or even the most basic
analysis. The Premier and her two
Ministers used the limitation with great success.
bite, erodes any necessity for depth of knowledge or even the most basic
analysis. The Premier and her two
Ministers used the limitation with great success.
Their favourite and well-rehearsed scripts include a plethora
of innocuous lines scripted by PR types: “we need the power”; “Nalcor says
Muskrat is the lowest cost option” or “the ratepayer will enjoy stable
electricity rates for fifty years”. The politicians knew (or ought to have
known) that Demand and the price of oil, and a plethora of other “known
unknowns”, to quote a former U.S. Defence Secretary, were well beyond anyone’s
ability to calculate.
of innocuous lines scripted by PR types: “we need the power”; “Nalcor says
Muskrat is the lowest cost option” or “the ratepayer will enjoy stable
electricity rates for fifty years”. The politicians knew (or ought to have
known) that Demand and the price of oil, and a plethora of other “known
unknowns”, to quote a former U.S. Defence Secretary, were well beyond anyone’s
ability to calculate.
And, what happened when they were confronted with any question
of complexity and demand for more detail? They deferred to Nalcor….Nalcor are
the experts, Dunderdale said. The
leadership is off the hook!
of complexity and demand for more detail? They deferred to Nalcor….Nalcor are
the experts, Dunderdale said. The
leadership is off the hook!
Politicians ought to understand the very matters to which they
are obligating Government and the taxpayers.
are obligating Government and the taxpayers.
When did it become acceptable for the political leadership to
defer to senior bureaucrats for any purpose other than occasional technical
details?
defer to senior bureaucrats for any purpose other than occasional technical
details?
The very notion that the CEO of Nalcor could be sent to the
airwaves, week after week for over a year, to conduct the Government’s
communications campaign and to deal with what the Premier and her Ministers are
unable to comprehend, has no precedent in the annals of the political history
of this Province, whether the Tory or the Liberal version.
airwaves, week after week for over a year, to conduct the Government’s
communications campaign and to deal with what the Premier and her Ministers are
unable to comprehend, has no precedent in the annals of the political history
of this Province, whether the Tory or the Liberal version.
To the same point, that the media fundamentally failed to
challenge the political leadership, and to have them justify Muskrat Falls,
without deference to Ed Martin and Nalcor is, I believe, the single greatest
media failure of the entire Muskrat Falls ‘debate’, not that you can grace any
phase of Muskrat’s unveiling with that interactive and engaging term.
challenge the political leadership, and to have them justify Muskrat Falls,
without deference to Ed Martin and Nalcor is, I believe, the single greatest
media failure of the entire Muskrat Falls ‘debate’, not that you can grace any
phase of Muskrat’s unveiling with that interactive and engaging term.
That said, the most basic failings of two key agreements, the
Federal Loan Guarantee and the Emera Sanction Agreement, are as unknown to the
people of the Province today, as when they were first announced. Why would our
politicians care if they know they will never have to explain?
Federal Loan Guarantee and the Emera Sanction Agreement, are as unknown to the
people of the Province today, as when they were first announced. Why would our
politicians care if they know they will never have to explain?
Perhaps that is why the Minister of Finance feels completely
fearless that he can go on the public media and be glib about returns on
Muskrat Falls. He knows that neither the
media nor anyone else has access to independent numbers that might prove that
he is ‘full of it’.
fearless that he can go on the public media and be glib about returns on
Muskrat Falls. He knows that neither the
media nor anyone else has access to independent numbers that might prove that
he is ‘full of it’.
The media are easy targets.
It is unfair to lay on them the shortcomings of a preoccupied or disinterested
public or, for that matter, the failings of politicians. But, on major issues whose impacts are
significant, the political leadership must be held to account. They must, as a
bare minimum, be challenged and be required to show proof that they understand
their files and that they are not mere puppets of smarter, more knowledgeable
and controlling bureaucrats whose interests may vary with the public
interest.
It is unfair to lay on them the shortcomings of a preoccupied or disinterested
public or, for that matter, the failings of politicians. But, on major issues whose impacts are
significant, the political leadership must be held to account. They must, as a
bare minimum, be challenged and be required to show proof that they understand
their files and that they are not mere puppets of smarter, more knowledgeable
and controlling bureaucrats whose interests may vary with the public
interest.
The comments of the Premier, recorded by Hansard, and noted in
the introduction, are not misspeak, or ‘slip of the tongue’. They reflect a Premier, who knows little of
the facts underlying the complex issues for which her Administration is
responsible; they represent a mindset that feels empowered enough to say
whatever comes to mind, even if it is totally inaccurate and off-the-wall. The Premier knows she will not likely be
challenged by anyone, that she is free to pillory offending critics.
the introduction, are not misspeak, or ‘slip of the tongue’. They reflect a Premier, who knows little of
the facts underlying the complex issues for which her Administration is
responsible; they represent a mindset that feels empowered enough to say
whatever comes to mind, even if it is totally inaccurate and off-the-wall. The Premier knows she will not likely be
challenged by anyone, that she is free to pillory offending critics.
Hansard awaits enrichment by the Province’s First Minister and
her key Ministers. Many of us have no
such expectation.
her key Ministers. Many of us have no
such expectation.
My God they accused Eddie Joyce of having only grade 4 education, I don't think the premier of the time had much more than that either, so no she did not comphrend the complexities of muskrat as espoused and concocted by Ed. But she did understand a hell of a lot more than she pretended and ran off at the mouth to attack her political opponents, and be a political bafoon to fool the people of the province to vote for her and her government as muskrat was the greatest invention since sliced bread. As I have mentioned before, her line and the guy that came to my door in that election, which she referred to after as a referendum on muskrat, his line was who would your rather give you hard earned money to, the big oil companies to keep Holyrood going or your own company that you own…nalcor. That was the hog wash she was bamboozling the voters with, and no doubt a lot fell for it. So will have to see now on the stand if she will be as defiant, and arrogant as normal, or show some remorse and sorrow, for her position she has through the worst political blunder in our history brought the province to fincincial ruin, right from burin, says average Joe.
I expect a lot of selective memory. For example Tom Osborne was on VOCM this morning taking about opposing Muskrat Fall at time of Sanction back in 2012, but at that time he was an independent MHA that voted with the Dunderdale government.
The only response that Dunderdale had to questions or criticism about MF was "It's a gooood praawject."
The public was neither preoccupied or disinterested. They were lied to about the benefits of MF by several premiers and myriad ministers.
In addition there were a handful of persons screaming bloody murder that this project was a scam, the power unneeded, the alternatives not examined.
Sadly we were attacked, vilified and sued for our trouble. Well NL what do you think of the "naysayers" now?
