If you live in Newfoundland, you know all about wind. There’s the natural kind… and then there’s
the wind that keeps carpetbaggers aloft until the easy money disappears.
“If you got the juice we got the use,” Kathy Dunderdale was
fond of quoting the New England Governors, the cost of producing the power
never entering the equation.
fond of quoting the New England Governors, the cost of producing the power
never entering the equation.
“Even if we produce everything we have here at Muskrat
Falls and Gull Island, we still wouldn’t fit all the energy demands south of
the border,” the CBC quoted Kirby Mercer in a story posted back in June.
Falls and Gull Island, we still wouldn’t fit all the energy demands south of
the border,” the CBC quoted Kirby Mercer in a story posted back in June.
Mercer is the spokesperson for Beothuck Energy’s proposed wind
power project in St. George’s Bay.
power project in St. George’s Bay.
Like Dunderdale, economics seems not to matter to him either.
It is true that the American appetite for power — especially
the clean variety — is significant. But the same
latitude does not hold for the price that American consumers are willing to pay
for carbon-free electricity.
the clean variety — is significant. But the same
latitude does not hold for the price that American consumers are willing to pay
for carbon-free electricity.
ISO New England is the body that administers the wholesale
electrical market in that region. The group holds daily auctions to ensure it
gets the lowest possible wholesale price from competing power producers.
electrical market in that region. The group holds daily auctions to ensure it
gets the lowest possible wholesale price from competing power producers.
Last year, according to statistics released, the price per kWh
went below two cents and achieved a high of less than ten cents. The average price of electricity purchased by ISO New England in 2016 was
approximately 2.8 cents per kWh – the lowest since 2003 (see “Fast Facts” exhibit on left).
went below two cents and achieved a high of less than ten cents. The average price of electricity purchased by ISO New England in 2016 was
approximately 2.8 cents per kWh – the lowest since 2003 (see “Fast Facts” exhibit on left).
Mild winter temperatures contributed to lower
demand by 29% compared with 2015. But even in that year, electricity prices
were higher by an average of only 1.2 cents per kWh. (Source: ISO New England 2016 Annual Markets Report) And those numbers are not net to the producer. Transmission (wheeling) fees, management and operating expenses further diminish the returns to the electricity sellers.That is one issue. Another is that the overall value of the New England market has been in decline at least since 2008 evidenced by the Exhibit below. Either way you cut it gross revenues of 2.8 – 4.0 cents per kWh won’t even nearly pay for Beothuck’s proposed wind farm. Put differently, the project won’t materialize in the absence of major subsidy.
demand by 29% compared with 2015. But even in that year, electricity prices
were higher by an average of only 1.2 cents per kWh. (Source: ISO New England 2016 Annual Markets Report) And those numbers are not net to the producer. Transmission (wheeling) fees, management and operating expenses further diminish the returns to the electricity sellers.That is one issue. Another is that the overall value of the New England market has been in decline at least since 2008 evidenced by the Exhibit below. Either way you cut it gross revenues of 2.8 – 4.0 cents per kWh won’t even nearly pay for Beothuck’s proposed wind farm. Put differently, the project won’t materialize in the absence of major subsidy.
The 685 megawatt carbon-free Pilgrim nuclear plant near Boston
is slated to close in 2019. New York will lose two reactors — and two gigawatts
— at Indian Point between 2020 and 2021.
is slated to close in 2019. New York will lose two reactors — and two gigawatts
— at Indian Point between 2020 and 2021.
Hydro Quebec (HQ) is already a huge player in that market, but
it isn’t the only one. According to a recent article in the Globe and Mail,
Massachusetts evaluators “are picking through bids… from 40 companies other
than Hydro Quebec” and New York has “received more than 200 proposals for
auctions to meet a state goal of sourcing 50 per cent of its power from clean
sources by 2030.”
it isn’t the only one. According to a recent article in the Globe and Mail,
Massachusetts evaluators “are picking through bids… from 40 companies other
than Hydro Quebec” and New York has “received more than 200 proposals for
auctions to meet a state goal of sourcing 50 per cent of its power from clean
sources by 2030.”
With prices and competition like that, and the acknowledgement
that intermittent wind needs mixing with a more stable source like hydro, the
green-field Beothuck project will be left sucking wind without major subsidy
and a power purchase agreement.
that intermittent wind needs mixing with a more stable source like hydro, the
green-field Beothuck project will be left sucking wind without major subsidy
and a power purchase agreement.
As much as many American states want to fight climate change,
few are willing to ignore “destructive” hydro in favour of alternatives.
“We would ideally like to see wind and solar replace Indian Point,”
the Globe and Mail quoted Robert Freudenberg, a vice president for energy and
environment at the Regional Plan Association, an urban research and advocacy
group. “But we’re not naive enough to think that we can get there that
quickly.”
few are willing to ignore “destructive” hydro in favour of alternatives.
“We would ideally like to see wind and solar replace Indian Point,”
the Globe and Mail quoted Robert Freudenberg, a vice president for energy and
environment at the Regional Plan Association, an urban research and advocacy
group. “But we’re not naive enough to think that we can get there that
quickly.”
It seems that many on the west coast of this province didn’t
get the memo.
get the memo.
Here at home, Nalcor refuses to acknowledge the basic economic
principle of elasticity of demand, even as the government ponders 17 cents per
kWh — and a subsidy of at least another half a billion dollars annually for 50
years, after 2020-21, to fund Muskrat. (See Muskrat Subsidies Will Cause Gov’t Debt Spiral). Unlike Nalcor, ISO New England is unconcerned about legacy; its mandate is customer satisfaction. The Exhibit (below) confirms who is saddled with power generation risk and it isn’t the ratepayer.
