Following the P.C. Party’s defeat in last
Tuesday’s two by-elections, one might have had some sympathy for Premier Davis
if he had not been part of the Dunderdale and Marshall Governments. Davis had an opportunity to deal with those
years of misrule. He didn’t.
Tuesday’s two by-elections, one might have had some sympathy for Premier Davis
if he had not been part of the Dunderdale and Marshall Governments. Davis had an opportunity to deal with those
years of misrule. He didn’t.
Upon winning the Tory Leadership, Davis should
have dashed for the job, attempted to strike a different tone and set a new
agenda. Instead, he dallied on getting sworn-in, chose a politically
inexperienced Chief of Staff, made a balls of his new Cabinet, signalled the
wrong public policy priorities and proceeded to confirm he was happy with the Government’s
record.
have dashed for the job, attempted to strike a different tone and set a new
agenda. Instead, he dallied on getting sworn-in, chose a politically
inexperienced Chief of Staff, made a balls of his new Cabinet, signalled the
wrong public policy priorities and proceeded to confirm he was happy with the Government’s
record.
Not having caused the current Session of the
House of Assembly to prorogue, he lost a strategic opportunity to assert
additional ideas for a ‘fresh’ image. He
overlooked the fact that the chief function of a Throne Speech is to signal innovation
and renewal to an expectant public.
House of Assembly to prorogue, he lost a strategic opportunity to assert
additional ideas for a ‘fresh’ image. He
overlooked the fact that the chief function of a Throne Speech is to signal innovation
and renewal to an expectant public.
Now, Davis enjoys (sic) three fewer Seats
together with the perception (perhaps, the reality, too) he has brought nothing
to the job. By-elections in Trinity-Bay de Verde and Humber East were lost with
margins larger than those that reported when Dunderdale and Marshall were in
Office. While he can’t take the responsibility for all the damage done by
Dunderdale, his leadership, to date, continues to be a drag on an
intellectually and financially impoverished Government.
together with the perception (perhaps, the reality, too) he has brought nothing
to the job. By-elections in Trinity-Bay de Verde and Humber East were lost with
margins larger than those that reported when Dunderdale and Marshall were in
Office. While he can’t take the responsibility for all the damage done by
Dunderdale, his leadership, to date, continues to be a drag on an
intellectually and financially impoverished Government.
Can Davis start over?
Not likely.
He has a narrow comfort
zone. He needs political expertise to compensate for his
own deficiencies; but Joe Brown is a paramilitary man with the skills required for
a command bureaucracy. The justice and court
house decisions do not speak to voter expectations, either.
zone. He needs political expertise to compensate for his
own deficiencies; but Joe Brown is a paramilitary man with the skills required for
a command bureaucracy. The justice and court
house decisions do not speak to voter expectations, either.
Last week, Davis told the Telegram: “I’m never convinced that a byelection
is reflective of what the people of the province are looking for…”
is reflective of what the people of the province are looking for…”
One by-election loss may not be reflective of
much; but, three are. Seven losses equal a message shouted from the roof tops.
much; but, three are. Seven losses equal a message shouted from the roof tops.
Former Finance Minister Charlene Johnson’s
comments to a CBC reporter, last Tuesday night, might have spoken to Davis’
malady when she expressed being “completely dumbfounded” over her father’s loss
in Trinity-Bay de Verde. Ms. Johnson said, “…she saw the pavement, fire trucks,
municipal infrastructure…this government did so much for these communities and
this is what happens in return…”
comments to a CBC reporter, last Tuesday night, might have spoken to Davis’
malady when she expressed being “completely dumbfounded” over her father’s loss
in Trinity-Bay de Verde. Ms. Johnson said, “…she saw the pavement, fire trucks,
municipal infrastructure…this government did so much for these communities and
this is what happens in return…”
Johnson’s thinking is as archaic and as it is
offensive. It speaks to an attitude which infected the
Williams/Dunderdale/Marshall Cabinets and, because they constitute largely the
same crowd, infects Davis and his Cabinet, too.
For them the attitude is just ‘normal’. In spite of having presided over the best funded government in history, it is not infrastructure but ‘attitude’ that
is emblematic.
offensive. It speaks to an attitude which infected the
Williams/Dunderdale/Marshall Cabinets and, because they constitute largely the
same crowd, infects Davis and his Cabinet, too.
For them the attitude is just ‘normal’. In spite of having presided over the best funded government in history, it is not infrastructure but ‘attitude’ that
is emblematic.
The Tories don’t realize that most of them
won their Districts on the coattails of Danny Williams. While Danny was an
arrogant showman, he had a talent for connecting with voters. Unfortunately, his admirers, including Davis,
failed to understand the limitations of his skill. They learned nothing about his ability to
connect; they merely cashed in on his unseemly cache. Voters may have interpreted Williams’ arrogance
as bravado. But, in Dunderdale and the others,
the attitude had no camouflage.
won their Districts on the coattails of Danny Williams. While Danny was an
arrogant showman, he had a talent for connecting with voters. Unfortunately, his admirers, including Davis,
failed to understand the limitations of his skill. They learned nothing about his ability to
connect; they merely cashed in on his unseemly cache. Voters may have interpreted Williams’ arrogance
as bravado. But, in Dunderdale and the others,
the attitude had no camouflage.
That, in a nutshell, is the Tory
Administration’s undoing.
Administration’s undoing.
Voters love new pavement; they want to see
improvements in their communities and in government funded projects and
services. But such gains do not trump legitimate criticism, secrecy or
corruption.
improvements in their communities and in government funded projects and
services. But such gains do not trump legitimate criticism, secrecy or
corruption.