I personally met with one provincial member, one party leader and one city politician to carefully explain back in 2013 that 1) we didn't need the power 2) MF was too expensive and risky 3) several good alternatives existed that were far cheaper, including demand management. They all seemed mildly interested. Nobody was willing to get in the way of the Muskrat Falls steam roller. I got the feeling that politicians aren't independent, they simply tow the party line.
Ministers probably don't want to understand complicated thing like power generation. Their campaign financing is dependent upon keeping powerful donors happy. They are mouthpieces and pawns. Occasionally, a mafia boss himself might be a MHA and know exactly what is going on. Most of the time, it is willful ignorance, following talking points from the political party and preserving the status quo. Sometimes MHAs are so dumb that they couldn't understand it even if they wanted to. Heck, it is hard enough just to digest what gets posted weekly on this blog. Opening you mouth as a politician, even if to ask legitimate questions on behalf of the public, will get you ostracized within the party.
You make a powerful case that all the MLA's need to go. Only the ones that you claim will be ostracized are worth keeping.
The Newfoundland Power witness is providing the most reasonable evidence I have seen/heard to date (and is providing understandable, broad explanations of key issues related to the difference between 'lowest possible cost consistent with reliable service' and Nalcor's (pre-packaged) 2-option 'least-cost', reliability, etc.
Refreshing, to say the least.
The madam Prem would include him and Andy Wells with "Your Dammed PUB". Gnats, and negativity factors, to be sent out of the room.
So Hollett projects a Liberal win in the Spring election. The progressive alternative, (NDP/Green coalition), seems to be discounted, meaning the Tory-minded boys are back in power. By Tory-minded I'm thinking business chambers, ruling class which historically got us where we are. There are a lot of Liberals who are in this bunch. The way seems clear for Independents to stand in the Spring, representing the lessons learned, real socio-economic change, and as Herb Pottle would say "Dawn with Light".
Backup generation is required on the Avalon. Options?
1) Refurbish Holyrood
2) Add several smaller generators that burn diesel (turbines, diesel engines).
3) Start building out wind generation, perhaps add a battery to buy time for unexpected wind farm shutdowns, massive demand reduction via heat pumps and biomass, including low cost financing and rebates, variable rate structure, remove the generation monopoly legislation and let any business generate power, including the oil refinery self-generating its own power.
Any other ideas?
The failure points are many. Ice storms anywhere from Labrador to the Avalon, ocean link failure like Tasmania had, lack of spare parts for the Soldiers Pond converter, General Electric software glitches, North Spur lets go … Rotating blackouts will happen.
Better, more sustainable urban growth and redevelopment would reduce dependence on non-renewable energy. Where were you in 1990? Did you not see the Dunderdale Days clearly?
MA @ 10:25, as to NLP CEO,
What is not refreshing is that they knew significant risks of MF but said nothing, now even a written public comment to the PUB as you a dozen or more others did. Yet they were the single best source with expertise to put views forward prior to sanction.
Also as to CDM, they were achieving reduction at a cost of 4 cents , and fuel cost alone for Holyrood was 13- 19 cents in recent years. SO why very small CDM, when it was 1/4 the cost of fuel? Nfld has the 2nd worse CDM program in Canada. Kate nor others questions why not more CDM?
Also he says NLP did not know the limited capacity to transfer power on our island AC system to the Avalon! That is unbelieveable. Time for Fred Wilcox, ex Hydro engineer to comment here. That was well known by Nfld Hydro and must have by NLP. He says NLP only realised that constriction after DARKNL. Hogwash , I suggest. His evidence points to NLP being an enabler of MFs by their silence.
And most startling: MFs reliability puts us back to third world operation tactics, using rotating loads when a significant power failure. Rotating loads is nice language for rotating outages, as for DARKNL, this by design. And likely for 2 weeks as Nalcor says or a month or more as this witness says, if the DC line fails in winter. Refreshing, or outrageous, that this was NLP assessment but kept quiet until now?
Winston Adams
Well, listening to KD so far, her grasp of the details is no better today than it was as quoted in the 2012 post by UG. She seems to be struggling to try and spew some of the stuff Ed Martin said last week. Going to be a painful week here.
KD seems to have a case of early onset dementia. To almost every question she responds "I don't know" and "I remember nothing". It is pathetic!
In her own mind, at the time, she trusted her subordinates. Was she lied to?
"No admission that subordinates may have, nor did lie to her". What could have possibly gone wrong?
Seems much a waste of time to rag the puck on hidden risks of 500 million, when this project is now more than 10 times over budget, so real risk is proven to be over 5 billion.
And clear that 500 million would not deter sanction. Wade Locke says 8 billion a upper limit, and she got advice from Locke. Danny Millions said a figure too high was 100 billion, his testimony.
So this hiding a risk assessment but one of many tricks pulled to deceive. Low reliability alone means we need a replacement for Holyrood, as implied by NLP today, to decommission Holyrood was another trick, as Nflders will not tolerate rotating outages for a months instead of 2.8 hr per year outage. ANd outages would not be 2 hrs, but maybe off 80% of time, so houses will go cold during a cold snap.
Best the Inquiry go more on the fact we did not need the power , and how they arrived at a false forecast. NLP power CEO gave some insight into that today; power sales already gone negative, they forecast only for 5 years, they use only elasticity factor of 0.2, as they don't use shock rates resulting from unnecessary oversized megaprojects, they don't assume 300 MW potential import over the ML means power gets to the Avalon. etc., as there is not the transmission capacity on exixting AC grid.
That false assumption of power forecasting opened the door for hidden risks and a hundred more mistakes and tricks. And NLP did not consider Nfld Hydro forecaster or planner had expertise.
Dunderdale's BS is gong show stuff. UG should pay more attention to NLP testimony , the good and the bad. Ask Kathy what happened to her CDM plan of 20 % reduction by 2020!