__________________________________________________________
principle of elasticity of demand, even as the government ponders 17 cents per
kWh — and a subsidy of at least another half a billion dollars annually for 50
years, after 2020-21, to fund Muskrat. (See Muskrat Subsidies Will Cause Gov’t Debt Spiral). Unlike Nalcor, ISO New England is unconcerned about legacy; its mandate is customer satisfaction. The Exhibit (below) confirms who is saddled with power generation risk and it isn’t the ratepayer.
__________________________________________________________
_
_________________________________________________________
Not just Nalcor but the public, too, are unable to
conceive notions of surplus and of selling power at a fraction of what it costs
to produce.
Not just Nalcor but the public, too, are unable to
conceive notions of surplus and of selling power at a fraction of what it costs
to produce.
Seemingly, cost be damned. Communities on the west coast
region, bolstered by Corner Brook, just want their own boondoggle.
region, bolstered by Corner Brook, just want their own boondoggle.
People are truly willing to sacrifice their children’s future
on the pretext of inter-generational equity (that’s the scheme with which Nalcor justifies
repayment of unsustainable debt to be kicked down the road). The Corner Brook Board of Trade
is even prepared to up the ante — which brings us back to the subject of Beothuck
Energy’s wind project.
on the pretext of inter-generational equity (that’s the scheme with which Nalcor justifies
repayment of unsustainable debt to be kicked down the road). The Corner Brook Board of Trade
is even prepared to up the ante — which brings us back to the subject of Beothuck
Energy’s wind project.
In August, five west coast Mayors put out a Press Release
asking a penniless provincial government “to get on board.”
asking a penniless provincial government “to get on board.”
What did they mean?
In the Release, the Mayors acknowledged “… the enormous
opportunity [represented by the Beothuck proposal] to establish a wind mill
fabrication facility in the Port of Corner Brook which could see up to 600 new
jobs created in the area.”
opportunity [represented by the Beothuck proposal] to establish a wind mill
fabrication facility in the Port of Corner Brook which could see up to 600 new
jobs created in the area.”
This blogger set out to scour every Press Release reported by
the media looking for three magic words as to why Beothuck might
relentlessly pursue the development. It turns out that the words were easy to
find.
They are “Power Purchase Agreement”, of course.
The Press Release stated: “The Mayors agreed that it is essential to work with the
Province of Newfoundland to secure a power purchase agreement for this project
to ensure that we have first player advantage…” (bold added).
Giving Beothuck that “power purchase agreement” is, in fact,
what the Mayors mean by getting “on board”.
Those community leaders, ostensibly, were echoing Beothuck’s spokesperson,
Kirby Mercer. Mercer told the Western Star:
“I think it’s going to be awful hard for the government to say no to
this opportunity, because if we don’t take it, it’s going to happen somewhere
else in Atlantic Canada.”
Kirby Mercer. Mercer told the Western Star:
“I think it’s going to be awful hard for the government to say no to
this opportunity, because if we don’t take it, it’s going to happen somewhere
else in Atlantic Canada.”
Ah… first player advantage… someone else might get the prize… if
we don’t dive into the deep end first. Kirby might have been practising Danny
Williams’ script: ‘let’s screw ourselves in order to screw Quebec.’
What is a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)?
It is a “take or pay” agreement under which the Province (in this case) is
expected to guarantee the purchase/sale of the power — at a pre-determined price. It is the deal that shifts the risk of financial loss from the developer
to the Government.
expected to guarantee the purchase/sale of the power — at a pre-determined price. It is the deal that shifts the risk of financial loss from the developer
to the Government.
The Dunderdale Government imposed just such a “PPA” on NL Hydro allowing
for the return of capital, interest and dividends in order to secure the
Federal Loan Guarantee for the Muskrat Falls project. In case you have
forgotten, that PPA requires that you pay 100% of the costs of Muskrat for only
40% of the power — most of which won’t be needed anyway.
for the return of capital, interest and dividends in order to secure the
Federal Loan Guarantee for the Muskrat Falls project. In case you have
forgotten, that PPA requires that you pay 100% of the costs of Muskrat for only
40% of the power — most of which won’t be needed anyway.
It’s a developer’s dream; a veritable guarantee of a continued
stream of profit over the entire duration of the contract (except, of course, if it is beyond the government’s fiscal capacity).
stream of profit over the entire duration of the contract (except, of course, if it is beyond the government’s fiscal capacity).
The only part of the promise that the public usually hears
is ‘short-term construction jobs.’
is ‘short-term construction jobs.’
Camouflage is provided under the guise of “first player
advantage.” The role of community support is to stampede the government into
another foolish decision under the threat that several other ostensibly foolish
governments in Atlantic Canada will jump ahead of us.
advantage.” The role of community support is to stampede the government into
another foolish decision under the threat that several other ostensibly foolish
governments in Atlantic Canada will jump ahead of us.
The municipal minds behind Corner Brook, Burgeo, Deer Lake,
Stephenville and Port Aux Basques seem not to mind being used, perhaps
wittingly, as pawns in the scheme.
I’m betting there’s a Mayor Ball out there somewhere!
There are more than a few contractors in Deer Lake
salivating at the very thought of even a mini-Muskrat.
There are more than a few contractors in Deer Lake
salivating at the very thought of even a mini-Muskrat.
And, evidently, Beothuck Energy won’t be satisfied with just a
PPA. It wants icing on the cake… and a cherry on top.
PPA. It wants icing on the cake… and a cherry on top.