The public may be less upset with Davis, personally,
than determined to chastise him for his predecessor’s sins. He had one
opportunity to make large and empathetic moves in an attempt to dispel their
ghosts. He tripped up at the start.
than determined to chastise him for his predecessor’s sins. He had one
opportunity to make large and empathetic moves in an attempt to dispel their
ghosts. He tripped up at the start.
The upshot is that the public are eager to
embrace the Liberals; but not because they are ready with new ideas. In the absence of an alternative, the public
just feel safer with them.
embrace the Liberals; but not because they are ready with new ideas. In the absence of an alternative, the public
just feel safer with them.
What is Premier Davis to do?
Likely, the public don’t care as long as he
doesn’t get more reckless, as his woes are compounded. Falling oil prices have illuminated
the government’s irresponsible fiscal management; this third budget deficit, in
a row, is now in the range of $1 billion.
doesn’t get more reckless, as his woes are compounded. Falling oil prices have illuminated
the government’s irresponsible fiscal management; this third budget deficit, in
a row, is now in the range of $1 billion.
The Government’s real problem is not OPEC’s failure
to prop up an oil market, using monopolistic practices illegal here. It’s that drunken
sailors should have no role in fiscal policy.
to prop up an oil market, using monopolistic practices illegal here. It’s that drunken
sailors should have no role in fiscal policy.
do? Essentially, he can do nothing.
Why?
Davis doesn’t ‘understand’ why the Government is unpopular. He doesn’t get it
in the same way that Dunderdale and Marshall didn’t. Not understanding the
problem means he is unable to fix it.
This Administration has earned a distain
reserved for the guilty. The public want the Tories gone.
reserved for the guilty. The public want the Tories gone.
Political Science Associate Professor Kelly Blidook
commented that Davis lacked the “moral authority” to continue. He may have a
point; though it will be the Caucus who will arbitrate if the Administration
will survive much longer. We will look for more defections and resignations.
commented that Davis lacked the “moral authority” to continue. He may have a
point; though it will be the Caucus who will arbitrate if the Administration
will survive much longer. We will look for more defections and resignations.
One other thing is clear: if Davis stays on
the current path, not only his Caucus won’t win a Seat in the next general
election; he won’t win his own.
the current path, not only his Caucus won’t win a Seat in the next general
election; he won’t win his own.
Great summary! Davis is so far in over his head that he can't see the light of day. The people of the province can only hope for damage control until the next election is called. Rumor has it that a spring election may be called prior to the next budget, reason being that they have made such mess of the province's finances, they won't stand a chance once the cat is out of the bag.
While some are skeptical of Dwight Ball's leadership, I take some comfort in his approach of not making promises that cannot be kept. Once the liberals take office, they will have significant challenges. Spending must be reduced and a more realistic approach to budget planning is critical. And last but far from least, they have to tackle the Muskrat Falls fiasco and the less than competent management team at Nalcor.
The reality of 70$ barrel will quickly and effecienty expose the negligence of Williams in increasing public spending in the province. Dunderdale and Davis simply inherited the mess, and were unwilling to make the required changes.
Williams will go down in history as the absolutely worse premier in our province (of those having a tenure of more than 2 years). We have a mess to clean up.
Ball will have a big job to undertake.
Lets cross our fingers that oil will go to levels predicted by Nalcor, when MF was sanctioned.
Ray Guy said it correctly, "….A cardinal rule of journalism is to never ever lay any blame of any kind on the reader. Shag that. I'm old enough now to be beyond rules, censure or the hangman's noose. You, the great Newfoundland voter, are an incorrigible crowd of brain-deads."
As a small business operator NL needed a "conservative" government when oil revenues started to flow. Instead we got NDPC. Williams et al. made a shag of it pure and simple. I would argue that many in the business community were complicit because of their silence. Remember all the standing ovations each time he spoke at the St. John's Board of Trade.
The "energy warehouse" will put us in the "economic poorhouse". Never mind crossing your fingers…there's an economic tsunami headed our way and it's called Muskrat Falls.
Keith Ryan
There is simply no credible scenario for longer term (next 3-5 years) return to oil prices in the range predicted by Government. Fracking will make the US the world's largest oil producer soon, if that hasn't already happened. Natural gas abundance is putting electrical utilities under extreme pressure as the price moves continuously down – currently NEPOOL seems to be showing pricing in the 4 cent range. There is no realistic way that our now stranded gas deposits will be developed.
this isn't the worst thing in the world yet, but it will be. An aging population is shifting into retirement as the "jobs" from the offshore construction end, so we may see less of an indicated unemployment catastrophe, but the harsh bitter truth will show that we were fools to not take that found money and pay down the debt.
I'm ok. I am not dependant on a government pension, so I won't be left dangling when the current round of promises turns out to be profoundly ill advised. but god help us all when the true cost of Muskrat hits and we recognise that there is no market whatsoever, domestically elsewhere in canada, provincially or export market, that will buy it and pay the cost of producing it.
Amen.
Gerald
2 billion spent on MF so far according to Ed Martin. Imagine the cutbacks needed in other services as we keep spending…. 8 billion or more, on this sink hole. Once it was a big deal to waste 20 million on the cucumber scheme. Now we waste 8000 million and hardly a peep. We may have to join the province of Quebec to avoid bankruptsy.
If, indeed, only 2 Billion has been spent so far…all the more reason to pull the plug NOW.
I firmly believe the cancellation of this project is in the long-term best interest of the province but, in the absence of any real transparency, the expenditures thus far could be significantly higher even now.
However, to continue to spend money on this ill-conceived project, is fiscal insanity and I continue to hope for its cancellation.