Winston Adams
What do you all think of your former premier, calling out selected BC municipalities, for thinking it is time to have a climate action plan?
https://peckford42.wordpress.com/2018/12/17/open-letter-to-some-bc-municipalities/
Wait until he finds out that Sin Jawns has appointed a climate action coordinator 🙂
OMG it is worst than I ever taught. She has lost all memory, or did it have such an effect on her in the last 5 years, when she reliazed how bad it was that she blanked it all out of her memory. But in addition to that, in general terms, it shows a lot of flawed thinking, at the time. She said she had as much confidence in nalcor to do muskrat right as she did in transportation, or health care etc. These dept do regular work on going. Transportation do roads, bridges etc. Every year, year in year out so they get good at it, maybe learn from some mistakes. Nalcor had done no hydro project before, and basically all the staff there and in govt. had never done an hydro project before, and certainly not a maga project, or maga dam. Yet she viewed it all in the same light. Of course she flaunted it many times, back then that nalcor, in her mind was world class. But she was named premier for one reason by Danny, and one reason only, to sanction muskrat, and a year after that she resigned, job well done. She had achieved her objective. Harper had approved it through the loan guarantee, the banks had approveded, all had done their due diligence, so why did she need to do due delligance, it sounds like. She was in too big of a rush for that, They convinced themselves that the sun, moon, stars, all the planets, high and low tides, big oil and interest rates were all aligned, plus Frankenstein and Dracular. So the rush was on, do it now, why wait till spring. As for Harper, he was just laying a trap. And the banks were gung ho, as they knew a loan guarantee was in the works, they wanted a part of the action. Yes, lost some of her vim and vigor from muskrat times to now, not as arrogant, not so sure of her self, a little more pious, and maybe a little wise now. But all of that does not change the simple fact that she was one of the ring leaders and did the final action..of sanction. That will go,down in history. Who will write the books on this, who will write history ask average Joe.
Is it just me?
So far Danny Williams, Ed Martin and Kathy Dunderdale have testified at the Inquiry.
All 3 are major players in the Muskrat Falls project.
All 3 appear to have kept NO personal notes on any of these crucial meetings!
Then you see others such as civil servants, Nalcor employees and others many of whom kept notes.
It gets even more frustrating when persons such as Martin or Dunderdale have been noted by others as attending certain meetings and functions all they are left saying is either, I don’t recall or I must have said it.
I have been involved with volunteer organizations who had better governance than some of our own Provincial Government officials.
If there wasn’t anyone doing minutes of these various meeting bare minimum persons in attendance should be keeping personal notes.
To me it is that ridiculous it would almost lead someone to wonder if it was intentional!
I sincerely hope this will also get addressed by Justice LeBlanc along with a host of other issues that have arisen?
Good comment Robert.
Peckford seems not to understand the difference between weather and climate change, so to our NFLD Rhodes Scholar on the CBC, Murphy.
The USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Brazil, all major oil producers are for drill baby drill so are suicidal, and delays implementation of the Paris Accord. Australia have joined them as coal producers. Nfld dependence on offshore is with those also, so would support Peckford,I think, as too they foolishly supported MFs.
Climate change due to fossil fuel burning is false, as too is lung cancer caused by cigarettes is false! Oil companies use tobacco companies as their playbook. That 97% of climate experts agree on the result of fossil fuel burning, and there is 95 % certainty of severe consequences if not countered in 10-12 years, means nothing to Peckford. He goes with the 3 % who are the foolish ones.
BC should send Peckford packing back to Nfld , and we should erect a small Sprung greenhouse for him on Baccalieu Island, and banish him there.
Winston
From Poland where 14,000 delegates concluded another round on climate change: 45 % cuts in emissions needed by 2030, or we go down the tubes. So we need a lot of sanctions of green projects.
The yellow vest protests in France show that carbon taxes need to be transferred back to green infrastructure and to the poor, so must be fair and fast to be successful. Here in Nfld those taxes now planned to go to the polluters and corporations, though Trudeau says otherwise, but Ball decides.
Being screwed on power rates, why now too, all so silent on who benefits from carbon taxes? Where is our Green Party?
Talk, talk , talk since 1992 on this issue, when then using 90 million barrels a day, now about 100 million barrels of oil burned a day. That's progress.
Take Charge, a Fortis operation tells our school children ( we pay for that from our power bills) that they have to solve the problem, while our generation, who caused the problem, does nothing.
Forgot, NLP wanted more wind energy instead of MFs but didn't tell anyone. Maybe I dreamed that. If a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears it, did it make a sound?
NLP: The sounds of silence. Simon and Garfunkel. Great song. "Hello darkness my old friend, rotating outages is the trend"> Nalcor , NLP and Nfld Hydro scallywags theme song.
WA
NLP CEO got more TV coverage than Dunderdale. He explained their past silence on lack of factual information form Nalcor.
How come others could comment at the PUB and make submissions? Now they want to be part of the rate mitigation reviews. Damn well better that they promoted Isolated Island options in 2012, to avoid MFs. Now with hefty price increases coming, and they are the public face sending the bills, they want input.
Rather late, but never too late, maybe. First be open and transparent. NLP had to know that rotating outages would result from a DC line failure and no Holyrood for backup. 2 AC 230KW lines to the Avalon can deliver slightly more that 600 MW to the Avalon, needing about 1100MW. Where did NLP think the missing 500 MW would come from? OK, so he's not an engineer, neither is Ed Martin. But Nlfd Power had engineers who knew this basic stuff when I was there in the 1970s. So now they didn't know this? Tell the truth NLP.
And the new third line? I have mentioned several times this comes to Western Avalon, so still only 2 lines to Eastern Avalon. For the geographically challenged, Eastern Avalon is St John's, Mt Pearl, CB, so most all the heavy population and hospitals and shops etc. THe Avalon will about 1/2 the power needed in a DC failure and no Holyrood, even if central Nfld has a great surplus of hydro. Brought to you by Nalcor and Nfld Hydro planners, for only 12.7 billion. Hang on to your portable generators and wood stoves, and even kerosene heaters.
Winston Adams
Yes, so Winston, whose idea for NLPower to appear now? His? If Leblanc's should have appeared when the PUB was there. Could have put peters testimony to a lot of the nalcor people. Guess he just wanted to add his two cents worth, after everyone else had their say and no conflict. Is he the author of the scallowags and double down on 3 sweaters. Don't think he put CDM front and center as no need for muskrat or integrated system. But he did make a couple of good points that you have to agree with. But if he doesn't have the guts to tell it as it was at the time…then don't go looking for brownie points or public sympathy… Still in the same catagory in my books as nalcor and nl hydro says average Joe.
Indeed Joe, NLP should have made opinions known at the PUB in 2012, when it could have counted, even if it was informal. The very detailed submission by someone JM, I thought may have been by NLP, if they feared consequences of going public, but NLP says they had no fear of that. There must have been some benefit of silence,but now coming back to bite them.
Under Clyde Wells they wanted to take over Nfld Hydro. Would that have voided MFs? Interesting Wells, Roberts, J Crosbie, other big wigs are silent as a mouse on this fiasco. And most of the law firms making a fortune as we sink deeper.
And odd that HQ visited Nalcor a weeks ago (did I read that), about the time all our Quebec friends went silent on UG, the 3 regulars. Coincidence?
WA
Hello Winston,
While I keep reading the blog, I indeed only commented twice in the last two weeks. I'm definitely not knowledgeable enough in NL's politics to bring anything valuable. I however keep reading on this inquiry – for learning purposes.
About other Qc regulars participation, I suspect they were not really impressed by Bruno's unwarranted / vulgar remarks against them.