The Mayors said that they want the provincial government, the
Port Corporation and Beothuck Energy “to map out a collective pro-active plan
to secure the opportunity from this investment.”
Port Corporation and Beothuck Energy “to map out a collective pro-active plan
to secure the opportunity from this investment.”
In late July, the Greater Corner Brook Board of Trade even
hosted a luncheon so that speakers from the Port Authority and Memorial
University’s Grenfell Campus could discuss “the potential economic impact of
developing the industry.”
hosted a luncheon so that speakers from the Port Authority and Memorial
University’s Grenfell Campus could discuss “the potential economic impact of
developing the industry.”
According to the Western Star newspaper the port corporation’s business development manager told the
Board that “the port is positioning itself to possibly do an infill of the
Brakes Cove area to create enough land to house a facility to construct
gravity-based structures for Beothuk’s wind turbines.”
Board that “the port is positioning itself to possibly do an infill of the
Brakes Cove area to create enough land to house a facility to construct
gravity-based structures for Beothuk’s wind turbines.”
Wait! There’s more.
Beothuck has to get its wind power to the U.S. market.
 |
| Kirby Mercer |
On June 13, 2017 the CBC reported Beothuck’s strategy:
“That’s designed really to fit within the Newfoundland grid
system and to be able to export via the Maritime Link… There’s excess capacity
on that link and we plan to fill it with offshore wind,” the broadcaster quoted
Kirby Mercer.
system and to be able to export via the Maritime Link… There’s excess capacity
on that link and we plan to fill it with offshore wind,” the broadcaster quoted
Kirby Mercer.
Mr. Mercer did not say how much, if anything, his company was
prepared to pay or how much room there might be on the 500 MW line. Not even
Nalcor has that answer — the crown corporation having forgotten to ask the good
Dr. Wade Locke if demand elasticity also applies to power, he having omitted
the thorny subject from his own boosterism.
prepared to pay or how much room there might be on the 500 MW line. Not even
Nalcor has that answer — the crown corporation having forgotten to ask the good
Dr. Wade Locke if demand elasticity also applies to power, he having omitted
the thorny subject from his own boosterism.
All interesting stuff… and what’s really strange is that,
after being kicked around for years, the Ball Government still hasn’t told
Beothuck Energy to go fly a kite.
Perhaps, as some have suggested, there are some powerful
people who want a share of the spoils.
people who want a share of the spoils.
With a billion dollars on offer — and possibly a PPA, too —
more than likely the five west coast Mayors aren’t the only windbags keeping
keep this project aloft.
more than likely the five west coast Mayors aren’t the only windbags keeping
keep this project aloft.
Energy scams, bolstered by PPA's seem to be de rigeur in NL. The chump, as always is the abused rate/taxpayer stuck with paying for uneconomic, unneeded projects.
Wind farms are now unhinged from shallow water marine environments. Floating windmills in water up to 800 M deep now can be far enough offshore to avoid conflict with coastal interests, yet close enough to markets that they will avoid wheeling fees. Remote transmission through multiple jurisdictions is no longer cost effective regardless the source of energy.
Bruno, you and others have a vision of the benefits of distributed generation based on renewable energy sources. The time has come for projects such as the Beothuk scheme. Why NLrs, in opposition to progress, take the character assassination approach is painful and non constructive. Wind energy might have been one option to defer the building of Muskrat, had not local opposition and ignorance got in the way. West coast interests in wind farming needs to be supported. Lessons learned from the past bad decisions need to be applied to correct the ship's course towards the future.
It is thorny Robert. As you know I am all for wind and sun energy. PPA's however remove the risk from the proponent. Disasters like MF result when energy policy is driven by narrow political interest and not concern for the ratepayer. It matters not what the energy source, a boondoggle is a boondoggle.
A NL windfarm to supply New England is a fiscal non starter. The wheeling fees are higher than the wholesale value. How can this ever make money? Unless New England signs the PPA, NOT NL ratepayers, this is a scam.
The new energy system must be driven by rational, lowest cost, clean alternatives, not political patronage without democratic oversight. The US takes seriously the "free market" and stupid or corrupt utilities go bust. In Canada our compromised, unaccountable utilities live beyond fiscal or democratic oversight.
Feudal wind schemes are just as abhorrent as feudal hydro scams.
Robert, I agree with Bruno on this one:for these reason, whether you agree
1. Cannot afford another boondoggle.
2. Nfld load is mostly on the Avalon, wind at several location on the Avalon would have made sense instead of MF
3. Onshore wind is much less cost and less in tranmission losses.
4. Current US prices for energy will not pay for west Nfld wind, so a burden on ratepayers here.
5. Things in the future may change 20 years down the road, maybe, if there is a big push for renewables and US price go up, but wind generally best if closer………in Texas they use a lot of wind energy and transmit a couple of hundred miles which is economic…….but that is also onshore wind.
6. Mercer has a bad track record…..pump and dump approach on Imperial Venture……….takes a good salary , but nothing for others………I posted on this here several months back
Winston
Could also add that Nalcor committment to Emera allows them to use our hydro to anchor NS wind for stability purpose, an asset that Nfld gets no benefit and impacts negatively the amount of wind can be added on the island. Outfoxed all around.
WA
From the smell of Muskrat perhaps outskunked is more appropriate Winston.
Even Bruno has SOME understanding of economics……I mean would W Buffett buy into either Muskrat or Beothuk…certainly not.
Those commenting see the scam for what it is……..about time Nfld woke up and demand accountability of our government for our tax dollars.
Let them get the contract for sales from the USA and pay a wheeling fee to Nalcor.
But,If MF was operational at 900MW from there toward Soldiers Pond, at preset time we would sending at least 500MW over the Maritime Link……….so no spare capacity on that link.
Until we see if MF will produce or not, Nalcor will not consider the wind scheme……..or so it would seem.
INVESTOR
Mercer is the same guy who owned Canadian Imperial Venture Capital, the crowd who said there was commercially available oil on the Port au Port peninsula. Never produced a barrell of oil but they raised millions in worthless penny stocks while putting local services providers out of business. Dwight Ball and Siobhan Coady will not say no to Mercer while his boasts his wind project might produce hundreds of jobs in western Newfoundland no matter what the price to taxpayers. Finally, why has Mercer made no public comment after Nova Scotia publicly (Halifax Chronicle Herald) backed away from his project idea there 3 weeks ago?
Right on UG …your are right out in front again…inform enough people especially out CB way that we can't afford another boondoggle. But we all know the West coast always like they are way out there like Bc the west coast of Canada, and if the East Coast can have a boondoggle, then they want their very own boondoggle too, well it's only fair, one west coast man said..maybe his name is ball too. For Gods sake get a grip and tell mercer to fly the f….k. But if he wants his very own windmill then pay his own piper, and don't come to tax papers and rate payers for money we don't got.
Beothuk has secured $2 billion in private funding from CIP. This isn't gambling with taxpayers money. The energy produced from this offshore wind farm would be way cheaper per kWh than that coming out of Muskrat.
cheaper than Muskrat is a rather low bar. The only relevant question is can it make money?
The answer is a resounding NO! So just why should the NL ratepayer be on the hook for a PPA for another money loser?
The PPA that this guy needs must come from the USA export market and the people of NL will need to have its share of the sales, after all the wind is ours and the unsightly environmental issues from windmills will be ours. As for capacity on the maritime link, it needs to carry as much Muskratsco power and energy to export market as possible to provide a small help in paying down the massive cost of the Muskratsco debt to the people of NL.
Yes, you sound like a west coast man too, like our west coast wind, and our west coast mess, as if there was no wind in cape Breton, or cape race or cape bauld, not to mention New England wind, the wind blows there too.as for the ppa, tell mercer to come back from the good old us of a, with his ppa all signed, sealed and sanctioned. And best to talk with UG, he said get on board means get the ppa from nl, the same place that NALCOR got it's ppa, not in the us of a. Yes jump on the gravy train and ship power on the emera maritime link, plus another underwater cable….and price your power in New England then, are you back to the 17 cents or 30 cents kWh and see who will buy it …when the going rate is 4 cents. Boondoggle…for f…ks sake.
Anom @ 10:22: At around 8 to 10 cents a kilowatt hour wind can turn a profit in the american market. I seriously doubt whether an electricity rate of 2 to 4 cents per kilowatt/hour will survive since many producers simply cannot operate at these low prices and will eventually fold thus forcing prices back up again within a five year span. The real danger to NL power production will come from home grown solar, battery storage and efficiencies. We are about witness a revolution in energy production in that individual homes in sunny climates will be able to completely live off grid producing energy for all their needs. The EV type batteries will be the storage mechanism that can enable a fossil fuel free automobile AND feed back into the household when solar can't produce energy. We are very close to this now with the development of Lithium metal ( not Lithium ion-METAL) batteries that can store up to three times as much energy as Lithium ion batteries. As for wind there are many ways to reduce the costs and having wind turbines located all across a large geographical area so that a number of turbines are producing at any time is one method. There are numerous other ways that when prices are lowered, it forces producers to find ways to cut costs, be more efficient and competitive. This is something a hydro dam or nuclear plant can't do since their costs are mostly capital costs fixed for long terms at around 30 to 50 years and fossil fuel producers are at the mercy of the major oil producing areas.
It makes nio difference anyway. NL Power is mandated to buy power from NL Hydro as Nalcor dictates. MF must be paid back by us poor serfs. Any reduction in demand will increase our taxes. Wind and solar can be free but we must buy from the NL Hydro /Power grid.
Anom 10:22: The only "Man" who made a mess of this province is a certain ambulance chasing lawyer from St. John's who conceived the Boondoggle called Muskrat Falls.
Anom: 1832 not going to disagree with you on that one. But What do we do now, the 15$ Billion question. Let's not create another boondoggle, and start chasing pie in the sky, like wind that is everywhere and bafoons like mercer. And we have another bafoons for premier whose only solution is we gotta finish muskrat strong. What a farce,….so that we can moth ball it, or loose more money. He should have haulted it the day he became premier, and tried to figure out then the best course of action for the peoples benifit, but his hollow words were, gotta get her done, boys… The silly fool, he had. 10 years to figure that out , and that's the best he could come up with…better that dunderdale was still there, at least we could hold her totally responsible along with the man. But now they all have bloody hands, the blooming lot of them. They should throw up every time they look in the mirror, and hang their heads in shame.
https://www.municipalnl.ca/person/mayor-dean-ball/
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The Conference Board of Canada is going to be presenting a sociocultural analysis pf the proposed offshore wind farm and its knock-on effects in Q1 of 2018.