It culminated when Bruno targeted Bernard Lahey; I just could not believe Bruno's comments. Mr Lahey is probably among the top respectful / diplomatic person around here (ok, I'm not forgetting you Winston, and also Robert). He definitely did not deserve any of that trash.
I'm not aware of any HQ's visits at Nalcor. I don't expect any movements (if ever) in this arena until credit ratings start crashing. The political will (for win – win discussion with HQ) is still not there yet in NL.
Sincerely, best regards.
PS: Oh well, I guess Bruno will have now an additional Qc participant to spit his trash on.
NFLD Power silence was all part of the plan
Have you noticed 2 things lately
1. NF Power talks about how great they have been over the last 20 years (one half of one cent added to rate payer cost only)
2. Fortis CEO says they would like to be a part of the solution in Nfld.
This all means ONE THING ONLY – all part of the original plan. Think back to Clyde Wells Days. What did Fortis want then ?
Fortis wants to purchase the great NL Hydro assets for a song……
There is no such thing as "NLPower".
Anyone who refers to "NLPower" (or its cousin, Wangersky's favourite, "Newfoundland Hydro") reveals themselves to be someone who doesn't know what they are writing about.
Ex-Mil I hope that HQ execs are perched outside Premier Higgs' door, with a sweet offer to liven up the Atlantic grid with that nice clean green pipeline juice, ready to knock off the polluting coal plant at Belledune. Joyeux Noel et Bonne Annee
Hello Robert,
It would indeed be great we find ways to economically replace that polluting Belledune coal plant with cleaner HQ's hydro.
I'm too optimistic though. The last time HQ proposed an extremely generous offer to take over NB Power (agreed, excluding few assets, incl Belledune), HQ / Quebec was rather dragged through the mire.
I suspect NB would still be more interested in keeping the jobs at Belledune rather than obtaining cheaper/cleaner HQ power. I also suspect HQ is not willing to be dragged again through the mire by NB – nor by NL as a matter of fact.
Some Belledune Wiki: It consumes about 1 million tons of coal per year, and generates approximately about fifteen percent of the province's electricity, while producing roughly thirty percent of the province's air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (among large industrial polluters).
I guess NB could be a more willing participant if Emera & Nalcor join the fray (for that bigger scheme we talked about). It could then be less of a political suicide if others also see the benefits.
————————————————————-
Always a pleasure exchanging with you Robert.
Merry Christmas and a happy new year to you and your family.
And most of all, the best health possible.
Correction: I'm "not" too optimistic though
Winston: In answer to your question, I knew nothing about this alleged HQ "visit to Nalcor", and I assure you that (assuming this visit/these visits really took place) this is unrelated to my no longer leaving comments here: yes indeed, coincidence.
As I wrote in my most recent comment here, I have been and will continue reading this blog while refraining from leaving comments except in answer to questions (such as yours) or to correct a factual error.
So Kathy Dunderdale was, for all intents and purposes, Ed Martin's carefully cultivated mushroom, and a naive, gawpingly complacent one at that.
A sure-fire set-up to ensure Martin's fate as colossal failure at building hydro-electric dams, as well securing Dunderdale's ignominious place in NL history as a stand-out amongst the legions of inept, dim-witted politicians incompetent in their portfolios, and abjectly derelict in their duty of service to the overall good of the province.
Makes no difference. Still collects Fat Pension(s).
Quite an abysmal legacy nonetheless…. certainly nothing to be proud of.
A shit way to earn a pension… but pretty-much par for the course in this northern banana republic of a province.
They cant be getting much work done at Hydro Quebec during the live streaming of this Inquiry. They must be rolling in the aisles, and to watch it for free! Better than anything on Netflix. What a complete embarrassment.
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I would venture to say there are quite a few ex-Nalcor and ex-NL Hydro employees doing exactly the same thing!
They must have one word in the back of their minds?
Karma!
The real ex-employees of NL hydro and Nalcor would take no enjoyment from this wrt the cost to rate payers.
Perhaps a little in seeing Ed under pressure !
Dunderdale is a lying POS. She didn't know the project had a 1% chance of finishing on time. Give me a break. When you only listen to people that tell you what you want to hear you can't plead ignorance. They all should be tarred and feathered… Dunderdale, Williams, Martin, Kennedy and Locke – bankrupted a province. Too bad the Astaldi cheques dried up.
Did I not hear in the intro that Ms. Dunderdale stated her studies in Change Management? She certainly excelled in a rapid rising career path to the level of decision maker about change. Williams made opportunistic use of her talents to do what he could not do, facilitate sanction of a very high risk, costly build out of the power grid to serve the Avalon. The players seem to have gotten the first step, "Awareness" somewhat poorly constructed; information gaps, feasibility, strategic plan, analysis. History will be highly critical. Much pain and suffering inflicted.
NL should be wary of the next management change leader, following the Spring Election. The move towards Tory leadership, currently sweeping the country, is bringing a "hit the ground running" style of aggressive change artists. Witness Dougie Ford in Ontario, focused on Party friendly appointments, obfuscation on financial matters, arbitrary cuts, quick decisions without consultation, controlled communications, all programmed to unsettle the liberal mindset. Is Dwight about to become a Dougie? Ches does not appear to have the flaming gut characteristics.
Looking back 60 years or so, All our Premiers seemed to be under-qualified for the task at hand. They were essentially "learning on the job", and prone to hyped up urgency to make ill thought out short term fixes. Can we change this very costly and non-productive trend?
I find it hard to listen to the absurd and repeated reliance (at the premier's level) on the contrived CPW, pre-packaged, 2-option PUB comparison.
Surely, any inquiring mind (highly educated or not) could have seen the glaring flaws in such a highly suspect and purposely framed pre-packaged scheme.
The 500 million strategic risk omission is a mere crumb in comparison to the billions inappropriately assigned to the various factors associated with the CPW pre-packaged deception.
Agree Maurice, the 500 million risk issue is one small factor in the overall 2-option deception (deception of a thousand pieces)
I notice Peng2 was reviewing the Knight report, which the then CA buried. Now we have NLP CEO testimony. WA and you and AJ note ALteen's his good comments critical of MFs, but also too little too late, as better they went public in 2012. Also now apparent they are 90% responsible for Take Charge and the small CDM in this province. PlanetNL recently highlighted what CDM could do.
But I am puzzled by Peng2 silence of commentary on Knight or NLP CEO testimony ( except to say NLP a mere power distributor, so nothing to see there)
PF
PF @ 10:56:
Its a fair bit of info to digest and consider the past few days – a quick off the cuff comment does no good.