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And such is the Muskrat Falls Boondoggle that we are faced with. The much cheaper option of Wind Turbines combined with battery and pumped hydro storage has been left to wither in the air while we pay for Danny Williams boondoggle. Any one disputing this must remember that a hydro dam is only a storage system for solar energy that enables a combination of rain fall and gravity to convert it into electricity. It is high time we disbanded NALCOR ( NALCOR in itself is a complete failure with its insistence on overpriced Mega Projects like Muskrat Falls and GBS systems that feed future oil royalties into the present day construction industry-a subsidy on a massive scale) and privatise NL Hydro with the electricity market opened to a free market system where by small efficient producers are able to sign long term deals with individuals and companies not much different than any other industry and transmitted on a consumer owned and operated coop system grid to distribute the electricity. It is high time the provincial government got out of the electricity industry all together. The posters can rant and rave all they like but we have destroyed our future with insistence on building a false economy on Mega Projects that produce overpriced, short term unionized construction jobs that with future generations left to pay the bills. In the case of electricity it will be a combination of rates and taxes while with the GBS systems it will be paid for by the lost royalties as the oil is sent to markets. Beothuk Energy is just another scheme along these lines like Com by Chance, Labrador Linerboard, Sprung Greenhouses and now Muskrat Falls that countless NL’ers followed to the Bankruptcy courts.
Mercer seems to by one of the usual carpet-begging suspects that continues plaguing the province. On another related subject, that being the Nalcor/Emera deal, who are the shareholders in Emera? Who bought those shares after, or maybe even before, the Nalcor/Emera deal was struck? This story has not been told and explained in a clear, simple and concise manner to ordinary Newfoundland and Labrador taxpayers.
There are reports of a large uptick in Emera trades just before the public announcement of the deal. You are spot on that this needs an investigation.
Anom @ 11:02: I believe another term for carpet baggers could be ambulance chasing lawyers and real estate agents and developers.
Tom Adams on target again;
http://www.tomadamsenergy.com/2017/10/16/plea-to-federal-government-mitigate-the-harm-you-have-caused-at-muskrat-falls/
Robert I pitched Tom hard to give evidence at the MF JRP. He could not be coaxed into testifying despite all the reservations he raises here and more environmental risks I raised. Better late than never but I wish he had spoken up before irrevocable decisions were made.
Beothuk Energy has proposed this project for 5 years. It started off as a western NL project but then it expanded to other projects in Atlantic Canada. But no province has signed on and Nova Scotia which already has onshore wind generation as part of their electricity grid has backed away from the Beothuk proposal. Sounds like NL is the last hope for Beothuk Energy.
Yes and Kirby Mercer indicated then financing was in place which clearly it wasn't . Seems like a lot of negativity and question marks building on company and the players involved — rightfully so !!
As long as there are enept politicians (and there were/are many) in NL, Carpetbaggers will forever be doing their pitch.–we're ripe for the picking
Every time I have asked the question, who are the shareholders, the info has been denied due to Commerical Sensitivity.
I have info on who the shareholders are but I need verification before commenting on it Public ally
Wayne R Bennett
Any questionable lobbying efforts going on here ?? Any former political leaders / government officials involved ??? Your big time on to something Wayne !!
All previously listed information has been removed Beothuk's website. https://www.beothukenergy.com/
In the past I have asked Beothuk what sort of studies had been done to prove the feasibility of dumping that much wind energy into the Maritimes and Newfoundland grids but never received an answer. Based on this and their claimed price for power I suspected they were fly-by-night operators who would soon vanish.
Hiding maybe in fear of the real facts and truth to come out ????
Real leaders and ethical business people stand up and are up front !!
Mercer's proposed wind farm in the ice-infested waters of St. George's Bay makes the Sprung greenhouse look like a worthwhile investment.
With regards to a bunch of municipal politicians from the remote hinterlands urging the provincial government to "get on board" and piss away even more taxpayers' money on foolhardy ventures, isn't propping up aging paper mills and failing ski hills in dying communities enough for them? Apparently, no… unfortunately those dullards appear to be cut from the same clothe of ineptitude that most NL politicians are cut from… just fritter and waste scarce tax dollars on any silly, harebrained scheme that'll create a few lousy jobs and get the proles onto pogey, economic viability be damned.
These people truly are their own worst enemies.
Alfie: are you referring to the remote hinterlands of St. John's that produced DW?
Beothuk………how do they make money…….
Seems at the appropriate time, they make an announcement that the scheme is a go………then issue 10 million shares at 10 cents each, so 1 million raised………enough to take a large salary for Mercer for a couple of years.
With an occasional fluff piece promoted through the Telegram and CBC, of enhancements to the plan, the stock is pumped up to 1 or 2 dollars, a 10 or 20 fold increase. Those in the know selling at appropriate times, and those in charge with low cost stock options……..who get out with their gains……..and the suckers left to grieve.
Wouldn`t touch it with a 100 ft pole………..but many prefer the poor odds over blue chip stocks…….since there are suckers who don`t look at the details…….Muskrateers at one time some 80 percent of the population( knowing nothing of investments, and not knowing if ELASTICITY is made of green cheese)………all suckers, even dragging down the enlightened, with our wasted taxes.
UG taking some 5 years to enlighten a few, and turning the tide.
INVESTOR
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another old classic pump and dump stock scheme ??? Something smells here in huge way !
Cripers UG, when are you going to run for office??
God only knows how much the province needs the likes of you, Vardy, Barry, and Martin et al right now…
The major issue is power space on the Maritime Link. It is unlikely that any Government is going to make the same mistake again through providing a back stopper PPA. The danger is that they could be possibly convinced to allow this wind system to go ahead without any Government funds or subsidies of any kind but guarantee power access on the 500 MW Maritime link.
If the New England states are in fact serious about boosting wind power within their grids then Bay St. George can produce about 30% more power for the same generation investment and have a 30% higher capacity factor (availability of power). The problem is getting the power to New England. Even if the Maritime Link is not fully utilized all the time the conflict will occur during peak periods. What happens when the reservoirs for the 2075 MW of hydro power are full and need to either spill water or move it to market. The Bay St. George usage would require Nalcor to spill an equivalent amount of water. This would further erode the measly amount of return Nalcor will receive from selling power off the island.