I stand by that until invited NLP had no place in commenting on MF more than they did and are only a distributor – and they did say pre-sanction that they would not get involved with minority stakes with governments because when thing went wrong they couldnt fix themselves. Its not that NLP didn't comment on MF – its just that their comments (and lack of participation) were ignored like almost everyone else. For sure with EM in cabinet Fortis had the investment opportunity, maybe Fortis declining was part of her leaving among other causes?
I think a lot are disregarding the impact $500M risk – that is 8% of sanction budget and was a Nalcor 'approved' estimate, probably was closer to $2B truth be known. The handling of the risk is something that can easily be shown to void all decision basis – whether reasonable or optimum or best practice, and reasonable is what we need to consider by definition.
PENG2
PENG2. What's done is history. Are you confident that people in the utility business, are now prepared and involved with building a less extravagant, wasteful, and non-renewable energy model? Does your own job and living standard offer you opportunities to make the difference?
Robert @ 12:38:
History – yes, but to be able to avoid a repeat we need a detailed understanding of what went wrong; and the will power to adopt an update governance model.
I have limited confidence in Nalcor or government to develop a new strategy. I have good confidence in NLP to distribute – and more so since Alteen spoke.
PENG2
Makes one wonder how Government by the people was motivated to work around the regulated utility, (1990's),NLP, to facilitate a monster corp starting with NAL:-)
Dunderdale at times kept notes, but not so detailed as Kennedy. But when she finished as Premier she left the office with only her coat she says. Her notes were left at the office. Learmonth says there is no record of her notes being found. Dunderdale said later some staff delivered her files to her, but not her notes.
I seem to recall one of the perks she got was about $70,000.00 to hire her daughter, (if someone can verify) to sort and secure her files.
Given she promoted MFs as an historic event for the province, one would think she wound have had a keen interest in securing her notes, which could have been useful for this Inquiry. We see Leblanc constantly taking notes as to testimony. Yet we have people in governance who seem intentionally wanting to avoid any written record of events. And the Inquiry counsel seems, and even Leblanc, seems not alarmed at this disappearance or lack to official records being kept. Cofey made a point of it for one witness.
PF
I think KD is doing a very good job of explaining her position, but her big downfall was in creating the monoster, and putting too much trust and confidence in it. Nalcor let her down big time, as Eddie ran the show and only told her what they wanted to tell her. As for BL yes, give it up, about down in the weeds, she told you she wasn't there, about risk, 500 million as risk etc. She don't know anything about p factors told you, that was something you went to the bathroom for. Now the important big decisions for here were, and she tried to tell you, was the CETA agreement that Harpe wanted in exchange for the loan guarantee, and she told him to get lost. But he came back again more refined and offered 400$ million, for the MPR's. But then he even regened on that later. The other things she need to explain in great detail (1) how did you know we neede the power, how much and when. (2) how did you know muskrat was the lowest cost option, and explain what was the lowest cost power. Focus on those big questions please. She was not in the daily running of nalcor… Eddie did that and tried to run her and the govt. at times too. Cheers, average Joe.
Eddie ran NL Hydro into the ground as well !!
Joe, I think Dunderdale was up to her armpits in steering MFs with Ed Martin and all others. She said this morning she did not ignore naysayers but spend hundreds of thousands on reports to address their concerns.
For my part I took serious her challenge to find just one issue that was overlooked by Nalcor. Besides by presentation to the PUB on CDM and efficient heating, I followed up with detail analysis in a 3 piece series published in the Telegram, prior to sanction ( detailed to the limit of 1000 words each as Russell would permit) as to CDM combined with reasonable addition of wind and small hydro. Russell at the Telegram put the titles on these, as to ENERGY EFFICIENCY.
Not a single response from Dunderdale or any govn or Nalcor or Nfld Hydro official (nor NLP). Now we find out this approach deliberately ignored by Nalcor/Hydro in forecasting and planning, and even Navigant on CDM was ignored, and Knight also on CDM and more wind and small hydro ignored and buried by Tom Johnson.
So Dunderdale is dishonest to say they addressed all naysayers concerns. Completely ignored. PlanetNL clearly points out the alternatives to inefficient baseboard heat, as does Vardy and Feehan.
The words "inefficient baseboard heat' has not been stated in this Inquiry. On the contrary, the forecaster, Stratton wanted more inefficient baseboard heat to justify his optimistic load growth.
Yet Learmonth lets her say she addressed all naysayers concerns.
HELLLLLLOOO, Kathy. Was I on the Nalcor's naysayer hit list? Was not Nalcor proposing politician talking points to counter naysayers. Did not Ed Martin draft a email as to the "BULLSHIT" of the naysayers and to engage the media and others to counter it?
Dunderdale up to her armpits, I think , Joe.
"You and the damn PUB " she told Andy Wells, his testimony. Imagine if the PUB had actually stated MFs was not the least cost option! This is what democracy gives us in governance. Obviously something wrong with our form of democracy, or with our sociery in general. I think Dunderdale is dumb, but clever, even very clever, like Ed Martin.
Winston Adams
I agree with you Winston, on Andy and the PUB, she contacted him directly and would agree with Andy more than her. But on you other statements, where she said she said they spent hundreds of thousands to address naysayers concerns, yes, but she did that through nalcor not personally or through government. And wether it was on LNG, natural offshore gas, wind, small hydro, the cost of bunker C for Holyrood….or CDM, it was done through nalcor. And nalcor controlled and gave here those findings after they had doctored them, or told them to change them. So she was getting reports filtered through nalcor . As for her being clever, yes I said that before and would stand by it, mainly political clever, and smart like a fox, but not down in the weeds and technical smart. So not putting any of them on a mantle, they are all responsible, especially the 3 ring leaders, some more than others says average Joe.
The Lady seems sincere, and wanted the best for her fellow NLrs. Could it be that there were some in her circle, and outside, who wanted her to fail, or take the fall?
Robert @ 15:50:
You want to reconsider that position given another day?
PENG2
Always ready for reconsideration of my opinion. Don't you see a bit of the Kim Campbell scenario? First female leader, vulnerable to somewhat aggressive male advice, particularly the venal sort. She certainly served the pro Muskrat railroaders very well. She certainly did not take methyl mercury risks seriously, and has not shown capability to discern good from bad advice. I still believe she had her heart in serving NL.
As this inquiry will show what we already know,we will have to see it through. All that happened was a great amount of money was made available for a feeding frenzy of a select group. Numbered companies, blind thrusts the list goes on. Look over your shoulder and see what’s going on to the south. It’s not possible to think that a few individuals could be so selfish as to destroy a province the way they have, but they done it. Let’s just hope justice will prevail.
While justice is important, we need to be vigilant.
Act II is unfolding as we speak.
Act I was Williams/Dunderdale.
Act II is Ball/Coady —- Gull Island.
We ain't seen nothin yet.
Yes, my fear, we take on GullIsland with hopes it will create a bunch of short term jobs and s future based on sales of electricity that will counter balance MF and GI
I am glad I am a septuagenarian and won’t live long enough for the extended miseries.
So, there I was, early afternoon, so bored with the line of questioning and Dunderdale's fuzzy memory, that I had dosed off, my laptop and streaming audio still running. I had preferred she had been gonged before 10 am, but stayed tuned in expectation of some revelation.
I awoke to Learmonth and KD on the topic of Nfld Power's Alteen prior testimony, a key topic I thought. Here was KD saying Nfld Power's advise and input would have been much appreciated. No reason why they could not engage. They had not reached out. Well, I'll be a monkey's uncle. Butter wouldn't melt in her mouth. What a display of warmth and openness, not the bully Andy Well's described. Andy's seemed to have lost his notes too on that. Sooooo…. Nfld Power telling fibs, under oath? Could not engage in the process? Forced to keep silent on their alarming views of the boondoggle unfolding in 2012, said Alteen.
Who to believe, Alteen or KD?
Winston Adams
Terry Roberts of CBC gives a good summary of ALteen's testimony, who was the harshest critic so far:
Nfld Power was basically alarmed over the MFs scheme, ALteen had personally handed the info to his boss in 2011. He noted concerns to the Inquiry:
1. the big concern for the resultant power rate increase on customers.
2.the lack of reliability of the DC line
3. the plan to decommission Holyrood, a necessity, a critical resource, known by their own experts, during severe power failures
4. when the DC line fails in winter, a 14 day or longer outage period,
5. during such a DC line failure, a plan of rotating outages to customers on the Avalon.
6. A DC line that did not meet Canadian standards.
7. the plan for rotating outages, such a plan that does not meet North American norms for reliability, and this for cost considerations.
8. and existing island AC lines with insufficient capacity to meet the Avalon load in winter cold weather.
Who would not be alarmed? As an ex-Nfld Hydro control and protection engineer, all of these my very own concerns, and more: the DC line exposure to frequent salt flashovers, and possible issues of GIC issues. In all, truly a possible nightmare situation for all the Avalon, requiring a SOS to any and all who would take heed. ALteen's concerns were alarming> spend 6 billion dollars or more and end up with much worse power reliability!
Enough to turn your hair grey overnight, for any power engineer.
Winston Adams
Instead of an SOS, Nfld Power snuck under the cone of silence. Why? Here is their reasoning, as reported by Terry Roberts;
1. MFs was political motivated, not a public utility concern.
2. Nfld Power was completely shut out of the process
3. The Nfld govn sought no opinion from Nfld Power
4. Nalcor and their experts had already reached a conclusion of MFs being the preferred option.
5. The time frame for the PUB (9 months) meant Nfld Power were not able to participate
6. The process was politically constrained and prevented Nfld power from scrutinising the work of Nalcor and its consultants.
Strange that none of these reasons were stated in 2012, pre MFs sanction. Their reason then was they were not interested in the project, and would not invest in any project unless they had at least 51 % interest.
Knowing what they did, that this province under Nalcor was heading for disaster, was silence instead of an SOS the right course? Were their customers and much higher power rates high priority?
The naysayers were not silent. Are their reason now stated mere excuses?
Should not Nfld Power have joined forces with the naysayers?
Up til now their silence has been deafening.
We now have heard the sounds of silence from Nfld Power. We have yet to see the fallout. They now want input into mitigation of rates. Don't we all?
Winston Adams
WA @ 22:58:
I think there is more than we know here – I suspect the NLP was given the opportunity to be involved, and refused. I suspect that there were behind the scenes discussions (possibly with little confirmed engineering) – the 51% majority is a not all inclusive of NLPs reasons for not being involved, though they were effectively saying then Nalcor didn't have the ability to complete the work.
NLP ROI is on the order of $200M annually – from a Fortis standpoint, I am not sure I would have jeopardized that for involvement in a MF scheme unless I had control either.
PENG2
PENG2, agree that 51 % is a minor issue, and they knew the poor economics and risky reliability of MFs
What bothers me more ( as I acknowledge that Nfld Power is efficiently run), is that knowing the great risk to our province, and having great insight to the flaws, they stayed silent for the past 6 years. Being open and critical at the time may not have been sufficient to change events and history, but now they would be standing tall instead of accused as an enabler, as I do accuse them. Yet I manage an account for a relative that includes Fortis shares, so I do not like being critical of them, but call it as I see it. One could suppose the worse, that they stand to profit and pick up the pieces from Nalcor's failure? Insiders know the answer,but the public does not. They will have loss of reputation, no doubt. Too long have power companies here been rubber stamped with ratepayers of little concern, but ratepayers fault too for not being engaged.
Winston
Winston
PENG2 I see you have a glowing orb that answers your questions! If not an orb to what do you attribute that NLP was given the opportunity to be involved, and refused?
Your analysis without evidence is worthless.
Bruno @ 10:24:
Simple facts from pre-sanction:
https://www.thetelegram.com/business/fortis-passed-on-lower-churchill-132870/
At least try to show some basic understanding of what is happening – I posted this for you months ago, but you didn't verify it then….
PENG2
And the Inquiry moved from Nfld Power to Andy Wells opinion of KD being a bully. No way says KD. Yes there was that telephone call, but she never said what Andy said she said. To the contrary, she was very "professional". He said , she said. Who to believe?
Then Learmonth produced Andy's handwritten note, found in the files of the PUB. Just as he stated had happened. And it noted too that KD was also very upset at engineer Fred Martin, for doing his job. Too bad KD didn't keep notes. She swore to to tell the truth. What does Lebalnc's notes now say on this, I wonder?
And then KW talked about Quebec, a Minister inviting her for breakfast. She engaged , but too busy to stay engaged. "Just can't trust them" she says. An example of her nasty side. Yet Quebec made the overture, and she dropped the ball to continue, so it seemed to me.
All in all, not a dull day at the Inquiry. KD changed her necklace and ear rings. Did others notice her very sharp memory on her meetings with the New England governors and Quebec minister, in contrast to her frequent "I have no recall of that Mr Commissioner", as to the goings on with her govn officials and Nalcor. For those events, forgetfulness is her friend.
And good to see Ex Military following UG. If we have blackouts and rotating outages here over the holidays or winter, ask HQ to send some expertise. Merry Christmas Ex.
Winston Adams
Merry Christmas to you (and your wife) too Winston!