In other words Muskrat Falls is making all and other future electrical generating projects uneconomical before they even hit the development stage. We never see another project launched here in NL because of the costs and infrastructure agreements in place from Muskrat Falls even if it is the best thing since sliced bread.
What galls me the most is to hear the likes of Wade Locke from MUN economics department on CBC saying "It was the best decision based on the information we had at the time." when no one including Wade Locke spoke out as to why the PUB wasn't allowed to review the Boondoggle called Muskrat Falls.
This article probably explains why Beothic's project is not feasible. The new England states want a home grown, local and job producing system of offshore Wind Turbines with all the technology that goes with it.
https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/wind/deepwater-wind-aims-to-bring-economic-benefits-20171023
Deepwater wind paired with Tesla battery storage close to the consumer. This is the future here now.
Read it and weep Gull Island daydreamers.
A combination of Wind, Pumped Hydro somewhere on the Avalon and flow batteries would have been more cost effective and easier on the environment than Muskrat Falls.
All conversations regarding other sources of power than MF is Moot. No other company is permitted to compete with NL Hydro/NL Power to whom we'll be paying their set prices because AGAIN MF has to be paid for, period!!
Wayne:
Wind will not be developed in Nl but it will be developed else where and in direct competition with the sale of electricity from Muskrat Falls especially along the eastern seaboard of the US. That is why the discussion is not mute but crucial.
Wayne…….most seem to ignore that customer Efficiency is technically considered a source of power.
Basically, inefficiency in electricity use is existing energy wasted ( baseboard heaters and transmission losses on the lines)……..efficient use of electricity frees up that electricity. Efficient electric heat uses 65 percent less electricity….and costs one third less to install that any new generation. Nalcor nor the government can prevent customers from doing this……..yet this is in competition with MF energy sales……..and is happening exponentially.
It should have been encouraged and incentives given to customers , as in NS, instead of the boondoggle approach.
Key takeaway:Customer Efficiency (via all means) is THE lowest cost power source…………and cannot be prevented.And it is a worry to the Take Charge Scallywags, who wants to impede it.
Winston
Anon @ 13:56
Whatever reduction in the sale of MF power, whether thru decreased demand locally or reduced sales to the eastern seaboard, ratepayers of NL will have rates increased or taxes increased or both to pay for the shortfall in revenue. Like I said MF has to be paid for and NL ratepayers are on the hook regardless.
Agreed , likely both……increased rates, partially offset by reduced kwh used, but increased taxes or reduced services.
For Locke to say it was the right decision based on the information at the time ………..what BS……when you ignore information available…..as he did.
WA
Maybe I should get a brownie point for first, by chance, using the word Fiasco to describe Muskrat Falls on this blow several months ago. My work on cost effective alternative electric space heat for Nfld may be more important……but who knows (certainly not Wade Locke)
At the time I gave the meaning of the words boondoggle, debacle fiasco etc. Now even Bob Wakeham of the Telly uses fiasco.
I suppose it catches on as a part of sounding nice with two consecutive words with the letter F…..Muskrat Falls Fiasco.
But, I had missed the Urban Dictionary meaning of fiasco. The Urban dictionary is the common language (what Trump would call Locker room talk).
Here it is.
Fiasco: A complete Fuckup.
This is what the Inquiry is to get to the bottom of. Explain how Muskrat falls became a complete Fuckup, and who was responsible.
My poor mother would never approve of my using such language, and I rarely do………but the gravity of the situation calls for frankness, in language that the common Joe (or Dan) would understand.And can MF be described in any better common language……getting down to brass tacks say.
Winston Adams
Winston, an inquiry will not point fingers at he who is the prime cause of this "fuckup". Those who testify will have the "I don't recall and I don't remember" answers, for fear of a lawsuit. Being under oath means nothing where there are "memory lapses" The exalted one has too much influence , still! A Forensic Audit should be happening first with a paper trail which would be fodder for an Inquiry and the chips will fall where they may. Lawsuits cannot touch financial paperwork with "John Henry" signed documents.
Wade Locke should be one of the first to be called to explain his lack of economic sense.
Right on Winston. A great descriptive word…a complete fuck up. And it's even worst that that, if there were any better words to describe it, but there are probably not, that the average dan could understand. The best word I have us mind boggling, for my little brain anyway. It's like I was deciding I was going to reinvent the atomic bomb all on my own. Now that would be bind boggling to me where would I start and how would I get there, if I had as much hair as Einstein, I would have it all thorn out, maybe that's why his hair stood on ends. When you throw in our tiny population, no heavy industry, big island more wind and rain than we know what to do with, an island, muskrat 1100 km away, the pole line, the north spur, no experience in building a project of that magnitude, no expertise in the field, no money to do the job, all public money, and on and on, my god what idiots. Yep , it boggles my tiny brain….and all for what, to get one up on Quebec. Someone give me a knock over the head to see if I am still alive, or is it one big Danny dream.
I used to believe that Accountants always reported the facts.
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/10/24/Will-NDPEnd-BC-Hydro-Wild-West-Accounting/
Keep a sharp lookout on the NALCOR books. Is your Auditor up to speed?
Continuing subsidies for the fossil fuel business; Where are the gas fired generators? Emera will participate in the "rescue buyout" of Muskrat; Energy supply monopolies need tight regulation.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/irving-oil-natural-gas-price-new-brunswick-nova-scotia-1.4365195
It seemed like a matter of time before natural gas got more use in NS, and this would be detrimental to NSP 17 cent electricity rates, if low cost gas can also fuel electricity generation with gas turbines and reducing electricity use for space heat and hot water.
This would possibly lower electricity rates in NS, speed up getting off coal, and also impede imports of MF power. And the possibility of imports of NS power by Nfld Power, bypassing Nalcor…….what next…
Yet gas is not climate change friendly, and considered a bridge fuel until more renewable electricity come on stream.
Yet , in the short run, it seems more bad news for Nalcor and MF, and an opportunity for Emera to invest, at fire sale prices, for a portion of MF generation, for long term move to renewable electricity.
Likely another win for NS and loss for Nfld and ratepayers here.
Is this a likely outcome Robert…….what is your thoughts.
Winston
Some years ago, in a political strategy to "cash in" on potential offshore oil and gas wealth, NS leased back the Crown Share of this asset to the Federal Government. The $millions from Federal Reserves were risked in exploration activity, which after 40 years or so, has come up dry. It appears that the gas distribution in Atlantic Canada must rely on imported gas. In the long term, I do not foresee displacement of coal fired generation with Natural Gas. Tidal, solar, geothermal, hydro generation can supply managed power demand for the long term needs in Atlantic Canada.
We also expect consumer gas prices to skyrocket if the Irving deal goes through. Gas is already expensive for the limited distribution.
Ches Crosbie is announcing his decision to run for the PC leadership this evening……timed to make the evening TV news.
Location: Quidi Vidi Brewery ………inviting supporters.
Nothing like free, low cost alcohol to attract supporters.
Same old approach used for a hundred years………a free drink of rum or beer and you have my vote b'ye.
The Innu Nation in Labrador have women and children marching to discourage alcohol use as an election gimick. Ches must think it still has value locally…….and gives the impression of supporting a local industry. What would our health minister say?
John always liked his drink. And Ches''s hero .Churchill said he got more out of alcohol then alcohol got out of him. In reality, he did not drink that much……. but was a good prop , with a cigar……a man's man.
I ask
1. What is your platform and policy
2 who are your key advisers………….pray tell not wade Locke!!!!!!!!!!
Locke , in the CBC story says he has quit drinking……..if only he did that before his analysis of the MF scheme.
PF
Crosbie said he'd pull the government funding wasted on propping up that bloody Marble Mountain money pit, so that's a good start. Imagine, unionized ski lift attendants… that's bloody-well absurd.
Anom @ 18:59: So you're going to solve a $1.1 Billion dollar deficit by pulling funding of around $18 million from marble mountain (not that I agree Marble Mountain should be subsidized-it shouldn't). It is the lack of common sense economics like that that has got us in the mess we are in. There ar three areas and only tthree areas that are in need of a desperate overall to solve the monetary problems in this province. One is health care and that will take at least ten years and it involves a combination of reduced funding and a change of lifestyle which I see neither being implemented by any elected government. I am willing to bet there is as much spent on junk food like Potato Chips, Tim Hortons and Mcdonalds to name a few than that which is spent on taxes directed at many areas of health. The second is education or rather the fact we are training people for jobs that will never exist here such as construction jobs across all spectrums in the mega project industry. The third is Muskrat Falls and there isn't any solution to this but bite the bullet and pay for it. These are the three main areas and only these three which will incur laying off upwards of ten thousand people. No politician seeking election will do this and PLEASE!!! Stop the townie mentality that it is everyone else's fault for a fiscal mess off which everyone had a finger in the pie especially the civil service in the capital city. Any other areas such as cutting funding to a ski hill (which should be done) won't mean diddly squat. As for Beothic, the economics aren't there as they weren't there for Muskrat Falls and it is to bad the same opposition and outrage to the Boondoggle wasn't there when your beloved Messiah was cramming it down the provinces throat. We wouldn't be in this mess if it was. I rather think it is odd that Des Sullivan has so much outrage for a project that isn't even being discussed beyond the table talk stage but the silence from 2012 is still deafening-especially from the powers to be-namely the civil service. lets stick to something that is causing a problem like Muskrat Falls and not redirect our anger towards a pie in the sky proposal that isn't even receiving any government support.
Agree totally with you. But Che's like the typical politician has only being elected premier in mind, no concern for the province or the people, otherwise he would be telling us what he intends to do with the 15$billion boondoggle, but he would rather tell us petty things like 18$million, maybe more votes there. But again it is the penny wise and pound foolish mentality, when are we going to get someone who actually knows the difference between a million and a billion and actually tell and inform the people.just to compare again, if we were to count or spend money at a rate of one dollar a second the 18$ million for marble would take approx. 190 days, counting muskrat 15 $ billion at the same rate would take approx. 480 years.,yes penny wise and pound foolish Ches. The guy at marble probably makes 10 or 20 dollars an hour, the guy at muskrat is hauling down 2 or 3 hundred an hour, and many of his hours are just doing nothing but waiting for the next guy to get out of his way. The guy at marble hopes to bring in a few tourist dollars to the province. NALCOR is just going to increase our hydro rates by 2 or 3times. Maybe it will be moth balled after completion, too expensive to operate. Now let's get a politician that can get his head around that, and tell us his solution, that's the kinda leader and politicians we need. Not the nicle and dime ones. Any fool can give or take away 18 million for a few votes. Who can solve our 15$ billion dollar boondoggle or if we add the net debt of another 15$ billion, that has accumulated over the pass 70 years or so, who can solve our 30$ billion dollar debt???? Come on Ches and all the ches's belly up to the bar and give us some answers of how you intend to tackle that, to give us some hope for the future of our province and people. Amen.