THE POWER:
Yes we need THE Power, they said. How much power?? And When?? Ten years has gone by now, since they decided on muskrat. How much power has been added?? One new TC 5 or so years ago at Holyrood. Brought a 3rd. Line from BDS to the western Avalon for Val Nickle. So when they first approved muskrat back in 2010 how much power did we need? Was it 800, 600, 400, 200 MHW?? And When?? Will we get muskrat power by 2020?? All unanswered question, after 3 months of testimony. And all the commissioners and lawyers are hauling in the dough. wWhat questions has been asked? What questions have been answered? If we needed 200 MHW of power why go looking for 800. Eddie and others said muskrat was approved before considering the maratime link, or considering any power sales. That was just an after taught, to do something with the excess power, give it away, sell it at 5 cents, or make some gravy on the New England spot market. All after taught s. Sell power to NS for 16 hours a day, and import power from NB for the other 8 hours a day. Eddie came up with that one on his last day of testimony. All under the umbrella, of mitigation. He wanted to mitigate everything. Spend money on muskrat to mitigate risk before sanction. Or wave a magic wond to mitigate, risk, or simply with the stroke of a pen, mitigate risk. They spent enough on muskrat before sanction to add another TC at Holyrood, and maybe another 50 or 100 MHW of wind power right on the Avalon. So after 3 months of testimony we are no closer to the answer , did we Need THE POWER and was it the LOWEST COST POWER. Get off your butts for Christ sake and give us the answers to those two, basic, fundemental questions says average Joe.
You nailed it Joe. Nfld Power also said Nfld Hydro forecasters and planners were not experts. Very obvious.
Kate said various inputs should have been run maybe 50 times. That is very general. But yes: assumptions :CDM reduction in MW, 5, 10, 15, 20 25 30 35 40 45 50, ramped up each year, wind added, 50, 50,, 25 , 25 ,25, 25 , 25 , 25 , etc up to 400, then island hydro, 50, 50, 50, or more. Then inputs for gas turbines as back up and replace obselete Holyrood, 50Mw, 50, 50 etc
Then see the results on what is best of these, and how fast we will reduce fuel use t almost zero.
This will give a result of what power is needed and least cost and reliable power.
CDM inputs require Efficiency consultants what is best measures. All, including this Inquiry, wants to avoid that type of consultant. Because they fear the answer, right in your face , as PlanetNL says.
Winston Adams
WA @ 09:37:
I made a similar analogy when developing risk curves for MF vs Isolated a few days ago – it seems to me that mathematically the oil guys didn't realize how to reduce variables in an analysis without skewing the result and outputting garbage.
Your method of reducing variables is correct – albeit generalized, but mathematically sound.
PENG2
OMG… I lost my breakfast again, thought I had already gotten over than faze. But when she went back to her vision and pie in the sky, that I heard so often 10 years ago, then up she comes, couldn't take it any more. (But not to worry I will have a better Christmas than those who lie on the stand through their teeth.) Yes the 3 top dogs had great visions but not great or convincing enough to keep them around to see it through or anywhere near completion. One resigned shortly after signing the term paper, another a year after sanction, and the third when the money ran out. Now stick to the straight and narrow and don't give me any more of your hog wash. And still waiting for the real questions and answers did we need THE POWER, and was it the LOWEST COST POWER back to the drawing board she said when she shot down the loan guarantee, hope the hell it had been and brought them back to some form of reality, the 13$ billion boondogglers says average Joe.
So, Simmons leads KD to suggests all reasonable options were considered in a reasonable way, but
1. the chart showed CDM was excluded, so he ignored that aspect.
2. then as to wind: she acknowledged our excellent wind resource but implied for Labrador was better, and for Nfld when the ML link is operating. But of of wind for the Isolated option? Properly considered she said.
They intended to add 25 MW of wind in 2014, then wait for another 13 years, 2027, i think to add another bit! When many AJs said something was wrong, they did another report, to silence the masses, to add 1370 MW, I think, plus battery storage for all of that to show a cost wind to replace Holyrood (as wind operated at 43% capacity factor , maybe 17 billion.
So, for wind, 25 MW or 1370 MW. Is any of those two reasonable?
PENG2 and I agree that reasonableness is the test, and this can often result to be optimum or approaching optimum.
Now 10% wind, so 175 MW on 1750 MW peak, for the island here is not a problem.
Texas is doing 20% wind, which sometimes permits 40 % of their load, and still adding more wind capacity. They are essentially an isolated system.
If we got up to 20% that means 350 MW of wind.
So inputs of 25 up to 350 MW is reasonable for analysis for wind resource for the Isolated. We have now only 54 MW,(2-3 %, so very little), so quick addition of 100 MW could be very cost effective, but run the various amounts and see, along with various inputs of CDM and small hydro.
Yet they go for only 25MW of wind and then jump to 1370 MW, two amounts that would have to be known initially is way off base as reasonable. Yet Simmons and KD this morning still misleading the public, and trying to mislead this Inquiry on the soundness of their analysis.
Maybe Leblanc needs a technical conference to sort out some of this, as so much BS being repeated. Make no wonder AJ throws up.
Now we hear more of tactics, and hit squads, and even the word conspiracy mentioned. Sounds Trump like measures being used here. But KW says we have the best civil service and governance in all of Canada. What a whopper. Nothing but the truth ?
Winston Adams
KD seems to think the FLG was insurance against financial catastrophe. Isn't this flat out wrong? The FLG terms hold ratepayers for all costs or the NL Government, don't they? KD appears to regard the FLG as a loan cosign where the risk transfers to the cosign. This would seem to be a crucial misunderstanding.
Overall, it appears that the great promoters and students of comparative cost analysis missed a most important principle option; What less risky options need be considered, to indefinitely defer the grand Muskrat Plan? A logical, fact based Feasibility Study conducted for modest cost, sometime between 1985 and 2000, might very well have resulted in major project deferral, while opting for more passive alternatives.
Even Theresa May, and cohorts now are seriously adopting a "No Brexit Plan".
Thank you all for continuing your valuable Shadow Inquiry activities.
Merry Christmas, and the best and Happiest New Year.
Robert
Off topic; To all those community volunteers, civil servants, sponsors, media, and in particular, the golfers themselves, a big thank you. You keep public spaces green, and put value in to sustainable ventures;
https://www.fin.gov.nl.ca/fin/publications/pa_2016/C.A._Pippy_Park_Comission.pdf
It is hard to keep listening, over and over again, the continued pushing down the throat of NL citizens what was and still is a contrived and well thought out plan to push through this Muskrat Falls fiasco.
Information and reports were bought and paid for that supported, and only supported, what government wanted done (and Nalcor was the vehicle to get it done, and Ed Martin made sure that it got done).
That is where we are.
Now what do (and what can we do) we do about it?
Have a coffee with your local councillor, MLA, MP. I am doing that this week.