Here’s the link to the west coast mayors press release UG referred to above…
http://www.cornerbrook.com/2017/08/media-advisory-mayors-meet-beothuk-energy-cip-joint-venture-wind-energy-project/
Like a previous commentator said… they’re just like a bunch of naïve little children in need of supervision… like greedy little toddlers whining for another government-funded boondoggle of their very own … with absolutely no thoughts whatsoever as to economic viability or long-term financial consequences for the province. Just like greedy little babies still shitting up their diapers, blissfully unaware… indeed, devil-may-care… as to the brutal financial realities of market-based economics, just so long as they get their own personal hunk of the government-funded pie to gorge themselves on, the financial well-being of the province be damned.
Meanwhile the “Pumpty-Dumpties” of the world wait impatiently in the wings, salivating to have their go at taking NL taxpayers to the cleaners.
Enough to bloody-well give one the dry heaves… I ask you… with such glaring injudiciousness afflicting the so-called “leading citizens” of this province, is it any wonder at all as to its lamentably entropic state?
http://www.thetelegram.com/news/things-in-newfoundland-and-labrador-are-terrible-locke-156788/
Locke has some nerve! He took every line from Nalcor as gospel. and did zero investigation into the demand projections or anything else.
If he had done any research he would have wondered why Nalcor was the only N American utility that had a growing demand curve going up into the future. He would have noticed that Nalcor used a demand estimate not the current industry standard. They did not look forward at changes in demand and efficiency like modern utilities do.
In short Locke was a shameless incompetent huckster masquerading as an economist. He was pivotal in validating the "least cost" lie. He deserves to be pilloried for his disgrace to his profession.
No doubt that Locke, MUN`s chief economist, made the least cost lie seem credible. And he shut out any information that disagreed with his conclusion. General Locke led the charge of the scallywags as to the economics of the scheme.
`Never in the annals of Nfld history has no much harm been done to so many by so few`……to use a familiar phrase, that even Ches Crosbie should like. Maybe he should have used that to be critical of the Muskrat Madness
Crosbie said something on TV, in his leadership speech about `our party, our people and our province`…….could be that `all will be dead` or something, as entirely not inspiring to this resident.
On the face of it, Corner Brook would appear to have missed the opportunity to develop it's inherent sustainable and renewable energy potential; onshore wind, cogeneration from the mill, micro hydro, solar and geothermal. Certainly the development of some of these options would provide net to grid capability. If municipal councils don't seize such opportunities, we will all be a drag on the provincial crown corps, (NALCOR and such). Get a move on CB!
Alas, but the future including Muskrat and its cost will be wasted on the young whilst all the elders speaking here will be history. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Good luck and beat wishes.
As to science fiction and all the energy production miracles of the future, who knows??? Neither matter nor energy can be produced or fabricated but they are inter-convertible, aren't they or are they really??
Your answer is E=MC2
Yeah, I was an MC too once upon a time, works better for the squares though, Brutus.
This video of a pumped hydro system combined with wind power, heat pumps and conservation would have been the best option in NL but alas it is no more due to Muskrat Falls. A perfect site would be one of the old mine sites at Baie Verte Springdale, Buchans, St Lawrence, or Bell Island. The second link is about the development of such an abandoned mine in Ontario being turned into a pumped Hydro site
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGDASBgrIRc&feature=youtu.be
http://www.northlandpower.ca/What-We-Do/Development-Projects/hydro/Marmora_Pumped_Storage.aspx
This link maybe even more interesting:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2017/10/sonnen-to-build-innovative-residential-energy-storage-community-in-the-us.html?cmpid=enl_rew_renewable_energy_news_2017-10-25&email_address=acampbell@nf.sympatico.ca&eid=395862723&bid=1903587
Say you could buy 200,000 dollars worth of Beothuk stock for 10 cents a share, so 2 million shares.
Assets say are Zero, but a scheme that is promoted (something like Muskrat) , and it goes up and down for a while, and you stay in for an expected windfall (the gravy)……and then sinks to 1 cent after 2 years., and finally bail out , after seeing the LIGHT……..you lose 180,000.00
Option 2 , you buy say Royal Bank at 100.00 per share, but you get only 2000 shares, not 2 million like with Beothuk.
The stock does its usual and climbs 9 percent a year, plus a 3 percent dividend………..
Or you can buy just one share of Warren Buffetts stock for say 200,000.00.
It climbs say 15 percent a year, but pays no dividend, as it keeps reinvesting its earnings…….with a history of high earnings over 50 years, and owning many blue chop companies.
The best bet is to but one share, and not the 2000 or 2 million.
Yet most think their best chance is buying the many low cost penny stock.
And you very likely get fleezed.
And that , dear Bruno, is the difference between investing and gambling.
INVESTOR
Follow your logic, and know bank stocks are fairly reliable in going higher in the long run. Don't know much about investing on futures, but think that's where NALCOR lost the 66 million on 1. 8 billion, I think it was. Guess futures are high risk, and if would call that gambling our public money away. What do you say about that kind of investing or gambling.
I stay within the bounds of what I have some experience and success with. hedging etc, while it serves a purpose, I claim no experience.
I imitate Buffett, while buying mostly good Canadian stocks.
My original post said I held VIP, and should read VNP, a company that makes coating for solar panels….part of my 10 percent TAKE A CHANCE rule……….as I believe in the need for renewable energy, even though better returns elsewhere. And Beothuk , while claiming renewable, is not credible, my opinion. UG got it right, and such things need to be pointed out…….we have a long history of scams. I NEVER buy a OIL stock, though banks deal with them…….ethical investing has its limits it seems.
INVESTOR