Topic; What can I do in my own neighbourhood to help bring about a low carbon buildings, urban plan, food supply, sustainable future for my grandchildren? Solicit your political leadership to share your own views of where Society is headed. All is not lost, not even with the stupid Muskrat fiasco. I am an elder, and I will not quit nor shut up until…. Best seasons and thank you too, Maurice, for what you contribute to a better end result.
Agree with you Maurice, it's sickening. Her basic rational and thinking is flawed, and Eddie made sure of that. She says that she was convinced by the work that nalcor, and government had done that muskrat was a great project and had no doubt in her mind that it would work and for the time and figures that it had been sanctioned. But she only had it referred to the PUB, MHI, and others to convince the people and especially the naysayers that it was a good project. No, that is not the reason you get outside expertise and cold eyes reviews to convince the naysayers. You get outside reviews to confirm what you and nalcor have done is right and proper and no holes in it. To confirm to yourself. But these so called outside reviews were influenced greatly by nalcor, and government by giving them limited scope, telling them to check their numbers, rather than going out and get their own numbers. Plus nalcor changed reports, told them what they wanted in it, and put them on a short time leash of when they must submit their reviews. And she only got her reviews as doctored and filtered by nalcor. They kept what supported nalcor and discarded, berried, or cut out what did not. Reviews was a sham, they displayed for the people, and of course the real naysayers saw right through it immediately. For most of the people it took a little while, including this inquiry for a lot of the people to see through their phony reviews. But I stil,place my confidence in The Commissioner that he will do a proper review of all the reviews and give us the factual review on the 13$ billion boondoggle says average Joe.
You need to get out a bit Joe. Breathe a little deeper, shovel a senior's walk. It will all pass:-)
Thanks Robert for the friendly advice. BTW I am a senior too. I walk run every day regardless of the weather, not to mention I don't even use my snowblower, I rather use my snow pusher for exercise. But I have more get up and go than all those sitting on their duffs and pretending they are doing a good job, think they might be all drinking the nalcor coolaid too. Could write a hell of a lot more, but for now Robert, thanks for your concern, have a Merry Christmas and a Joyest Noel. Cheers, average Joe.
I hope that Tom the Finance man is paying attention, along with Rachel, the pipeline nutcase;
This drives a hole in the argument, everything is coming up roses, bye. As Peckford would say, forever and ever Offshore.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/18/business/energy-environment/oil-prices.html
Andrew Fitzgerald points out that Brian Crawley was Danny's man (chief of staff) and then about a year after Danny resigns, Crawley becomes a key player at Nalcor.
Who was Crawley loyal to?
I missed from 2:30 to 4:00. Did KD get questioned at all yet on no CDM for the Isolated case? She had her 2011 Energy efficiency plan ( a very glossy many page document)to reduce 20% by 2020, so that would have been 350MW reduction, essentially meeting average Holyrood winter generation, almost guaranteeing no need for MFs, so two opposing strategies. This was never implemented, as we still have the Nfld Power scalleywag Take Charge designed to do almost nothing. So who decided to scuttle the EE Plan? Was this a wing and a nod by Tom Johnson, Nfld Power, Nfld Hydro, Nalcor and govn?
Winston
Below is a sample of the accurate and reliable information the premier and cabinet relied on [Exerpt from the Sanctioning Decision document to cabinet ("Exhibit 00067")].
"the decommissioning of the Holyrood Thermal Generating Station…would lower fossil fuel use at Holyrood by 18,000 barrels of oil per day during peak heating season."
Fact (from email from Nalcor) : — Over a 10 year period Holyrood operated at capacity on average for less than 6 days a year (e.g. — 18 hours in 2011 and 8 hours in 2012).
So, less than 6 days a year at 18,000 bls per day agrees with that being the peak heating season, so a true statement is would appear. But as you realise they didn't define how long the peak heating season was, so many believe that the peak is going on for months. So it is misleading, so might be considered a false statement.
But as the intent was to mislead, as is most of the Nalcor analysis, and you do enough of this, and exclude full information, you manipulate so called independent consultants to reach the false conclusion you desire. So, you reach a false "least cost power" result.The method is in madness. Muskrat Madness.
Sign over Leblanc should read INQUIRY INTO MUSKRAT MADNESS.
This approach done over and over, and over and so 18,000 bls of oil just one example. Trumps has lied over 5000 times since President says the Washington Post. Someone should make a list of how many times Nalcor has misled to reach sanction, and since sanction.
Winston
DOES DUNDERDALE KNOW MORE NOW THAN SHE DISPLAYED AT SANCTION?
Upon reviewing the fremdschämen-inducing spectacle of Kathy Dunderdale's tortuous testimony at the Muskrat Falls Inquiry… it has become quite apparent… that this flustered, scatter-brained individual was as out of her depth as Premier of Newfoundland, as Donald Trump is as President of the United States of America.
Kathy Dunderdale testified that Ed Martin (Nalcor) failed to tell her that they possessed a risk report that gave the Muskrat Falls Project a 1-3% chance of being completed on time, and on budget.
If she had known she would not have sanctioned the project.
She also testified that she DIDN’T feel misled by Nalcor.
However, she is looking forward to Justice Leblanc’s report to see what went wrong?
I think I have just about heard it all!
I also agree with Maurice Adams.
It took all these days of testimony to hear evidence that Brian Crawley was King Danny’s chief of staff.
Less than a year after King Danny gave up his throne Crawley is now a key figure at Nalcor.
Although Dunderdale certainly tried to downplay any significance.
Things that make you go hmmmm……
get the attendance list for DW wedding in Florida !
Things that make you go hmmmm……
If MFs went years over schedule and billions over budget, she would not sanction she said. She eventually stated if it went to 10 billion she would not sanction. She speaks in cost not including tax, so 6.2 and 10 billion. So it implies say 9.5 billions would pass her smell test as so many benefits, so over 12 billion with interest included. Easy to see why a hidden risk of 497 million had no impact on her, nor any at Nalcor little cared of costs increases by billions. So risk appetite, interest not included: Locke 8 billion, KD and EM 10 billion, DW 99 maybe billion.
Also KD says even if Quebec sold power at a rate that was favourable for the ratepayers, it would go nowhere because of political issues.It confirms Alteen's statements yesterday that MFs was a political project, cost was a non issue, but they mislead the public saying least cost to get it sanctioned. Even now at 12.7 billion all these con artists say it is a good project, and see nothing significant that went wrong.
The biggest screw up in Nfld history, since our regiment was ordered over the top in 1916, and these people don't see anything they done wrong. A betrayal, nothing less.
PF
PF, they can say they "don't see anything wrong" with a straight face because they are sociopaths. It would be interesting to see them answer questions from inside a functional MRI scanner to see which parts of their reptilian brains are being used. That way we could weed out the sociopaths without empathy from the fools that are too dumb to know the difference.